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Background Accurate prediction of coronary artery aneurysms ( CAAs ) in patients with Kawasaki disease remains challenging in North American cohorts. We sought to develop and validate a risk model for CAA prediction. Methods and Results A binary outcome of CAA was defined as left anterior descending or right coronary artery Z score ≥2.5 at 2 to 8 weeks after fever onset in a development cohort (n=903) and a validation cohort (n=185) of patients with Kawasaki disease. Associations of baseline clinical, laboratory, and echocardiographic variables with later CAA were assessed in the development cohort using logistic regression. Discrimination (c statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow) of the final model were evaluated. A practical risk score assigning points to each variable in the final model was created based on model coefficients from the development cohort. Predictors of CAAs at 2 to 8 weeks were baseline Z score of left anterior descending or right coronary artery ≥2.0, age 40-fold greater in the validation cohort (odds ratio, 44.0; 95% CI, 10.8-180 [ P

BackgroundCoronary artery aneurysms (CAA) are a serious complication of Kawasaki disease. Treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg) within 10 days of fever onset reduces the risk of CAA from 25% to

ImportanceAmerican Heart Association guidelines recommend echocardiography in Kawasaki disease at baseline, 1 to 2 weeks, and 4 to 6 weeks after treatment to detect coronary artery abnormalities. However, these examinations are expensive and may require sedation in young children, which is burdensome and carries some risk.ObjectiveTo assess the benefit of additional echocardiographic imaging at 6 weeks in patients with uncomplicated Kawasaki disease who had previously normal coronary arteries.Design, setting, and participantsThis is a retrospective review of patients with Kawasaki disease who were cared for between 1995 and 2014 in 2 academic pediatric referral practices Eligibility criteria included receiving intravenous immunoglobulin treatment for acute Kawasaki disease at a center; the absence of significant congenital heart disease; available echocardiographic measurements of both the right and left anterior descending coronary arteries at 10 days or less after diagnosis (baseline), 2 (±1) weeks, and 6 (±3) weeks of illness; and normal coronary arteries at baseline and 2 weeks, defined as maximum coronary artery z scores less than 2.0 and no distal aneurysms. Data analysis was completed from March 2015 to November 2015.Main outcomes and measuresThe number of patients with right coronary artery or left anterior descending coronary artery z scores of 2.0 or more at 6 weeks.ResultsThe median age of the 464 included patients was 3.3 years (interquartile range, 1.8-5.4 years); 264 (56.9%) were male, 351 of 414 for whom data were available (84.8%) had complete Kawasaki disease, and 66 (14.2%) received additional intravenous immunoglobulin treatment. At 6 weeks of illness, 456 patients (98.3%) who had had normal coronary artery z scores at baseline and 2 weeks continued to have normal z scores. Of the remaining 8 patients (1.7%), the maximum z score within 6 weeks was 2.0 to 2.4 in 5 patients (1.2%), 2.5 to 2.9 in 1 patient (0.2%), and 3.0 or more in 2 patients (0.4% [95% CI, 0.1%-1.5%]). Coronary artery dimensions ultimately normalized in all but 1 patient, who had minimal dilation at 6 weeks (right coronary artery z score, 2.1). Sensitivity analyses using less restrictive cut points (eg, a maximum z score

ObjectiveIt has been claimed that the aneurysm rate for Kawasaki disease (KD) patients in Japan is lower than in the U.S. However it has been difficult to compare coronary artery (CA) outcomes between the two countries because of different definitions for CA abnormalities. Therefore, we compared CA internal diameters between Japanese and U.S. KD patients using standard definitions and methods.Study designWe retrospectively reviewed CA outcomes in 1082 KD patients from 2 centers in the U.S. and 3 centers in Japan and compared Z-max scores (maximum internal diameter for the left anterior descending or right coronary artery expressed as standard deviation units from the mean (Z-score) normalized for body surface area) obtained within 12 weeks after onset and calculated using two different regression equations from Canada (Dallaire) and Japan (Fuse). We defined a Z-max of < 2.5 as normal and a Z-max of ≥ 10 as giant aneurysm.ResultThe median Z-max for the U.S. and Japanese subjects was 1.9 and 2.3 SD units, respectively (p < 0.001). There was no significant difference in rates of patients with Z-max ≥ 5.0 between the countries. In a multivariable model adjusting for age, sex, and treatment response, being Japanese was still associated with a higher Z-max score.ConclusionPreviously reported differences in aneurysm rates between Japan and the U.S. likely resulted from use of different definitions and nomenclature. Adoption of Z-scores as a standard for reporting CA internal diameters will allow meaningful comparisons among different countries and will facilitate international, collaborative clinical trials.

Aneurysms of the vascular wall represent a final common pathway for a number of inflammatory processes, including atherosclerosis and idiopathic vasculitis syndromes. Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute, self-limited vasculitis in children and the leading cause of acquired coronary artery aneurysms. We sought to identify shared molecular mechanisms of aneurysm formation by genotyping eight polymorphisms in matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-1, 3, 7, 12 and 13 in the gene cluster on Chr.11q22, whose gene products have been implicated in aneurysm formation or are known to have elastase activity. We genotyped 482 US-UK KD patients (aneurysm+: n=111, aneurysm-: n=371) and tested our findings in an independent cohort of 200 Japanese KD patients (aneurysm+: n=58, aneurysm-: n=142). Analysis of the five MMP genes identified modest trends in allele and genotype frequencies for MMP-3 rs3025058 (-/T) and haplotypes containing MMP-3 rs3025058 (-/T) and MMP-12 rs2276109 (A/G) (nominal P=2 to 4 × 10(-5)) that conferred increased risk of aneurysm formation in US-UK subjects. This finding was validated in Japanese subjects and suggests the importance of this locus in aneurysm formation in children with KD. The region encompassing these risk haplotypes is a prime candidate for resequencing to look for rare genetic variation that may influence aneurysm formation.