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Background The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound effect on the emotional well-being of expecting mothers. Sweden’s unique strategy for managing COVID-19 involved no national lockdown. Emphasis was instead placed on limiting crowding and asking citizens to practice social distancing measures. Aim To gain a deeper understanding of how women not infected by SARS-CoV-2 experienced pregnancy during the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden. Methods This was a qualitative study with a reflective lifeworld approach. Fourteen women that had not contracted COVID-19 and who were pregnant during the first and second wave of the pandemic were interviewed. Data were analysed with a phenomenological reflective lifeworld approach. Findings The essence of the women’s experiences of being pregnant during the COVID-19 pandemic was best described as being in the shadow of the unknown, where the COVID-19 pandemic could at times totally overshadow the experience of being pregnant, while at other times, rays of sunlight pierced through the clouds. The experience was characterised by having to deal with the uncertainties caused by the pandemic and feelings of being in an information echo. Women felt socially isolated and had to face maternal check-ups without the support of their partners. There was, however, a strong trust in maternal health-care services despite the lack of information available. Conclusion Being in the shadow of the unknown represents the uncertainties posed by the COVID-19 pandemic on the experience of pregnancy. Sufficient information, a companion of choice and screening for emotional well-being are important factors in maternity care during pandemics.

Objectives The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of emergency department (ED) crowding levels on patient admission decisions and outcomes. Methods A retrospective study was performed based on 2-year electronic health record data from a tertiary care hospital ED in Alberta, Canada. Using modified Poisson regression models, we studied the association of patient admission decisions and 7-day revisit probability with ED crowding levels measured by: 1) the total number of patients waiting and in treatment (ED census), 2) the number of boarding patients (boarder census), and 3) the average physician workload, calculated by the total number of ED patients divided by the number of physicians on duty (physician workload census). The control variables included age, gender, treatment area, triage level, and chief complaint. A subgroup analysis was performed to evaluate the heterogeneous effects among patients of different acuity levels. Results Our dataset included 141,035 patient visit records after cleaning from August 2013 to July 2015. The patient admission probability was positively correlated with ED census (relative risk [RR] = 1.006, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.005 to 1.007) and physician workload census (RR = 1.029, 95% CI = 1.027 to 1.032), but inversely correlated with boarder census (RR = 0.991, 95% CI = 0.989 to 0.993). We further found that the 7-day revisit probability of discharged patients was positively associated with boarder census (RR = 1.009, 95% CI = 1.004 to 1.014). Conclusions Patient admission probability was found to be directly associated with ED census and physician workload census, but inversely associated with the boarder census. The effects of boarder census and physician workload census were stronger for patients of triage levels 3–5. Our results suggested that (i) insufficient physician staffing may lead to unnecessary patient admissions; (ii) too many boarding patients in ED leads to an increase in unsafe discharges, and as a result, an increase in 7-day revisit probability.

Introduction This trial aimed to investigate the effectiveness of microosteoperforations (MOPs) in overall time taken for alignment of maxillary anterior crowding and to evaluate the alignment improvement percentage within 6 months between MOPs and control groups. Methods Thirty adult participants (25 females and 5 males; mean age, 22.66 ± 3.27 years) with moderate upper labial segment crowding were randomly assigned into intervention and control groups using block randomization. All participants had first premolar extractions, bonded conventional fixed appliances, and 0.014-in, followed by 0.018-in nickel-titanium archwire placement for initial alignment. The intervention group received a 3-mm deep MOPs procedure under local anesthesia using a Propel device (Propel Ortho Singapore, Pte, Ltd, Winstedt Rd, Singapore) on the labial attached gingivae of maxillary incisors at monthly visits until complete alignment. Little's irregularity index was used to assess the overall changes and measure the change of tooth alignment of the 6 maxillary anterior teeth. Assessor blinding was employed. Results There was no statistically significant difference in the median overall alignment duration between MOPs and control groups (139 days [95% confidence interval, 115.32-161.83] vs 143 days [95% confidence interval, 107.12-179.74]; hazard ratio, 0.829; P = 0.467). The MOPs procedure had no significant effect on the alignment duration (P = 0.657) and no overall significant difference in alignment improvement percentage among 2 groups on the basis of time (F = 2.53; P = 0.124). No harm was encountered. Conclusions The application of MOPs is no more effective in accelerating initial orthodontic alignment than conventional treatment. Trial registration This trial was registered at the ISRCTN registry with the study ID ISRCTN15080404. Protocol https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN15080404 . Funding This work was supported by the Postgraduate Trust Fund, Faculty of Dentistry, Universiti Teknologi MARA .

Hospitals, which play an important role in reducing injuries and casualties, must be prepared for a crowd of people in emergencies. The present study aimed to survey and collect data on the likely behaviours of people under emergency circumstances in hospitals in order to improve emergency response plans in these places. The target population was all individuals present in three hospitals from Tabriz (including patients, companions and treatment staff), and the sample size was 1145. A questionnaire was administered to this population in order to collect the data. The comparison of different groups was performed based on participants' gender and their role. Results showed that, in general, everyone in the surveyed hospitals is more likely to choose a reactive strategy rather than a preventive strategy as well as a cooperative strategy rather than a competitive strategy, and less willing to use lifts during emergencies. Comparing different strategies utilized by different people resulting from ordered logit models revealed that there are significant differences in evacuation strategies between men and women as well as between treatment staff and all respondents. Men were more likely to select a proactive strategy rather than a reactive strategy compared to women. Also, the treatment staff group were more likely to employ a cooperative strategy and less likely to use a competitive strategy compared to other people. In view of the role of hospitals, the results of this study can play a major role in policy-making to predict the behaviour of different individuals in healthcare settings and perform needs assessment to consider the necessary facilities or raining required for different people in various countries.

The studies on knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) regarding COVID-19 help to identify erroneous concepts and inadequate practices related to the disease. This baseline information is essential to design effective strategies and improve adherence to prevention measures.To identify the COVID-19-related KAP in Venezuelan patients screened at the Hospital Universitario de Caracas triage tent.We conducted a cross-sectional study among 215 patients between April 25th and May 25th, 2020, with in-person interviews using a KAP survey.Most surveyed patients (53.5%) were asymptomatic. Most of them, both from the symptomatic and the asymptomatic groups, had adequate knowledge about the symptoms and transmission of the disease and the majority said they were practicing quarantine, frequent handwashing, and the use of face masks in public areas. However, the daily replacement of cloth face masks was more frequent in the asymptomatic group whereas replacement every three days was more frequent in the symptomatic group. Finally, more than half of the participants admitted having been in crowded places, a common practice among the symptomatic compared to the asymptomatic patients.This is the first KAP study in Venezuela about COVID-19. Knowledge and practices among Venezuelans could be improved by strengthening education and training programs. This information from the early phase of the pandemic in Venezuela may contribute to the design of COVID-19 promotion and prevention strategies.Introducción: Los estudios sobre conocimientos, actitudes y prácticas (CAP) sobre COVID-19 ayudan a identificar conceptos erróneos y prácticas inadecuadas relacionadas con la enfermedad. Esta información de referencia es fundamental para diseñar estrategias efectivas y mejorar la adherencia a las medidas de prevención. Objetivo: Identificar la CAP relacionada con COVID-19 en pacientes venezolanos cribados en la carpa de triaje del Hospital Universitario de Caracas. Materiales y métodos: Realizamos un estudio transversal entre 215 pacientes entre el 25 de abril y el 25 de mayo de 2020, con entrevistas en persona utilizando una encuesta KAP. Resultados: La mayoría de los pacientes encuestados (53,5%) se encontraban asintomáticos. La mayoría de ellos, tanto del grupo sintomático como asintomático, tenían un conocimiento adecuado sobre los síntomas y la transmisión de la enfermedad y la mayoría dijo que practicaban la cuarentena, el lavado frecuente de manos y el uso de mascarillas en las áreas públicas. Sin embargo, el reemplazo diario de mascarillas de tela fue más frecuente en el grupo asintomático, mientras que el reemplazo cada tres días fue más frecuente en el grupo sintomático. Finalmente, más de la mitad de los participantes admitieron haber estado en lugares concurridos, una práctica común entre los sintomáticos en comparación con los asintomáticos. Conclusiones: Este es el primer estudio CAP en Venezuela sobre COVID-19. El conocimiento y las prácticas entre los venezolanos podrían mejorarse fortaleciendo los programas de educación y capacitación. Esta información de la fase inicial de la pandemia en Venezuela puede contribuir al diseño de estrategias de promoción y prevención del COVID-19.

Study objective To develop a novel predictive model for emergency department (ED) hourly occupancy using readily available data at time of prediction with a time series analysis methodology. Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of all ED visits from a large academic center during calendar year 2012 to predict ED hourly occupancy. Due to the time-of-day and day-of-week effects, a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with external regressor (SARIMAX) model was selected. For each hour of a day, a SARIMAX model was built to predict ED occupancy up to 4-h ahead. We compared the resulting model forecast accuracy and prediction intervals with previously studied time series forecasting methods. Results The study population included 65,132 ED visits at a large academic medical center during the year 2012. All adult ED visits during the first 265 days were used as a training dataset, while the remaining ED visits comprised the testing dataset. A SARIMAX model performed best with external regressors of current ED occupancy, average department-wide ESI, and ED boarding total at predicting up to 4-h-ahead ED occupancy (Mean Square Error (MSE) of 16.20, and 64.47 for 1-hr- and 4-h- ahead occupancy, respectively). Our 24-SARIMAX model outperformed other popular time series forecasting techniques, including a 60% improvement in MSE over the commonly used rolling average method, while maintaining similar prediction intervals. Conclusion Accounting for current ED occupancy, average department-wide ESI, and boarding total, a 24-SARIMAX model was able to provide up to 4 h ahead predictions of ED occupancy with improved performance characteristics compared to other forecasting methods, including the rolling average. The prediction intervals generated by this method used data readily available in most EDs and suggest a promising new technique to forecast ED occupancy in real time.

Background Access to emergency department (ED) services is important for patients with acute asthma; however, ED crowding may impact the quality of care and compromise outcomes. We examine the association between ED crowding metrics and individual patient outcomes for adults presenting with asthma. Methods This population-based retrospective cohort study extracted all ED presentations made by patients aged 18 to 55 years to 18 high-volume EDs in Alberta from April 2014 to March 2019. Physician initial assessment (PIA) time and ED length of stay (LOS) for discharged and admitted patients were calculated. Other metrics and patient outcomes were also obtained. Linear and generalized linear models were fit for continuous and categorical outcomes. Cox proportional hazards models were used for time-to-event outcomes. Results There were 17,724 ED presentations by 12,569 adults. The median age was 33 years, and females (58.7%) made more presentations. ED crowding affected the PIA time for all triage groups. For the high acuity group (Canadian Triage and Acuity Scale [CTAS] 1/2), 1 h increase in median facility-specific PIA was associated with 26 min (95%CI: 24,28) increase; for the moderate acuity (CTAS 3) and low acuity (CTAS 4/5) groups, the individual-level PIA increased by 54 min (95%CI: 53,55) and 61 min (95%CI: 59,63), respectively adjusted by other predictors. Increases in facility PIA resulted in increase in odds of admissions for the high acuity group and increase odds of left without completion of care for the moderate and low acuity groups. Conclusion The care provided for patients from all triage groups was impacted when EDs experienced crowding. Effective interventions are needed to mitigate ED crowding and improve care and outcomes for this important patient group.

Objectives Respiratory tract infection (RTI) incidence varies between people, but little is known about why. The aim of this study is therefore to identify risk factors for acquiring RTIs. Methods We conducted a secondary analysis of 16,908 participants in the PRIMIT study, a pre-pandemic randomised trial showing handwashing reduced incidence of RTIs in the community. Data was analysed using multivariable logistic regression analyses of self-reported RTI acquisition. Results After controlling for handwashing, RTI in the previous year (1 to 2 RTIs: adjusted OR 1.96, 95% CI 1.79 to 2.13, p Conclusions Previous RTIs, chronic lung conditions, skin conditions that prevent handwashing, and the presence of household children predispose to RTI acquisition. Further research is needed to understand how host and microbial factors explain the relationship between previous and future RTIs.

Background: Injuries contribute to morbidity and mortality in children. This study was carried out to describe the pattern of childhood injuries and associated risk factors in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Methods: This case control study was conducted in six selected health facilities in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Data were col- lected using a structured questionnaire. Cases and controls were children below 18 years who had suffered injuries and those without injury associated condition respectively. Results: A total of 492 cases and 492 controls were included in the study, falls (32%), burns (26%), Road Traffic Injuries (14%) and cuts (10%) were the major types of injuries identified. Younger parents/guardians {Adjusted odds ratio (AOR)= 1.4; 95% CI: 1.4 -3.6}, more than six people in the same house (AOR= 1.8; 95% CI: 1.3-2.6), more than three children in the house {AOR= 1.4; 95% CI (1.0-2.0)}, absence of parent/guardian at time of injury occurrence (AOR= 1.6; 95% CI: 1.1-2.3), middle socio-economic (AOR=1.6; 95%CI: 1.1-2.4) and low socio-economic status (AOR= 1.5; 95% CI: 1.0-2.1) were independent risk factors for childhood injury. Conclusion: Falls, burns and road traffic injuries were the main injury types in this study. Inadequate supervision, over- crowding, lower socio-economic status and low maternal age were significant risk factors for childhood injuries. Keywords: Childhood injuries; risk factors; Dar es Salaam; Tanzania.

During July 2021, 469 cases of COVID-19 associated with multiple summer events and large public gatherings in a town in Barnstable County, Massachusetts, were identified among Massachusetts residents; vaccination coverage among eligible Massachusetts residents was 69%. Approximately three quarters (346; 74%) of cases occurred in fully vaccinated persons (those who had completed a 2-dose course of mRNA vaccine [Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna] or had received a single dose of Janssen [Johnson & Johnson] vaccine ≥14 days before exposure). Genomic sequencing of specimens from 133 patients identified the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, in 119 (89%) and the Delta AY.3 sublineage in one (1%). Overall, 274 (79%) vaccinated patients with breakthrough infection were symptomatic. Among five COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized, four were fully vaccinated; no deaths were reported. Real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) cycle threshold (Ct) values in specimens from 127 vaccinated persons with breakthrough cases were similar to those from 84 persons who were unvaccinated, not fully vaccinated, or whose vaccination status was unknown (median = 22.77 and 21.54, respectively). The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 is highly transmissible (1); vaccination is the most important strategy to prevent severe illness and death. On July 27, CDC recommended that all persons, including those who are fully vaccinated, should wear masks in indoor public settings in areas where COVID-19 transmission is high or substantial.* Findings from this investigation suggest that even jurisdictions without substantial or high COVID-19 transmission might consider expanding prevention strategies, including masking in indoor public settings regardless of vaccination status, given the potential risk of infection during attendance at large public gatherings that include travelers from many areas with differing levels of transmission.

BackgroundPhysicians do not prescribe opioid analgesics for pain treatment equally across groups, and such disparities may pose significant public health concerns. Although research suggests that institutional constraints and cultural stereotypes influence doctors’ treatment of pain, prior quantitative evidence is mixed. The objective of this secondary analysis is therefore to clarify which institutional constraints and patient demographics bias provider prescribing of opioid analgesics.MethodsWe used electronic medical record data from an emergency department of a large U.S hospital during years 2008–2014. We ran multi-level logistic regression models to estimate factors associated with providing an opioid prescription during a given visit while controlling for ICD-9 diagnosis codes and between-patient heterogeneity.ResultsA total of 180,829 patient visits for 63,513 unique patients were recorded during the period of analysis. Overall, providers were significantly less likely to prescribe opioids to the same individual patient when the visit occurred during higher rates of emergency department crowding, later times of day, earlier in the week, later years in our sample, and when the patient had received fewer previous opioid prescriptions. Across all patients, providers were significantly more likely to prescribe opioids to patients who were middle-aged, white, and married. We found no bias towards women and no interaction effects between race and crowding or between race and sex.ConclusionsProviders tend to prescribe fewer opioids during constrained diagnostic situations and undertreat pain for patients from high-risk and marginalized demographic groups. Potential harms resulting from previous treatment decisions may accumulate by informing future treatment decisions.

Background: Research exploring associations between exposure to social determinants of health and breastfeeding is needed to identify breastfeeding barriers. Housing insecurity and household conditions (chaos and crowding) may affect breastfeeding by increasing maternal stress and discomfort and decreasing time available to breastfeed. Research Aim: We aimed to examine the relationships between housing insecurity, breastfeeding exclusivity intention during the early postnatal period, and breastfeeding exclusivity at 6 months postpartum among a sample “at risk” for suboptimal breastfeeding rates. Methods: This study is a secondary data analysis of a longitudinal study at two time periods. Data were collected from English- and Spanish-speaking, Medicaid-eligible mother-infant dyads ( N = 361) at near-birth and child aged 6 months, in New York City and Pittsburgh. Structural equation modeling was used to examine direct and indirect effects of housing insecurity on breastfeeding exclusivity at child aged 6 months. Results: The path model showed that experiencing more markers of housing insecurity (i.e., foreclosure/eviction threat, history of homelessness, late rent) was predictive of significantly lower breastfeeding exclusivity at 6 months. This was partially mediated through less exclusive breastfeeding intention during the early postnatal period. Greater household crowding was associated with 6-month breastfeeding exclusivity when mediated by intention. Household crowding had differential effects by study site and participant race/ethnicity. Conclusion: Refinement of housing insecurity as a multi-dimensional construct can lead to the development of standardized data collection instruments, inform future methodological decisions in research addressing social determinants of health, and can inform the development of responsive individual- and structural-level interventions. The data used in this study were collected as part of the SMART Beginnings Randomized Controlled Trial (NCT02459327 registered at ClinicalTrials.gov).

This study analyzes the influence of grandmothers’ household residency on the presence of low height-for-age and excessive fat (FMI = fat mass [kg]/height [m2]), waist circumference, and sum of triceps and subscapular skinfolds in a sample of 247 6- to 8-year-old urban Maya children from Yucatan, Mexico. Between September 2011 and January 2014, we obtained anthropometric and body composition data from children and mothers, as well as socioeconomic characteristics of participants and households. Grandmothers’ place of residence was categorized as either in the same household as their grandchildren (n = 71) or in separate households (n = 176). Multiple logistic regression models were used to analyze the association between grandmothers’ residency and outcome variables. Models were adjusted for maternal anthropometric characteristics and the following socioeconomic variables: family size, location, maternal education, monthly family income, and household crowding. Models showed that the presence of grandmothers in their grandchildren’s households was not associated with any of the outcome variables. In contrast, larger family size, overcrowding in the household, and lower family income predicted low height-for-age in children. Larger family size decreased the risk for being overweight based on the three parameters of body composition. Overcrowding in the household increased the risk for greater skinfolds thickness, while low family income increased the risk for higher fat mass index. The residency of grandmothers in their adult daughters’ households is not significantly associated with the outcome variables in this sample of urban Maya families. Instead, maternal anthropometric characteristics and socioeconomic conditions of the family have a greater influence on the overall growth of children.

The Arba'een pilgrimage in Iraq is now the largest annual gathering in a single place worldwide. To monitor and address the health needs of pilgrims in field clinics near the pilgrimage route, a syndromic surveillance system was designed and implemented by Global Health Development/Eastern Mediterranean Public Health Network in collaboration with Iraq Ministry of Health. This study aimed to analyze the effectiveness of the surveillance system and the data it gathered in evaluating the burden of common acute and infectious conditions, chronic conditions, and trauma and injuries during the Arba'een pilgrimage in 2018. Data were collected at 152 field clinics located across 11 governorates in Iraq at strategic points along the Arba'een pilgrimage route from all governorates to Karbala between October 8 and November 3, 2018. A team of 24 surveillance supervisors trained, oversaw, and provided technical support for 304 data collectors. The data collectors recorded data from 338,399 patients (42.5% female and 57.5% male) in the span of 26 days. The vast majority of patients were from Iraq (n = 294,260, 87.6%) and Iran (n = 34,691, 10.3%). Of the 338,399 patients whose data were recorded by the surveillance system, 246,469 (72.8%) reported acute and infectious conditions, 202,032 (59.70%) reported chronic conditions, and 6,737 (2.0%) reported traumas and injuries. Many patients reported several conditions in multiple categories. The most prevalent acute condition treated was influenza-like illness, identified through patients exhibiting a combination of fever and cough symptoms. Findings from this study will help inform future planning efforts so healthcare workers can be better prepared for treating such cases at mass gatherings. With the latest challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, preparations for a possible future outbreak of the novel coronavirus are also discussed. The information from this study serves as a foundation to inform and optimize future planning of wide-scale surveillance efforts and address challenges in health service delivery and health security.

Poor housing conditions and household crowding have been identified as important health concerns for Indigenous populations in many countries but have not been explored in relation to adverse birth outcomes in these populations. We investigated housing conditions and adverse birth outcomes in a nationally representative sample of Indigenous people in Canada.Data were from a cohort of births between May 2004 and May 2006 created by linking birth and infant death registration data with the 2006 Canadian census. Log-binomial regression was used to examine associations between housing variables (persons per room and needed household repairs) and three adverse birth outcomes: preterm birth (PTB), small-for-gestational-age (SGA) birth, and infant mortality. Separate regression models were run for First Nations, Métis and Inuit mothers, with adjustment for parity and parental socio-economic variables.Need for major household repairs was associated with a slightly increased risk of PTB among First Nations and Métis mothers (adjusted RRs 1.12 and 1.13, respectively; 95% CI 0.94-1.34 and 0.89-1.44, respectively) and a moderately increased risk of infant death in all three groups (aRR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.00-2.85). Household crowding was also associated with a slightly elevated risk of PTB in all three groups (aRR = 1.10, 95% CI 0.95-1.29) and with an increased risk of infant mortality among First Nations (aRR = 1.57, 95% CI 0.97-2.53).This study highlights the need to improve understanding of links between housing conditions and perinatal health outcomes in Indigenous populations, including examining cause-specific infant mortality in relation to housing characteristics.RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: Les mauvaises conditions de logement et le surpeuplement ont été identifiés dans plusieurs pays comme étant des enjeux importants de santé chez les populations autochtones. Cependant, aucune étude n’a exploré les conditions de logement en lien avec les issues défavorables de la grossesse dans ces populations. C’est ce que nous avons examiné dans une cohorte de naissances de mères autochtones au Canada, représentative à l’échelle nationale. MéTHODES: Nous avons analysé une cohorte de naissances survenues entre mai 2004 et mai 2006. Cette cohorte a été créée en couplant les données d’enregistrement des naissances et des décès avec les données du Recensement du Canada de 2006. Nous avons utilisé une régression binomiale logarithmique pour estimer les associations entre les conditions de logement (nombre de personnes par chambre et besoins de réparation du logement) et les taux de trois issues défavorables de la grossesse (naissance prématurée, les nouveau-nés petits pour l’âge gestationnel et la mortalité infantile). Des modèles séparés ont été construits pour les femmes des Premières Nations, inuites et métisses, en ajustant les analyses pour la parité et les variables socioéconomiques parentales. RéSULTATS: Les besoins de réparation du logement ont été associés avec un risque ajusté légèrement augmenté de naissance prématurée parmi les mères des Premières Nations et métisses (RRs ajustés : 1,12 et 1,13, respectivement; IC de 95 % : 0,94, 1,34 et 0,89, 1,44, respectivement) et avec un risque modérément élevé de la mortalité infantile dans les trois groupes (RRa = 1,69, IC de 95 % : 1,00, 2,85). Le surpeuplement du logement a été associé avec un risque légèrement augmenté de la naissance prématurée dans les trois groupes (RRa = 1,10, IC de 95 % : 0,95, 1,29) et avec un risque élevé de la mortalité infantile parmi les Premières Nations (RRa = 1,57, IC de 95 % : 0,97, 2,53). CONCLUSION: Cette étude souligne le besoin d’améliorer notre connaissance des liens entre les conditions du logement et les issues de la santé périnatale au sein des populations autochtones, y compris l’étude de la mortalité infantile par cause en association avec les conditions de logement.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi emerged amidst widespread anti-government demonstrations and subsequent mass gatherings. This paper describes the incidence and factors associated with the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi. Methodology: This was a retrospective study of public data analysing geopolitical and immigration activities that occurred between 02 April and 08 September 2020. The Chi-square test of independence was used to tabulate sex and age-related fatality ratios among deaths due to COVID-19-related complications. Results: The drivers for COVID-19 spread were mass gatherings secondary to the country’s political landscape and repatriation of citizens from high-risk areas coupled with minimum use of public health interventions. The prevalence was higher in people aged 50–59 years, males and in urban areas. Men had an increased risk of COVID-19-related deaths (Case Fatality Ratio: 1.58 (95% CI 1.11–2.22) compared with women. Furthermore, men and women aged ≥40 years were 16.1 times and 7.1 times more likely to die of COVID-related complications, respectively. Men aged ≥40 years had a 62% increased risk of deaths compared with women of the same age group. Conclusion: Mass political gatherings and cross-border immigration from high-risk areas were drivers for infection. Males, older age and urban residence were associated with increased COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. To control the spread of COVID-19 there is a need to regulate mass gatherings and repatriation of citizens, and strengthen the use of preventive health interventions. Men, the older age groups and urban areas should be prioritised for COVID-19 prevention strategies.

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is almost entirely preventable, but the incidence in indigenous Australians remains one of the highest in the world. A community-based echocardiogram screening program of 862 Torres Strait Islander children identified 25 (2.9%) new cases of RHD. Among these 25 children, 5/7 (71%) prior acute rheumatic fever presentations had not been recognized. There was a history of microbiologically confirmed group A Streptococcus infection in 17/25 (68%) children with RHD compared with 9/25 (36%) controls (odds ratio [OR] [95% CI]: 3.78 [1.17-12.19], P = 0.03). This was more likely to be a skin swab (16/25 [64%] cases versus 6/25 [24%] controls) than a throat swab (1/25 [4%] cases versus 3/25 [12%] controls) (OR [95% CI]: 5.33 [1.51-18.90] [P = 0.01]), supporting a role for skin infection in RHD pathogenesis. Household crowding and unemployment were common in the cohort, emphasizing the need for prioritizing strategies that address the social determinants of health. This study explores the burden of rheumatic heart disease diagnosed during an echocardiogram screening program in the Torres Strait Islands in tropical Australia and highlights the importance of primordial and primary prevention.

Background: In 1861, Hagelloch, an isolated village in Germany, experienced a measles epidemic, which affected nearly all children under 14 years of age. We examined determinants of severe measles. Methods: A contemporary medical thesis by Albert Pfeilsticker had sufficient information on timing of measles cases within all households in the village to make it possible to determine who were index cases, infected outside the household, and who were secondary cases, infected after exposure in the household. Results: The measles case fatality ratio (CFR) was 6.4% (12/187); 10.0% (7/70) for children under five years of age. The youngest class in the local school was the epicentre of the epidemic; all children aged 7-9 years contracted measles at school and became index cases in their own families. The frequency of secondary cases was higher among younger and older children. Overall 44% (82/187) of the children were secondary cases. Secondary cases tended to have higher CFR than index cases (RR=3.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.91-10.07)), whereas there was less difference in the risk of complications (RR=1.34 (0.78-2.28)). The CFR was higher for boys than girls (4.46 (1.03-19.22)), and boys were more likely to suffer severe complications than girls (RR=1.73 (0.97-3.08)). Boys who were infected by a girl had higher CFR than boys infected by other boys (RR=6.30 (1.18-85.64)). Children under five years of age, who survived measles infection, did not have higher mortality in 1862; the 11 children who had not had measles in 1861 had a RR of dying in 1862 of 4.17 (1.22-14.28) compared with those who had measles in 1861. Conclusion: When measles was severe in Europe, the determinants of fatal infection were similar to those observed more recently in low-income countries. Changes in intensity of exposure within the home, due to smaller family size, better housing, and more public childcare, may have been major causes of the mortality decline in the industrialized countries during the 19th and the early 20th centuries. Funding: PA has received support from the Danish Council for Development Research, the Danish Medical Research Council, the Danish National Research Foundation and the Novo Nordisk Foundation. Declaration of Interest: None to declare.

ObjectivesCOVID-19 lockdown measures have challenged people’s mental health, especially among economically vulnerable households. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of exposure to COVID-19 shocks (defined as job loss, living cost pressures and changing housing conditions throughout the lockdown period) and double precarity (defined as precarity in housing and employment) on mental health outcomes for members of share households as well as the mediating effects of a range of resources.DesignWe conducted a two-wave survey of occupants of share housing in June and October 2020 during a prolonged period of population lockdown. Research design involved fixed effects ordered logit regression models to assess the mental health consequences of baseline precarity and COVID-related shocks.SettingVictoria, Australia.ParticipantsWe surveyed 293 occupants of share houses (mean age 34 SD 11.5, 56% female). Members of share houses (where individuals are unrelated adults and not in a romantic relationship) are more likely to be young, casually employed, visa-holders and low-income.Outcome measuresWe measured household composition, housing and employment precarity, access to government support, household crowding, social networks and COVID-19 shocks. We used a self-reported measure of mental health.ResultsThose exposed to COVID-19 shocks reported a 2.7 times higher odds of mental health deterioration (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.53 to 4.85). People exposed to double precarity (precarity in both housing and employment) reported 2.4 times higher odds of mental health deterioration (OR 2.4, 95% CI 0.99 to 5.69). Housing inadequacy and lack of access to sufficient government payments explained 14.7% and 7% of the total effect of double precarity on mental health, respectively.ConclusionsResults indicate that residents of group households characterised by pre-existing precarity were vulnerable to negative mental health effects during lockdown. Access to sufficient government payments and adequate housing buffered this negative effect.

International audience; Crowd motion data is fundamental for understanding and simulating realistic crowd behaviours. Such data is usually collected through controlled experiments to ensure that both desired individual interactions and collective behaviours can be observed. It is however scarce, due to ethical concerns and logistical difficulties involved in its gathering, and only covers a few typical crowd scenarios. In this work, we propose and evaluate a novel Virtual Reality based approach lifting the limitations of real-world experiments for the acquisition of crowd motion data. Our approach immerses a single user in virtual scenarios where he/she successively acts each crowd member. By recording the past trajectories and body movements of the user, and displaying them on virtual characters, the user progressively builds the overall crowd behaviour by him/herself. We validate the feasibility of our approach by replicating three real experiments, and compare both the resulting emergent phenomena and the individual interactions to existing real datasets. Our results suggest that realistic collective behaviours can naturally emerge from virtual crowd data generated using our approach, even though the variety in behaviours is lower than in real situations. These results provide valuable insights to the building of virtual crowd experiences, and reveal key directions for further improvements.

Background Heterogeneity in COVID-19 morbidity and mortality is often associated with a country's health-services structure and social inequality. This study aimed to characterize social inequalities in COVID-19 mortality in São Paulo, the most populous city in Brazil and Latin America. Methods We conducted a population-based study, including COVID-19 deaths among São Paulo residents from March to September 2020. Age-standardized mortality rates and unadjusted rate ratios (RRs) [with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs)] were estimated by race, sex, age group, district of residence, household crowding, educational attainment, income level and percentage of households in subnormal areas in each district. Time trends in mortality were assessed using the Joinpoint model. Results Males presented an 84% increase in COVID-19 mortality compared with females (RR = 1.84, 95% CI 1.79–1.90). Higher mortality rates were observed for Blacks (RR = 1.77, 95% CI 1.67–1.88) and mixed (RR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.37–1.47) compared with Whites, whereas lower mortality was noted for Asians (RR = 0.63, 95% CI 0.58–0.68). A positive gradient was found for all socio-economic indicators, i.e. increases in disparities denoted by less education, more household crowding, lower income and a higher concentration of subnormal areas were associated with higher mortality rates. A decrease in mortality over time was observed in all racial groups, but it started earlier among Whites and Asians. Conclusion Our results reveal striking social inequalities in COVID-19 mortality in São Paulo, exposing structural inequities in Brazilian society that were not addressed by the governmental response to COVID-19. Without an equitable response, COVID-19 will further exacerbate current social inequalities in São Paulo.

Investigate factors associated with symptoms of postpartum depression in mothers from families in social vulnerability.Information was used from the baseline of a randomized trial to assess a child development program that enrolled 3,242 children12 months of age from beneficiary families of the Bolsa Família Program residing in 30 municipalities (counties) in six states of Brazil. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) was applied to the mothers, and depression was defined as score ≥10. Information on the mother (schooling, age, parity, marital status, skin color, smoking, number of prenatal appointments, and planning of the pregnancy), family (paternal schooling, household crowding, support from the child's father and the family during the pregnancy, and number of children under 7 years living in the household), and infant (sex, gestational age, birthweight, Apgar score, and child's age at the time of the interview) was collected. Prevalence rates for depressive symptoms were calculated with crude and adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI), using hierarchical logistic regression, in a multilevel model.The analysis included 3,174 mothers with information on EPDS. The interviews were conducted on average 7.9 months (standard deviation= 2.9) after childbirth. Overall prevalence of depressive symptoms was 26.5% (25.0-28.1%). In the adjusted analysis, higher parity was associated with higher odds of postpartum depression (p0.001). Women with ≥3 previous deliveries showed an odds 84% higher of presenting depressive symptoms (OR= 1.84; 1.43-2.35) than primiparae. Higher maternal and paternal schooling, presence of husband or partner, and having received support from the child's father and the family during the pregnancy were protective factors against postpartum depression.The study showed high prevalence of postpartum depressive symptoms. Promotion of parental education, alongside with the promotion of support to the woman during pregnancy by the child's father and by the family, as well as family planning leading to birth spacing are measures that may help to prevent postpartum depressive symptoms.

Objective To develop a novel model for predicting Emergency Department (ED) prolonged length of stay (LOS) patients upon triage completion, and further investigate the benefit of a targeted intervention for patients with prolonged ED LOS. Materials and methods A two-step model to predict patients with prolonged ED LOS (>16 h) was constructed. This model was initially used to predict ED resource usage and was subsequently adapted to predict patient ED LOS based on the number of ED resources using binary logistic regressions and was validated internally with accuracy. Finally, a discrete event simulation was used to move patients with predicted prolonged ED LOS directly to a virtual Clinical Decision Unit (CDU). The changes of ED crowding status (Overcrowding, Crowding, and Not-Crowding) and savings of ED bed-hour equivalents were estimated as the measures of the efficacy of this intervention. Results We screened a total of 123,975 patient visits with final enrollment of 110,471 patient visits. The overall accuracy of the final model predicting prolonged patient LOS was 67.8%. The C-index of this model ranges from 0.72 to 0.82. By implementing the proposed intervention, the simulation showed a 12% (1044/8760) reduction of ED overcrowded status – an equivalent savings of 129.3 ED bed-hours per day. Conclusions Early prediction of prolonged ED LOS patients and subsequent (simulated) early CDU transfer could lead to more efficiently utilization of ED resources and improved efficacy of ED operations. This study provides evidence to support the implementation of this novel intervention into real healthcare practice.