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Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models for individuals with type 2 diabetes are important tools to guide intensification of interventions for CVD prevention. We aimed to assess the added value of incorporating risk factors variability in CVD risk prediction for people with type 2 diabetes. Methods We used electronic health records (EHRs) data from 83 910 adults with type 2 diabetes but without pre-existing CVD from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink for 2004–2017. Using a landmark-modelling approach, we developed and validated sex-specific Cox models, incorporating conventional predictors and trajectories plus variability of systolic blood pressure (SBP), total and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c). Such models were compared against simpler models using single last observed values or means. Results The standard deviations (SDs) of SBP, HDL cholesterol and HbA1c were associated with higher CVD risk (P Conclusion Incorporating variability of predictors from EHRs provides a modest improvement in CVD risk discrimination for individuals with type 2 diabetes. Given that repeat measures are readily available in EHRs especially for regularly monitored patients with diabetes, this improvement could easily be achieved.

(1) Aim: To investigate the causal effects of T2DM liability and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels on various cardiovascular disease outcomes, both in the general population and in non-diabetic individuals specifically. (2) Methods: We selected 243 variants as genetic instruments for T2DM liability and 536 variants for HbA1c. Linear Mendelian randomization analyses were performed to estimate the associations of genetically-predicted T2DM liability and HbA1c with 12 cardiovascular disease outcomes in 367,703 unrelated UK Biobank participants of European ancestries. We performed secondary analyses in participants without diabetes (HbA1c < 6.5% with no diagnosed diabetes), and in participants without diabetes or pre-diabetes (HbA1c < 5.7% with no diagnosed diabetes). (3) Results: Genetically-predicted T2DM liability was positively associated (p < 0.004, 0.05/12) with peripheral vascular disease, aortic valve stenosis, coronary artery disease, heart failure, ischaemic stroke, and any stroke. Genetically-predicted HbA1c was positively associated with coronary artery disease and any stroke. Mendelian randomization estimates generally shifted towards the null when excluding diabetic and pre-diabetic participants from analyses. (4) Conclusions: This genetic evidence supports causal effects of T2DM liability and HbA1c on a range of cardiovascular diseases, suggesting that improving glycaemic control could reduce cardiovascular risk in a general population, with greatest benefit in individuals with diabetes.

Background Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can stratify populations into cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk groups. We aimed to quantify the potential advantage of adding information on PRSs to conventional risk factors in the primary prevention of CVD. Methods and findings Using data from UK Biobank on 306,654 individuals without a history of CVD and not on lipid-lowering treatments (mean age [SD]: 56.0 [8.0] years; females: 57%; median follow-up: 8.1 years), we calculated measures of risk discrimination and reclassification upon addition of PRSs to risk factors in a conventional risk prediction model (i.e., age, sex, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, history of diabetes, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). We then modelled the implications of initiating guideline-recommended statin therapy in a primary care setting using incidence rates from 2.1 million individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, was 0.710 (95% CI 0.703–0.717) for a CVD prediction model containing conventional risk predictors alone. Addition of information on PRSs increased the C-index by 0.012 (95% CI 0.009–0.015), and resulted in continuous net reclassification improvements of about 10% and 12% in cases and non-cases, respectively. If a PRS were assessed in the entire UK primary care population aged 40–75 years, assuming that statin therapy would be initiated in accordance with the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines (i.e., for persons with a predicted risk of ≥10% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), then it could help prevent 1 additional CVD event for approximately every 5,750 individuals screened. By contrast, targeted assessment only among people at intermediate (i.e., 5% to, Luanluan Sun and colleagues investigate whether adding polygenic risk scores to conventional risk factors of cardiovascular disease helps predict disease risk., Author summary Why was this study done? Application of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) has opened opportunities to enhance risk stratification and prevention for common diseases. The clinical utility of PRSs in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction is, however, uncertain. Previous analyses have generally focused only on coronary heart disease (CHD) rather than the composite outcome of CHD and stroke, and have often lacked modelling of clinical implications of initiating guideline-recommended interventions (e.g., statin therapy). What did the researchers do and find? We quantified the incremental predictive gain with PRSs on top of conventional risk factors using data on 306,654 individuals from UK Biobank. We modelled the population health implications of initiating statin therapy as recommended by current guidelines using data from 2.1 million individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Addition of information on PRSs to a conventional risk prediction model increased the C-index (a measure of risk discrimination) and improved risk classification of cases and non-cases. We estimated that targeted assessment of PRSs among people at intermediate (i.e., 5% to

Stroke is the second leading cause of death worldwide and accounts for 2 million deaths annually in China

To study the correlation between fingerprints and body size indicators in adulthood.Samples were composed of twins from two sub-registries of Chinese National Twin Registry (CNTR), including 405 twin pairs in Lishui and 427 twin pairs in Qingdao. All participants were asked to complete the field survey, consisting of questionnaire, physical examination and blood collection. From the 832 twin pairs, those with complete and clear demographic prints were selected as the target population. Information of Fingerprints pixel on the demographic characteristics of these 100 twin pairs and their related adulthood body type indicators were finally chosen to form this research. Descriptive statistics and mixed linear model were used for data analyses.In the mixed linear models adjusted for age and sex, data showed that the body fat percentage of those who had arches was higher than those who did not have the arches (P = 0.002), and those who had radial loops would have higher body fat percentage when compared with ones who did not (P = 0.041). After adjusted for age, there appeared no statistically significant correlation between radial loops and systolic pressure, but the correlations of arches (P = 0.031)and radial loops (P = 0.022) to diastolic pressure still remained statistically significant.Statistically significant correlations were found between fingerprint types and body size indicators, and the fingerprint types showed a useful tool to explore the effects of uterine environment on health status in one's adulthood.