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The results of the 1981 Indian census showed a slight increase in the rate of population growth despite an energetic governmental campaign to reduce fertility, the growing use of contraception, a substantial number of sterilized persons, and a declining birthrate. The longitudinal ethnographic analysis of population data from Shanti Nagar dating from the 1950s and the 1970s suggests that the growth rate of the population might be better understood if analytical emphasis were to be shifted somewhat from birth and death rates to survivorship, that is, the average number of living children per mother, thus focusing attention on the family, the social unit in which the decisions are made that give rise to national demographic rates and averages. Currently, the principle fertility decision that a Shanti Nagar couple must make is whether to undergo sterilization and how many children are deemed necessary before taking this step. Analysis of the Shanti Nagar data shows that women of completed fertility in the 1970s had more living children than comparable women in the 1950s, and that even the sterilized couples of the 1970s had only slightly fewer children than the almost entirely noncontracepting women of the 1950s. Although the age of women at their own (or their husbands') sterilization is falling and the operation takes place after fewer children than formerly, the average sterilized couple nonetheless has more than 4 children instead of the 2 or 3 that the Government of India prefers. An analysis of the relationship to fertility of various modernization variables, such as urbanization and enhanced economic status, fails to show any consistent correlation of such variables with reduced fertility. School attendance by females is perhaps the most promising of the modernization veriables, but its effect is somewhat ambiguous and relatively weak until women achieve the college level. Current trends suggest that soon after 2025, India may surpass China as the world's most populous nation.

"The purpose of this paper is to analyse age-patterns of fertility in Madhya Pradesh [in India] based on district level estimates of aggregate measures of fertility data collected in 1981.... Four clusters of districts have emerged which reveal a clear zonal pattern in age-specific fertility rates in the state. These groups bring out high fertility rates in the north and north-western parts of the state, gradually declining toward the south-eastern zone. The author suggests that separate policies and programmes be evolved for each of the clusters of districts for the purpose of bringing about reduction in fertility and promoting family welfare in the state of Madhya Pradesh.", (excerpt)

"The present paper explains the fertility differentials among socio-cultural groups and regions in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh and examines the role of such factors as general and female literacy, age at marriage and infant mortality in determining the fertility levels. The study indicates that no single factor is of overwhelming importance. These factors in combination, as revealed by multivariate analysis, account for about 29 percent inter-district variation in fertility in the state.", (excerpt)

"In this paper, a set of two probability models have been derived to describe the variation in the length of open birth interval of women having given birth to a child during the last 'T' years of their current reproductive age. The first model is derived by assuming the reproduction process as steady-state, the second is obtained by varying the fecundability parameter involved in the first model after the last birth. These models are applied to the three sets of data, one collected from [the Indian] Varanasi-survey, 1969-70 and the other two generated from the data on age-specific fertility rates using the life table technique. The biological parameters such as fecundability and secondary sterility have been estimated using some simple procedure of estimation.", (excerpt)

"This paper aims at finding out the socio-demographic perspective of...tribal and non-tribal females [in India] through a concrete pattern of field survey. The data gathered from 3,428 tribal and 2,447 non-tribal females have been analysed to examine the trends of differences in the status enjoyed by these women belonging to two different communities." Consideration is given to differences in literacy, nuptiality, marriage age, age structure, fertility, family planning, and infant mortality., (excerpt)

"The present paper is aimed at investigating the ethnic differentials in respect of the effects of different socio-economic and demographic characteristics upon fertility among four major ethnic groups of people [in the Barpeta district of Assam, India].", (excerpt)

"Based on a simple procedure developed by Menken (1979), the estimate of fecundability of migrated couples in the process of rural out-migration [in India] has been obtained in this paper. It is found that the estimates of fecundabilities for females of different age-groups are significantly larger than the level of fecundability estimated for non-migrated couples. Some possible explanations for observing such a large gap [are] given.", (excerpt)

"This study derives some probability models for all closed birth intervals and last closed birth intervals under [the] same set of assumptions. The models have been applied to some observed data taken from [India's] Varanasi Survey (1978). Models considered for analysis are presented in section two of the paper while section three deals with [the] illustration of models.", (excerpt)

"This paper reviews...demographic development [in India] since the mid-1970s and highlights important data gaps in respect to (i) fertility and family planning (ii) mortality and morbidity along with priority areas for exploratory research. The paper notes that during the past two decades, [the] demographic data-base in India has improved considerably. Fertility levels have begun to fall in many places and mortality has continued its rapid downward course....", (excerpt)

"In this paper [an] age dependent model [for estimating birth intervals] is constructed which assumes that the women have already crossed the age of maximum fertility at the time of observation. The parameters of the model are assumed to depend upon the parity." This model is based on an earlier age-dependent model by the same authors and was designed to account for late marriage and high parity. The model was applied to information on 203 married, non-contracepting women from a village in Haryana, India, collected in May and June of 1978. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND ITA), (excerpt)

"This paper aims at analysing the economic contribution of children and its effect on parental decisions. It is shown that, under conditions of [India's agricultural structure,] the children's contribution towards family resources is highly valued by parents, and this acts as an incentive to raise more...children. Thus, high fertility in rural areas of India can be justified in so far as the positive net economic contribution of children is highly valued by parents.", (excerpt)

An investment model of the demand for children is developed to demonstrate that old-age security provided by children is an important consideration in the fertility decisions of parents. "The paper is organized as follows: Section II presents the importance of children as a source of old age support and risk mitigating mechanism. The investment approach for the demand for children is presented in Section III. Section IV...explores the implications in the context of a recent household survey conducted in rural India. Finally, the findings are summarised in Section V.", (excerpt)

The author examines the fertility behavior of the urban poor in India. "On the basis of data from 180 slum households in Calcutta, India, the paper indicates that in a situation where material and social conditions are comparable, cultural and demographic variables play a major role in influencing reproductive behavior. In this case study, caste and family type are shown to have a significant effect on the numbers of surviving children. As regards child spacing, the woman's age is of paramount importance.", (excerpt)

"This paper presents some modifications [of] the usual life table technique to analyse the data on the time of first birth and inter live birth intervals which are compiled from the birth histories of females, of varying marital durations, enumerated in a retrospective survey." The fact that a female may not be exposed to the risk of conception following childbirth or marriage, because of postpartum amenorrhea or of customs involving visits to parents, is taken into account. A method to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the conditional risk of conception is given, and an analysis of birth intervals is presented using this technique and data for India from the Rural Development and Population Growth--A Sample Survey 1978., (excerpt)

"This paper deals with derivation of models to describe the number of births to women during interval (O,T) of length T, when the start of the observation is marriage as well as when it is a distant point after marriage. These models are extensions of the models of Singh, et al., (1973) and of Sheps and Menken (1973) and can suitably be applied to data for short periods of observation as the parameters are assumed to be homogeneous in time. The methods to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters are outlined." The models are applied to data from a sample survey on rural development and population growth carried out by the Demographic Research Centre of Banaras Hindu University in 1978 in order to examine trends in fecundability and sterility by age of women., (excerpt)

This paper develops probability distributions to describe the variations in the number of live birth-conceptions to a female during a given time interval (0, To) of length To. In the derivation, the interval (0, To) is divided into 2 consecutive segments, and fertility parameters within each segment are assumed to be constant but may differ between the segments. A method of obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters is outlined. The models are applied to an observed set of data. An application of the models in the evaluation of family planning programs is illustrated.

Fertility trends in some Asian countries are presented, particularly those having reached very low levels. Changes in marriage (particularly delays in marriage) in those countries are summarized. Great disparities currently exist in the typical age at marriage of women in Asia, ranging from proportions of 10 to 30 per cent of women remaining single at ages 30 to 34 in some East and South-East Asian countries, to the other extreme in India, Bangladesh and Nepal, where the majority of women are married before age 18. The available evidence about the desegregations of fertility decline into marriage change and marital fertility decline are summarized is discussed. The factors influencing marriage and those influencing fertility within marriage are examined and the extent to which they are interlinked or separate. Policy on marriage change for fertility reduction in countries wishing to lower fertility is briefly discussed. The present article concludes that marriage change has played a considerable role in fertility declines in a number of Asian countries and could do so as well in the higher-fertility countries of Asia that are seeking ways to lower their fertility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely known that modern economic development has been accompanied by the initiation and spread of effective limitation of fertility, and that generally the populations which experienced development at a late date also had a belated reduction in childbearing. Here a surprising relation is found between (and within) broad regions: the areas in which traditional age of entry into marriage was late were the areas in which marital fertility was reduced first. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]