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Studies using remote sensing data for fire danger prediction have primarily relied on fire ignitions data to develop fire danger indices (FDIs). However, these data may only represent conditions suitable for ignition but may not represent fire danger conditions causing escalating fire size. The fire-related response variable's scalability is a key factor that forms a basis for an FDI to include a broader range of fire danger conditions. Remote sensing derived fire size is a scalable fire characteristic encapsulating all possible fire sizes that previously occurred in the landscape, including extreme fire events. Consequently, we propose a new FDI that uses remote sensing derived fire size as a response variable. We computed fire sizes from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instrument burned area. We applied random forest (RF) and logistic regression (LR) to develop the FDI for Australia. RF models performed better than LR, and the higher predicted probabilities demonstrated higher chances for ignited fires to be escalated to larger fire sizes at a regional scale across Australia. However, the predicted probabilities cannot be related to the specific range of fire sizes due to data limitations. Further research with higher temporal and spatial resolution data of both the response and predictor variables can help establish a better relationship between a specific range of fire sizes and the predicted probabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the use of a recently developed satellite-based vegetation optical depth (VOD) data set to estimate fire severity and carbon emission over Australian tropical savannahs. VOD is sensitive to the dynamics of all aboveground vegetation and available nearly every two days. For areas burned during 2003-2010, we calculated the VOD change (ΔVOD) pre- and post-fire and the associated loss in the above ground biomass carbon. ΔVOD agreed well with the Normalized Burn Ratio change (ΔNBR) which is the metric used to estimate fire severity and carbon loss compared well with modelled emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). We found that the ΔVOD and ΔNBR are generally linearly related. The Pearson correlation coefficients (r) between VOD- and GFED-based fire carbon emissions for monthly and annual total estimates are very high, 0.92 and 0.96, respectively. A key feature of fire carbon emissions is the strong inter-annual variation, ranging from 21.1 Mt in 2010 to 84.3 Mt in 2004. This study demonstrates that a reasonable estimate of fire severity and carbon emissions can be achieved in a timely manner based on multiple satellite observations over Australian tropical savannahs, which can be complementary to the currently used approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]