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BackgroundGenome-wide association studies have reported that genetic variation at ANRIL (CDKN2B-AS1) is associated with risk of several chronic diseases including coronary artery disease, coronary artery calcification, myocardial infarction, and type 2 diabetes mellitus. ANRIL is located at the CDKN2A/B locus, which encodes multiple melanoma tumor suppressors. We investigated the association of these variants with melanoma prognostic characteristics.MethodsThe Genes, Environment, and Melanoma Study enrolled 3,285 European origin participants with incident invasive primary melanoma. For each of ten disease-associated SNPs at or near ANRIL, we used linear and logistic regression modeling to estimate, respectively, the per allele mean changes in log of Breslow thickness and ORs for presence of ulceration and tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL). We also assessed effect modification by tumor NRAS/BRAF mutational status.ResultsRs518394, rs10965215, and rs564398 passed false discovery and were each associated (P ≤ 0.005) with TILs, although only rs564398 was independently associated (P = 0.0005) with TILs. Stratified by NRAS/BRAF mutational status, rs564398*A was significantly positively associated with TILs among NRAS/BRAF mutant, but not wild-type, cases. We did not find SNP associations with Breslow thickness or ulceration.ConclusionsANRIL rs564398 was associated with TIL presence in primary melanomas, and this association may be limited to NRAS/BRAF-mutant cases.ImpactPathways related to ANRIL variants warrant exploration in relationship to TILs in melanoma, especially given the impact of TILs on immunotherapy and survival.

BackgroundGermline variants in the melanocortin 1 receptor gene (MC1R) might increase the risk of childhood and adolescent melanoma, but a clear conclusion is challenging because of the low number of studies and cases. We assessed the association of MC1R variants with childhood and adolescent melanoma in a large study comparing the prevalence of MC1R variants in child or adolescent patients with melanoma to that in adult patients with melanoma and in healthy adult controls.MethodsIn this retrospective pooled analysis, we used the M-SKIP Project, the Italian Melanoma Intergroup, and other European groups (with participants from Australia, Canada, France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, and the USA) to assemble an international multicentre cohort. We gathered phenotypic and genetic data from children or adolescents diagnosed with sporadic single-primary cutaneous melanoma at age 20 years or younger, adult patients with sporadic single-primary cutaneous melanoma diagnosed at age 35 years or older, and healthy adult individuals as controls. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) for childhood and adolescent melanoma associated with MC1R variants by multivariable logistic regression. Subgroup analysis was done for children aged 18 or younger and 14 years or younger.FindingsWe analysed data from 233 young patients, 932 adult patients, and 932 healthy adult controls. Children and adolescents had higher odds of carrying MC1R r variants than did adult patients (OR 1·54, 95% CI 1·02-2·33), including when analysis was restricted to patients aged 18 years or younger (1·80, 1·06-3·07). All investigated variants, except Arg160Trp, tended, to varying degrees, to have higher frequencies in young patients than in adult patients, with significantly higher frequencies found for Val60Leu (OR 1·60, 95% CI 1·05-2·44; p=0·04) and Asp294His (2·15, 1·05-4·40; p=0·04). Compared with those of healthy controls, young patients with melanoma had significantly higher frequencies of any MC1R variants.InterpretationOur pooled analysis of MC1R genetic data of young patients with melanoma showed that MC1R r variants were more prevalent in childhood and adolescent melanoma than in adult melanoma, especially in patients aged 18 years or younger. Our findings support the role of MC1R in childhood and adolescent melanoma susceptibility, with a potential clinical relevance for developing early melanoma detection and preventive strategies.FundingSPD-Pilot/Project-Award-2015; AIRC-MFAG-11831.

BRAF and NRAS mutations arise early in melanoma development, but their associations with low-penetrance melanoma susceptibility loci remain unknown. In the Genes, Environment and Melanoma Study, 1,223 European-origin participants had their incident invasive primary melanomas screened for BRAF/NRAS mutations and germline DNA genotyped for 47 single-nucleotide polymorphisms identified as low-penetrant melanoma-risk variants. We used multinomial logistic regression to simultaneously examine each single-nucleotide polymorphism's relationship to BRAF V600E, BRAF V600K, BRAF other, and NRAS+ relative to BRAF-/NRAS- melanoma adjusted for study features. IRF4 rs12203592*T was associated with BRAF V600E (odds ratio [OR] = 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.43-0.79) and V600K (OR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.41-1.03), but not BRAF other or NRAS+ melanoma. A global test of etiologic heterogeneity (Pglobal = 0.001) passed false discovery (Pglobal = 0.0026). PLA2G6 rs132985*T was associated with BRAF V600E (OR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.05-1.67) and BRAF other (OR = 1.82, 95% CI = 1.11-2.98), but not BRAF V600K or NRAS+ melanoma. The test for etiologic heterogeneity (Pglobal) was 0.005. The IRF4 rs12203592 associations were slightly attenuated after adjustment for melanoma-risk phenotypes. The PLA2G6 rs132985 associations were independent of phenotypes. IRF4 and PLA2G6 inherited genotypes may influence melanoma BRAF/NRAS subtype development.

Evidence on the relationship between the vitamin D pathway and outcomes in melanoma is growing, although it is not always clear. We investigated the impact of measured levels of sun exposure at diagnosis on associations of vitamin D receptor gene (VDR) polymorphisms and melanoma death in 3336 incident primary melanoma cases. Interactions between six SNPs and a common 3'-end haplotype were significant (p

Associations of MC1R with BRAF mutations in melanoma have been inconsistent between studies. We sought to determine for 1,227 participants in the international population-based Genes, Environment, and Melanoma (GEM) study whether MC1R and phenotypes were associated with melanoma BRAF/NRAS subtypes. We used logistic regression adjusted by age, sex, and study design features and examined effect modifications. BRAF+ were associated with younger age, blond/light brown hair, increased nevi, and less freckling, and NRAS+ with older age relative to the wild type (BRAF-/NRAS-) melanomas (all P < 0.05). Comparing specific BRAF subtypes to the wild type, BRAF V600E was associated with younger age, blond/light brown hair, and increased nevi and V600K with increased nevi and less freckling (all P < 0.05). MC1R was positively associated with BRAF V600E cases but only among individuals with darker phototypes or darker hair (Pinteraction < 0.05) but inversely associated with BRAF V600K (Ptrend = 0.006) with no significant effect modification by phenotypes. These results support distinct etiologies for BRAF V600E, BRAF V600K, NRAS+, and wild-type melanomas. MC1R's associations with BRAF V600E cases limited to individuals with darker phenotypes indicate that MC1R genotypes specifically provide information about BRAF V600E melanoma risk in those not considered high risk based on phenotype. Our results also suggest that melanin pathways deserve further study in BRAF V600E melanomagenesis.

ImportanceWe previously reported that survival is poorer from histopathologically amelanotic than pigmented melanoma because of more advanced stage at diagnosis. Identifying patients at risk of amelanotic melanoma might enable earlier diagnosis and improved survival; however, the phenotypic characteristics and underlying genetics associated with amelanotic melanoma are unknown.ObjectiveTo determine whether phenotypic characteristics, carriage of MC1R variants, and history of amelanotic melanoma are associated with histopathologically amelanotic melanoma.Design, setting, and participantsThe Genes, Environment, and Melanoma (GEM) study is an international cohort study that enrolled patients with incident primary cutaneous melanomas from population-based and hospital-based cancer registries (1998 to 2003). The GEM participants included here were 2387 patients with data for phenotypes, MC1R genotype, and primary melanomas scored for histopathologic pigmentation. Of these 2387 patients with incident melanomas scored for pigmentation, 527 had prior primary melanomas also scored for pigmentation.Main outcomes and measuresAssociations of phenotypic characteristics (freckles, nevi, phenotypic index) and MC1R status with incident amelanotic melanomas were evaluated using logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, study center, and primary status (single or multiple primary melanoma); odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs are reported. Association of histopathologic pigmentation between incident and prior melanomas was analyzed using an exact logistic regression model.ResultsThis study included 2387 patients (1065 women, 1322 men; mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 58.3 [16.1] years) and 2917 primary melanomas. In a multivariable model including phenotypic characteristics, absence of back nevi, presence of many freckles, and a sun-sensitive phenotypic index were independently associated with amelanotic melanoma. Carriage of MC1R variants was associated with amelanotic melanoma but lost statistical significance in a model with phenotype. Further, patients with incident primary amelanotic melanomas were more likely to have had a prior primary amelanotic melanoma (OR, 4.62; 95% CI, 1.25-14.13) than those with incident primary pigmented melanomas.Conclusions and relevanceAbsence of back nevi, presence of many freckles, a sun-sensitive phenotypic index, and prior amelanotic melanoma increase odds for development of amelanotic melanoma. An increased index of suspicion for melanoma in presenting nonpigmented lesions and more careful examination for signs of amelanotic melanoma during periodic skin examination in patients at increased odds of amelanotic melanoma might lead to earlier diagnosis and improved survival.

Autophagy has been linked with melanoma risk and survival, but no polymorphisms in autophagy-related (ATG) genes have been investigated in relation to melanoma progression. We examined five single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in three ATG genes (ATG5; ATG10; and ATG16L) with known or suspected impact on autophagic flux in an international population-based case-control study of melanoma. DNA from 911 melanoma patients was genotyped. An association was identified between (GG) (rs2241880) and earlier stage at diagnosis (OR 0.47; 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) = 0.27-0.81, P = 0.02) and a decrease in Breslow thickness (P = 0.03). The ATG16L heterozygous genotype (AG) (rs2241880) was associated with younger age at diagnosis (P = 0.02). Two SNPs in ATG5 were found to be associated with increased stage (rs2245214 CG, OR 1.47; 95% CI = 1.11-1.94, P = 0.03; rs510432 CC, OR 1.84; 95% CI = 1.12-3.02, P = 0.05). Finally, we identified inverse associations between ATG5 (GG rs2245214) and melanomas on the scalp or neck (OR 0.20, 95% CI = 0.05-0.86, P = 0.03); ATG10 (CC) (rs1864182) and brisk tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) (OR 0.42; 95% CI = 0.21-0.88, P = 0.02), and ATG5 (CC) (rs510432) with nonbrisk TILs (OR 0.55; 95% CI = 0.34-0.87, P = 0.01). Our data suggest that ATG SNPs might be differentially associated with specific host and tumor characteristics including age at diagnosis, TILs, and stage. These associations may be critical to understanding the role of autophagy in cancer, and further investigation will help characterize the contribution of these variants to melanoma progression.

Although nevus count is an established risk factor for melanoma, relationships between nevus number and patient and tumor characteristics have not been well studied and the influence of nevus count on melanoma-specific survival is equivocal. Using data from the Genes, Environment and Melanoma (GEM) study, a large population-based study of primary cutaneous melanoma, we evaluated associations between number of nevi and patient features, including sun-sensitivity summarized in a phenotypic index, and tumor characteristics. We also assessed the association of nevus count with melanoma-specific survival. Higher nevus counts were independently and positively associated with male gender and younger age at diagnosis, and they were inversely associated with lentigo maligna histology. We observed a borderline significant trend of poorer melanoma-specific survival with increasing quartile of nevus count, but little or no association between number of nevi and pigmentary phenotypic characteristics or prognostic tumor features.

BackgroundSolar elastosis and neval remnants are histologic markers characteristic of divergent melanoma pathways linked to differences in age at onset, host phenotype, and sun exposure. However, the association between these pathway markers and newly identified low-penetrance melanoma susceptibility loci remains unknown.MethodsIn the Genes, Environment and Melanoma (GEM) Study, 2103 Caucasian participants had first primary melanomas that underwent centralized pathology review. For 47 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously identified as low-penetrant melanoma risk variants, we used multinomial logistic regression to compare melanoma with solar elastosis and melanoma with neval remnants simultaneously to melanoma with neither of these markers, excluding melanomas with both markers. All statistical tests were two-sided.ResultsIRF4 rs12203592 was the only SNP to pass the false discovery threshold in baseline models adjusted for age, sex, and study center. rs12203592*T was associated positively with melanoma with solar elastosis (odds ratio [OR] = 1.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.18 to 1.82) and inversely with melanoma with neval remnants (OR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.48 to 0.87) compared with melanoma with neither marker (P global = 3.78 x 10(-08)). Adjusting for phenotypic characteristics and total sun exposure hours did not materially affect rs12203592's associations. Distinct early- and late-onset age distributions were observed in patients with IRF4 rs12203592 [CC] and [TT] genotypes, respectively.ConclusionsOur findings suggest a role of IRF4 rs12203592 in pathway-specific risk for melanoma development. We hypothesize that IRF4 rs12203592 could underlie in part the bimodal age distribution reported for melanoma and linked to the divergent pathways.

Factors known to affect melanoma survival include age at presentation, sex and tumor characteristics. Polymorphisms also appear to modulate survival following diagnosis. Result from other studies suggest that vitamin D receptor (VDR) polymorphisms (SNPs) impact survival in patients with glioma, renal cell carcinoma, lung, breast, prostate and other cancers; however, a comprehensive study of VDR polymorphisms and melanoma-specific survival is lacking. We aimed to investigate whether VDR genetic variation influences survival in patients with cutaneous melanoma. The analysis involved 3566 incident single and multiple primary melanoma cases enrolled in the international population-based Genes, Environment, and Melanoma Study. Melanoma-specific survival outcomes were calculated for each of 38 VDR SNPs using a competing risk analysis after adjustment for covariates. There were 254 (7.1%) deaths due to melanoma during the median 7.6 years follow-up period. VDR SNPs rs7299460, rs3782905, rs2239182, rs12370156, rs2238140, rs7305032, rs1544410 (BsmI) and rs731236 (TaqI) each had a statistically significant (trend P values < 0.05) association with melanoma-specific survival in multivariate analysis. One functional SNP (rs2239182) remained significant after adjustment for multiple testing using the Monte Carlo method. None of the SNPs associated with survival were significantly associated with Breslow thickness, ulceration or mitosis. These results suggest that the VDR gene may influence survival from melanoma, although the mechanism by which VDR exerts its effect does not seem driven by tumor aggressiveness. Further investigations are needed to confirm our results and to understand the relationship between VDR and survival in the combined context of tumor and host characteristics.

ImportanceNRAS and BRAF mutations in melanoma inform current treatment paradigms, but their role in survival from primary melanoma has not been established. Identification of patients at high risk of melanoma-related death based on their primary melanoma characteristics before evidence of recurrence could inform recommendations for patient follow-up and eligibility for adjuvant trials.ObjectiveTo determine tumor characteristics and survival from primary melanoma by somatic NRAS and BRAF status.Design, setting, and participantsA population-based study with a median follow-up of 7.6 years (through 2007), including 912 patients from the United States and Australia in the Genes, Environment, and Melanoma (GEM) Study, with first primary cutaneous melanoma diagnosed in the year 2000 and analyzed for NRAS and BRAF mutations.Main outcomes and measuresTumor characteristics and melanoma-specific survival of primary melanoma by NRAS and BRAF mutational status.ResultsThe melanomas were 13% NRAS+, 30% BRAF+, and 57% with neither NRAS nor BRAF mutation (wildtype [WT]). In a multivariable model including clinicopathologic characteristics, relative to WT melanoma (with results reported as odds ratios [95% CIs]), NRAS+ melanoma was associated with presence of mitoses (1.8 [1.0-3.3]), lower tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) grade (nonbrisk, 0.5 [0.3-0.8]; and brisk, 0.3 [0.5-0.7] [vs absent TILs]), and anatomic site other than scalp/neck (0.1 [0.01-0.6] for scalp/neck vs trunk/pelvis), and BRAF+ melanoma was associated with younger age (ages 50-69 years, 0.7 [0.5-1.0]; and ages >70 years, 0.5 [0.3-0.8] [vs

Melanocortin-1 receptor (MC1R) is a marker of melanoma risk in populations of European ancestry. However, MC1R effects on survival are much less studied. We investigated associations between variation at MC1R and survival in an international, population-based series of single primary melanoma patients enrolled into the Genes, Environment, and Melanoma study. MC1R genotype data was available for 2,200 participants with a first incident primary melanoma diagnosis. We estimated the association of MC1R genotypes with melanoma-specific survival (i.e., death caused by melanoma) and overall survival using COX proportional hazards modeling, adjusting for established prognostic factors for melanoma. We also conducted stratified analyses by Breslow thickness, tumor site, phenotypic index, and age. In addition, we evaluated haplotypes involving polymorphisms near the Agouti signaling protein gene (ASIP) locus for their impacts on survival. Melanoma-specific survival was inversely associated with carriage of MC1R variants in the absence of consensus alleles compared to carriage of at least one consensus allele (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.60; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.40, 0.90). MC1R results for overall survival were consistent with no association. We did not observe any statistical evidence of heterogeneity of effect estimates in stratified analyses. We observed increased hazard of melanoma-specific death among carriers of the risk haplotype TG near the ASIP locus (HR = 1.37; 95% CI: 0.91, 2.04) when compared to carriers of the most common GG haplotype. Similar results were noted for overall survival. Upon examining the ASIP TG/TG diplotype, we observed considerably increased hazard of melanoma-specific death (HR = 5.11; 95% CI: 1.88, 13.88) compared to carriers of the most common GG/GG diplotype. Our data suggest improved melanoma-specific survival among carriers of two inherited MC1R variants.

IMPORTANCE Previous studies have reported that histopathologically amelanotic melanoma is associated with poorer survival than pigmented melanoma; however, small numbers of amelanotic melanomas, selected populations, lack of centralized pathologic review, or no adjustment for stage limit the interpretation or generalization of results from prior studies.OBJECTIVE To compare melanoma-specific survival between patients with histopathologically amelanotic and those with pigmented melanoma in a large international population-based study.DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Survival analysis with a median follow-up of 7.6 years.The study population comprised 2995 patients with 3486 invasive primary melanomas centrally scored for histologic pigmentation from the Genes, Environment, and Melanoma(GEM) Study, which enrolled incident cases of melanoma diagnosed in 1998 through 2003 from international population-based cancer registries.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Clinicopathologic predictors and melanoma-specific survival of histologically amelanotic and pigmented melanoma were compared using generalized estimating equations and Cox regression models, respectively.RESULTS Of 3467 melanomas, 275 (8%) were histopathologically amelanotic. Female sex,nodular and unclassified or other histologic subtypes, increased Breslow thickness, presence of mitoses, severe solar elastosis, and lack of a coexisting nevus were independently associated with amelanotic melanoma (each P < .05). Amelanotic melanoma was generally ofa higher American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor stage at diagnosis (odds ratios[ORs] [95%CIs] between 2.9 [1.8-4.6] and 11.1 [5.8-21.2] for tumor stages between T1b and T3b and ORs [95%CIs] of 24.6 [13.6-44.4] for T4a and 29.1 [15.5-54.9] for T4b relative to T1a;P value for trend,

BackgroundWe previously reported a significant association between higher UV radiation exposure before diagnosis and greater survival with melanoma in a population-based study in Connecticut. We sought to evaluate the hypothesis that sun exposure before diagnosis was associated with greater survival in a larger, international population-based study with more detailed exposure information.MethodsWe conducted a multicenter, international population-based study in four countries-Australia, Italy, Canada, and the United States-with 3,578 cases of melanoma with an average of 7.4 years of follow-up. Measures of sun exposure included sunburn, intermittent exposure, hours of holiday sun exposure, hours of water-related outdoor activities, ambient ultraviolet B (280-320 nm) dose, histologic solar elastosis, and season of diagnosis.ResultsResults were not strongly supportive of the earlier hypothesis. Having had any sunburn in 1 year within 10 years of diagnosis was inversely associated with survival; solar elastosis-a measure of lifetime cumulative exposure-was not. In addition, none of the intermittent exposure measures-water-related activities and sunny holidays-were associated with melanoma-specific survival. Estimated ambient UVB dose was not associated with survival.ConclusionAlthough there was an apparent protective effect of sunburns within 10 years of diagnosis, there was only weak evidence in this large, international, population-based study of melanoma that sun exposure before diagnosis is associated with greater melanoma-specific survival.ImpactThis study adds to the evidence that sun exposure before melanoma diagnosis has little effect on survival with melanoma.

PURPOSE: Although most hospital-based studies suggest more favorable survival with tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) present in primary melanomas, it is uncertain whether TILs provide prognostic information beyond existing melanoma staging definitions. We addressed the issue in an international population-based study of patients with single and multiple primary melanomas. PATIENTS AND METHODS: On the basis of the Genes, Environment and Melanoma (GEM) study, we conducted follow-up of 2,845 patients diagnosed from 1998 to 2003 with 3,330 invasive primary melanomas centrally reviewed for TIL grade (absent, nonbrisk, or brisk). The odds of TIL grades associated with clinicopathologic features and survival by TIL grade were examined. RESULTS: Independent predictors (P < .05) for nonbrisk TIL grade were site, histologic subtype, and Breslow thickness, and for brisk TIL grade, they were age, site, Breslow thickness, and radial growth phase. Nonbrisk and brisk TIL grades were each associated with lower American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor stage compared with TIL absence (P(trend) < .001). Death as a result of melanoma was 30% less with nonbrisk TIL grade (hazard ratio [HR], 0.7; 95% CI, 0.5 to 1.0) and 50% less with brisk TIL grade (HR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.3 to 0.9) relative to TIL absence, adjusted for age, sex, site, and AJCC tumor stage. CONCLUSION: At the population level, higher TIL grade of primary melanoma is associated with a lower risk of death as a result of melanoma independently of tumor characteristics currently used for AJCC tumor stage. We conclude that TIL grade deserves further prospective investigation to determine whether it should be included in future AJCC staging revisions.

BackgroundThe population-based case-control study is not suited to the evaluation of rare genetic (or environmental) factors. The use of a novel case-control design in which cases have second primaries and controls are cancer survivors has been proposed for this purpose.MethodsWe report results from an international study of melanoma that involved population-based ascertainment of incident cases of second or subsequent primary melanoma as the 'case' group and incident cases of first primary melanoma as the 'control' group. We evaluate the validity of the study design by comparing the results obtained for phenotypic factors that have been shown consistently to be associated with melanoma in previous conventional studies with the results from a conventional case-control study conducted in Connecticut and from literature reviews.ResultsAll but one of the known risk factors for melanoma were shown to be significantly associated with melanoma in our study, though the individual odds ratios appear to be somewhat attenuated relative to the magnitudes typically observed in the literature.ConclusionsPatients with a second or subsequent primary cancer of a single type represent a potentially valuable and under-utilized resource for the study of cancer aetiology.

Polymorphisms in six genes involved in nucleotide excision repair of DNA were examined in a large population-based case-control study of melanoma. Genotyping was conducted for 2485 patients with a single primary melanoma (controls) and 1238 patients with second or higher order primary melanomas (cases). Patients were ascertained from nine geographic regions in Australia, Canada, Italy and the United States. Positive associations were observed for XPD 312 Asn/Asn versus Asp/Asp [odds ratio (OR) = 1.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-1.9] and XPD 751 Gln/Gln versus Lys/Lys (OR = 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.7) genotypes and melanoma. The combined XPD Asn (A) 312 + Gln (C) 751 haplotype was significantly more frequent in cases (32%) compared with controls (29%) (P = 0.003) and risk of melanoma increased significantly with one and two copies of the haplotype (ORs 1.2, 95% CI 1.0-1.4, and 1.6, 95% CI 1.2-2.0, trend P = 0.002). No significant associations were observed for HR23B codon 249, XPG codon 1104, XPC codon 939, XPF codon 415, XPF nt 2063, ERCC6 codon 1213 or ERCC6 codon 1230. ORs for XPD and XPC genotypes were stronger for melanoma diagnosed at an early age, but tests for interaction were not statistically significant. The results provide further evidence for a role of XPD in the etiology of melanoma.

BackgroundGermline mutations in the CDKN2A gene have been linked to melanoma incidence in many families with multiple cases of the disease. Previous studies of multiple-case families have indicated that the lifetime risk (i.e., penetrance) of melanoma in CDKN2A mutation carriers is very high, ranging from 58% in Europe to 91% in Australia by age 80 years. In this study, we examined lifetime melanoma risk among CDKN2A mutation carriers using carriers who were identified in a population-based study of melanoma.MethodsProbands for the study were incident case patients with either first or subsequent melanoma who were identified in nine geographic regions in Australia, Canada, the United States, and Italy. A total of 3626 probands (53% participation rate) with adequate DNA for analysis were recruited and genotyped for CDKN2A mutations. From the 3550 probands whose DNA could be amplified by polymerase chain reaction of CDKN2A exons 1alpha, 2, and 3 and surrounding regions, 65 mutation carriers were identified. Melanoma histories in first-degree relatives of these probands were used to calculate the lifetime risk in CDKN2A mutation carriers using the kin-cohort method.ResultsThe risk of melanoma in CDKN2A mutation carriers was approximately 14% (95% CI = 8% to 22%) by age 50 years, 24% (95% CI = 15% to 34%) by age 70 years, and 28% (95% CI = 18% to 40%) by age 80 years. Eighteen probands had three or more first-degree relatives with melanoma, but only one was a carrier of a CDKN2A mutation.ConclusionsCDKN2A mutation carriers in the general population have a much lower risk of melanoma than that suggested by estimates obtained from multiple-case families. The preponderance of familial clustering of melanoma occurs in families without identifiable mutations in CDKN2A.