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Skipjack tuna (SJT) pelagic hotspots in the western North Pacific (WNP) were modelled using fishery and satellite remotely sensed data with Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) models. Our objectives were to model and predict habitat hotspots for SJT and assess the monthly changes in sub-surface temperatures and mixed layer depths at fishing locations. SJT presence-only monthly resolved data, sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a, diffuse attenuation coefficient, sea surface heights and surface wind speed were used to construct ENFA models and generate habitat suitability indices using a short-term dataset from March-November 2004. The suitability indices were then predicted for July-October (2007 and 2008). Monthly aggregated polygons of areas fished by skipjack tuna pole and line vessels were also overlaid on the predicted habitat suitability maps. Distributions of sub-surface temperatures and mixed layer depths (MLD) at fishing locations were also examined. Our results showed good fit for ENFA models, as indicated by the absolute validation index, the contrast validation index and the continuous Boyce index. The predicted hotspots showed varying concurrences when compared with 25-degree polygons derived from fished areas. Northward shifts in SJT hotspots corresponded with declining MLDs from March to September. The MLDs were shallower in summer and deeper in autumn and winter months. The habitat hotspots modeled using ENFA were consistent with the known ecology and seasonal migration pattern of SJT. The findings of this work, derived from a short-term dataset, enable identification of SJT hotspots in the WNP, thus contributing valuable information for future research on SJT habitat prediction models., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Climate change impacts are pronounced at high latitudes, where warming, reduced sea-ice-cover, and ocean acidification affect marine ecosystems. We review climate change impacts on two major gateways into the Arctic: the Bering and Chukchi seas in the Pacific and the Barents Sea and Fram Strait in the Atlantic. We present scenarios of how changes in the physical environment and prey resources may affect commercial fish populations and fisheries in these high-latitude systems to help managers and stakeholders think about possible futures. Predicted impacts include shifts in the spatial distribution of boreal species, a shift from larger, lipid-rich zooplankton to smaller, less nutritious prey, with detrimental effects on fishes that depend on high-lipid prey for overwinter survival, shifts from benthic- to pelagic-dominated food webs with implications for upper trophic levels, and reduced survival of commercially important shellfish in waters that are increasingly acidic. Predicted changes are expected to result in disruptions to existing fisheries, the emergence of new fisheries, new challenges for managing transboundary stocks, and possible conflicts among resource users. Some impacts may be irreversible, more severe, or occur more frequently under anthropogenic climate change than impacts associated with natural variability, posing additional management challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat suitability index ( HSI) models were applied to identify the potential habitat distribution of the neon flying squid ( Ommastrephes bartramii) off the eastern coast of Japan during winter. We used an ocean reanalysis product, a satellite-derived dataset, and commercial fisheries data during 2003-2008 to develop the HSI models, and illustrated the characteristics of the ocean environments at the fishing ground of the neon flying squid, focusing on a typical fishing ground formation event in 2006. The estimated HSI fields of the neon flying squid using three-dimensional (3D) ocean environmental parameters showed a clear relationship between the squid habitat and the edge of a warm core ring south of the Oyashio water; this is considered a key characteristic of fishing ground formation, as noted in Sugimoto and Tameishi (Deep-Sea Research, 39, 1992 and S183). This result suggests that mixing of the warm and nutrient-poor Kuroshio water and the cold and nutrient-rich Oyashio water at the edge of the ring could provide favorable conditions for the foraging of the neon flying squid. The warm water condition in the subsurface layers could be a further advantage to the formation of a stable fishing ground for the neon flying squid. Comparison of the Akaike Information Criteria among a satellite-data-based model, a reanalysis-based model using the same parameters as the satellite-based model, and a reanalysis-based model using 3D ocean environmental parameters, showed an apparent improvement in the performance of the reanalysis-based model using the 3D parameters, reproducing realistic features of the squid fishing ground during the winter of 2006. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events on catches of Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) off Java were evaluated through the use of remotely sensed environmental data (sea-surface-height anomaly ISSHA], sea-surface temperature [SST], and chlorophyll-a concentration), and Bigeye Tuna catch data. Analyses were conducted for the period of 1997-2000, which included the 1997-98 El Nino and 1999-2000 La Nina events. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) was applied to examine oceano- graphic parameters quantitatively. The relationship of those parameters to variations in catch distribution of Bigeye Tuna was explored with a generalized additive model (GAM). The mean hook rate was 0.67 during El Niño and 0.44 during La Nina, and catches were high where SSHA ranged from -21 to 5 cm, SST ranged from 24°C to 27.5°C, and chlorophyll-a concentrations ranged from 0.04 to 0.16 mg m-3. The EOF analysis confirmed that the 1997-98 El Niño affected oceanographic conditions in the EIO off Java. The GAM results indicated that SST was better than the other environmental factors (SSHA and chlorophyll-a concentration) as an oceanographic predictor of Bigeye Tuna catches in the region. According to the GAM predictions, the highest probabilities (70-80%) for Bigeye Tuna catch in 1997-2000 occurred during oceanographic conditions during the 1997-98 El Niño event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little is known about the survival rate of wild masu salmon Oncorhynchus masou. To examine the effects of smolt length and migration timing on the recovery rate of wild masu salmon, we reanalyzed past tagging and recovery data (1993-1994). The tagging study was conducted in the Shokanbetsu River, northern Japan; 863 wild masu salmon smolts were captured, tagged, and released in a downstream site, and a total of 19 fish were recovered in coastal fisheries and in the natal river the following year. The data were analyzed by a logistic regression analysis with recapture as a response variable and tagging date and smolt length as explanatory variables; the tagging date had a significant effect on the recapture rate, whereas the effect of smolt size was not significant. Despite the small number of recaptures, this study indicates that migration timing is a factor affecting the marine survival of wild masu salmon smolts, although this conclusion has been repeatedly documented for other species of Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]