Search

The Precautionary Approach to Fisheries Management requires an assessment of the impact of uncertainty on the risk of achieving management objectives. However, the main quantities, such as spawning stock biomass (SSB) and fish mortality (F), used in management metrics cannot be directly observed. This requires the use of models to provide guidance, for which there are three paradigms: the best assessment, model ensemble, and Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE). It is important to validate the models used to provide advice. In this study, we demonstrate how stock assessment models can be validated using a diagnostic toolbox, with a specific focus on prediction skill. Prediction skill measures the precision of a predicted value, which is unknown to the model, in relation to its observed value. By evaluating the accuracy of model predictions against observed data, prediction skill establishes an objective framework for accepting or rejecting model hypotheses, as well as for assigning weights to models within an ensemble. Our analysis uncovers the limitations of traditional stock assessment methods. Through the quantification of uncertainties and the integration of multiple models, our objective is to improve the reliability of management advice considering the complex interplay of factors that influence the dynamics of fish stocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growth and maximum age are two key parameters that inform resilience of fish populations to exploitation. Existing information on those for greater weever inhabiting the eastern North Sea is based on the analysis of whole otoliths. Here, we present a reanalysis using sectioned otoliths. The results reveal a different growth pattern and a higher maximum age than that previously reported. The higher maximum age makes greater weever populations more vulnerable to exploitation. Such information can serve as a basis for the estimation of the growth curve that can be used for future assessment of the species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Larger and older fish contribute disproportionately to spawning and play an important role in the replenishment of exploited stocks. Fishing often removes specific size‐ and age‐classes, with direct impacts on stock productivity and population resilience. Despite this, fisheries advice is commonly based on estimates of spawning stock biomass (SSB) and fishing mortality (F) and makes little reference to the importance of size and/or age structure. Consequently, there is a need for indicators of size and/or age structure to better inform fisheries management and help assess global sustainability goals. Here, we introduce a new age‐based indicator ABIMSY that monitors age structure relative to the equilibrium age structure at FMSY. We apply this new indicator to 72 commercially important stocks in the Northeast Atlantic, covering 26 species, which collectively contributed 86% of all commercial catches in the region in 2019. We estimate that 62% (45 stocks) currently have proportionally fewer older fish relative to FMSY conditions, whereas 38% (27 stocks) have proportionally more older fish; we also note patterns with respect to geographic area and taxonomic family. Simulation testing demonstrated that ABIMSY is responsive to overfishing and generally tracks (with high sensitivity and specificity) a common measure of stock depletion, SSB relative to BMSY. Throughout, we show that ABIMSY provides information on the age structure of exploited stocks that is complementary to conventional reference points for SSB and F. Further, the framework used to estimate ABIMSY make it well placed for integration into current advisory frameworks on fisheries management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatially sensitive management built on detailed biological and socio-economic knowledge is required to establish sound fishing regulations and to avoid extinction of small coastal populations of fish and shellfish. Highly productive isolated populations of several commercial species have historically inhabited the Swedish west coast, but during the past century these populations have been depleted by fisheries and with no sign of recovery. Since 1999 several fisheries regulations and different stakeholder co-management initiatives have flourished along the Swedish coast of the Skagerrak. They aimed to facilitate the recovery of collapsed local stocks but the established regulations failed to identify and restrict the main sources of mortality acting on local stocks and they have thus been ineffective to promote the recovery. Furthermore, regulations have operated on the weakest among stakeholders (e.g.. recreational fishers), which have minor influence over management, and the restrictions have been imposed without providing any data which supported the choice (i.e. the “easy restriction” syndrome). In line with the general “spirit” of recent Swedish fishery management, we conclude that managers, without the disapproval of Swedish scientists, have circumvented limitations which should address the largest mortality factor, i.e. the commercial fishery. The regulations presently in place, have been politically uncontroversial and easy to implement, but have been highly unsuccessful. We therefore suggest that stakeholders, including politicians, should start focusing on more effective and science-based management and less on what is politically attractive if Swedish citizens shall have a chance to witness the recovery of their once flourishing coastal populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative importance of exploitation rate and environmental variability in generating fluctuations of harvested populations is a key issue in academic ecology as well as population management. We studied how the eastern Baltic cod ( Gadus morhua) is affected by fishing and environmental variation by using a newly developed single species state-space model. Survey data and auxiliary environmental data were used to estimate the model parameters. The model was then used to predict future development of the eastern Baltic cod under different fishing mortalities and abiotic conditions. Abiotic condition was represented by an index: reproductive volume which is the volume of water suitable (in terms of salinity and oxygen content) for the successful development of the early life stages of Baltic cod. The model included direct density dependence, fishing, and a lagged effect of reproductive volume. Our analysis showed that fishing rate is approximately three times more important than reproductive volume in explaining the population dynamics. Furthermore, our model suggests either under- or over-compensatory dynamics depending on the reproductive volume and long term catch levels. It follows that fishing can either reduce or increase temporal oscillations of the cod stock depending on whether the dynamics is over- or undercompensatory, respectively. The sustainable level of fishing rate is however dependent on reproductive volume. Our model predicts a dual role of fishing rate, stabilizing when reproductive volume is high and destabilizing when it is low. Exploitation rate may therefore increase or decrease the risk of the population of cod dropping below a given biomass reference point depending on the environmental conditions, which has practical implications for fisheries management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and anthropogenic disturbances may affect marine populations and ecosystems through multiple pathways. In this study we present a framework in which we integrate existing models and knowledge on basic regulatory processes to investigate the potential impact of future scenarios of fisheries exploitation and climate change on the temporal dynamics of the central Baltic herring stock. Alternative scenarios of increasing sea surface temperature and decreasing salinity of the Baltic Sea from a global climate model were combined with two alternative fishing scenarios, and their direct and ecosystem-mediated effects (i.e., through predation by cod and competition with sprat) on the herring population were evaluated for the period 2010-2050. Gradual increase in temperature has a positive impact on the long-term productivity of the herring stock, but it has the potential to enhance the recovery of the herring stock only in combination with sustainable fisheries management (i.e., Fmsy). Conversely, projections of herring spawning stock biomass ( SSB) were generally low under elevated fishing mortality levels ( Fhigh), comparable with those experienced by the stock during the 1990s. Under the combined effects of long-term warming and high fishing mortality uncertainty in herring SSB projections was higher and increasing for the duration of the forecasts, suggesting a synergistic effect of fishery exploitation and climate forcing on fish populations dynamics. Our study shows that simulations of long-term fish dynamics can be an informative tool to derive expectations of the potential long-term impact of alternative future scenarios of exploitation and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How climatic variability and anthropogenic pressures interact to influence recruitment is a key factor in achieving sustainable resource management. However, the combined effects of these pressures can make it difficult to detect non-stationary interactions or shifts in the relationships with recruitment. Here we examine the links between climate and Irish Sea cod recruitment during a period of declining spawning stock biomass ( SSB). Specifically, we test for a shift in the relationship between recruitment, SSB and climate by comparing an additive (generalized additive model, GAM) and non-additive threshold model ( TGAM). The relationship between recruitment success, SSB and the climatic driver, sea surface temperature, was best described by the TGAM, with a threshold identified between recruitment and SSB at approximately 7900 t. The analysis suggests a threshold shift in the relationship between recruitment and SSB in Irish Sea cod, with cod recruitment being more sensitive to climatic variability during the recent low SSB regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through the history of ecology, fluctuations of populations have been a dominating topic, and endogenous causes of fluctuations and oscillations have been recognized and studied for more than 80 years. Here we analyzed an historical dataset, covering more than 130 years, of European lobster (Homarus gammarus) catches. The data shows periodic fluctuations, which are first dampened and then disappear over time. The disappearance of the periodicity coincided with a substantial increase in fishing effort and the oscillations have not reappeared in the time series. The shifting baseline syndrome has changed our perception of not only the status of the stock, but also the regulating pressures. We describe the transition of a naturally regulated lobster population into a heavily exploited fisheries controlled stock. This is shown by the incorporation of environmental and endogenous processes in generalized additive models, autocorrelation functions and periodicity analyses of time-series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The performance of the EU long-term management plan for cod stocks, in force since 2009, is analysed focusing on the human and institutional factors. The plan operates through landings quotas (TACs) and effort restrictions following a Harvest Control Rule, and deploys a novel instrument allowing Member States to ‘buy back’ or increase fishing effort for fleet segments engaged in cod-avoidance measures. The stipulated fishing mortality reductions have not been achieved. On the positive side, the ‘buy-back’ instrument has led to increased uptake of selective gear and implementation of permanent and real-time temporary closures. On the negative side, ignoring the dimension of fishers as reactive agents in the design, the impact assessment, and the annual implementation of the measures has contributed to the failure to adequately implement the plan and achieve its objectives. The main problem is that the landings quotas taken in a mixed fishery did not limit catches because fishers were incentivised to continue fishing and discard overquota catch while quota for other species was available. The effort limitations intended to reduce this effect were insufficient to adequately limit fishing mortality in targeted fisheries, although fishers experienced them as prohibiting the full uptake of other quotas. Recommendations for future plans include (i) management through catch rather than landings quotas, (ii) the internalisation of the costs of exceeding quotas, (iii) use of more selective gear types, (iv) the development of appropriate metrics as a basis for regulatory measures and for evaluations, (v) participatory governance, (vi) fishery-based management, (vii) flexibility in fishing strategy at vessel level. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Recent analyses of historical data of fish abundance and distribution have shown the importance of a long temporal perspective in the evaluation of the current status of fish populations, but pose numerous difficulties such as fragmentation and inhomogeneities in the amount of available information in space and time. Using mixed-effects models in a multiscale analysis, we identified an appropriate spatiotemporal scale of investigation of a high-quality, spatially explicit historical data set, and we reconstructed the long-term spatial dynamics of Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) in the Kattegat-Skagerrak along the 20th century. We identified a northern and southern main aggregation of adult cod in the study area, corresponding to the Skagerrak portion of the North Sea and the Kattegat cod stocks, respectively. The stocks showed specificities in their spatial dynamics, but common extensive loss of coastal aggregations during the last decades when only 13% (Kattegat) and 35% (Skagerrak) of the estimated early century cod biomass was left. Our reconstruction showed that the collapse of the cod stocks in the area followed the peak in landings in the 1960s-1970s, suggesting that the postwar development of the industrial fisheries played a major role in the decrease of local abundances and disappearance of local adult cod aggregations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Pelagic fish stocks in the Java Sea have been exploited intensively since the beginning of the 1970s. However, due to the effect of increased fishing power of the fleets and the changing nature of spatial and temporal distribution of the fishing effort, assessment of stock trends based on commercial data of catch and effort requires the standardization of both effort and catch data. Here we present the first attempt to reconstruct a standardized time series of commercial catch per unit of effort (CPUE) for the main pelagic species exploited by the purse seine fleet in the Java Sea. The results showed that all the stocks analysed have largely declined since the beginning of the 1990s. For bigeye scad, Indian mackerel and sardine, current estimates are only between 3 and 19% of the maximum observed value while round scads and spotted sardine biomass estimates lie between 18 and 34%. However, our assumptions about the effect of lamp power and level of creeping and the fact that the influence of fish density on catchability and the effect of targeting were not taken into account thus observed decline is a rather conservative estimate of the real decline of the stocks. If effective management actions are not put in place as a matter of urgency in the Java Sea for small pelagic fisheries, one runs the risk of adding those species to the long list of overexploited stocks of the world oceans. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The article presents a research on the reconstruction of the stock dynamics for turbot Psetta maxima L. during a century in Kattegat-Skagerrak. The study established a semi-complete standardized time series of spatial distribution, body size, and biomass remodeled for turbot, based on the standardized surveys from 1925 to 2007. The study indicates that the biomass went down by about 86% on the time series, the body size has reduced by 20 cm, and some of the populations in the northern part have disappeared.

The Baltic Sea ecosystem has undergone large changes during the last two decades, including a severe reduction in cod and herring biomass but, at the same time, a large increase in sprat abundance. The lower trophic levels of the Baltic Sea also changed due to environmental fluctuations, including variations in salinity and in volume of oxygenated water. In this apparently shifting environment, the conditions of herring and sprat have undergone large inter-annual variations during the past 15–20 years. In this study, we explore how abiotic factors (i.e. salinity and temperature) and biotic factors (biomass of the copepods Pseudocalanus elongatus, Temora longicornis, Acartia spp. and of cladocerans as well as clupeid abundance) in different seasons (May and August) affect clupeid body condition. Our analyses suggest that data of zooplankton biomass and abiotic factors in August have higher predictive power than May data. Although our analysis suggests that salinity (a bottom-up process) has an effect on sprat condition, total abundance of clupeids (a top-down process) is by far the most significant predictor of both herring and sprat condition. The strong correlation between clupeid abundance and total zooplankton biomass points to food competition and to top-down control by herring and sprat on common food resources. Furthermore, clupeid condition co-varied with the changes in the weight of zooplankton in the stomachs, which further suggest food competition being the main mechanism behind the changes in clupeid condition during the last two decades. Hence, our results are not in agreement with most of the current literature that has suggested that clupeid growth is regulated by environmentally mediated bottom-up processes acting on the abundance of copepods. This is, to our knowledge, the first evidence of food resources mediated density-dependent fish growth in a large marine ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eastern Baltic cod is an example of a fish stock where fishing pressure has substantially declined after decades of intensive exploitation. However, in contrast to the expected improvements in stock status, stock productivity has concurrently declined to a historic low level. Targeted fisheries for the eastern Baltic cod were recently banned. However, at present low growth and high natural mortality, the stock biomass is projected to remain low, even in the absence of fishing. Thus, the future development in this stock and its potential recovery are largely dependent on ecosystem drivers likely contributing to the presently poor state of the cod stock (e.g. oxygen conditions, spatial distribution of prey species, abundance of marine mammals). Some of these ecosystem drivers and associated impacts on cod may be possible to influence by management measures, which are however not straightforward to implement. Moreover, scientific knowledge to guide management decisions in a complex ecosystem context is lagging behind. The Baltic cod case exemplifies the complexity of questions emerging for management as well as scientific advice under rapidly changing ecosystem conditions, where traditional fisheries management alone may have a limited potential to rebuild the stock. • Pronounced decline in stock productivity overshadowed the effect of reduced fishing. • Traditional fisheries management has a limited potential to recover the cod stock. • Managing ecosystem drivers is not trivial and scientific guidance is lagging behind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A letter to the editor is presented in response to the article regarding the dreadful situation of fisheries and fish stocks in Europe in the 2011 issue.

Integrated stock assessments consist of fitting several sources of catch, abundance, and auxiliary biological information to estimate parameters of equations that describe the population dynamics of fish stocks. Stock assessments are subject to uncertainty, and it is a common practice to characterize uncertainty using alternative hypotheses and assumptions within an ensemble of models to develop scientific advice for fisheries management. In this context, there is the need to assign levels of plausibility to each of the combinations of factors that ultimately reflect the uncertainty on different biological and fishery processes. In this study, we describe and apply a model diagnostic to identify trends in process error in recruitment deviation estimates within ensembles of integrated assessment models of tropical tunas. We demonstrate that assessment model ensembles for tropical tunas contain distinct scenarios with significant trends in process error that are overlooked, with the associated implications for fisheries management. Using the Indian Ocean yellowfin as a case study, we found that trends in recruitment deviates are linked to extreme productivity scenarios which strongly diverged in scale from deterministic models fitted without recruitment deviates. This indicates that when recruitment deviates show an increasing trend, these can compensate for the loss of biomass in periods of high catch beyond the surplus production. In these cases, variation in recruitment is not a random process, but rather takes the function of a compensatory, systematic driver in productivity. Significant trends in recruitment were positively correlated with increased standard deviations and auto-correlation coefficient, non-random residual pattern in fits to abundance indices, and particularly poor performance of the Age-Structured Production Model (ASPM) diagnostic. We suggest that trends in recruitment deviates can be caused by misspecification of the biological parameters used as fixed values in integrated assessment models. The process error diagnostic described here can provide a statistical criterion in support for hypotheses and assumptions when using ensembles of models to develop fisheries management advice. • We apply a method to identify trends in process error in fisheries assessments. • The assessments of tropical tunas contain trends in process error. • Trends in process error are overlooked and have management implications. • Trends of recruitment deviates compensate loss of biomass in periods of high catch. • The method provides statistical support for assumptions within ensembles of models. • Trends in recruitment deviates are correlated with poor diagnostics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]