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Sustained viral response (SVR) significantly improves the prognosis in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) chronic infection but does not totally alleviate the risk of liver‐related complications (LRC). We aimed to evaluate whether the dynamics of multiple measurements of simple parameters after SVR enable the development of a personalized prediction of prognosis in HCV patients. HCV mono‐infected patients who experienced SVR in two prospective cohorts (ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort: derivation set; ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort: validation set) were included. The study outcome was LRC, a composite criterion including decompensation of cirrhosis and/or hepatocellular carcinoma. Joint latent class modelling accounting for both biomarker trajectory and event occurrence during follow‐up was developed in the derivation set to compute individual dynamic predictions, with further evaluation in the validation set. In the derivation set (n = 695; 50 LRC during the median 3.8 [1.6–7.5] years follow‐up), FIB4 was identified as a biomarker associated with LRC occurrence after SVR. Joint modelling used sex and the dynamics of FIB4 and diabetes status to develop a personalized prediction of LRC. In the validation set (n = 7064; 273 LRC during the median 3.6 [2.5–4.9] years follow‐up), individual dynamic predictions from the model accurately stratified the risk of LRC. Time‐dependent Brier Score showed good calibration that improved with the accumulation of visits, justifying our modelling approach considering both baseline and follow‐up measurements. Dynamic modelling using repeated measurements of simple parameters predicts the individual residual risk of LRC and improves personalized medicine after SVR in HCV patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies on the prognostic significance of non-invasive liver fibrosis tests in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) lack direct comparison to liver biopsy. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of fibrosis-4 (FIB4) and vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), compared to liver biopsy, for the prediction of liver-related events (LREs) in NAFLD. A total of 1,057 patients with NAFLD and baseline FIB4 and VCTE were included in a multicenter cohort. Of these patients, 594 also had a baseline liver biopsy. The main study outcome during follow-up was occurrence of LREs, a composite endpoint combining cirrhosis complications and/or hepatocellular carcinoma. Discriminative ability was evaluated using Harrell's C-index. FIB4 and VCTE showed good accuracy for the prediction of LREs, with Harrell's C-indexes >0.80 (0.817 [0.768-0.866] vs. 0.878 [0.835-0.921], respectively, p = 0.059). In the biopsy subgroup, Harrell's C-indexes of histological fibrosis staging and VCTE were not significantly different (0.932 [0.910-0.955] vs. 0.881 [0.832-0.931], respectively, p = 0.164), while both significantly outperformed FIB4 for the prediction of LREs. FIB4 and VCTE were independent predictors of LREs in the whole study cohort. The stepwise FIB4-VCTE algorithm accurately stratified the risk of LREs: compared to patients with "FIB4 <1.30", those with "FIB4 ≥1.30 then VCTE <8.0 kPa" had similar risk of LREs (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.3; 95% CI 0.3–6.8), whereas the risk of LREs significantly increased in patients with "FIB4 ≥1.30 then VCTE 8.0-12.0 kPa" (aHR 3.8; 95% CI 1.3–10.9), and even more for those with "FIB4 ≥1.30 then VCTE >12.0 kPa" (aHR 12.4; 95% CI 5.1–30.2). VCTE and FIB4 accurately stratify patients with NAFLD based on their risk of LREs. These non-invasive tests are alternatives to liver biopsy for the identification of patients in need of specialized management. The amount of fibrosis in the liver is closely associated with the risk of liver-related complications in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Liver biopsy currently remains the reference standard for the evaluation of fibrosis, but its application is limited by its invasiveness. Therefore, we evaluated the ability of non-invasive liver fibrosis tests to predict liver-related complications in NAFLD. Our results show that the blood test FIB4 and transient elastography stratify the risk of liver-related complications in NAFLD, and that transient elastography has similar prognostic accuracy as liver biopsy. These results support the use of non-invasive liver fibrosis tests instead of liver biopsy for the management of patients with NAFLD. [Display omitted] • At their published cut-offs, FIB4 and VCTE stratify patients with NAFLD into subgroups with significantly different prognoses. • Compared to liver biopsy in NAFLD, VCTE has similar accuracy for the prediction of liver-related events. • With regards to clinical events, the FIB4-VCTE stepwise algorithm accurately discriminates at-risk patients with NAFLD. • This algorithm should be used in the referral pathway to a liver specialist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]