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Background: Onchocerciasis is endemic in 14 of Sierra Leone's 16 districts with high prevalence (47–88.5%) according to skin snips at baseline. After 11 rounds of mass treatment with ivermectin with good coverage, an impact assessment was conducted in 2017 to assess the progress towards eliminating onchocerciasis in the country. Methods: A cluster survey was conducted, either integrated with lymphatic filariasis (LF) transmission assessment survey (TAS) or standalone with the LF TAS sampling strategy in 12 (now 14) endemic districts. Finger prick blood samples of randomly selected children in Grades 1–4 were tested in the field using SD Bioline Onchocerciasis IgG4 rapid tests. Results: In total, 17,402 children aged 4–19 years in 177 schools were tested, and data from 17,364 children aged 4–14 years (14,230 children aged 5–9 years) were analyzed. Three hundred forty-six children were confirmed positive for Ov-16 IgG4 antibodies, a prevalence of 2.0% (95% CI 1.8–2.2%) in children aged 4–14 years with prevalence increasing with age. Prevalence in boys (2.4%; 95% CI 2.1–2.7%) was higher than in girls (1.6%; 95% CI 1.4–1.9%). There was a trend of continued reduction from baseline to 2010. Using data from children aged 5–9 years, overall prevalence was 1.7% (95% CI 1.5–1.9%). The site prevalence ranged from 0 to 33.3% (median prevalence = 0.0%): < 2% in 127 schools, 2 to < 5% in 34 schools and ≥ 5% in 16 schools. There was a significant difference in average prevalence between districts. Using spatial analysis, the Ov-16 IgG4 antibody prevalence was predicted to be < 2% in coastal areas and in large parts of Koinadugu, Bombali and Tonkolili Districts, while high prevalence (> 5%) was predicted in some focal areas, centered in Karene, Kailahun and Moyamba/Tonkolili. Conclusions: Low Ov-16 IgG4 antibody prevalence was shown in most areas across Sierra Leone. In particular, low seroprevalence in children aged 5–9 years suggests that the infection was reduced to a low level after 11 rounds of treatment intervention. Sierra Leone has made major progress towards elimination of onchocerciasis. However, attention must be paid to those high prevalence focal areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Onchocerciasis, also known as "river blindness", is caused by the bite of infected female blackflies (genus Simuliidae) that transmit the parasite Onchocerca volvulus. A high onchocerciasis microfarial load increases the risk to develop epilepsy in children between the ages of 3 and 18 years. In resource-limited settings in Africa where onchocerciasis has been poorly controlled, high numbers of onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy (OAE) are reported. We use mathematical modeling to predict the impact of onchocerciasis control strategies on the incidence and prevalence of OAE. Methodology: We developed an OAE model within the well-established mathematical modelling framework ONCHOSIM. Using Latin-Hypercube Sampling (LHS), and grid search technique, we quantified transmission and disease parameters using OAE data from Maridi County, an onchocerciasis endemic area, in southern Republic of South Sudan. Using ONCHOSIM, we predicted the impact of ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) and vector control on the epidemiology of OAE in Maridi. Principal findings: The model estimated an OAE prevalence of 4.1% in Maridi County, close to the 3.7% OAE prevalence reported in field studies. The OAE incidence is expected to rapidly decrease by >50% within the first five years of implementing annual MDA with good coverage (≥70%). With vector control at a high efficacy level (around 80% reduction of blackfly biting rates) as the sole strategy, the reduction is slower, requiring about 10 years to halve the OAE incidence. Increasing the efficacy levels of vector control, and implementing vector control simultaneously with MDA, yielded better results in preventing new cases of OAE. Conclusions/Significances: Our modeling study demonstrates that intensifying onchocerciasis eradication efforts could substantially reduce OAE incidence and prevalence in endemic foci. Our model may be useful for optimizing OAE control strategies. Author summary: Onchocerciasis is a parasitic disease caused by the filarial worm Onchocerca volvulus, which is transmitted by Simuliidae black flies. This disease is most common in Africa and South America. Onchocerca volvulus is thought to infect approximately 35 million Africans these days. Adult female worms infect people and form subcutaneous nodules, releasing thousands of microfilariae per day, causing itching, dermatitis, blindness, and epilepsy. Despite the fact that the association between onchocerciasis and epilepsy was already mentioned in a study from Mexico in 1938, this association was only reported around 1991 in Africa in the Mbam valley in Cameroon. Onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy (OAE) is characterised by seizures that start between the ages of 3 and 18 years in previously healthy children with a high degree of O. volvulus infection. Raising awareness about OAE will increase adherence to community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI), particularly in high-prevalence areas, while also motivating funders and stakeholders to keep fighting onchocerciasis. Here, we create an OAE model within the framework of ONCHOSIM that is parametrized using South Sudan data and investigate how different control measures such as CDTI and vector control might help reduce OAE in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mass drug administration (MDA) is the main strategy towards lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination. Progress is monitored by assessing microfilaraemia (Mf) or circulating filarial antigenaemia (CFA) prevalence, the latter being more practical for field surveys. The current criterion for stopping MDA requires <2% CFA prevalence in 6- to 7-year olds, but this criterion is not evidence-based. We used mathematical modelling to investigate the validity of different thresholds regarding testing method and age group for African MDA programmes using ivermectin plus albendazole. Methodolgy/Principal findings: We verified that our model captures observed patterns in Mf and CFA prevalence during annual MDA, assuming that CFA tests are positive if at least one adult worm is present. We then assessed how well elimination can be predicted from CFA prevalence in 6-7-year-old children or from Mf or CFA prevalence in the 5+ or 15+ population, and determined safe (>95% positive predictive value) thresholds for stopping MDA. The model captured trends in Mf and CFA prevalences reasonably well. Elimination cannot be predicted with sufficient certainty from CFA prevalence in 6-7-year olds. Resurgence may still occur if all children are antigen-negative, irrespective of the number tested. Mf-based criteria also show unfavourable results (PPV <95% or unpractically low threshold). CFA prevalences in the 5+ or 15+ population are the best predictors, and post-MDA threshold values for stopping MDA can be as high as 10% for 15+. These thresholds are robust for various alternative assumptions regarding baseline endemicity, biological parameters and sampling strategies. Conclusions/Significance: For African areas with moderate to high pre-treatment Mf prevalence that have had 6 or more rounds of annual ivermectin/albendazole MDA with adequate coverage, we recommend to adopt a CFA threshold prevalence of 10% in adults (15+) for stopping MDA. This could be combined with Mf testing of CFA positives to ensure absence of a significant Mf reservoir for transmission. Author summary: Mass drug administration (MDA) of antifilarial drugs is the main strategy towards the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF), but defining when MDA can safely be stopped is challenging. Current stopping guidelines require that the prevalence of microfilaraemia (Mf) in the population falls below 1% or the prevalence of circulating filarial antigenaemia (CFA) in 6-and-7-year-old children falls below 2%. The evidence base underlying this threshold is limited. The accuracy of this threshold is hard to assess in field studies due to the long timespan between stopping MDA and the occurrence of either elimination or resurgence. We used mathematical modelling to assess how well elimination can be predicted at community-level from the Mf or CFA prevalence observed 1-year after the last MDA round and we determined safe stopping thresholds (>95% certainty that elimination is achieved). We found that the currently used CFA prevalence in 6–7 year-old children is a poor indicator for stopping decisions in LF elimination programmes implementing MDA with ivermectin plus albendazole, and that CFA prevalence among people aged 5 or 15 years and older is a much more reliable and practical indicator of elimination outcomes. Lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes should reconsider guidelines for stopping MDA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background In view of the current global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, mass drug administration interventions for neglected tropical diseases, including lymphatic filariasis (LF), have been halted. We used mathematical modelling to estimate the impact of delaying or cancelling treatment rounds and explore possible mitigation strategies. Methods We used three established LF transmission models to simulate infection trends in settings with annual treatment rounds and programme delays in 2020 of 6, 12, 18 or 24 months. We then evaluated the impact of various mitigation strategies upon resuming activities. Results The delay in achieving the elimination goals is on average similar to the number of years the treatment rounds are missed. Enhanced interventions implemented for as little as 1 y can allow catch-up on the progress lost and, if maintained throughout the programme, can lead to acceleration of up to 3 y. Conclusions In general, a short delay in the programme does not cause a major delay in achieving the goals. Impact is strongest in high-endemicity areas. Mitigation strategies such as biannual treatment or increased coverage are key to minimizing the impact of the disruption once the programme resumes and lead to potential acceleration should these enhanced strategies be maintained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The low prevalence levels associated with lymphatic filariasis elimination pose a challenge for effective disease surveillance. As more countries achieve the World Health Organization criteria for halting mass treatment and move on to surveillance, there is increasing reliance on the utility of transmission assessment surveys (TAS) to measure success. However, the long-term disease outcomes after passing TAS are largely untested. Using 3 well-established mathematical models, we show that low-level prevalence can be maintained for a long period after halting mass treatment and that true elimination (0% prevalence) is usually slow to achieve. The risk of resurgence after achieving current targets is low and is hard to predict using just current prevalence. Although resurgence is often quick (<5 years), it can still occur outside of the currently recommended postintervention surveillance period of 4-6 years. Our results highlight the need for ongoing and enhanced postintervention monitoring, beyond the scope of TAS, to ensure sustained success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) infection is generally diagnosed through parasitological identification of microfilariae (mf) in the blood. Although historically the most commonly used technique for counting mf is the thick blood smear based on 20 µl blood (TBS20), various other techniques and blood volumes have been applied. It is therefore a challenge to compare mf prevalence estimates from different LF-survey data. Our objective was to standardise microfilaraemia (mf) prevalence estimates to TBS20 as the reference diagnostic technique. Methods: We first performed a systematic review to identify studies reporting on comparative mf prevalence data as measured by more than one diagnostic test, including TBS20, on the same study population. Associations between mf prevalences based on different diagnostic techniques were quantified in terms of odds ratios (OR, with TBS20 blood as reference), using a meta-regression model. Results: We identified 606 articles matching our search strategy and included 14 in our analyses. The OR of the mf prevalences as measured by the more sensitive counting chamber technique (≥ 50 µl blood) was 2.90 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.60–5.28). For membrane filtration (1 ml blood) the OR was 2.39 (95% CI: 1.62–3.53), Knott's technique it was 1.54 (95% CI: 0.72–3.29), and for TBS in ≥ 40 µl blood it was 1.37 (95% CI: 0.81–2.30). Conclusions: We provided transformation factors to standardise mf prevalence estimates as detected by different diagnostic techniques to mf prevalence estimates as measured by TBS20. This will facilitate the use and comparison of more datasets in meta-analyses and geographic mapping initiatives across countries and over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Onchocerciasis elimination through mass drug administration (MDA) is hampered by coendemicity of Loa loa, as people with high L. loa microfilariae (mf) density can develop serious adverse events (SAEs) after ivermectin treatment. We assessed the geographical overlap of onchocerciasis and loiasis prevalence and estimated the number of coinfected individuals at risk of post-ivermectin SAEs in West and Central Africa from 1995 to 2025. Methods Focusing on regions with suspected loiasis transmission in 14 countries, we overlaid precontrol maps of loiasis and onchocerciasis prevalence to calculate precontrol prevalence of coinfection by 5 km2 × 5 km2 pixel, distinguishing different categories of L. loa mf intensity. Using statistical and mathematical models, we predicted prevalence of both infections and coinfection for 2015 and 2025, accounting for the impact of MDA with ivermectin. Results The number of people infected with onchocerciasis was predicted to decline from almost 19 million in 1995 to 4 million in 2025. Of these, 137 000 people were estimated to also have L. loa hypermicrofilaremia (≥20 000 L. loa mf/mL) in 1995, declining to 31 000 in 2025. In 2025, 92.8% of coinfected cases with loiasis hypermicrofilaremia are predicted to live in hypoendemic areas currently not targeted for MDA. Conclusions Loiasis coinfection is a major concern for onchocerciasis elimination in Africa. We predict that under current strategies, at least 31 000 coinfected people still require treatment for onchocerciasis in 2025 while being at risk of SAEs, justifying continued efforts in research and development for safer drugs and control strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Ghana started its national programme to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (LF) in 2000, with mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin and albendazole as main strategy. We review the progress towards elimination that was made by 2016 for all endemic districts of Ghana and analyze microfilaria (mf) prevalence from sentinel and spot-check sites in endemic districts. Methods: We reviewed district level data on the history of MDA and outcomes of transmission assessment surveys (TAS). We further collated and analyzed mf prevalence data from sentinel and spot-check sites. Results: MDA was initiated in 2001–2006 in all 98 endemic districts; by the end of 2016, 81 had stopped MDA after passing TAS and after an average of 11 rounds of treatment (range 8–14 rounds). The median reported coverage for the communities was 77–80%. Mf prevalence survey data were available for 430 communities from 78/98 endemic districts. Baseline mf prevalence data were available for 53 communities, with an average mf prevalence of 8.7% (0–45.7%). Repeated measurements were available for 78 communities, showing a steep decrease in mean mf prevalence in the first few years of MDA, followed by a gradual further decline. In the 2013 and 2014 surveys, 7 and 10 communities respectively were identified with mf prevalence still above 1% (maximum 5.6%). Fifteen of the communities above threshold are all within districts where MDA was still ongoing by 2016. Conclusions: The MDA programme of the Ghana Health Services has reduced mf prevalence in sentinel sites below the 1% threshold in 81/98 endemic districts in Ghana, yet 15 communities within 13 districts (MDA ongoing by 2016) had higher prevalence than this threshold during the surveys in 2013 and 2014. These districts may need to intensify interventions to achieve the WHO 2020 target. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Stable low pre-control prevalences of helminth infection are not uncommon in field settings, yet it is poorly understood how such low levels can be sustained, thereby challenging efforts to model them. Disentangling possible facilitating mechanisms is important, since these may differently affect intervention impact. Here we explore the role of assortative (i.e. non-homogenous) mixing and exposure heterogeneity in helminth transmission, using onchocerciasis as an example. Methodology/Principal findings: We extended the established individual-based model ONCHOSIM to allow for assortative mixing, assuming that individuals who are relatively more exposed to fly bites are more connected to each other than other individuals in the population as a result of differential exposure to a sub-population of blackflies. We used the model to investigate how transmission stability, equilibrium microfilarial (mf) prevalence and intensity, and impact of mass drug administration depend on the assumed degree of assortative mixing and exposure heterogeneity, for a typical rural population of about 400 individuals. The model clearly demonstrated that with homogeneous mixing and moderate levels of exposure heterogeneity, onchocerciasis could not be sustained below 35% mf prevalence. In contrast, assortative mixing stabilised onchocerciasis prevalence at levels as low as 8% mf prevalence. Increasing levels of assortative mixing significantly reduced the probability of interrupting transmission, given the same duration and coverage of mass drug administration. Conclusions/Significance: Assortative mixing patterns are an important factor to explain stable low prevalence situations and are highly relevant for prospects of elimination. Their effect on the pre-control distribution of mf intensities in human populations is only detectable in settings with mf prevalences <30%, where high skin mf density in mf-positive people may be an indication of assortative mixing. Local spatial variation in larval infection intensity in the blackfly intermediate host may also be an indicator of assortative mixing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mathematical models are increasingly being used to evaluate strategies aiming to achieve the control or elimination of parasitic diseases. Recently, owing to growing realization that process-oriented models are useful for ecological forecasts only if the biological processes are well defined, attention has focused on data assimilation as a means to improve the predictive performance of these models. Methodology and principal findings: We report on the development of an analytical framework to quantify the relative values of various longitudinal infection surveillance data collected in field sites undergoing mass drug administrations (MDAs) for calibrating three lymphatic filariasis (LF) models (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, and TRANSFIL), and for improving their predictions of the required durations of drug interventions to achieve parasite elimination in endemic populations. The relative information contribution of site-specific data collected at the time points proposed by the WHO monitoring framework was evaluated using model-data updating procedures, and via calculations of the Shannon information index and weighted variances from the probability distributions of the estimated timelines to parasite extinction made by each model. Results show that data-informed models provided more precise forecasts of elimination timelines in each site compared to model-only simulations. Data streams that included year 5 post-MDA microfilariae (mf) survey data, however, reduced each model’s uncertainty most compared to data streams containing only baseline and/or post-MDA 3 or longer-term mf survey data irrespective of MDA coverage, suggesting that data up to this monitoring point may be optimal for informing the present LF models. We show that the improvements observed in the predictive performance of the best data-informed models may be a function of temporal changes in inter-parameter interactions. Such best data-informed models may also produce more accurate predictions of the durations of drug interventions required to achieve parasite elimination. Significance: Knowledge of relative information contributions of model only versus data-informed models is valuable for improving the usefulness of LF model predictions in management decision making, learning system dynamics, and for supporting the design of parasite monitoring programmes. The present results further pinpoint the crucial need for longitudinal infection surveillance data for enhancing the precision and accuracy of model predictions of the intervention durations required to achieve parasite elimination in an endemic location. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths (STH) and trachoma represent the five most prevalent neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). They can be controlled or eliminated by means of safe and cost-effective interventions delivered through programs of Mass Drug Administration (MDA)—also named Preventive Chemotherapy (PCT). The WHO defined targets for NTD control/elimination by 2020, reinforced by the 2012 London Declaration, which, if achieved, would result in dramatic health gains. We estimated the potential economic benefit of achieving these targets, focusing specifically on productivity and out-of-pocket payments. Methods: Productivity loss was calculated by combining disease frequency with productivity loss from the disease, from the perspective of affected individuals. Productivity gain was calculated by deducting the total loss expected in the target achievement scenario from the loss in a counterfactual scenario where it was assumed the pre-intervention situation in 1990 regarding NTDs would continue unabated until 2030. Economic benefits from out-of-pocket payments (OPPs) were calculated similarly. Benefits are reported in 2005 US$ (purchasing power parity-adjusted and discounted at 3% per annum from 2010). Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the influence of changes in input parameters. Results: The economic benefit from productivity gain was estimated to be I$251 billion in 2011–2020 and I$313 billion in 2021–2030, considerably greater than the total OPPs averted of I$0.72 billion and I$0.96 billion in the same periods. The net benefit is expected to be US$ 27.4 and US$ 42.8 for every dollar invested during the same periods. Impact varies between NTDs and regions, since it is determined by disease prevalence and extent of disease-related productivity loss. Conclusion: Achieving the PCT-NTD targets for 2020 will yield significant economic benefits to affected individuals. Despite large uncertainty, these benefits far exceed the investment required by governments and their development partners within all reasonable scenarios. Given the concentration of the NTDs among the poorest households, these investments represent good value for money in efforts to share the world’s prosperity and reduce inequity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mathematical modelling provides a useful tool for policy making and planning in lymphatic filariasis control programmes, by providing trend forecasts based on sound scientific knowledge and principles. This is now especially true, in view of the ambitious target to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem globally by the year 2020 and the short remaining timeline to achieve this. To meet this target, elimination programmes need to be accelerated, requiring further optimization of strategies and tailoring to local circumstances. Insights from epidemiological transmission models provide a useful basis. Two general models of lymphatic filariasis transmission and control are nowadays in use to support decision-making, namely a population-based deterministic model (EPIFIL) and an individual-based stochastic model (LYMFASIM). Model predictions confirm that lymphatic filariasis transmission can be interrupted by annual mass drug administration (MDA), but this may need to be continued much longer than the initially suggested 4-6 years in areas with high transmission intensity or poor treatment coverage. However, the models have not been validated against longitudinal data describing the impact of MDA programmes. Some critical issues remain to be incorporated in one or both of the models to make predictions on elimination more realistic, including the possible occurrence of systematic noncompliance, the risk of emerging parasite resistance to anthelmintic drugs, and spatial heterogeneities. Rapid advances are needed to maximize the utility of models in decision-making for the ongoing ambitious lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author explores the contributions of the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) for treating patients with onchocerciasis in 16 sub-Saharan countries including Cameroon, Congo and Ethiopia. Details on the updates health impact of the disease estimation based on disability weights from year 1995 to 2015 is discussed. The author also emphasizes the risk of skin disease in patients with onchocerciasis.

The Global Program to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) has a target date of 2020. This program is progressing well in many countries. However, progress has been slow in some countries, and others have not yet started their mass drug administration (MDA) programs. Acceleration is needed. We studied how increasing MDA frequency from once to twice per year would affect program duration and costs by using computer simulation modeling and cost projections. We used the LYMFASIM simulation model to estimate how many annual or semiannual MDA rounds would be required to eliminate LF for Indian and West African scenarios with varied pre-control endemicity and coverage levels. Results were used to estimate total program costs assuming a target population of 100,000 eligibles, a 3% discount rate, and not counting the costs of donated drugs. A sensitivity analysis was done to investigate the robustness of these results with varied assumptions for key parameters. Model predictions suggested that semiannual MDA will require the same number of MDA rounds to achieve LF elimination as annual MDA in most scenarios. Thus semiannual MDA programs should achieve this goal in half of the time required for annual programs. Due to efficiency gains, total program costs for semiannual MDA programs are projected to be lower than those for annual MDA programs in most scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this conclusion is robust. Semiannual MDA is likely to shorten the time and lower the cost required for LF elimination in countries where it can be implemented. This strategy may improve prospects for global elimination of LF by the target year 2020. Author Summary: The Global Program to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) employs annual mass drug administration (MDA) of antifilarial drugs to reduce infection rates in populations and interrupt transmission. While this program is working well in many countries, progress has been slow in others, and some countries have not yet started MDA programs. We used computer simulation modeling and cost projections to study how increasing MDA frequency from once to twice per year would affect program duration and costs. Our results suggest that semiannual MDA is likely to reduce the time required to eliminate LF by 50% and reduce total program costs (excluding the cost of donated drugs) in most situations. For these and other reasons, we expect semiannual MDA to be superior to annual MDA in most endemic settings. Semiannual MDA should be considered as a means of accelerating LF elimination in areas where it can be implemented, because this may improve prospects for global elimination of LF by the target year 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

LYMFASIM is a simulation model for lymphatic filariasis transmission and control. We quantified its parameters to simulate Wuchereria bancrofti transmission by Anopheles mosquitoes in African villages, using a wide variety of reported data. The developed model captures the general epidemiological patterns, but also the differences between communities. It was calibrated to represent the relationship between mosquito biting rate and the prevalence of microfilariae (mf) in the human population, the age-pattern in mf prevalence, and the relation between mf prevalence and geometric mean mf intensity. Explorative simulations suggest that the impact of mass treatment depends strongly on the mosquito biting rate and on the assumed coverage, compliance and efficacy. Our sensitivity analysis showed that some biological parameters strongly influence the predicted equilibrium pre-treatment mf prevalence (e.g. the lifespan of adult worms and mf). Other parameters primarily affect the post-treatment trends (e.g. severity of density dependence in the mosquito uptake of infection from the human blood, between-person variability in exposure to mosquito bites). The longitudinal data, which are being collected for evaluation of ongoing elimination programmes, can help to further validate the model. The model can help to assess when ongoing elimination activities in African populations can be stopped and to design surveillance schemes. It can be a valuable tool for decision making in the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To determine the efficacies of combinations of ivermectin or diethylcarbamazine and albendazole, which are recommended for use in mass treatment programmes against lymphatic filariasis. Method: Review of published trends in microfilarial (mf) intensities after treatment with these combination therapies. By fitting a mathematical model of treatment effects to the trial data, we quantified the efficacy of treatment, distinguishing between the killing of mf (mf loss) and a reduction in mf production by adult worms (worm-productivity loss). After diethylcarbamazine-albendazole treatment mf density dropped immediately, then slowly but steadily decreased further (four trials). After ivermectin-albendazole treatment, mf densities immediately dropped to near-zero levels, followed by a small increase (five trials). For diethylcarbamazine-albendazole treatment the average mf loss was approximately 83% (ranging from 54% to 100% in the different studies) and worm-productivity loss was 100% (in all studies). For ivermectin-albendazole treatment, average mf loss was 100% (ranging from 98% to 100%) and worm productivity loss was 96% (ranging from 83% to 100%). The effects were dose-dependent. Sensitivity analysis showed that the estimates did not depend on assumptions on worm lifespan or premature period and little on assumptions on mf lifespan. Conclusion: The two therapies differ with respect to their direct effect on mf, but both are highly effective against adult worms. If mass treatment with these combination therapies achieves high coverage, they can have a large impact on lymphatic filariasis transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mathematical simulation models for transmission and control of lymphatic filariasis are useful tools for studying the prospects of lymphatic filariasis elimination. Two simulation models are currently being used. The first, EPIFIL, is a population-based, deterministic model that simulates average trends in infection intensity over time. The second, LYMFASIM, is an individual-based, stochastic model that simulates acquisition and loss of infection for each individual in the simulated population, taking account of individual characteristics. For settings like Pondicherry (India), where Wuchereria bancrofti infection is transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus, the models give similar predictions of the coverage and number of treatment rounds required to bring microfilaraemia prevalence below a level of 0.5%. Nevertheless, published estimates of the duration of mass treatment required for elimination differed, due to the use of different indicators for elimination (EPIFIL: microfilaraemia prevalence < 0.5% after the last treatment; LYMFASIM: reduction of microfilaraemia prevalence to zero, within 40 years after the start of mass treatment). The two main challenges for future modelling work are: 1) quantification and validation of the models for other regions, for investigation of elimination prospects in situations with other vector-parasite combinations and endemicity levels than in Pondicherry; 2) application of the models to address a range of programmatic issues related to the monitoring and evaluation of ongoing control programmes. The models' usefulness could be enhanced by several extensions; inclusion of different diagnostic tests and natural history of disease in the models is of particular relevance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Many countries have implemented mass drug administration programmes to eliminate lymphatic filariasis, but few have also implemented morbidity management programmes to help patients with chronic lymphoedema or hydrocele due to the infection. A study was carried out to assess current morbidity management by physicians in Pondicherry, India. Fifty-two physicians were interviewed, using a semi-structured questionnaire. For the management of hydrocele, all physicians referred hydrocele patients for surgery and 83% prescribed diethylcarbamazine (DEC). For the management of chronic lymphoedema patients, most doctors (75%) prescribed DEC and 56% mentioned the possibility of surgery. Only 10% of the physicians gave advice about limb hygiene, although recent research has shown the importance of hygiene measures to prevent further progression of lymphoedema. For the management of lymphoedema patients presenting with acute attacks, all physicians prescribed DEC and antibiotics and only 15% gave advice about limb hygiene. We conclude that limb hygiene instruction for home care should be more strongly emphasised to optimize management of lymphoedema patients in Pondicherry. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

To achieve the elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in all African countries will entail enormous challenges, as has been highlighted by the active discussion around onchocerciasis intervention strategies and evaluation procedures in this journal. Serological thresholds for onchocerciasis elimination, adapted for the African setting, need to be established. The Onchocerciasis Technical Advisory Subgroup of the World Health Organization is currently developing improved guidelines to allow country elimination committees to make evidence-based decisions. Importantly, onchocerciasis-related morbidity should not be forgotten when debating elimination prospects. A morbidity management and disease prevention (MMDP) strategy similar to that for lymphatic filariasis will need to be developed. This will require collaboration between the onchocerciasis elimination program, the community and other partners including primary health and mental health programs. In order to reach the goal of onchocerciasis elimination in most African countries by 2025, we should prioritize community participation and advocate for tailored interventions which are scientifically proven to be effective, but currently considered to be too expensive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A test-and-not-treat (TaNT) strategy has been developed to prevent people with high concentrations of circulating Loa loa microfilariae (>20 000 microfilariae per mL) developing serious adverse events after ivermectin treatment during mass drug administration to eliminate onchocerciasis. An important question related to cost and programmatic issues is whether annual retesting is required for everyone. We therefore aimed to investigate changes in L loa microfilarial densities during TaNT campaigns run 18 months apart.Methods: In this observational cohort study, we assessed the participants of two TaNT campaigns for onchocerciasis. These campaigns, which were run by a research team, together with personnel from the Ministry of Health and community health workers, were done in six health areas (in 89 communities) in Okola health district (Cameroon); the first campaign was run between Aug 10, and Oct 29, 2015, and the second was run between March 7, and May 26, 2017. All individuals aged 5 years and older were invited to be screened for Loa loa microfilaraemia before being offered ivermectin (unless contraindicated). L loa microfilarial density was measured at the point of care using the LoaScope. All those with a L loa microfilarial density of 20 000 microfilariae per mL or less were offered treatment; in the first 2 weeks of the 2015 campaign, a higher exclusion threshold of 26 000 microfilariae per mL or less was used. At both rounds of the intervention, participants were registered with a paper form, in which personal information were collected. In 2017, we also recorded whether each individual reported participation in the 2015 campaign. The primary outcome, assessed in all participants, was whether L loa microfilarial density was above or below the exclusion threshold (ie, the criteria that guided the decision to treat).Findings: In the 2015 TaNT campaign, 26 415 people were censused versus 29 587 people in the 2017 TaNT campaign. All individuals aged 5 years and older without other contraindications to treatment (22 842 people in 2015 and 25 421 people in 2017) were invited to be screened for L loa microfilaraemia before being offered ivermectin. In 2015, 16 182 individuals were examined with the LoaScope, versus 18 697 individuals in the same communities in 2017. 344 (2·1%) individuals were excluded from ivermectin treatment because of a high L loa microfilarial density in 2015, versus 283 (1·5%) individuals in 2017 (p<0·0001). Records from 2017 could be matched to those from 2015 for 6983 individuals (43·2% of the 2015 participants). In this cohort, in 2017, 6981 (>99·9%) of 6983 individuals treated with ivermectin in 2015 had L loa microfilariae density below the level associated with neurological serious adverse events.Interpretation: Individuals treated with ivermectin do not need to be retested for L loa microfilaraemia before the next treatment, provided that they can be re-identified. This adjusted approach will enable substantial cost savings and facilitate reaching programmatic goals for elimination of onchocerciasis in areas that are co-endemic for loiasis.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Division of Intramural Research (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, US National Institutes of Health). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Implementation of an ivermectin-based community treatment strategy for the elimination of onchocerciasis or lymphatic filariasis has been delayed in Central Africa because of the occurrence of serious adverse events, including death, in persons with high levels of circulating Loa loa microfilariae. The LoaScope, a field-friendly diagnostic tool to quantify L. loa microfilariae in peripheral blood, enables rapid, point-of-care identification of persons at risk for serious adverse events.Methods: A test-and-not-treat strategy was used in the approach to ivermectin treatment in the Okola health district in Cameroon, where the distribution of ivermectin was halted in 1999 after the occurrence of fatal events related to L. loa infection. The LoaScope was used to identify persons with an L. loa microfilarial density greater than 20,000 microfilariae per milliliter of blood, who were considered to be at risk for serious adverse events, and exclude them from ivermectin distribution. Active surveillance for posttreatment adverse events was performed daily for 6 days.Results: From August through October 2015, a total of 16,259 of 22,842 persons 5 years of age or older (71.2% of the target population) were tested for L. loa microfilaremia. Among the participants who underwent testing, a total of 15,522 (95.5%) received ivermectin, 340 (2.1%) were excluded from ivermectin distribution because of an L. loa microfilarial density above the risk threshold, and 397 (2.4%) were excluded because of pregnancy or illness. No serious adverse events were observed. Nonserious adverse events were recorded in 934 participants, most of whom (67.5%) had no detectable L. loa microfilariae.Conclusions: The LoaScope-based test-and-not-treat strategy enabled the reimplementation of community-wide ivermectin distribution in a heretofore "off limits" health district in Cameroon and is a potentially practical approach to larger-scale ivermectin treatment for lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis in areas where L. loa infection is endemic. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others.). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]