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Understanding of the processes affecting recruitment of commercially important fish species is one of the major challenges in fisheries science. Towards this aim, we investigated the relation between North Sea hydrography (temperature and salinity) and fish stock variables (recruitment, spawning stock biomass and pre-recruitment survival index) for 9 commercially important fishes using spatially-resolved cross-correlation analysis. We used high-resolution (0.2° × 0.2°) hydrographic data fields matching the maximal temporal extent of the fish population assessments (1948-2013). Our approach allowed for the identification of regions in the North Sea where environmental variables seem to be more influential on the fish stocks, as well as the regions of a lesser or nil influence. Our results confirmed previously demonstrated negative correlations between temperature and recruitment of cod and plaice and identified regions of the strongest correlations (German Bight for plaice and north-western North Sea for cod). We also revealed a positive correlation between herring spawning stock biomass and temperature in the Orkney-Shetland area, as well as a negative correlation between sole pre-recruitment survival index and temperature in the German Bight. A strong positive correlation between sprat stock variables and salinity in the central North Sea was also found. To our knowledge the results concerning correlations between North Sea hydrography and stocks' dynamics of herring, sole and sprat are novel. The new information about spatial distribution of the correlation provides an additional help to identify mechanisms underlying these correlations. As an illustration of the utility of these results for fishery management, an example is provided that incorporates the identified environmental covariates in stock-recruitment models., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Mixed fisheries occur when multiple species are caught together and harvested by multiple fleets. The biological and technical interactions in mixed fisheries distinguish them from single-species fisheries, which makes them challenging for their assessment and management. The present knowledge synthesis reviewed pertinent policy documents and academic databases for twenty-three mixed fisheries worldwide; aiming to characterize attributes of mixed fisheries, provide overviews on their assessment and management, assess current research progress, and identify key factors that impact management effectiveness. Mixed fisheries were found to exhibit varying characteristics worldwide, rendering the implementation of universal management solutions unlikely. While mixed fisheries stock assessment and management are mostly based on single-species approaches, additional mixed fisheries considerations were incorporated at various scales, including multispecies, sector-specific, fishery, and ecosystem levels. Ecosystem-wide management considerations were the most significant contributor to improved management performance in terms of conserving stock biomass and preventing overfishing, underscoring the merits of the Ecosystem-based Fisheries Management (EBFM) principle. Mixed fisheries research demonstrated regional and thematic variations, with the most popular topics addressing immediate and practical management concerns, and the less frequently discussed topics offering valuable insights related to climate change and socio-ecological perspectives. The synthesis identified the available management approaches for mixed fisheries from different jurisdictions, yet their diversity highlighted a lack of global consensus on best management practices. Future mixed fisheries will benefit from balancing tradeoffs between ecological and socio-economic needs, implementing EBFM, adopting diverse and harmonized management tools, and prioritizing monitoring efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the European Union (EU), the ecosystem approach to fisheries is implemented through several directives and polices, which are overarched by the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). The MSFD requires the assessment of the environmental status of exploited fish and shellfish stocks, among others, to advise the EU Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) on sustainable catch options. The stock assessments for the CFP and the MSFD are supposed to be congruent, yet they differ in several substantial subjects. While the annual CFP assessment is based on two indicators, fishing mortality (F) and spawning stock biomass (SSB), in its Descriptor 3 (D3) the MSFD requires the assessment of three criteria (F , SSB, and age or size structure) within a six year period. Assessing exploited fish and shellfish stocks under the MSFD by using existing CFP assessments has therefore been a half-completed task, which had to be fulfilled by the member states of the EU. This paper suggests six easy steps, referred to as "quick wins" (QW), which are based on existing information from CFP stock assessments. The implementation of these six QW would allow for assessments of exploited fish and shellfish stocks that are compliant to D3. These QW are to (i) assess length/age structure within a stock, (ii) analyse and assess selectivity by fisheries, (iii) use all available information to assess a stock, (iv) use response indicators to assess environmental targets, (v) provide integrated stock-specific advice, and (vi) provide assessments with a mid-term perspective over a-period of six years. International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) combines the infrastructure and expertise to produce stock-specific assessment products tailored to the requirements of MSFD D3. Thereby, ICES could provide a valuable service to EU member states in the north-east Atlantic region by providing scientifically validated, quality-assured, and MSFD-compliant single-stock assessment products. This would be a big advancement towards implementing the ecosystem approach to fisheries management within Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The advance of ecosystem-based fisheries management worldwide has made scientific advice on fisheries related questions more complex. However, despite the need to take interactions between fish stocks, and between stocks and their environment into account, multispecies and ecosystem models are still hardly used as a basis for fishery advice. Although reasons are numerous, the lack of high-level guidance for target-oriented skill assessments of such models contributes to the mistrust to use such models for advice. In this study, we propose a framework of guiding questions for a pragmatic and target-oriented skill assessment. The framework is relevant for all models irrespective of their complexity and approach. It starts with general questions on the advice purpose itself, the type of model(s) and data available for performance testing. After this, the credibility of the hindcasts are evaluated. A special emphasis is finally put on testing predictive skills. The skill assessment framework proposed provides a tool to evaluate a model's suitability for the purpose of providing specific advice and aims to avoid the bad practice of incomplete skill assessments. In the case of multiple models available, it can facilitate the evaluation or choosing of the best model(s) for a given advice product and intends to ensure a level playing field between models of different complexities. The suite of questions proposed is an important step to improve the quality of advice products for a successful implementation of ecosystem-based fisheries management. • Lack of high-level guidance for skill assessments contributes to the mistrust to use more complex models for fisheries advice. • A framework of guiding questions for a pragmatic and target-oriented skill assessment is proposed. • The framework intends to ensure a level playing field between models of different complexities. • The framework is an important step for a successful implementation of ecosystem approaches to fisheries management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The shape of the length frequency distribution (LFD) is an important input for stock assessments and one of the most important features in studies of fish population dynamics, providing estimates of growth parameters. In practice, oversampling may occur when sampling commercially important species. At times of more and more limited resources, the length sample size can be optimized at some stages of national or regional sampling programmes, without reducing the quality of stock assessments. The main objective of this study is to demonstrate a general distribution-free methodological approach for an optimization of sample size developed as an alternative to both analytical and bootstrap approaches. A novel framework to identify the reduced but still informative sample and to quantify the (dis) similarity between reduced and original samples is proposed. The identification procedure is based on the concept of reference subsample, which represents a theoretical minimal representative subsample that despite smaller sample size still preserves a reasonably precise LFD for certain species. The difference between the original sample and the reference subsample called admissible dissimilarity value (ADV) serves as the upper threshold and can be used to quantify the reliability of derived subsamples. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to validate the approach under various LFD shapes. We illustrate in case studies how ADV can support to evaluate adequate sampling effort. The case studies focus on length samples from the German commercial vessels fishing for North Sea cod (Gadus morhua). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In marine ecosystems, maximum sustainable yield considerations are affected by any substantial changes that occur in the top and bottom compartments of the food-web. This study explores how the southern North Sea’s fisheries may need to adjust their fishing efforts to maintain optimum yields of sole, plaice, cod and brown shrimps under increased marine mammal populations and a reduced primary productivity. We constructed plausible scenarios of ongoing food-web changes using the results of Bayesian age-structured population models to estimate carrying capacities of harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) and grey seals (Halichoerus grypus). Losses in primary productivity were predicted by lower trophic level ecosystem models. These scenarios were implemented in a food-web model of the southern North Sea. For each scenario, we sought mixed-fleet fishing efforts that would deliver maximum yields of sole, plaice, cod and brown shrimp combined. We also did so for a baseline run with unaltered mammal and primary production, and compared the differences in optimal fishing strategies, predicted yields, and states of the stocks between the scenarios. We found stocks and yields to be far more sensitive to changes in primary productivity than to increased marine mammal predation. The latter predominantly impacted cod, and even benefitted brown shrimps compared to the baseline run. Under 30% reduced primary productivity, fishing efforts had to be reduced by 50% to still provide maximum yields, whereas the marine mammal scenario induced no need to adjust the fishing regime. This draws attention to the potential gains of incorporating bottom-up processes into long-term management considerations, while marine mammal predation may be less of a concern, in particular for flatfish fisheries in the North Sea, and may even benefit shrimp trawlers because of reduced predation on shrimp from fish predators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an increasing need for marine spatial planning in the North Sea given the multiple uses with competing objectives. Plans to increase renewable energy production by establishing offshore wind farms (OWFs) are likely to coincide with existing and planned marine protected areas (MPAs), with obvious incompatibilities relating to conservation goals. Both will restrict fishing activities to varying degrees, thus a framework is needed to assess possible trade-offs to differing stakeholders and ecosystem health. Using a spatially-explicit trophic model, ecosystem response to different types of spatial closures to fisheries was evaluated using a variety of indicators relating to ecosystem health and fisheries productivity in the southern part of the North Sea. Additionally, hypothetical MPAs designated with specific ecological objectives in mind were tested. Scenario outcomes suggest that closures may need to be accompanied with additional fisheries management measures to avoid unintended negative impacts outside the closed areas. Furthermore, size and placement of spatial closures are important factors influencing overall benefits and losses in terms of ecological health and fisheries yield. One particular hypothetical large-scale closure, designed with the goal of protecting areas with high biodiversity, performed better in terms of indicators and trade-offs than the more fragmented, currently planned and existing closures. Although model outcomes have to be treated with care, the spatially-explicit food web modeling approach will likely aid in providing a more holistic evaluation of trade-offs between conservation objectives and fishing activities, which should contribute to a more target-oriented framework for the evaluation of closed areas. • Positive impact of fishing exclusion on ecological indicators inside closed area. • Fishing effort reduction needed to counterbalance effects of effort redistributions. • Placement and size of closure most important. • Trade-offs not only between sectors, but also within food web. • Closure of area with low fishing effort and high protective value performed best. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most important goals in current fisheries management is to maintain or restore stocks above levels that can produce the maximum sustainable yield (MSY). However, it may not be feasible to achieve MSY simultaneously for multiple species because of trade-offs that result from interactions between species, mixed fisheries and the multiple objectives of stakeholders. The premise in this study is that MSY is a concept that needs adaptation, not wholesale replacement. The approach chosen to identify trade-offs and stakeholder preferences involved a process of consulting and discussing options with stakeholders as well as scenario modelling with bio-economic and multi-species models. It is difficult to intuitively anticipate the consequences of complex trade-offs and it is also complicated to address them from a political point of view. However, scenario modelling showed that the current approach of treating each stock separately and ignoring trade-offs may result in unacceptable ecosystem, economic or social effects in North Sea fisheries. Setting F MSY as a management target without any flexibility for compromises may lead to disappointment for some of the stakeholders. To treat F MSY no longer as a point estimate but rather as a “Pretty Good Yield” within sustainable ranges was seen as a promising way forward to avoid unacceptable outcomes when trying to fish all stocks simultaneously at F MSY . This study gives insights on how inclusive governance can help to reach consensus in difficult political processes, and how science can be used to make informed decisions inside a multi-dimensional trade-off space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing interest in bioeconomic models as tools for understanding pathways of fishery behaviour in order to assess the impact of alternative policies on natural resources. A model system is presented that combines stochastic age-structured population dynamics with complex fisheries economics. Explicitly, the economic response of fleet segments to changes in stock development is analysed by applying observed values and stochastic recruitment. The optimization of net profits determines the fishing effort and the investment and disinvestment behaviour of fleet segments, which, in turn, affect the level of catch rates and discards. This tool was applied to the North Sea saithe fishery, where ICES re-evaluated the existing EU–Norway management plan, focusing on biological reference points only. Two scenarios were tested with alternative harvest control rules and then contrasted with one unregulated scenario with no quotas and driven by optimizing the net profit of the whole fleet. The model showed the success of both harvest control rules in rebuilding the stock and the associated costs to the fleets in terms of maximal 21% reduction in net profits, 21% reduction in crew wages and 11% reduction in fleet size in the midterm (2007–2015). In the long term (2022), successful stock recovery coincided with net profits almost equalling that of the unrestricted fishery. The model is highly sensitive to the parameter values but can be used strategically, providing a qualitative understanding of the anticipated relative changes. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]