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Previous studies on the prognostic significance of non-invasive liver fibrosis tests in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) lack direct comparison to liver biopsy. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of fibrosis-4 (FIB4) and vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), compared to liver biopsy, for the prediction of liver-related events (LREs) in NAFLD. A total of 1,057 patients with NAFLD and baseline FIB4 and VCTE were included in a multicenter cohort. Of these patients, 594 also had a baseline liver biopsy. The main study outcome during follow-up was occurrence of LREs, a composite endpoint combining cirrhosis complications and/or hepatocellular carcinoma. Discriminative ability was evaluated using Harrell's C-index. FIB4 and VCTE showed good accuracy for the prediction of LREs, with Harrell's C-indexes >0.80 (0.817 [0.768-0.866] vs. 0.878 [0.835-0.921], respectively, p = 0.059). In the biopsy subgroup, Harrell's C-indexes of histological fibrosis staging and VCTE were not significantly different (0.932 [0.910-0.955] vs. 0.881 [0.832-0.931], respectively, p = 0.164), while both significantly outperformed FIB4 for the prediction of LREs. FIB4 and VCTE were independent predictors of LREs in the whole study cohort. The stepwise FIB4-VCTE algorithm accurately stratified the risk of LREs: compared to patients with "FIB4 <1.30", those with "FIB4 ≥1.30 then VCTE <8.0 kPa" had similar risk of LREs (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.3; 95% CI 0.3–6.8), whereas the risk of LREs significantly increased in patients with "FIB4 ≥1.30 then VCTE 8.0-12.0 kPa" (aHR 3.8; 95% CI 1.3–10.9), and even more for those with "FIB4 ≥1.30 then VCTE >12.0 kPa" (aHR 12.4; 95% CI 5.1–30.2). VCTE and FIB4 accurately stratify patients with NAFLD based on their risk of LREs. These non-invasive tests are alternatives to liver biopsy for the identification of patients in need of specialized management. The amount of fibrosis in the liver is closely associated with the risk of liver-related complications in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Liver biopsy currently remains the reference standard for the evaluation of fibrosis, but its application is limited by its invasiveness. Therefore, we evaluated the ability of non-invasive liver fibrosis tests to predict liver-related complications in NAFLD. Our results show that the blood test FIB4 and transient elastography stratify the risk of liver-related complications in NAFLD, and that transient elastography has similar prognostic accuracy as liver biopsy. These results support the use of non-invasive liver fibrosis tests instead of liver biopsy for the management of patients with NAFLD. [Display omitted] • At their published cut-offs, FIB4 and VCTE stratify patients with NAFLD into subgroups with significantly different prognoses. • Compared to liver biopsy in NAFLD, VCTE has similar accuracy for the prediction of liver-related events. • With regards to clinical events, the FIB4-VCTE stepwise algorithm accurately discriminates at-risk patients with NAFLD. • This algorithm should be used in the referral pathway to a liver specialist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a chronic, progressive fibrotic liver disease that can lead to cirrhosis. While liver biopsy is considered the reference standard for the histologic diagnosis of NASH and staging of fibrosis, its use in clinical practice is limited. Non-invasive tests (NITs) are increasingly being used to identify and stage liver fibrosis in patients with NASH, and several can assess liver-related outcomes. We report changes in various NITs in patients treated with obeticholic acid (OCA) or placebo in the phase III REGENERATE study. Patients with NASH and fibrosis stage F2 or F3 (n = 931) were randomized (1:1:1) to receive placebo, OCA 10 mg, or OCA 25 mg once daily. Various NITs based on clinical chemistry and/or imaging were evaluated at baseline and throughout the study. Rapid, sustained reductions from baseline in alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and gamma-glutamyltransferase levels, as well as in Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), FibroTest, FibroMeter, and FibroScan-AST scores were observed in OCA-treated vs. placebo-treated patients. Reduction in liver stiffness by vibration-controlled transient elastography was observed in the OCA 25 mg group vs. the placebo group at Month 18. NIT changes were associated with shifts in histologic fibrosis stage. The greatest improvements were observed in patients with ≥1-stage fibrosis improvement; however, improvements in ALT, AST, FIB-4, and FibroTest were also observed in OCA-treated patients whose histologic fibrosis remained stable. Based on the REGENERATE Month 18 interim analysis, rapid and sustained improvements in various NITs were observed with OCA treatment. Dynamic changes in selected NITs separated histologic responders from non-responders. These results suggest that NITs may be useful in assessing histologic response to OCA therapy. NCT02548351 Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a chronic, progressive liver disease that can lead to cirrhosis. To diagnose and assess liver fibrosis (scarring) in patients with NASH, non-invasive tests (NITs) are increasingly being used rather than liver biopsy, which is invasive, expensive, and can be risky. In the REGENERATE study, which is evaluating the effects of obeticholic acid vs. placebo in patients with NASH, various NITs were also evaluated. This analysis shows that improvements in levels of certain blood components, as well as favorable results of ultrasound imaging and proprietary tests of liver function, were associated with improvements in liver fibrosis after treatment with obeticholic acid, suggesting that NITs may be useful alternatives to liver biopsy in assessing NASH patients' response to therapy. [Display omitted] • Reduced ALT, AST, GGT, FIB-4, and FibroTest scores were seen with OCA vs. placebo. • Reduced liver stiffness by VCTE was observed in OCA vs. placebo arms at Month 18. • NIT changes in OCA treatment arms were associated with shifts in fibrosis stage. • The antifibrotic effect of OCA might be measurable with commonly used NITs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]