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1. Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author

Collaborators, GBD 2016 Neurology, Feigin, Valery L, Nichols, Emma, Alam, Tahiya, Bannick, Marlena S, Beghi, Ettore, Blake, Natacha, Culpepper, William J, Dorsey, E Ray, Elbaz, Alexis, Ellenbogen, Richard G, Fisher, James L, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Giussani, Giorgia, Glennie, Linda, James, Spencer L, Johnson, Catherine Owens, Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Marin, Benoît, Mountjoy-Venning, W Cliff, Nguyen, Minh, Ofori-Asenso, Richard, Patel, Anoop P, Piccininni, Marco, Roth, Gregory A, Steiner, Timothy J, Stovner, Lars Jacob, Szoeke, Cassandra EI, Theadom, Alice, Vollset, Stein Emil, Wallin, Mitchell Taylor, Wright, Claire, Zunt, Joseph Raymond, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Aboyans, Victor, Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Acharya, Dilaram, Adamu, Abdu A, Adebayo, Oladimeji M, Adeoye, Abiodun Moshood, Adsuar, Jose C, Afarideh, Mohsen, Agrawal, Sutapa, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akseer, Nadia, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Salman, Rustam Al-Shahi, Alahdab, Fares, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Altirkawi, Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Arabloo, Jalal, Aremu, Olatunde, Ärnlöv, Johan, Asayesh, Hamid, Asghar, Rana Jawad, Atalay, Hagos Tasew, Awasthi, Ashish, Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala, Ayuk, Tambe B, Badawi, Alaa, Banach, Maciej, Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar, Barboza, Miguel A, Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn, Bärnighausen, Till Winfried, Baune, Bernhard T, Bedi, Neeraj, Behzadifar, Masoud, Behzadifar, Meysam, Béjot, Yannick, Bekele, Bayu Begashaw, Belachew, Abate Bekele, Bennett, Derrick A, Bensenor, Isabela M, Berhane, Adugnaw, Beuran, Mircea, Bhattacharyya, Krittika, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Biadgo, Belete, Bijani, Ali, Bililign, Nigus, Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat, Blazes, Christopher Kynrint, Brayne, Carol, Butt, Zahid A, Campos-Nonato, Ismael R, and Cantu-Brito, Carlos

Subjects
Neurosciences, Headaches, Pain Research, Aging, Brain Disorders, Prevention, Neurodegenerative, Aetiology, 2.1 Biological and endogenous factors, Neurological, Good Health and Well Being, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cause of Death, Dementia, Disability Evaluation, Female, Global Burden of Disease, Humans, Incidence, Male, Middle Aged, Nervous System Diseases, Prevalence, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Socioeconomic Factors, GBD 2016 Neurology Collaborators, Clinical Sciences, Neurology & Neurosurgery
Abstract

BackgroundNeurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.MethodsWe estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.FindingsGlobally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247-308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8-9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34-44] and DALYs by 15% [9-21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26-30] and DALYs by 27% [24-31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6-46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7-20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0-12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6-10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05-1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5-90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8-35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8-17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).InterpretationGlobally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2019

2. Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Murray, Christopher JL, Callender, Charlton SKH, Kulikoff, Xie Rachel, Srinivasan, Vinay, Abate, Degu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abay, Solomon M, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abdela, Jemal, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdel-Rahman, Omar, Abdi, Alireza, Abdoli, Nasrin, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abebe, Haftom Temesgen, Abebe, Molla, Abebe, Zegeye, Abebo, Teshome Abuka, Abejie, Ayenew Negesse, Aboyans, Victor, Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Abreu, Daisy Maria Xavier, Abrham, Aklilu Roba, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME, Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou, Acharya, Pawan, Adamu, Abdu A, Adebayo, Oladimeji M, Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi, Adekanmbi, Victor, Adetokunboh, Olatunji O, Adhena, Beyene Meressa, Adhikari, Tara Ballav, Adib, Mina G, Adou, Arsène Kouablan, Adsuar, Jose C, Afarideh, Mohsen, Afshin, Ashkan, Agarwal, Gina, Agesa, Kareha M, Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi, Agrawal, Sutapa, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadi, Mehdi, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Ahmed, Sayem, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Akanda, Ali S, Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil, Akibu, Mohammed, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akinyemiju, Tomi, Akseer, Nadia, Alahdab, Fares, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alebel, Animut, Aleman, Alicia V, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Ali, Raghib, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Almasi, Ali, Alonso, Jordi, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M, Alsharif, Ubai, Altirkawi, Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Ammar, Walid, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Animut, Megbaru Debalkie, Ansari, Hossein, Ansha, Mustafa Geleto, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw, Aremu, Olatunde, Areri, Habtamu Abera, Arian, Nicholas, Ärnlöv, Johan, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna K, Asayesh, Hamid, Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay, Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal, Assadi, Reza, Atey, Tesfay Mehari Mehari, and Atique, Suleman

Subjects
Health Sciences, Behavioral and Social Science, Contraception/Reproduction, Basic Behavioral and Social Science, Aging, Aetiology, 2.4 Surveillance and distribution, Reproductive health and childbirth, Good Health and Well Being, Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Birth Rate, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Global Burden of Disease, Global Health, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Maternal Age, Middle Aged, Mortality, Population Density, Population Growth, Young Adult, GBD 2017 Population and Fertility Collaborators, Medical and Health Sciences, General & Internal Medicine, Biomedical and clinical sciences, Health sciences
Abstract

BackgroundPopulation estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.MethodsWe estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.FindingsFrom 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.InterpretationPopulation trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2018

3. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Collaborators, GBD 2017 Causes of Death, Roth, Gregory A, Abate, Degu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abay, Solomon M, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdela, Jemal, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abebe, Haftom Temesgen, Abebe, Molla, Abebe, Zegeye, Abejie, Ayenew Negesse, Abera, Semaw F, Abil, Olifan Zewdie, Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Abrham, Aklilu Roba, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou, Acharya, Dilaram, Adamu, Abdu A, Adebayo, Oladimeji M, Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji, Adekanmbi, Victor, Adetokunboh, Olatunji O, Adhena, Beyene Meressa, Adib, Mina G, Admasie, Amha, Afshin, Ashkan, Agarwal, Gina, Agesa, Kareha M, Agrawal, Anurag, Agrawal, Sutapa, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadi, Mehdi, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Ahmed, Sayem, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akseer, Nadia, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M, Alahdab, Fares, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Tahiya, Alebel, Animut, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Alonso, Jordi, Altirkawi, Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Aminde, Leopold N, Amini, Erfan, Ammar, Walid, Amoako, Yaw Ampem, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Animut, Megbaru Debalkie, Anjomshoa, Mina, Ansari, Hossein, Ansha, Mustafa Geleto, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Aremu, Olatunde, Ärnlöv, Johan, Arora, Amit, Arora, Monika, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna K, Asayesh, Hamid, Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay, Ataro, Zerihun, Atique, Suleman, Atre, Sachin R, Ausloos, Marcel, Avokpaho, Euripide FGA, Awasthi, Ashish, Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala, Ayele, Yohanes, Ayer, Rakesh, Azzopardi, Peter S, Babazadeh, Arefeh, Bacha, Umar, Badali, Hamid, and Badawi, Alaa

Subjects
Brain Disorders, Pediatric, Prevention, Aetiology, 2.4 Surveillance and distribution, Infection, Good Health and Well Being, Adolescent, Adult, Age Distribution, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cause of Death, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Global Burden of Disease, Global Health, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Life Expectancy, Male, Middle Aged, Sex Distribution, Socioeconomic Factors, Young Adult, GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators, Medical and Health Sciences, General & Internal Medicine
Abstract

BackgroundGlobal development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.MethodsThe causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.FindingsAt the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.InterpretationImprovements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2018

4. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

James, Spencer L, Abate, Degu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abay, Solomon M, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdela, Jemal, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abebe, Zegeye, Abera, Semaw F, Abil, Olifan Zewdie, Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME, Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou, Acharya, Dilaram, Acharya, Pawan, Ackerman, Ilana N, Adamu, Abdu A, Adebayo, Oladimeji M, Adekanmbi, Victor, Adetokunboh, Olatunji O, Adib, Mina G, Adsuar, Jose C, Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko, Afarideh, Mohsen, Afshin, Ashkan, Agarwal, Gina, Agesa, Kareha M, Aggarwal, Rakesh, Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi, Agrawal, Sutapa, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadi, Mehdi, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Akinyemiju, Tomi, Akseer, Nadia, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M, Alahdab, Fares, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Tahiya, Alashi, Alaa, Alavian, Seyed Moayed, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Alouani, Mohamed ML, Altirkawi, Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Aminde, Leopold N, Ammar, Walid, Amoako, Yaw Ampem, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Animut, Megbaru Debalkie, Anjomshoa, Mina, Ansha, Mustafa Geleto, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Arabloo, Jalal, Arauz, Antonio, Aremu, Olatunde, Ariani, Filippo, Armoon, Bahroom, Ärnlöv, Johan, Arora, Amit, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna K, Asayesh, Hamid, Asghar, Rana Jawad, Ataro, Zerihun, Atre, Sachin R, Ausloos, Marcel, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Avokpaho, Euripide FGA, Awasthi, Ashish, Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina, Ayer, Rakesh, Azzopardi, Peter S, Babazadeh, Arefeh, Badali, Hamid, Badawi, Alaa, and Bali, Ayele Geleto

Subjects
Prevention, 2.4 Surveillance and distribution, Aetiology, Good Health and Well Being, Adolescent, Adult, Age Distribution, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Disabled Persons, Female, Global Burden of Disease, Global Health, Humans, Incidence, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Life Expectancy, Male, Middle Aged, Morbidity, Prevalence, Sex Distribution, Socioeconomic Factors, Wounds and Injuries, Young Adult, GBD 2017 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators, Medical and Health Sciences, General & Internal Medicine
Abstract

BackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.MethodsWe estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.FindingsGlobally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).InterpretationGlobal all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2018

5. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Collaborators, GBD 2017 Risk Factor, Stanaway, Jeffrey D, Afshin, Ashkan, Gakidou, Emmanuela, Lim, Stephen S, Abate, Degu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdela, Jemal, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abebe, Molla, Abebe, Zegeye, Abera, Semaw F, Abil, Olifan Zewdie, Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Abrham, Aklilu Roba, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME, Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou, Acharya, Dilaram, Acharya, Pawan, Adamu, Abdu A, Adane, Akilew Awoke, Adebayo, Oladimeji M, Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji, Adekanmbi, Victor, Ademi, Zanfina, Adetokunboh, Olatunji O, Adib, Mina G, Admasie, Amha, Adsuar, Jose C, Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko, Afarideh, Mohsen, Agarwal, Gina, Aggarwal, Anju, Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi, Agrawal, Anurag, Agrawal, Sutapa, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadi, Mehdi, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil, Akinyemiju, Tomi, Akseer, Nadia, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M, Alahdab, Fares, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Samiah, Alam, Tahiya, Alashi, Alaa, Alavian, Seyed Moayed, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Ali, Komal, Ali, Syed Mustafa, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Alsharif, Ubai, Altirkawi, Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Ammar, Walid, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Anderson, Jason A, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Animut, Megbaru Debalkie, Anjomshoa, Mina, Ansha, Mustafa Geleto, Antó, Josep M, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Appiah, Lambert Tetteh, Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw, Arabloo, Jalal, Aremu, Olatunde, Ärnlöv, Johan, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna K, Asayesh, Hamid, Ataro, Zerihun, Ausloos, Marcel, Avokpaho, Euripide FGA, Awasthi, Ashish, Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala, Ayer, Rakesh, and Ayuk, Tambe B

Subjects
Prevention, Aetiology, 2.2 Factors relating to the physical environment, Good Health and Well Being, Adolescent, Adult, Age Distribution, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Disabled Persons, Environmental Exposure, Female, Global Burden of Disease, Global Health, Health Risk Behaviors, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Life Expectancy, Male, Metabolic Diseases, Middle Aged, Occupational Diseases, Occupational Exposure, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Risk Assessment, Sex Distribution, Socioeconomic Factors, Young Adult, GBD 2017 Risk Factor Collaborators, Medical and Health Sciences, General & Internal Medicine
Abstract

BackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations.MethodsWe used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.FindingsIn 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.InterpretationBy quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2018

6. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Collaborators, GBD 2017 Mortality, Dicker, Daniel, Nguyen, Grant, Abate, Degu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abay, Solomon M, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdela, Jemal, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdel-Rahman, Omar, Abdi, Alireza, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abdurahman, Ahmed Abdulahi, Abebe, Haftom Temesgen, Abebe, Molla, Abebe, Zegeye, Abebo, Teshome Abuka, Aboyans, Victor, Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Abrham, Aklilu Roba, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME, Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou, Acharya, Pawan, Adebayo, Oladimeji M, Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi, Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji, Adekanmbi, Victor, Adetokunboh, Olatunji O, Adhena, Beyene Meressa, Adhikari, Tara Ballav, Adib, Mina G, Adou, Arsène Kouablan, Adsuar, Jose C, Afarideh, Mohsen, Afshin, Ashkan, Agarwal, Gina, Aggarwal, Rakesh, Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi, Agrawal, Sutapa, Agrawal, Anurag, Ahmadi, Mehdi, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmed, Mohamed Lemine Cheikh brahim, Ahmed, Sayem, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Akanda, Ali S, Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil, Akibu, Mohammed, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akinyemiju, Tomi, Akseer, Nadia, Alahdab, Fares, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alebel, Animut, Aleman, Alicia V, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Ali, Raghib, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Christine A, Alonso, Jordi, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M, Alsharif, Ubai, Altirkawi, Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amini, Erfan, Ammar, Walid, Amoako, Yaw Ampem, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Animut, Megbaru Debalkie, Anjomshoa, Mina, Anlay, Degefaye Zelalem, Ansari, Hossein, Ansariadi, Ansariadi, Ansha, Mustafa Geleto, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw, Aremu, Olatunde, Areri, Habtamu Abera, Ärnlöv, Johan, Arora, Megha, and Artaman, Al

Subjects
Behavioral and Social Science, Pediatric, Prevention, Basic Behavioral and Social Science, 2.4 Surveillance and distribution, Aetiology, Good Health and Well Being, Adolescent, Adult, Age Distribution, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Global Burden of Disease, Global Health, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Life Expectancy, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Sex Distribution, Socioeconomic Factors, Young Adult, GBD 2017 Mortality Collaborators, Medical and Health Sciences, General & Internal Medicine
Abstract

BackgroundAssessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.MethodsThe GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.FindingsGlobally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.InterpretationThis analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2018

7. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe, Abate, Degu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abay, Solomon M, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdela, Jemal, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abebe, Molla, Abebe, Zegeye, Abil, Olifan Zewdie, Aboyans, Victor, Abrham, Aklilu Roba, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME, Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou, Acharya, Dilaram, Acharya, Pawan, Ackerman, Ilana N, Adamu, Abdu A, Adebayo, Oladimeji M, Adekanmbi, Victor, Ademi, Zanfina, Adetokunboh, Olatunji O, Adib, Mina G, Adsuar, Jose C, Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko, Afarideh, Mohsen, Afshin, Ashkan, Agarwal, Gina, Agesa, Kareha M, Aggarwal, Rakesh, Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi, Agrawal, Anurag, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadi, Mehdi, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Ahmed, Sayem, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Akinyemiju, Tomi, Akseer, Nadia, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M, Alahdab, Fares, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Tahiya, Alashi, Alaa, Alavian, Seyed Moayed, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Alonso, Jordi, Alsharif, Ubai, Altirkawi, Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Aminde, Leopold N, Amini, Erfan, Amiresmaili, Mohammadreza, Ammar, Walid, Amoako, Yaw Ampem, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Animut, Megbaru Debalkie, Anjomshoa, Mina, Ansha, Mustafa Geleto, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Arabloo, Jalal, Aremu, Olatunde, Ärnlöv, Johan, Arora, Amit, Arora, Megha, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna K, Asayesh, Hamid, Ataro, Zerihun, Ausloos, Marcel, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Avokpaho, Euripide FGA, Awasthi, Ashish, Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina, Ayer, Rakesh, Azzopardi, Peter S, Babazadeh, Arefeh, Badali, Hamid, and Balakrishnan, Kalpana

Subjects
Prevention, Aging, Good Health and Well Being, Aged, Communicable Diseases, Disabled Persons, Female, Global Burden of Disease, Health Status, Healthy Lifestyle, Humans, Life Expectancy, Male, Mortality, Mortality, Premature, Prevalence, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Risk Factors, Socioeconomic Factors, Wounds and Injuries, GBD 2017 DALYs and HALE Collaborators, Medical and Health Sciences, General & Internal Medicine
Abstract

BackgroundHow long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years.MethodsWe used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males.FindingsGlobally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the five leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2).InterpretationWith increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2018

8. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author

Collaborators, GBD 2016 Risk Factors, Gakidou, Emmanuela, Afshin, Ashkan, Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbas, Kaja M, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdulle, Abdishakur M, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Aboyans, Victor, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME, Abyu, Gebre Yitayih, Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi, Adetokunboh, Olatunji, Afarideh, Mohsen, Agrawal, Anurag, Agrawal, Sutapa, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akseer, Nadia, Alahdab, Fares, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Noore, Alam, Tahiya, Alasfoor, Deena, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Ali, Komal, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa, Alsharif, Ubai, Altirkawi, Khalid A, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amini, Erfan, Ammar, Walid, Amoako, Yaw Ampem, Ansari, Hossein, Antó, Josep M, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Arian, Nicholas, Ärnlöv, Johan, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna Kumar, Asayesh, Hamid, Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal, Atey, Tesfay Mehari, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur, Awasthi, Ashish, Azzopardi, Peter, Bacha, Umar, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Ballew, Shoshana H, Barac, Aleksandra, Barber, Ryan M, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Bärnighausen, Till, Barquera, Simon, Barregard, Lars, Barrero, Lope H, Batis, Carolina, Battle, Katherine E, Baumgarner, Blair R, Baune, Bernhard T, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Bell, Michelle L, Bennett, Derrick A, Bennett, James R, Bensenor, Isabela M, Berhane, Adugnaw, Berhe, Derbew Fikadu, Bernabé, Eduardo, Betsu, Balem Demtsu, Beuran, Mircea, Beyene, Addisu Shunu, Bhansali, Anil, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Bicer, Burcu Kucuk, Bikbov, Boris, Birungi, Charles, Biryukov, Stan, Blosser, Christopher D, Boneya, Dube Jara, Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R, Brauer, Michael, and Breitborde, Nicholas JK

Subjects
Epidemiology, Health Sciences, Prevention, Aetiology, 2.2 Factors relating to the physical environment, Good Health and Well Being, Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Air Pollution, Body Mass Index, Cause of Death, Child, Child, Preschool, Communicable Diseases, Disabled Persons, Environmental Health, Female, Global Burden of Disease, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Life Expectancy, Male, Metabolic Diseases, Middle Aged, Noncommunicable Diseases, Occupational Diseases, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Risk Assessment, Sex Distribution, Smoking, Water Supply, Young Adult, GBD 2016 Risk Factors Collaborators, Medical and Health Sciences, General & Internal Medicine, Biomedical and clinical sciences, Health sciences
Abstract

BackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.MethodsWe used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined.FindingsSince 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124·1 million DALYs [95% UI 111·2 million to 137·0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122·2 million DALYs [110·3 million to 133·3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83·0 million DALYs [78·3 million to 87·7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89·9 million DALYs [80·9 million to 98·2 million]), high body-mass index (64·8 million DALYs [44·4 million to 87·6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63·8 million DALYs [53·2 million to 76·3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9·3% (6·9-11·6) decline in deaths and a 10·8% (8·3-13·1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14·9% (12·7-17·5) of deaths and 6·2% (3·9-8·7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of deaths and 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27·3% (24·9-29·7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks.InterpretationIncreasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade.FundingThe Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Published
2017

9. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author

Collaborators, GBD 2016 DALYs and HALE, Hay, Simon I, Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbas, Kaja M, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abdulle, Abdishakur M, Abebo, Teshome Abuka, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Aboyans, Victor, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Ackerman, Ilana N, Adedeji, Isaac A, Adetokunboh, Olatunji, Afshin, Ashkan, Aggarwal, Rakesh, Agrawal, Sutapa, Agrawal, Anurag, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aiyar, Sneha, Akinyemiju, Tomi F, Akseer, Nadia, Al Lami, Faris Hasan, Alahdab, Fares, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Noore, Alam, Tahiya, Alasfoor, Deena, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Ali, Raghib, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Alkaabi, Juma M, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Christine, Al-Maskari, Fatma, AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa, Alsharif, Ubai, Alsowaidi, Shirina, Althouse, Benjamin M, Altirkawi, Khalid A, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amini, Erfan, Ammar, Walid, Amoako, Yaw Ampem, Ansha, Mustafa Geleto, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Ärnlöv, Johan, Arora, Megha, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna Kumar, Asgedom, Solomon W, Atey, Tesfay Mehari, Atnafu, Niguse Tadele, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur, Awasthi, Ashish, Awasthi, Shally, Azarpazhooh, Mahmoud Reza, Azzopardi, Peter, Babalola, Tesleem Kayode, Bacha, Umar, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Bannick, Marlena S, Barac, Aleksandra, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Bärnighausen, Till, Barquera, Simon, Barrero, Lope H, Basu, Sanjay, Battista, Robert, Battle, Katherine E, Baune, Bernhard T, Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Béjot, Yannick, Bekele, Bayu Begashaw, Bell, Michelle L, Bennett, Derrick A, Bennett, James R, Bensenor, Isabela M, Benson, Jennifer, Berhane, Adugnaw, Berhe, Derbew Fikadu, Bernabé, Eduardo, Betsu, Balem Demtsu, Beuran, Mircea, and Beyene, Addisu Shunu

Subjects
Epidemiology, Public Health, Health Sciences, Clinical Research, Behavioral and Social Science, Burden of Illness, Prevention, Social Determinants of Health, 2.4 Surveillance and distribution, Good Health and Well Being, Adult, Age Distribution, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cause of Death, Communicable Diseases, Disabled Persons, Female, Global Burden of Disease, Global Health, Humans, Life Expectancy, Male, Middle Aged, Noncommunicable Diseases, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Residence Characteristics, Sex Distribution, Wounds and Injuries, GBD 2016 DALYs and HALE Collaborators, Medical and Health Sciences, General & Internal Medicine, Biomedical and clinical sciences, Health sciences
Abstract

BackgroundMeasurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).MethodsWe used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate.FindingsThe highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally.InterpretationAt a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2017

10. Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author

Collaborators, GBD 2016 Causes of Death, Naghavi, Mohsen, Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbas, Kaja M, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Aboyans, Victor, Adetokunboh, Olatunji, Afshin, Ashkan, Agrawal, Anurag, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aiyar, Sneha, Alahdab, Fares, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Noore, Alam, Tahiya, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Ali, Syed Danish, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Alkaabi, Juma M, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Christine, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa, Alsharif, Ubai, Altirkawi, Khalid A, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amini, Erfan, Ammar, Walid, Amoako, Yaw Ampem, Anber, Nahla, Andersen, Hjalte H, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Ansari, Hossein, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Ärnlöv, Johan, Arora, Megha, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna Kumar, Asayesh, Hamid, Asgedom, Solomon W, Atey, Tesfay Mehari, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G, Awasthi, Ashish, Babalola, Tesleem Kayode, Bacha, Umar, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Barac, Aleksandra, Barboza, Miguel A, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Barquera, Simon, Barregard, Lars, Barrero, Lope H, Baune, Bernhard T, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Béjot, Yannick, Bekele, Bayu Begashaw, Bell, Michelle L, Bennett, James R, Bensenor, Isabela M, Berhane, Adugnaw, Bernabé, Eduardo, Betsu, Balem Demtsu, Beuran, Mircea, Bhatt, Samir, Biadgilign, Sibhatu, Bienhoff, Kelly, Bikbov, Boris, Bisanzio, Donal, Bourne, Rupert RA, Breitborde, Nicholas JK, Bulto, Lemma Negesa Bulto, Bumgarner, Blair R, Butt, Zahid A, Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero, Cameron, Ewan, Campuzano, Julio Cesar, Car, Josip, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carrero, Juan Jesus, Carter, Austin, Casey, Daniel C, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Charlson, Fiona J, Chibueze, Chioma Ezinne, and Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel

Subjects
Pediatric, Clinical Research, Infant Mortality, Infectious Diseases, 2.4 Surveillance and distribution, Aetiology, Infection, Cardiovascular, Good Health and Well Being, Adolescent, Adult, Age Distribution, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cause of Death, Child, Child, Preschool, Communicable Diseases, Disasters, Female, Global Burden of Disease, Global Health, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Noncommunicable Diseases, Nutrition Disorders, Pregnancy, Pregnancy Complications, Socioeconomic Factors, Wounds and Injuries, Young Adult, GBD 2016 Causes of Death Collaborators, Medical and Health Sciences, General & Internal Medicine
Abstract

BackgroundMonitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends.MethodsWe estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016.FindingsThe quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2-73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5-20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00-8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe.InterpretationThe past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2017

11. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author

Collaborators, GBD 2016 SDG, Fullman, Nancy, Barber, Ryan M, Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbas, Kaja M, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abdulle, Abdishakur M, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Aboyans, Victor, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME, Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi, Adetokunboh, Olatunji, Afshin, Ashkan, Agrawal, Anurag, Agrawal, Sutapa, Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aiyar, Sneha, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akseer, Nadia, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Noore, Alasfoor, Deena, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Christine, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa, Alsharif, Ubai, Altirkawi, Khalid A, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amini, Erfan, Ammar, Walid, Ansari, Hossein, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Arora, Megha, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna Kumar, Asayesh, Hamid, Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal, Assadi, Reza, Atey, Tesfay Mehari, Atre, Sachin R, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur, Awasthi, Ashish, Azzopardi, Peter, Bacha, Umar, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Bannick, Marlena S, Barac, Aleksandra, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Bärnighausen, Till, Barrero, Lope H, Basu, Sanjay, Battle, Katherine E, Baune, Bernhard T, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Béjot, Yannick, Bell, Michelle L, Bennett, Derrick A, Bennett, James R, Bensenor, Isabela M, Berhane, Adugnaw, Berhe, Derbew Fikadu, Bernabé, Eduardo, Betsu, Balem Demtsu, Beuran, Mircea, Beyene, Addisu Shunu, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhansali, Anil, Bhatt, Samir, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Bicer, Burcu Kucuk, Bidgoli, Hassan Haghparast, Bikbov, Boris, Bilal, Arebu I, Birungi, Charles, Biryukov, Stan, Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie, Blosser, Christopher D, Boneya, Dube Jara, Bose, Dipan, and Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R

Subjects
Infectious Diseases, Pediatric, Prevention, Rare Diseases, Good Health and Well Being, Adolescent, Adult, Child, Child Abuse, Sexual, Child, Preschool, Conservation of Natural Resources, Female, Global Burden of Disease, Global Health, Health Status, Health Status Indicators, Humans, Infant, Infant Mortality, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Noncommunicable Diseases, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Sex Offenses, Young Adult, GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators, Medical and Health Sciences, General & Internal Medicine
Abstract

BackgroundThe UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030.MethodsWe used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment.FindingsGlobally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9-66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6-88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1-87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8-87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6-11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8-13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5-13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past.InterpretationGBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2017

12. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author

Collaborators, GBD 2016 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence, Vos, Theo, Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbas, Kaja M, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abdulle, Abdishakur M, Abebo, Teshome Abuka, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Aboyans, Victor, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Ackerman, Ilana N, Adamu, Abdu Abdullahi, Adetokunboh, Olatunji, Afarideh, Mohsen, Afshin, Ashkan, Agarwal, Sanjay Kumar, Aggarwal, Rakesh, Agrawal, Anurag, Agrawal, Sutapa, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aiyar, Sneha, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akseer, Nadia, Al Lami, Faris Hasan, Alahdab, Fares, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Noore, Alam, Tahiya, Alasfoor, Deena, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Ali, Raghib, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Christine, Al-Maskari, Fatma, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa, Alsharif, Ubai, Alsowaidi, Shirina, Altirkawi, Khalid A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amini, Erfan, Ammar, Walid, Amoako, Yaw Ampem, Andersen, Hjalte H, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Ärnlöv, Johan, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna Kumar, Asayesh, Hamid, Asgedom, Solomon W, Assadi, Reza, Atey, Tesfay Mehari, Atnafu, Niguse Tadele, Atre, Sachin R, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Avokphako, Euripide Frinel G Arthur, Awasthi, Ashish, Bacha, Umar, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Banerjee, Amitava, Bannick, Marlena S, Barac, Aleksandra, Barber, Ryan M, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Bärnighausen, Till, Barquera, Simon, Barregard, Lars, Barrero, Lope H, Basu, Sanjay, Battista, Bob, Battle, Katherine E, Baune, Bernhard T, Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Béjot, Yannick, Bekele, Bayu Begashaw, Bell, Michelle L, Bennett, Derrick A, Bensenor, Isabela M, Benson, Jennifer, Berhane, Adugnaw, Berhe, Derbew Fikadu, Bernabé, Eduardo, Betsu, Balem Demtsu, Beuran, Mircea, and Beyene, Addisu Shunu

Subjects
Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Epidemiology, Public Health, Clinical Sciences, Health Sciences, Neurosciences, Behavioral and Social Science, Burden of Illness, Aging, Brain Disorders, Mental Health, Women's Health, 2.4 Surveillance and distribution, Good Health and Well Being, Adolescent, Adult, Age Distribution, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cause of Death, Child, Child, Preschool, Communicable Diseases, Disabled Persons, Female, Global Burden of Disease, Global Health, Humans, Incidence, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Noncommunicable Diseases, Prevalence, Sex Distribution, Wounds and Injuries, Young Adult, GBD 2016 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators, Medical and Health Sciences, General & Internal Medicine, Biomedical and clinical sciences, Health sciences
Abstract

BackgroundAs mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016.MethodsWe estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FindingsGlobally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228).InterpretationThe decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-to-date information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.

Published
2017

13. Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality

Author

Zohreh Arefi, Rasmus Havmoeller, Pietro Ferrara, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Payman Salamati, Agegnehu Bante Getenet, Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi, Alexander C. Tsai, Andrew T Olagunju, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Tim Driscoll, Reza Rawassizadeh, Vishnu Renjith, Taras Kavetskyy, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel, Richard C. Franklin, Naznin Hossain, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei, Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi, Morteza Naserbakht, Sangram Kishor Patel, Vera Marisa Costa, Suzanne Polinder, Ziad El-Khatib, Ashish Pathak, Mika Shigematsu, Bryan L. Sykes, David M. Pigott, Zeleke Aschalew Melketsedik, Hadi Hassankhani, Nuworza Kugbey, Lal B. Rawal, Masoud Foroutan, Dejana Braithwaite, Muluken Bekele Sorrie, Grant M. A. Wyper, Joht Singh Chandan, Akbar Barzegar, Hamid Safarpour, Kate E. LeGrand, Giulio Castelpietra, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Amin Soheili, Azeem Majeed, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Nikolay Ivanovich Briko, Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Walter Mendoza, Ghulam Mustafa, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Pengpeng Ye, Mahesh P A, Carlos Miguel Rios González, Ahmad Daryani, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Masoud Moradi, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Mohammad Rabiee, Jaya Prasad Tripathy, Jack T Fox, Diep Ngoc Nguyen, Pallab K. Maulik, Ai-Min Wu, Félix Carvalho, Yun Jin Kim, Fatemeh Rajati, Nathaniel J Henry, David C. Schwebel, Ali H. Mokdad, Akine Eshete Abosetugn, Leonardo Roever, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Khalid A Altirkawi, Hayimro Edemealem Merie, Farhad Ghamari, Ramesh Holla, Arash Sarveazad, Devasahayam J. Christopher, Kedir Hussein Abegaz, Suresh Jungari, Rohan Borschmann, Irfan Ullah, Nitin Joseph, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Abdallah M. Samy, Roman Topor-Madry, Michal Grivna, Ivo Rakovac, Mohammad Zamani, Antonio Maria Borzì, Atif Amin Baig, Mohsen Bayati, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Juanita A. Haagsma, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Mehdi Sayyah, Teshome Abegaz Kamil, Fakher Rahim, Dillon O Sylte, Feng Sha, Palash Chandra Banik, Mohan Bairwa, Mariya Vladimirovna Titova, Yong Yu, Delia Hendrie, Spencer L. James, Anusha Ganapati Bhat, Seok Jun Yoon, Siavash Rahimi, Jost B. Jonas, Michael R. Phillips, Diana Silva, Amir Hossein Goudarzian, Samath D Dharmaratne, Roba Khundkar, Jemal Abdu Mohammed, Joemer C. Maravilla, Eleonora Dubljanin, Arun Balachandran, Arman Latifi, Randah R. Hamadeh, G. K. Mini, Alessandra C. Goulart, Andreea Mirica, Fatemeh Zarei, Habte Belete, Telma Zahirian Moghadam, Maseer Khan, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Atte Meretoja, Jasvinder A. Singh, Guilherme Borges, Yasir Waheed, Fahad Alanezi, Masoud Moghadaszadeh, Guoqing Hu, Archith Boloor, Luca Ronfani, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Vahid Rashedi, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Yonatal Mesfin Tefera, Yousef Khader, Adnan Kisa, Simon I. Hay, Takeshi Fukumoto, Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi, Yuichiro Yano, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Suzanne Barker-Collo, Ghasem Azarian, Sezer Kisa, Basema Saddik, Leake Gebremeskel, Yetunde O. John-Akinola, Jennifer Rickard, Ilais Moreno Velásquez, Priya Rathi, Ali Bijani, Smita Pakhale, Francesco Saverio Violante, Neeraj Bedi, Efat Mohamadi, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Marek Majdan, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Richard Ofori-Asenso, Prateek Rastogi, Xuefeng Liu, Monika Sawhney, Ayman Grada, Prasanna Mithra, Shanshan Li, Masood Ali Shaikh, Erin B Hamilton, Hung Chak Ho, Zichen Liu, Irini Chatziralli, Paulo A. Lotufo, Yuming Guo, Daniel N. Kiirithio, Hamidreza Komaki, Aristidis Tsatsakis, Brijesh Sathian, Daniel Kim, Yoosik Youm, Kebreab Paulos, Saqib Ali, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, M. Mofizul Islam, Ahad Bakhtiari, Karen M. Tabb, Davood Anvari, Tomislav Mestrovic, Yunquan Zhang, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Naohiro Yonemoto, Rupak Desai, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Rajan Nikbakhsh, Zahra Sadat Dibaji Forooshani, Carlo La Vecchia, Amrit Banstola, Niguse Meles Alema, Shivakumar K.M. Kondlahalli, Soraya Seedat, Filippo Ariani, Chi Linh Hoang, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Erika Ota, Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi, Van C. Lansingh, Mohammed Madadin, Mostafa Dianati Nasab, Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam, Amanda J. Mason-Jones, Marcela Agudelo-Botero, Dinh-Toi Chu, Bach Xuan Tran, Till Bärnighausen, Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh, Mohammad Ali Jahani, Bereket Duko Adema, In-Hwan Oh, Paul S. F. Yip, Ionut Negoi, Eduarda Fernandes, Reza Ghanei Gheshlagh, Kelly Jones, Mahdi Safdarian, Josep Maria Haro, Zahiruddin Quazi Syed, Diego De Leo, Khanh Bao Tran, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Yasser S. Amer, Tommi Vasankari, Vasily Vlassov, Jose C. Adsuar, Zoubida Zaidi, Asadollah Gholamian, Theo Vos, Nauman Khalid, Malke Asaad, André Faro, Rushdia Ahmed, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Ireneous N. Soyiri, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Hoa Thi Do, Temesgen Gebeyehu Wondmeneh, Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov, Manasi Kumar, Josip Car, Shoaib Hassan, Mukhammad David Naimzada, Gurudatta Naik, Ali Rajabpour-Sanati, Mustafa Z. Younis, Farid Najafi, Ester Cerin, Lorenzo Monasta, Amit Arora, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Javad Nazari, Joel M. Francis, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Farahnaz Joukar, Babak Moazen, Kebede Deribe, Nithin Kumar, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Getinet Ayano, Serge Resnikoff, Mark A. Stokes, Alaa Badawi, Narinder Kumar, Habibolah Khazaie, Sojib Bin Zaman, Faris Lami, Jens R. Chapman, Onome Bright Oghenetega, Dhirendra N Sinha, Engida Yisma, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Demelash Abewa Elemineh, Junaid Khan, Shane D. Morrison, Mansour Ghafourifard, Ata Rafiee, Hadush Gebremariam, Oghenowede Eyawo, Amir Hasanzadeh, Ana Laura Manda, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Morteza Arab-Zozani, Narayana Manjunatha, Navid Manafi, Ritesh G. Menezes, Ferrán Catalá-López, Hossein Poustchi, Ghobad Moradi, Suliman Alghnam, Tinuke O Olagunju, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Sorin Hostiuc, Jalal Arabloo, Shaun Wen Huey Lee, Chris D Castle, Joan B. Soriano, Syed Amir Gilani, Mariam Molokhia, Gaurav Gupta, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir, Isabela M. Benseñor, Desalegn Getnet Demsie, Atalay Goshu Muluneh, Young Eun Kim, Olatunde Aremu, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Jae Il Shin, Berhe Etsay Tesfay, Neha Chaudhary, Juan Sanabria, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Sanni Yaya, Rekha Thapar, Biruk Wogayehu Taddele, Maciej Banach, Salman Rawaf, Nicholas L S Roberts, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Manoochehr Karami, Derrick A Bennett, Duduzile Ndwandwe, Soheil Hassanipour, Ashish Badiye, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Obinna Onwujekwe, Kewal Krishan, João Coelho, Ahmed Abdelalim, Kerrie E. Doyle, Tomasz Miazgowski, Rahman Shiri, Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso, Navid Rabiee, Nikita Otstavnov, Brian J. Hall, Olalekan A. Uthman, Rohollah Kalhor, Swayam Prakash, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Ted R. Miller, Rebecca Ivers, Chuanhua Yu, Pascual R. Valdez, Martha Híjar, Taweewat Wiangkham, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Melkamu Merid Mengesha, Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi, Ravi Prakash Jha, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Aidin Abedi, Savita Lasrado, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Amir Almasi-Hashiani, Burcu Kucuk Bicer, Hagazi Gebremedhin Kassaye, Yousef Veisani, Ayenew Kassie Tesema, Amir Radfar, Pawan Faris, Oladimeji Adebayo, Fares Alahdab, Heather Orpana, Narayan Bahadur Mahotra, Tripti Khanna, Girikumar Kumaresh, Alireza Rafiei, João Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Cyrus Alinia, Era Upadhyay, Stanislav S. Otstavnov, Ahmed Omar Bali, Farshad Farzadfar, Vivek Kumar, Sanghamitra Pati, Gholamreza Roshandel, Daiane Borges Machado, Yuan-Pang Wang, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Aziz Sheikh, Jeevan Pereira, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Soraya Siabani, Kamarul Imran Musa, Farshad Pourmalek, Janet L Leasher, Shafiu Mohammed, Shyam Sundar Budhathoki, Mehdi Naderi, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Eun-Kee Park, Marwa Rashad Salem, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Paolo Lauriola, Amir Kasaeian, Adam Belay Wondmieneh, Tilahun Belete Mossie, Rovshan Khalilov, Milena M Santric Milicevic, Ai Koyanagi, Shailesh Advani, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Nihad A. Almasri, Abdur Razzaque Sarker, Salman Khazaei, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Josephine W. Ngunjiri, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Matthew Cunningham, Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary, Hosni Salem, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Amy E. Peden, Rajaram Yadav, Srikanta Banerjee, Kenean Getaneh Tlaye, Ronan A Lyons, Farzad Jalilian, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Soufiane Boufous, Leila R Kalankesh, Abdelrahman Ibrahim Abushouk, Mikk Jürisson, Hamid Reza Tohidinik, Flavia M. Cicuttini, Zachary V Dingels, Florian Fischer, Saad M.A. Dahlawi, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Getnet Gedefaw, Tauseef Ahmad, Faramarz Shaahmadi, Hamed Zandian, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Gregory J. Bertolacci, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Christian Lycke Ellingsen, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Dawit Habte Woldeyes, Robert C. Reiner, Rakhi Dandona, Akram Pourshams, Lorainne Tudor Car, Inbal Salz, Reza Mohammadpourhodki, Farnam Mohebi, A. A. Fomenkov, Abraham Getachew Kelbore, Benjamin B. Massenburg, Yousef Mohammad, Arash Ziapour, Zabihollah Yousefi, Biresaw Wassihun Alemu, Neeti Kapoor, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Vinod C. Nayak, Yoshan Moodley, Venkatesh Maled, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Arielle Wilder Eagan, Saif Ullah, Anwar Rafay, Ali Koolivand, Ibrahim A Khalil, Parul Puri, Lidia Sanchez Riera, Vinay Nangia, Tanuj Kanchan, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Lidia Morawska, Saeed Shahabi, Tiffany K. Gill, Traolach S. Brugha, Michael K. Hole, Vahid Alipour, Sowmya J. Rao, Pankaj Singh, Rosario Cárdenas, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Sanjay Zodpey, Birhanu Geta, Amaha Kahsay, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Samer Hamidi, Gbenga A. Kayode, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Peter Memiah, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Sadia Bibi, Bartosz Miazgowski, Daniel Y. Cho, Keyvan Pakshir, Aziz Rezapour, R V Polibin, Sudha Jayaraman, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Amir Manafi, Berhe Gebremichael, Ali Yadollahpour, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Alan D. Lopez, Masoud Behzadifar, Mohammad A. Mohseni Bandpei, Ali Kabir, Jee-Young Jasmine Choi, Gebretsadkan Hintsa Tekulu, Kidanemaryam Berhe, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Sanofi, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Clinicum, University of Helsinki, Helsinki University Hospital Area, HUS Neurocenter, James, S. L., Castle, C. D., Dingels, Z. V., Fox, J. T., Hamilton, E. B., Liu, Z., Roberts, N. L. S., Sylte, D. O., Bertolacci, G. J., Cunningham, M., Henry, N. J., Legrand, K. E., Abdelalim, A., Abdollahpour, I., Abdulkader, R. S., Abedi, A., Abegaz, K. H., Abosetugn, A. E., Abushouk, A. I., Adebayo, O. M., Adsuar, J. C., Advani, S. M., Agudelo-Botero, M., Ahmad, T., Ahmed, M. B., Ahmed, R., Aichour, M. T. E., Alahdab, F., Alanezi, F. M., Alema, N. M., Alemu, B. W., Alghnam, S. A., Ali, B. A., Ali, S., Alinia, C., Alipour, V., Aljunid, S. M., Almasi-Hashiani, A., Almasri, N. A., Altirkawi, K., Amer, Y. S. A., Andrei, C. L., Ansari-Moghaddam, A., Antonio, C. A. T., Anvari, D., Appiah, S. C. Y., Arabloo, J., Arab-Zozani, M., Arefi, Z., Aremu, O., Ariani, F., Arora, A., Asaad, M., Quintanilla, B. P. A., Ayano, G., Ayanore, M. A., Azarian, G., Badawi, A., Badiye, A. D., Baig, A. A., Bairwa, M., Bakhtiari, A., Balachandran, A., Banach, M., Banerjee, S. K., Banik, P. C., Banstola, A., Barker-Collo, S. L., Barnighausen, T. W., Barzegar, A., Bayati, M., Bazargan-Hejazi, S., Bedi, N., Behzadifar, M., Belete, H., Bennett, D. A., Bensenor, I. M., Berhe, K., Bhagavathula, A. S., Bhardwaj, P., Bhat, A. G., Bhattacharyya, K., Bhutta, Z. A., Bibi, S., Bijani, A., Boloor, A., Borges, G., Borschmann, R., Borzi, A. M., Boufous, S., Braithwaite, D., Briko, N. I., Brugha, T., Budhathoki, S. S., Car, J., Cardenas, R., Carvalho, F., Castaldelli-Maia, J. M., Castaneda-Orjuela, C. A., Castelpietra, G., Catala-Lopez, F., Cerin, E., Chandan, J. S., Chapman, J. R., Chattu, V. K., Chattu, S. K., Chatziralli, I., Chaudhary, N., Cho, D. Y., Choi, J. -Y. J., Chowdhury, M. A. K., Christopher, D. J., Chu, D. -T., Cicuttini, F. M., Coelho, J. M., Costa, V. M., Dahlawi, S. M. A., Daryani, A., Davila-Cervantes, C. A., De Leo, D., Demeke, F. M., Demoz, G. T., Demsie, D. G., Deribe, K., Desai, R., Nasab, M. D., Da Silva, D. D., Forooshani, Z. S. D., Do, H. T., Doyle, K. E., Driscoll, T. R., Dubljanin, E., Adema, B. D., Eagan, A. W., Elemineh, D. A., El-Jaafary, S. I., El-Khatib, Z., Ellingsen, C. L., El Sayedzaki, M., Eskandarieh, S., Eyawo, O., Faris, P. S., Faro, A., Farzadfar, F., Fereshtehnejad, S. -M., Fernandes, E., Ferrara, P., Fischer, F., Folayan, M. O., Fomenkov, A. A., Foroutan, M., Francis, J. M., Franklin, R. C., Fukumoto, T., Geberemariyam, B. S., Gebremariam, H., Gebremedhin, K. B., Gebremeskel, L. G., Gebremeskel, G. G., Gebremichael, B., Gedefaw, G. A., Geta, B., Getenet, A. B., Ghafourifard, M., Ghamari, F., Gheshlagh, R. G., Gholamian, A., Gilani, S. A., Gill, T. K., Goudarzian, A. H., Goulart, A. C., Grada, A., Grivna, M., Guimaraes, R. A., Guo, Y., Gupta, G., Haagsma, J. A., Hall, B. J., Hamadeh, R. R., Hamidi, S., Handiso, D. W., Haro, J. M., Hasanzadeh, A., Hassan, S., Hassanipour, S., Hassankhani, H., Hassen, H. Y., Havmoeller, R., Hendrie, D., Heydarpour, F., Hijar, M., Ho, H. C., Hoang, C. L., Hole, M. K., Holla, R., Hossain, N., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hostiuc, S., Hu, G., Ibitoye, S. E., Ilesanmi, O. S., Inbaraj, L. R., Irvani, S. S. N., Islam, M. M., Islam, S. M. S., Ivers, R. Q., Jahani, M. A., Jakovljevic, M., Jalilian, F., Jayaraman, S., Jayatilleke, A. U., Jha, R. P., John-Akinola, Y. O., Jonas, J. B., Jones, K. M., Joseph, N., Joukar, F., Jozwiak, J. J., Jungari, S. B., Jurisson, M., Kabir, A., Kahsay, A., Kalankesh, L. R., Kalhor, R., Kamil, T. A., Kanchan, T., Kapoor, N., Karami, M., Kasaeian, A., Kassaye, H. G., Kavetskyy, T., Kayode, G. A., Keiyoro, P. N., Kelbore, A. G., Khader, Y. S., Khafaie, M. A., Khalid, N., Khalil, I. A., Khalilov, R., Khan, M., Khan, E. A., Khan, J., Khanna, T., Khazaei, S., Khazaie, H., Khundkar, R., Kiirithio, D. N., Kim, Y. -E., Kim, Y. J., Kim, D., Kisa, S., Kisa, A., Komaki, H., Kondlahalli, S. K. M., Koolivand, A., Korshunov, V. A., Koyanagi, A., Kraemer, M. U. G., Krishan, K., Defo, B. K., Bicer, B. K., Kugbey, N., Kumar, N., Kumar, M., Kumar, V., Kumaresh, G., Lami, F. H., Lansingh, V. C., Lasrado, S., Latifi, A., Lauriola, P., Vecchia, C. L., Leasher, J. L., Lee, S. W. H., Li, S., Liu, X., Lopez, A. D., Lotufo, P. A., Lyons, R. A., Machado, D. B., Madadin, M., Abd El Razek, M. M., Mahotra, N. B., Majdan, M., Majeed, A., Maled, V., Malta, D. C., Manafi, N., Manafi, A., Manda, A. -L., Manjunatha, N., Mansour-Ghanaei, F., Mansournia, M. A., Maravilla, J. C., Mason-Jones, A. J., Masoumi, S. Z., Massenburg, B. B., Maulik, P. K., Mehndiratta, M. M., Melketsedik, Z. A., Memiah, P. T. N., Mendoza, W., Menezes, R. G., Mengesha, M. M., Meretoja, T. J., Meretoja, A., Merie, H. 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Gebremeskel, L.G., Gebremeskel, G.G., Gebremichael, B., Gedefaw, G.A., Geta, B., Getenet, A.B., Ghafourifard, M., Ghamari, F., Gheshlagh, R.G., Gholamian, A., Gilani, S.A., Gill, T.K., Goudarzian, A.H., Goulart, A.C., Grada, A., Grivna, M., Guimarães, R.A., Guo, Y., Gupta, G., Haagsma, J.A., Hall, B.J., Hamadeh, R.R., Hamidi, S., Handiso, D.W., Haro, J.M., Hasanzadeh, A., Hassan, S., Hassanipour, S., Hassankhani, H., Hassen, H.Y., Havmoeller, R., Hendrie, D., Heydarpour, F., Híjar, M., Ho, H.C., Hoang, C.L., Hole, M.K., Holla, R., Hossain, N., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hostiuc, S., Hu, G., Ibitoye, S.E., Ilesanmi, O.S., Inbaraj, L.R., Irvani, S.S.N., Islam, M.M., Islam, S.M.S., Ivers, R.Q., Jahani, M.A., Jakovljevic, M., Jalilian, F., Jayaraman, S., Jayatilleke, A.U., Jha, R.P., John-Akinola, Y.O., Jonas, J.B., Jones, K.M., Joseph, N., Joukar, F., Jozwiak, J.J., Jungari, S.B., Jürisson, M., Kabir, A., Kahsay, A., Kalankesh, L.R., Kalhor, R., Kamil, T.A., Kanchan, T., Kapoor, N., Karami, M., Kasaeian, A., Kassaye, H.G., Kavetskyy, T., Kayode, G.A., Keiyoro, P.N., Kelbore, A.G., Khader, Y.S., Khafaie, M.A., Khalid, N., Khalil, I.A., Khalilov, R., Khan, M., Khan, E.A., Khan, J., Khanna, T., Khazaei, S., Khazaie, H., Khundkar, R., Kiirithio, D.N., Kim, Y.-E., Kim, Y.J., Kim, D., Kisa, S., Kisa, A., Komaki, H., Kondlahalli, S.K.M., Koolivand, A., Korshunov, V.A., Koyanagi, A., Kraemer, M.U.G., Krishan, K., Defo, B.K., Bicer, B.K., Kugbey, N., Kumar, N., Kumar, M., Kumar, V., Kumar, N., Kumaresh, G., Lami, F.H., Lansingh, V.C., Lasrado, S., Latifi, A., Lauriola, P., Vecchia, C.L., Leasher, J.L., Lee, S.W.H., Li, S., Liu, X., Lopez, A.D., Lotufo, P.A., Lyons, R.A., Machado, D.B., Madadin, M., Abd El Razek, M.M., Mahotra, N.B., Majdan, M., Majeed, A., Maled, V., Malta, D.C., Manafi, N., Manafi, A., Manda, A.-L., Manjunatha, N., Mansour-Ghanaei, F., Mansournia, M.A., Maravilla, J.C., Mason-Jones, A.J., Masoumi, S.Z., Massenburg, B.B., Maulik, P.K., Mehndiratta, M.M., Melketsedik, Z.A., Memiah, P.T.N., Mendoza, W., Menezes, R.G., Mengesha, M.M., Meretoja, T.J., Meretoja, A., Merie, H.E., Mestrovic, T., Miazgowski, B., Miazgowski, T., Miller, T.R., Mini, G.K., Mirica, A., Mirrakhimov, E.M., Mirzaei-Alavijeh, M., Mithra, P., Moazen, B., Moghadaszadeh, M., Mohamadi, E., Mohammad, Y., Darwesh, A.M., Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A., Mohammadpourhodki, R., Mohammed, S., Mohammed, J.A., Mohebi, F., Bandpei, M.A.M., Molokhia, M., Monasta, L., Moodley, Y., Moradi, M., Moradi, G., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Moradzadeh, R., Morawska, L., Velásquez, I.M., Morrison, S.D., Mossie, T.B., Muluneh, A.G., Musa, K.I., Mustafa, G., Naderi, M., Nagarajan, A.J., Naik, G., Naimzada, M.D., Najaf, F., Nangia, V., Nascimento, B.R., Naserbakht, M., Nayak, V., Nazari, J., Ndwandwe, D.E., Negoi, I., Ngunjiri, J.W., Nguyen, T.H., Nguyen, C.T., Nguyen, D.N., Nguyen, H.L.T., Nikbakhsh, R., Ningrum, D.N.A., Nnaji, C.A., Ofori-Asenso, R., Ogbo, F.A., Oghenetega, O.B., Oh, I.-H., Olagunju, A.T., Olagunju, T.O., Bali, A.O., Onwujekwe, O.E., Orpana, H.M., Ota, E., Otstavnov, N., Otstavnov, S.S., Mahesh, A.P., Padubidri, J.R., Pakhale, S., Pakshir, K., Panda-Jonas, S., Park, E.-K., Patel, S.K., Pathak, A., Pati, S., Paulos, K., Peden, A.E., Pepito, V.C.F., Pereira, J., Phillips, M.R., Polibin, R.V., Polinder, S., Pourmalek, F., Pourshams, A., Poustchi, H., Prakash, S., Pribadi, D.R.A., Puri, P., Syed, Z.Q., Rabiee, N., Rabiee, M., Radfar, A., Rafay, A., Rafee, A., Rafei, A., Rahim, F., Rahimi, S., Rahman, M.A., Rajabpour-Sanati, A., Rajati, F., Rakovac, I., Rao, S.J., Rashedi, V., Rastogi, P., Rathi, P., Rawaf, S., Rawal, L., Rawassizadeh, R., Renjith, V., Resnikoff, S., Rezapour, A., Ribeiro, A.I., Rickard, J., González, C.M.R., Roever, L., Ronfani, L., Roshandel, G., Saddik, B., Safarpour, H., Safdarian, M., Sajadi, S.M., Salamati, P., Salem, M.R.R., Salem, H., Salz, I., Samy, A.M., Sanabria, J., Riera, L.S., Milicevic, M.M.S., Sarker, A.R., Sarveazad, A., Sathian, B., Sawhney, M., Sayyah, M., Schwebel, D.C., Seedat, S., Senthilkumaran, S., Seyedmousavi, S., Sha, F., Shaahmadi, F., Shahabi, S., Shaikh, M.A., Shams-Beyranvand, M., Sheikh, A., Shigematsu, M., Shin, J.I., Shiri, R., Siabani, S., Sigfusdottir, I.D., Singh, J.A., Singh, P.K., Sinha, D.N., Soheili, A., Soriano, J.B., Sorrie, M.B., Soyiri, I.N., Stokes, M.A., Sufiyan, M.B., Sykes, B.L., Tabarés-Seisdedos, R., Tabb, K.M., Taddele, B.W., Tefera, Y.M., Tehrani-Banihashemi, A., Tekulu, G.H., Tesema, A.K.T., Tesfay, B.E., Thapar, R., Titova, M.V., Tlaye, K.G., Tohidinik, H.R., Topor-Madry, R., Tran, K.B., Tran, B.X., Tripathy, J.P., Tsai, A.C., Tsatsakis, A., Car, L.T., Ullah, I., Ullah, S., Unnikrishnan, B., Upadhyay, E., Uthman, O.A., Valdez, P.R., Vasankari, T.J., Veisani, Y., Venketasubramanian, N., Violante, F.S., Vlassov, V., Waheed, Y., Wang, Y.-P., Wiangkham, T., Wolde, H.F., Woldeyes, D.H., Wondmeneh, T.G., Wondmieneh, A.B., Wu, A.-M., Wyper, G.M.A., Yadav, R., Yadollahpour, A., Yano, Y., Yaya, S., Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V., Ye, P., Yip, P., Yisma, E., Yonemoto, N., Yoon, S.-J., Youm, Y., Younis, M.Z., Yousef, Z., Yu, C., Yu, Y., Moghadam, T.Z., Zaidi, Z., Zaman, S.B., Zamani, M., Zandian, H., Zarei, F., Zhang, Z.-J., Zhang, Y., Ziapour, A., Zodpey, S., Dandona, R., Dharmaratne, S.D., Hay, S.I., Mokdad, A.H., Pigott, D.M., Reiner, R.C., Vos, T., Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto, James, Spencer L, Castle, Chris D, Dingels, Zachary V, Fox, Jack T, Adema, Bereket Duko, Yisma, Engida, Vos, Theo, and Public Health

Subjects
Male, Populations/contexts, 1106 Human Movement and Sports Sciences, Global injuries, population, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, Global Health, contexts, context, Global Burden of Disease, 0302 clinical medicine, Quality-Adjusted Life Year, Global health, 030212 general & internal medicine, Original Research, Data, populations/contexts, Incidence (epidemiology), Incidence, methodology, 3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health, Female, Public Health, TERRITORIES, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, descriptive epidemiology, Human, Disabilities, 195 COUNTRIES, statistical issue, 1117 Public Health and Health Services, 03 medical and health sciences, AGE, Life Expectancy, Environmental health, Injury prevention, SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS, statistical issues, Humans, Mortality, Estimation, SEX-SPECIFIC MORTALITY, DISABILITY, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, populations, Morbidity, Wounds and Injuries, 1106 Human Movement and Sports Sciences, 1117 Public Health and Health Services, 1701 Psychology, Quality-adjusted life year, Years of potential life lost, 1701 Psychology, Life expectancy, Estimates, Human medicine, populations/context
Abstract

Background. While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods. In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results. GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions. GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future. Seyed Aljunid acknowledges the Department of Health Policy and Management, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University and International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding, Faculty of Medicine, National University of Malaysia for the approval and support to participate in this research project. Alaa Badawi acknowledges support by the Public Health Agency of Canada. Till Bärnighausen acknowledges support by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor award, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. Traolach Brugha received support from NatCen Social Research (http://natcen.ac.uk/) via NHS Digital and Department of Health and Social Care London, for the Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey (APMS) programme. Felix Carvalho received support from UID/MULTI/04378/2019 with funding from FCT/MCTES through national funds. Vera M Costa acknowledges support from grant (SFRH/BHD/110001/2015), received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), IP, under the Norma Transitória DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006. Kebede Deribe is supported by a grant from the Wellcome Trust [grant number 201900] as part of his International Intermediate Fellowship. Tim Driscoll acknowledges that work on occupational risk factors was partially supported by funds from the World Health Organization. Eduarda Fernandes acknowledges support from UID/QUI/50006/2019 with funding from FCT/MCTES through national funds. Yuming Guo acknowledges support from Career Development Fellowships of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (numbers APP1107107 and APP1163693). Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam is funded by a Fellowship from National Heart Foundation of Australia and Institute for Physical Activity and Nutrition, Deakin University. Mihajlo Jakovljevic acknowledges support by the Ministry of Education Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia through the Grant number OI175014; publication of results was not contingent upon Ministry's censorship or approval. Sudha Jayaraman acknowledges support from: NIH R21: 1R21TW010439-01A1 (PI); Rotary Foundation Global Grant #GG1749568 (PI); NIH P20: 1P20CA210284-01A1 (Co-PI) and DOD grant W81XWH-16-2-0040 (Co-I), during the period of this study. Yun Jin Kim acknowledges support from a grant from the Research Management Centre, Xiamen University Malaysia [grant number: XMUMRF/2018-C2/ITCM/0001]. Kewal Krishan is supported by UGC Centre of Advanced Study (CAS II) awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. Mansai Kumar acknowledges support from FIC/ NIH K43 1K43MH114320-01. Amanda Mason-Jones acknowledges support by the University of York. Mariam Molokhia is supported by the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Center at Guy’s and St Thomas’s National Health Service Foundation Trust and King’s College London. Ilais Moreno Velasquez is supported by the Sistema Nacional de Investigación (SNI, Senacyt, Panama). Mukhammad David Naimzada acknowledges support from Government of the Russian Federation (Agreement No – 075-02-2019-967). Duduzile Ndwandwe acknowledges support from Cochrane South Africa, South African Medical Research Council. Stanislav S. Otstavnov acknowledges the support from the Government of the Russian Federation (Agreement No – 075-02-2019-967). Ashish Pathak acknowledges support from Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), New Delhi, India (Grant number 2013-1253). Michael R Phillips acknowledges support in part by a grant from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.81761128031). Abdallah M. Samy received a fellowship from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. Milena Santric Milicevic acknowledges the support from the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Republic of Serbia (Contract No. 175087). Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi was supported by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health, Clinical Center, Department of Laboratory Medicine, Bethesda, MD, USA. Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos was supported in part by the national grant PI17/00719 from ISCIII-FEDER. Sojib Bin Zaman acknowledges support from an "Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) Scholarship.

Published
2020

14. Global, regional, and national burden of suicide mortality 1990 to 2016:Systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author

Orpana, Heather M., Marczak, Laurie B., Arora, Megha, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abebe, Zegeye, Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Afarideh, Mohsen, Afshari, Mahdi, Ahmadi, Alireza, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Akseer, Nadia, Al‐raddadi, Rajaa M., Alahdab, Fares, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Allebeck, Peter, Alvis‐guzman, Nelson, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Anjomshoa, Mina, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Arora, Amit, Aryal, Krishna K., Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal, Awasthi, Ashish, Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala, Badali, Hamid, Barker‐collo, Suzanne Lyn, Bärnighausen, Till Winfried, Bazargan‐hejazi, Shahrzad, Benjet, Corina, Bensenor, Isabela M., Berfeld, Noami, Beuran, Mircea, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Biadgo, Belete, Bililign, Nigus, Borges, Guilherme, Borschmann, Rohan, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J.K., Brugha, Traolach, Butt, Zahid A., Carrero, Juan J., Carvalho, Félix, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Castañeda‐orjuela, Carlos A., Catalá‐lópez, Ferrán, Ciobanu, Liliana G., Dachew, Berihun Assefa, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dargan, Paul I., Daryani, Ahmad, Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil, Davletov, Kairat, Degenhardt, Louisa, Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam, Jarlais, Don C.Des, Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda, Djalalinia, Shirin, Doan, Linh, Doku, David Teye, Dubey, Manisha, El‐khatib, Ziad, Eskandarieh, Sharareh, Esteghamati, Alireza, Esteghamati, Sadaf, Faro, Andre, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fekadu, Wubalem, Fernandes, Eduarda, Ferrari, Alize J., Filip, Irina, Fischer, Florian, Foreman, Kyle J., Fukumoto, Takeshi, Gebre, Abadi Kahsu, Grosso, Giuseppe, Gupta, Rahul, Haagsma, Juanita A., Bidgoli, Hassan Haghparast, Haj‐mirzaian, Arvin, Hamidi, Samer, Hankey, Graeme J., Haro, Josep Maria, Hassen, Hamid Yimam, Hay, Simon I., Heidari, Behnam, Hendrie, Delia, Rad, Enayatollah Homaie, Hosseini, Seyed Mostafa, Hostiuc, Sorin, Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi, Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful, Jakovljevic, Mihajlo, James, Spencer, Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra, Jha, Ravi Prakash, Jonas, Jost B., Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy, Kadel, Rajendra, Kahsay, Amaha, Kasaeian, Amir, Kassa, Getachew Mullu, Kawakami, Norito, Kefale, Adane Teshome, Kemp, Grant Rodgers, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif, Khalil, Ibrahim A., Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khan, Muhammad Ali, Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb, Khang, Young Ho, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A., Kieling, Christian, Kim, Young Eun, Kisa, Adnan, Knudsen, Ann Kristin Skrindo, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Koyanagi, Ai, Krish, Varsha Sarah, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kumar, G. Anil, Kumar, Manasi, Lamichhane, Prabhat, Lang, Justin J., Latifi, Arman, Lee, Paul H., Leung, Janni, Lim, Lee Ling, Lopez, Alan D., Lorkowski, Stefan, Lotufo, Paulo A., Lozano, Rafael, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Mahesh, P. A., Majdan, Marek, Majdzadeh, Reza, Malekzadeh, Reza, Manda, Ana Laura, Mansournia, Mohammad Ali, Mantovani, Lorenzo Giovanni, Maravilla, Joemer C., Martinez‐raga, Jose, Mathur, Manu Raj, Maulik, Pallab K., McGrath, John J., Mehrotra, Ravi, Mekonen, Tesfa, Mendoza, Walter, Meretoja, Tuomo J., Mestrovic, Tomislav, Miller, Ted R., Mini, G. K., Mirrakhimov, Erkin M., Mitchell, Philip B., Moazen, Babak, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mohammadi, Moslem, Mohammed, Shafiu, Mokdad, Ali H., Monasta, Lorenzo, Moosazadeh, Mahmood, Moradi, Ghobad, Moradi‐lakeh, Maziar, Moradinazar, Mehdi, Velásquez, Ilais Moreno, Morisaki, Naho, Morrison, Shane Douglas, Moschos, Marilita M., Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam, Mustafa, Ghulam, Nagel, Gabriele, Naheed, Aliya, Naik, Gurudatta, Najafi, Farid, Negoi, Ionut, Negoi, Ruxandra Irina, Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi, Nguyen, Long Hoang, Nixon, Molly R., Ofori‐asenso, Richard, Ogbo, Felix Akpojene, Oh, In Hwan, Olagunju, Andrew T., Olagunju, Tinuke O., Øverland, Simon, Owolabi, Mayowa Ojo, Panda‐jonas, Songhomitra, Parry, Charles D.H., Pati, Sanghamitra, Patten, Scott B., Patton, George C., Petzold, Max, Phillips, Michael R., Plana‐ripoll, Oleguer, Postma, Maarten J., Pourshams, Akram, Poustchi, Hossein, Qorbani, Mostafa, Radfar, Amir, Rafay, Anwar, Rafiei, Alireza, Rahim, Fakher, Rahimi‐movaghar, Afarin, Rahimi‐movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Rezaeian, Shahab, Roever, Leonardo, Ronfani, Luca, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Rostami, Ali, Sachdev, Perminder S., Safari, Hosein, Safiri, Saeid, Salamati, Payman, Salimi, Yahya, Salomon, Joshua A., Samy, Abdallah M., Santos, Itamar S., Santric‐milicevic, Milena M., Sartorius, Benn, Sarvi, Shahabeddin, Satpathy, Maheswar, Sawhney, Monika, Schwebel, David C., Sepanlou, Sadaf G., Shaikh, Masood Ali, Sharif, Mehdi, Shibuya, Kenji, Shigematsu, Mika, Shiri, Rahman, Shiue, Ivy, Siabani, Soraya, Siddiqi, Tariq J., Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Silva, João Pedro, Singh, Jasvinder A., Filho, Adauto Martins Soares, Sobhani, Soheila, Stein, Dan J., Stein, Murray B., Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale, Sunguya, Bruno F., Tabarés‐seisdedos, Rafael, Tabb, Karen M., Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Tehrani‐banihashemi, Arash, Temsah, Mohamad Hani, Topor‐madry, Roman, Tran, Bach Xuan, Tran, Khanh Bao, Ullah, Irfan, Unutzer, Jurgen, Usman, Muhammad Shariq, Uthman, Olalekan A., Valdez, Pascual R., Yonemoto, Naohiro, Vasconcelos, Cintia, Vlassov, Vasily, Vos, Theo, Vujcic, Isidora S., Waheed, Yasir, Wang, Yuan Pang, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Werdecker, Andrea, Westerman, Ronny, Whiteford, Harvey A., Wyper, Grant M.A., Yaseri, Mehdi, Yimer, Ebrahim M., Yisma, Engida, Yoon, Seok Jun, Yotebieng, Marcel, Yousefifard, Mahmoud, Yu, Chuanhua, Zaidi, Zoubida, Zamani, Mohammad, Murray, Christopher J.L., Naghavi, Mohsen, Orpana, H, Marczak, L, Arora, M, Abbasi, N, Abdulkader, R, Abebe, Z, Abraha, H, Afarideh, M, Afshari, M, Ahmadi, A, Aichour, A, Aichour, I, Aichour, M, Akseer, N, Al‐raddadi, R, Alahdab, F, Alkerwi, A, Allebeck, P, Alvis‐guzman, N, Anber, N, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, C, Arora, A, Aryal, K, Asgedom, S, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, B, Badali, H, Barker‐collo, S, Bärnighausen, T, Bazargan‐hejazi, S, Benjet, C, Bensenor, I, Berfeld, N, Beuran, M, Bhutta, Z, Biadgo, B, Bililign, N, Borges, G, Borschmann, R, Brazinova, A, Breitborde, N, Brugha, T, Butt, Z, Carrero, J, Carvalho, F, Malta, D, Castañeda‐orjuela, C, Catalá‐lópez, F, Ciobanu, L, Dachew, B, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dargan, P, Daryani, A, Davitoiu, D, Davletov, K, Degenhardt, L, Demoz, G, Jarlais, D, Dharmaratne, S, Djalalinia, S, Doan, L, Doku, D, Dubey, M, El‐khatib, Z, Eskandarieh, S, Esteghamati, A, Esteghamati, S, Faro, A, Farzadfar, F, Fekadu, W, Fernandes, E, Ferrari, A, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foreman, K, Fukumoto, T, Gebre, A, Grosso, G, Gupta, R, Haagsma, J, Bidgoli, H, Haj‐mirzaian, A, Hamidi, S, Hankey, G, Haro, J, Hassen, H, Hay, S, Heidari, B, Hendrie, D, Rad, E, Hosseini, S, Hostiuc, S, Irvani, S, Islam, S, Jakovljevic, M, James, S, Jayatilleke, A, Jha, R, Jonas, J, Jozwiak, J, Kadel, R, Kahsay, A, Kasaeian, A, Kassa, G, Kawakami, N, Kefale, A, Kemp, G, Khader, Y, Khafaie, M, Khalil, I, Khan, E, Khan, M, Khang, Y, Khubchandani, J, Kiadaliri, A, Kieling, C, Kim, Y, Kisa, A, Knudsen, A, Kokubo, Y, Koyanagi, A, Krish, V, Defo, B, Kumar, G, Kumar, M, Lamichhane, P, Lang, J, Latifi, A, Lee, P, Leung, J, Lim, L, Lopez, A, Lorkowski, S, Lotufo, P, Lozano, R, Lunevicius, R, Mahesh, P, Majdan, M, Majdzadeh, R, Malekzadeh, R, Manda, A, Mansournia, M, Mantovani, L, Maravilla, J, Martinez‐raga, J, Mathur, M, Maulik, P, Mcgrath, J, Mehrotra, R, Mekonen, T, Mendoza, W, Meretoja, T, Mestrovic, T, Miller, T, Mini, G, Mirrakhimov, E, Mitchell, P, Moazen, B, Mohammad, K, Mohammadi, M, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, A, Monasta, L, Moosazadeh, M, Moradi, G, Moradi‐lakeh, M, Moradinazar, M, Velásquez, I, Morisaki, N, Morrison, S, Moschos, M, Mousavi, S, Mustafa, G, Nagel, G, Naheed, A, Naik, G, Najafi, F, Negoi, I, Negoi, R, Nguyen, H, Nguyen, L, Nixon, M, Ofori‐asenso, R, Ogbo, F, Oh, I, Olagunju, A, Olagunju, T, Øverland, S, Owolabi, M, Panda‐jonas, S, Parry, C, Pati, S, Patten, S, Patton, G, Petzold, M, Phillips, M, Plana‐ripoll, O, Postma, M, Pourshams, A, Poustchi, H, Qorbani, M, Radfar, A, Rafay, A, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi‐movaghar, A, Rahimi‐movaghar, V, Rahman, M, Rai, R, Rezaeian, S, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Rostami, A, Sachdev, P, Safari, H, Safiri, S, Salamati, P, Salimi, Y, Salomon, J, Samy, A, Santos, I, Santric‐milicevic, M, Sartorius, B, Sarvi, S, Satpathy, M, Sawhney, M, Schwebel, D, Sepanlou, S, Shaikh, M, Sharif, M, Shibuya, K, Shigematsu, M, Shiri, R, Shiue, I, Siabani, S, Siddiqi, T, Sigfusdottir, I, Silva, J, Singh, J, Filho, A, Sobhani, S, Stein, D, Stein, M, Sufiyan, M, Sunguya, B, Tabarés‐seisdedos, R, Tabb, K, Tavakkoli, M, Tehrani‐banihashemi, A, Temsah, M, Topor‐madry, R, Tran, B, Tran, K, Ullah, I, Unutzer, J, Usman, M, Uthman, O, Valdez, P, Vasankari, T, Vasconcelos, C, Vlassov, V, Vos, T, Vujcic, I, Waheed, Y, Wang, Y, Weiderpass, E, Werdecker, A, Westerman, R, Whiteford, H, Wyper, G, Yaseri, M, Yimer, E, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Yoon, S, Yotebieng, M, Yousefifard, M, Yu, C, Zaidi, Z, Zamani, M, Murray, C, and Naghavi, M

Subjects
Suicide Prevention, Adult, Cross-Cultural Comparison, Male, Data Interpretation, Adolescent, Outcome Assessment, Age Distribution, Age Factors, Aged, Cause of Death, Data Interpretation, Statistical, Female, Global Health, Humans, Life Expectancy, Mortality, Outcome Assessment, Health Care, Sex Distribution, Sex Factors, Socioeconomic Factors, Global Burden of Disease, Suicide, Medicine (all), Research, Statistical, Health Care
Abstract

Objectives To use the estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 to describe patterns of suicide mortality globally, regionally, and for 195 countries and territories by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index, and to describe temporal trends between 1990 and 2016. Design Systematic analysis. Main outcome measures Crude and age standardised rates from suicide mortality and years of life lost were compared across regions and countries, and by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index (a composite measure of fertility, income, and education). Results The total number of deaths from suicide increased by 6.7% (95% uncertainty interval 0.4% to 15.6%) globally over the 27 year study period to 817 000 (762 000 to 884 000) deaths in 2016. However, the age standardised mortality rate for suicide decreased by 32.7% (27.2% to 36.6%) worldwide between 1990 and 2016, similar to the decline in the global age standardised mortality rate of 30.6%. Suicide was the leading cause of age standardised years of life lost in the Global Burden of Disease region of high income Asia Pacific and was among the top 10 leading causes in eastern Europe, central Europe, western Europe, central Asia, Australasia, southern Latin America, and high income North America. Rates for men were higher than for women across regions, countries, and age groups, except for the 15 to 19 age group. There was variation in the female to male ratio, with higher ratios at lower levels of Socio-demographic index. Women experienced greater decreases in mortality rates (49.0%, 95% uncertainty interval 42.6% to 54.6%) than men (23.8%, 15.6% to 32.7%). Conclusions Age standardised mortality rates for suicide have greatly reduced since 1990, but suicide remains an important contributor to mortality worldwide. Suicide mortality was variable across locations, between sexes, and between age groups. Suicide prevention strategies can be targeted towards vulnerable populations if they are informed by variations in mortality rates.

Published
2019

15. Carga global, regional y nacional de neurológicas. Desórdenes, 1990-2016: un análisis sistemático para el Global Estudio de la carga de enfermedad 2016

Author

Feigin V, Nichols E, Alam T, Bannick M, Beghi E, Blake N, Culpepper W, Dorsey E, Elbaz A, Ellenbogen R, Fisher J, Fitzmaurice C, Giussani G, Glennie L, James S, Johnson C, Kassebaum N, Logroscino G, Marin B, Mountjoy-Venning W, Nguyen M, Ofori-Asenso R, Patel A, Piccininni M, Roth G, Steiner T, Stovner L, Szoeke C, Theadom A, Vollset S, Wallin M, Wright C, Zunt J, Abbasi N, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Aboyans V, Abraha H, Acharya D, Adamu A, Adebayo O, Adeoye A, Adsuar J, Afarideh M, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmed M, Aichour A, Aichour I, Aichour M, Akinyemi R, Akseer N, Al-Eyadhy A, Salman R, Alahdab F, Alene K, Aljunid S, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Anber N, Antonio C, Arabloo J, Aremu O, Arnlov J, Asayesh H, Asghar R, Atalay H, Awasthi A, Quintanilla B, Ayuk T, Badawi A, Banach M, Banoub J, Barboza M, Barker-Collo S, Barnighausen T, Baune B, Bedi N, Behzadifar M, Bejot Y, Bekele B, Belachew A, Bennett D, Bensenor I, Berhane A, Beuran M, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta Z, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed M, Blazes C, Brayne C, Butt Z, Campos-Nonato I, Cantu-Brito C, Car M, Cardenas R, Carrero J, Carvalho F, Castaneda-Orjuela C, Castro F, Catala-Lopez F, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Chang J, Chatziralli I, Chiang P, Christensen H, Christopher D, Cooper C, Cortesi P, Costa V, Criqui M, Crowe C, Damasceno A, Daryani A, De la Cruz-Gongora V, De la Hoz F, De Leo D, Degefa M, Demoz G, Deribe K, Dharmaratne S, Diaz D, Dinberu M, Djalalinia S, Doku D, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken E, Edvardsson D, El-Khatib Z, Endres M, Endries A, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Esteghamati S, Farhadi F, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Farzaei M, Fatima B, Fereshtehnejad S, Fernandes E, Feyissa G, Filip I, Fischer F, Fukumoto T, Ganji M, Gankpe F, Garcia-Gordillo M, Gebre A, Gebremichael T, Gelaw B, Geleijnse J, Geremew D, Gezae K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Gidey M, Gill P, Gill T, Gnedovskaya E, Goulart A, Grada A, Grosso G, Guo Y, Gupta R, Haagsma J, Hagos T, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh R, Hamidi S, Hankey G, Hao Y, Haro J, Hassankhani H, Hassen H, Havmoeller R, Hay S, Hegazy M, Heidari B, Henok A, Heydarpour F, Hoang C, Hole M, Rad E, Hosseini S, Hu G, Igumbor E, Ilesanmi O, Irvani S, Islam S, Jakovljevic M, Javanbakht M, Jha R, Jobanputra Y, Jonas J, Jozwiak J, Jurisson M, Kahsay A, Kalani R, Kalkonde Y, Kamil T, Kanchan T, Karami M, Karch A, Karimi N, Kasaeian A, Kassa T, Kassa Z, Kaul A, Kefale A, Keiyoro P, Khader Y, Khafaie M, Khalil I, Khan E, Khang Y, Khazaie H, Kiadaliri A, Kiirithio D, Kim A, Kim D, Kim Y, Kisa A, Kokubo Y, Koyanagi A, Krishnamurthi R, Defo B, Bicer B, Kumar M, Lacey B, Lafranconi A, Lansingh V, Latifi A, Leshargie C, Li S, Liao Y, Linn S, Lo W, Lopez J, Lorkowski S, Lotufo P, Lucas R, Lunevicius R, Mackay M, Mahotra N, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta D, Manafi N, Mansournia M, Mantovani L, Marz W, Mashamba-Thompson T, Massenburg B, Mate K, McAlinden C, McGrath J, Mehta V, Meier T, Meles H, Melese A, Memiah P, Memish Z, Mendoza W, Mengistu D, 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Rawaf D, Rawaf S, Reinig N, Reis C, Renzaho A, Resnikoff S, Rezaeian S, Rezai M, Gonzalez C, Roberts N, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roro E, Roshandel G, Rostami A, Sabbagh P, Sacco R, Sachdev P, Saddik B, Safari H, Safari-Faramani R, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahathevan R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian M, Salamati P, Zahabi S, Salimi Y, Samy A, Sanabria J, Santos I, Milicevic M, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Sawant A, Sawhney M, Schneider I, Schottker B, Schwebel D, Seedat S, Sepanlou S, Shabaninejad H, Shafieesabet A, Shaikh M, Shakir R, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, She J, Sheikh A, Sheth K, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shiue I, Siabani S, Siddiqi T, Sigfusdottir I, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silberberg D, Silva J, Silveira D, Singh J, Sinha D, Skiadaresi E, Smith M, Sobaih B, Sobhani S, Soofi M, Soyiri I, Sposato L, Stein D, Stein M, Stokes M, Sufiyan M, Sykes B, Sylaja P, Tabares-Seisdedos R, Ao B, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temsah M, 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Lunevicius R., Mackay M.T., Mahotra N.B., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Manafi N., Mansournia M.A., Mantovani L.G., Marz W., Mashamba-Thompson T.P., Massenburg B.B., Mate K.K.V., McAlinden C., McGrath J.J., Mehta V., Meier T., Meles H.G., Melese A., Memiah P.T.N., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mengistu G., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mestrovic T., Miazgowski B., Miazgowski T., Miller T.R., Mini G.K., Mirrakhimov E.M., Moazen B., Mohajer B., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N., Mohammadi M., Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani M., Mohammadibakhsh R., Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M., Mohammed S., Mohebi F., Mokdad A.H., Monasta L., Mondello S., Moodley Y., Moosazadeh M., Moradi G., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradinazar M., Moraga P., Moreno Velasquez I., Morrison S.D., Mousavi S.M., Muhammed O.S., Muruet W., Musa K.I., Mustafa G., Naderi M., Nagel G., Naheed A., Naik G., Najafi F., Nangia V., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Newton C.R.J., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen L.H., Ningrum D.N.A., 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Hegazy, M, Heidari, B, Henok, A, Heydarpour, F, Hoang, C, Hole, M, Homaie Rad, E, Hosseini, S, Hu, G, Igumbor, E, Ilesanmi, O, Irvani, S, Islam, S, Jakovljevic, M, Javanbakht, M, Jha, R, Jobanputra, Y, Jonas, J, Jozwiak, J, Jürisson, M, Kahsay, A, Kalani, R, Kalkonde, Y, Kamil, T, Kanchan, T, Karami, M, Karch, A, Karimi, N, Kasaeian, A, Kassa, T, Kassa, Z, Kaul, A, Kefale, A, Keiyoro, P, Khader, Y, Khafaie, M, Khalil, I, Khan, E, Khang, Y, Khazaie, H, Kiadaliri, A, Kiirithio, D, Kim, A, Kim, D, Kim, Y, Kisa, A, Kokubo, Y, Koyanagi, A, Krishnamurthi, R, Kuate Defo, B, Kucuk Bicer, B, Kumar, M, Lacey, B, Lafranconi, A, Lansingh, V, Latifi, A, Leshargie, C, Li, S, Liao, Y, Linn, S, Lo, W, Lopez, J, Lorkowski, S, Lotufo, P, Lucas, R, Lunevicius, R, Mackay, M, Mahotra, N, Majdan, M, Majdzadeh, R, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malta, D, Manafi, N, Mansournia, M, Mantovani, L, März, W, Mashamba-Thompson, T, Massenburg, B, Mate, K, Mcalinden, C, Mcgrath, J, Mehta, V, Meier, T, Meles, H, Melese, A, Memiah, P, Memish, Z, Mendoza, W, Mengistu, D, Mengistu, G, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, T, Mestrovic, T, Miazgowski, B, Miazgowski, T, Miller, T, Mini, G, Mirrakhimov, E, Moazen, B, Mohajer, B, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N, Mohammadi, M, Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani, M, Mohammadibakhsh, R, Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, A, Monasta, L, Mondello, S, Moodley, Y, Moosazadeh, M, Moradi, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moradinazar, M, Moraga, P, Moreno Velásquez, I, Morrison, S, Mousavi, S, Muhammed, O, Muruet, W, Musa, K, Mustafa, G, Naderi, M, Nagel, G, Naheed, A, Naik, G, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Negoi, I, Negoi, R, Newton, C, Ngunjiri, J, Nguyen, C, Nguyen, L, Ningrum, D, Nirayo, Y, Nixon, M, Norrving, B, Noubiap, J, Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M, Nyasulu, P, Ogah, O, Oh, I, Olagunju, A, Olagunju, T, Olivares, P, Onwujekwe, O, Oren, E, Owolabi, M, Pa, M, Pakpour, A, Pan, W, Panda-Jonas, S, Pandian, J, Patel, S, Pereira, D, Petzold, M, Pillay, J, Piradov, M, Polanczyk, G, Polinder, S, Postma, M, 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Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine (LKCMedicine), Clinicum, Department of Neurosciences, Neurologian yksikkö, Department of Surgery, University of Helsinki, II kirurgian klinikka, and HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center

Subjects
Dánarmein, Male, Epidemiology, Diseases, Malalties cerebrals, Global Burden of Disease, Disability Evaluation, 0302 clinical medicine, Case fatality rate, Psychology, Konur, Cause of death, Aged, 80 and over, education.field_of_study, Incidence, Men, Taugavísindi, ddc, 3. Good health, Sálfræði, World health, Muerte, Neurology, GBD 2016 Neurology Collaborators, Brain diseases, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Alzheimer disease, Carga global de enfermedades, Nervous system, medicine.medical_specialty, Global burden of diseases, Lífsgæði, Article, 03 medical and health sciences, Health Sciences, Humans, Women, education, Trastornos neurológicos, VLAG, Aged, Science & Technology, 3112 Neurosciences, Global Burden of Diseases, 030104 developmental biology, Years of potential life lost, Επιστήμες Υγείας, Dementia, Human medicine, Neurosciences & Neurology, Neurology (clinical), Clinical Medicine, 1109 Neurosciences, Neurological disorders, 030217 neurology & neurosurgery, dementia, RC, 0301 basic medicine, Pediatrics, Dánartíðni, Nutrition and Disease, 3124 Neurology and psychiatry, Disease Study, Taugasjúkdómar, Risk Factors, Voeding en Ziekte, Cause of Death, Global health, Prevalence, Causes of death, Public health, Mortality rate, Mental Disorders, Age Factors, Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology, Middle Aged, neurologic disease, Death, Lýðheilsa, Female, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Quality of life, Adult, Population, Clinical Neurology, Sex Factors, medicine, Life Science, Disability-adjusted life year, Medicine [Science], Mortality, Psychiatry, Disease burden, Neurology & Neurosurgery, burden of neurological disorders, Faraldsfræði, business.industry, Klinisk medicin, Causes de la mort, 1103 Clinical Sciences, Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi, Socioeconomic Factors, Karlar, global disease burden, Nervous System Diseases, Cause of death/trends, business
Abstract

Publisher´s version (útgefin grein)., Background Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias, Parkinson’s disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer’s and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies., ROA is funded by the National Institutes of Health (U01HG010273). SMA acknowledges the International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding, Faculty of Medicine, National University of Malaysia and Department of Health Policy and Management, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University for the approval and support to participate in this research project. AAw acknowledges funding support from Department of Science and Technology, Government of India, New Delhi, through INSPIRE Faculty scheme. TBA acknowledges partial funding from the Institute of Medical Research and Medicinal Plant Studies. ABa is supported by the Public Health Agency of Canada. TWB was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor Award, funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. MSBS acknowledges support from the Australian Government Research and Training Program scholarship for a PhD degree at the Australian National University, Australia. JJC is supported by the Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation. FCar is supported by the European Union (FEDER funds POCI/01/0145/FEDER/007728 and POCI/01/0145/FEDER/007265) and National Funds (FCT/MEC, Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia and Ministerio da Educacao e Ciencia) under the Partnership Agreements PT2020 UID/MULTI/04378/2013 and PT2020UID/QUI/50006/2013. EC is supported by an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT3 140100085). KD is supported by a Wellcome Trust [Grant Number 201900] as part of his International Intermediate Fellowship. EF is supported by the European Union (FEDER funds POCI/01/0145/FEDER/007728 and POCI/01/0145/FEDER/007265) and National Funds (FCT/MEC, Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia and Ministerio da Educacao e Ciencia) under the Partnership Agreements PT2020 UID/MULTI/04378/2013 and PT2020UID/QUI/50006/2013. SMSI is funded by the Institute for Physical Activity and Nutrition (IPAN), Deakin University and received funding from High Blood Pressure Research Council of Australia. YKa is a DBT/Wellcome Trust India Alliance Fellow in Public Health. YJK is supported by the Office of Research and Innovation at Xiamen University Malaysia. BL acknowledges funding from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. WDL is supported in part by U10NS086484 NINDS. SLo is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (nutriCARD, grant agreement number 01EA1411A). RML is supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia Senior Research Fellowship. AMa and the Imperial College London are grateful for support from the NW London NIHR Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care. JJM is supported by the Danish National Research Foundation (Niels Bohr Professorship), and the John Cade Fellowship (APP1056929) from NHMRC. TMei acknowledges additional institutional support from the Competence Cluster for Nutrition and Cardiovascular Health (nutriCARD), Jena-Halle-Leipzig. IMV is supported by the Sistema Nacional de Investigacion (Panama). MOO is supported by SIREN U54 U54HG007479 and SIBS Genomics R01NS107900 grants. AMS was supported by a fellowship from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. MMSM acknowledges the support from the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Republic of Serbia (contract no 175087). AShe is supported by Health Data Research UK. MBS' work on traumatic brain injury is supported by grants NIH U01 NS086090 (PI G Manley) from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and DoD W81XWH-14-2-0176 (PI G Manley) from the United States Department of Defense. RTS is supported in part by grant number PROMETEOII/2015/021 from Generalitat Valenciana and the national grant PI17/00719 from ISCIIIFEDER. AGT was supported by a Fellowship from the NHMRC (Australia; 1042600. KBT acknowledges funding supports from the Maurice Wilkins Centre for Biodiscovery, Cancer Society of New Zealand, Health Research Council, Gut Cancer Foundation, and the University of Auckland. CY acknowledges support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number 81773552) and the Chinese NSFC International Cooperation and Exchange Program (grant number 71661167007)., "Peer Reviewed"

Published
2019

16. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Roth, Gregory A., Collaborotors, G. B. D.Causes Death, Abate, Degu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abay, Solomon M., Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Allah, Load, Abdela, Jemal, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abebe, Haftom Temesgen, Abebe, Molla, Abebe, Zegeye, Abejie, Ayenew Negesse, Abera, Semaw F., Abil, Olifan Zewdie, Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Abrham, Aklilu Roba, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou, Acharya, Dilaram, Adamu, Abdu A., Adebayo, Oladimeji, Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji, Adekanmbi, Victor, Adookunboh, Olatunii, Adhena, Beyene Meressa, Adib, Mina G., Admasie, Aniha, Afshin, Ashkan, Agarwal, Gina, Agesa, Karelia M., Agrawal, Anurag, Agrawal, Sutapa, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadi, Melidi, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Ahmed, Sayent, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Fddine, Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil, Akinyeniti, Rufus Olusola, Akseer, Nadia, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M., Alandab, Fares, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Tahiya, Alebel, Animut, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, Francois, Allebeck, Peter, Alonso, Jordi, Altirkawi, Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T., Aminde, Leopold N., Amini, Erfan, Ammar, Walid, Amoako, Yaw Ampern, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Animut, Megbaru Debalkie, Anjomshoa, Mina, Ansari, Hossein, Aniha, Mustafa Geleto, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Anwari, Palwasha, Aremu, Olatunde, Arnlov, Johan, Arora, Amit, Arora, Monika, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna K., Asayesh, Hamid, Asfaw, Ephremi Tsegay, Ataro, Zerihun, Atique, Suleman, Atre, Sachin R., Ausloos, Marcel, Avokpaho, Euripide F. G. A., Awasthi, Ashish, Quintattilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala, Ayele, Yohanes, Ayer, Rakesh, Azzopardi, Peter S., Babazadeh, Arefeh, Bacha, Umar, Badali, Hamid, Badawi, Alaa, Bali, Ayele Geleto, Ballesteros, Katherine E., Banach, Maciej, Banerjee, Kajori, Bannick, Marlena S., Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar, Barboza, Miguel A., Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyu, Barnighausen, Till Winfried, Barquera, Simon, Barrero, Lope, Bassat, Quique, Base, Sanjay, Baune, Bernhard T., Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw, Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Beth, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Behzadifar, Masoud, Behzadifar, Mcysam, Bejot, Yannick, Bekele, Bayu Begashaw, Belacliew, Abate Bekele, Belay, Ezra, Belay, Yihalem Abebe, Bell, Michelle L., Bello, Aminu K., Bennett, Derrick A., Bensenor, Isabela M., Berman, Adam F., Bernabe, Eduardo, Bernstein, Robert S., Bertolacci, Gregory J., Beuran, Mircea, Beyranvand, Tina, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhattarai, Suraj, Bhaumik, Sounayadeeep, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Biadgo, Belete, Biehl, Molly H., Bijani, Ali, Bikbov, Boris, Bilano, Ver, Bililign, Nigus, Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shandaat, Bisanzio, Donal, Biswas, Tuhin, Blacker, Brigitte F., Basara, Berrak Bora, Borschmann, Rohan, Bosetti, Cristina, Bozorgmehr, Kayvan, Brady, Oliver J., Brant, Luisa C., Brayne, Carol, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J. K., Brenner, Hermann, Briant, Paul Svitil, Britton, Gabrielle, Brugha, Traolach, Busse, Reinhard, Butt, Zahid A., Callender, Charlton S. K. H., Campos-Nonato, Ismael R., Rincon, Julio Cesar Canapuzano, Cano, Jorge, Car, Mate, Cardenas, Rosario, Carreras, Giulia, Carrero, Juan J., Carter, Austin, Carvalho, Felix, Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo, Castle, Chris D., Castro, Clara, Castro, Franz, Catala-Lopez, Ferran, Cerin, Ester, Chaiah, Yazan, Chang, Jung -Chen, Chanson, Fiona J., Chaturvedi, Pankaj, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel, Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe, Chitheet, Abdulaal, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christensen, Hanne, Christopher, Devasahayam J., Chiang, Sheng-Chia, Cicuttini, Flavia M., Ciobanu, Liliana G., Cirillo, Massimo, Cohen, Aaron J., Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cortesi, Paolo Angelo, Cortinovis, Monica, Cousin, Ewerton, Cowie, Benjamin C., Criqui, Michael H., Cromwell, Elizabeth A., Crowe, Christopher Stephen, Crump, John A., Cunningham, Matthew, Daba, Alemneh Kabeta, Dadi, Abel Fekadu, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dang, Anh Kim, Dargan, Paul I., Daryani, Ahmad, Das, Siddharth K., Das Gupta, Rajat, Das Neves, Jose, Dasa, Tamirat Tesfaye, Dash, Aditya Prasad, Davis, Adrian C., Weaver, Nicole Davis, Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil, Davletov, Kairat, De La Hoz, Fernando Pio, De Neve, Jan-Walter, Degefa, Meaza Girma, Degenhardt, Louisa, Degfie, Tizta T., Deiparine, Selina, Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam, Demtsu, Baleen Betsu, Denova-Gutierrez, Edgar, Deribe, Kebede, Dervenis, Nikolaos, Jarlais, Don C. Des, Dessie, Getenet Ayalew, Dey, Subhojit, Dhannaratne, Samath D., Dicker, Daniel, Dinberu, Mesfin Tadese, Ding, Eric L., Dirac, M. Ashworth, Djalalinia, Shirin, Dokova, Klara, Ter Doku, David, Donnelly, Christl A., Dorsey, E. Ray, Doshi, Pratik P., Douwes-Schultz, Dirk, Doyle, Kerrie E., Driscoll, Tim R., Dubey, Manisha, Dubljanin, Eleonora, Duken, Eyasu Ejeta, Duncan, Bruce B., Duraes, Andre R., Ebrahimi, Hedyeh, Ebrahimpour, Soheil, Edessa, Dumessa, Edvardsson, David, Eggen, Anne Elise, El Bcheraoui, Charbel, Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed, El-Khatib, Ziad, Elkout, Hajer, Eltinsel, Christian Lycke, Endres, Matthias, Endries, Aman Yesuf, Er, Benjamin, Erskine, Holly E., Eshrati, Babak, Eskandarieh, Sharareh, Esmaeili, Reza, Esteghamati, Alireza, Fakhar, Mahdi, Fakhim, Hamed, Faramarzi, Mahbobeh, Fareed, Mohammad, Farhadi, Farzaneh, Faninha, Carla Sofia E. Sa, Faro, Andre, Farvid, Maryam S., Farzadfar, Farshad, Farzaei, Mohammad Hosein, Feign, Valery L., Feigl, Andrea B., Fentahun, Netsanet, Eereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, Eduarda, Fernandes, Joao C., Ferrari, Alice J., Feyissa, Garumma Tolu, Filip, Irina, Finegold, Samuel, Fischer, Florian, Eitzmaurice, Christina, Foigt, Nataliya A., Foreman, Kyle J., Fornari, Carla, Frank, Tahvi D., Fukumoto, Takeshi, Fuller, John E., Fullman, Nancy, Furst, Thomas, Furtado, Joao M., Futran, Neal D., Gallus, Silvano, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L., Garcia-Gordillo, Miguel A., Gardner, William M., Gebre, Abadi Kahsu, Gebrehiwol, Tsegaye Tewelde, Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay, Gebremichael, Bereket, Gebremichael, Teklu Gebrehiwo, Gelano, Tilayie Feto, Geleijinse, Johanna M., Genova-Maleras, Ricard, Geramo, Yilma Chisha Dea, Gething, Peter W., Gezae, Kebede Embaye, Ghadami, Mohammad Rasoul, Ghadimi, Reza, Falavarjani, Khalil Ghasemi, Ghasemi-Kasman, Maryam, Ghimire, Mamata, Gibney, Katherine B., Gill, Paramjit Singh, Gill, Tiffany K., Gillum, Richard F., Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageed, Giroud, Maurice, Giussani, Giorgia, Goenka, Shifalika, Goldberg, Ellen M., Goli, Srinivas, Gomez-Dantes, Hector, Gona, Philimon N., Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Gorman, Taren M., Goto, Atsushi, Goulart, Alessandra C., Gnedovskaya, Elena V., Grada, Aymara, Grosso, Giuseppe, Gugnani, Hanish Chander, Guimaraes, Andre Luiz Sena, Gun, Nailing, Gupta, Prakash C., Gupta, Rahid, Gupta, Rajenv, Gupta, Tanush, Gutierrez, Reyna Alma, Gyawali, Bishal, Haagsma, Juanita A., Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hagos, Tekleberhan B., Hailegiyorgis, Tewodros Tesfa, Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa, Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin, Haj-Mirzaian, Arya, Hamadeh, Randall R., Hamidi, Sinner, Handal, Meads J., Hankey, Graeme J., Harb, Hilda L., Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai, Haro, Josep Maria, Hasan, Mehedi, Hassankhani, Hadi, Hassen, Hamid, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hay, Roderick J., Hay, Simon I., He, Yihua, Hedayatizadeh-Omran, Akbar, Hegazy, Mohamed I., Heibati, Behzad, Heidari, Mohsen, Hendrie, Delia, Henok, Andualem, Henry, Nathaniel J., Herteliu, Claudiu, Heydarpour, Fatemeh, Heydarpour, Pouria, Heydarpour, Sousan, Hibstu, Desalegn Tsegaw, Hoek, Hans W., Hole, Michael K., Red, Enayatollah Homaie, Hoogar, Praveen, Hosgood, H. Dean, Hosseini, Seyed Mostafa, Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi, Hostiuc, Mihaela, Hostiuc, Sorin, Hotez, Peter J., Hoy, Damian C., Hsiao, Thomas, Hu, Guoqing, Huang, John J., Husseini, Abdullatif, Hussen, Mohammedaman Mama, Hutfless, Susan, Idrisov, Bulat, Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen, Iqbal, Usman, Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi, Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter, Islam, Nazrul, Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful, Islami, Farhad, Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Jahangiry, Leila, Jahanmehr, Nader, Jain, Sudhir Kumar, Jakovlievic, Mihajlo, Jalu, Moti Tolera, James, Spencer L., Javanbakht, Mehdi, Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jenkins, Kathy J., Jha, Ravi Prakash, Jha, Vivekanand, Johnson, Catherine O., Johnson, Sarah C., Jonas, Jost B., Joshi, Ankur, Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy, Jungari, Suresh Banayya, Jurisson, Mikk, Kabir, Zubair, Kadel, Rajendra, Kahsay, Amaha, Kalani, Rizwan, Karami, Manoochehr, Matin, Behzad Karami, Karch, Andre, Karema, Corine, Karimi-Sari, Hamidreza, Kasaeian, Amir, Kassa, Dessalegn H., Kassa, Getachew Mullu, Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale, Kassebaum, Nicholas J., Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal, Kaul, Anil, Kazemi, Zhila, Karyani, Ali Kazemi, Kazi, Dhruv Satish, Kefale, Adane Teshome, Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, Kemp, Grant Rodgers, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Keren, Andre, Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khafaei, Behzad, Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif, Khajavi, Alireza, Khalid, Nauman, Khalil, Ibrahim A., Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb, Khan, Muhammad Ali, Khang, Young-Ho, Khater, Mona M., Khoja, Abdullah T., Khosravi, Ardeshir, Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A., Kibret, Getiye D., Kidanemariam, Zelalem Teklemariam, Kiirithio, Daniel N., Kim, Daniel, Kim, Young-Eun, Kim, Yun Jin, Kimokoti, Ruth W., Kinfu, Yohannes, Kisa, Adnan, Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna, Kivimaki, Mika, Knudsen, Ann Kristin Skrindo, Kocarnik, Jonathan M., Kochhar, Sonali, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kolola, Tufa, Kopec, Jacek A., Koul, Parvaiz A., Koyanagi, Ai, Kravchenko, Michael A., Krishan, Kewal, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Bicer, Burcu Kinuk, Kumar, G. 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N., Memish, Ziad A., Mendoza, Walter, Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese, Mengistu, Getnet, Mensah, George A., Mereta, Seid Tiku, Meretoja, Atte, Meretoja, Tuomo J., Meshovic, Tbmislav, Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane, Miazgowski, Bartosz, Miazgowski, Tomasz, Millear, Anoushka I., Miller, Ted R., Katherine, Molly, Petrie, Miller, Mini, G. K., Mirabi, Parvaneh, Mirarefin, Mojde, Mirica, Andreea, Mirrakhimov, Erkin M., Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen, Mitiku, Habtamu, Moazen, Babak, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mohammad, Moslem, Mohammadifard, Noushin, Mohammed, A. 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Kassebaum, Nj, Katikireddi, Sv, Karyani, Ak, Kefale, At, Keiyoro, Pn, Kemp, Gr, Kengne, Ap, Kesavachandran, Cn, Khafaie, Ma, Khalil, Ia, Khan, Ea, Khan, Ma, Khang, Yh, Khater, Mm, Khoja, At, Khosravi, Mh, Kiadaliri, Aa, Kibret, Gd, Kidanemariam, Zt, Kiirithio, Dn, Kim, Ye, Kim, Yj, Kimokoti, Rw, Kivimäki, M, Knudsen, Ak, Kocarnik, Jm, Kopec, Ja, Koul, Pa, Kravchenko, Ma, Kumar, Ga, Kutz, Mj, Kyu, Hh, Lad, Dp, Lad, Sd, Lal, Dk, Lam, Jo, Lami, Fh, Lansingh, Vc, Larson, Hj, Lau, Km, Lazarus, Jv, Lee, Ph, Leshargie, Ct, Lim, Ll, Limenih, Ma, Lopez, Ad, Lotufo, Pa, Macarayan, Erk, Mackay, Mt, Maclachlan, Jh, Maddison, Er, Maghavani, Dp, Malta, Dc, Manda, Al, Mandarano-Filho, Lg, Mansournia, Ma, Mapoma, Cc, Maravilla, Jc, Marks, Gb, Martins-Melo, Fr, März, W, Marzan, Mb, Masci, Jr, Massenburg, Bb, Mathur, Mr, Maulik, Pk, Mcgrath, Jj, Mcmahon, Bj, Mehndiratta, Mm, Mehta, Km, Mekonnen, Tc, Memiah, Ptn, Memish, Za, Mengistu, Dt, Mensah, Ga, Mereta, St, Meretoja, Tj, Mezgebe, Hb, Millear, Ai, Miller, Tr, Miller-Petrie, Mk, Mini, Gk, Mirrakhimov, Em, Misganaw, At, Mohammad, Ka, Mohammed, Ma, Mokdad, Ah, Moreno Velásquez, I, Morrison, Sd, Moschos, Mm, Mousavi, Sm, Muchie, Kf, Mueller, Uo, Mumford, Je, Musa, Ki, Nachega, Jb, Nansseu, Jr, Nascimento, Br, Negoi, Ri, Newton, Crj, Ngalesoni, Fn, Ngunjiri, Jw, Nguyen, Aq, Nguyen, Ht, Nguyen, Lh, Nguyen, Th, Ningrum, Dna, Nirayo, Yl, Nixon, Mr, Norheim, Of, Noubiap, Jj, Nouri, Hr, Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M, Nowroozi, Mr, Odell, Cm, Ogbo, Fa, Oh, Ih, Olagunju, At, Olivares, Pr, Olsen, He, Olusanya, Bo, Olusanya, Jo, Ong, Kl, Ong, Sk, Orpana, Hm, Ortiz, Jr, Øverland, S, Owolabi, Mo, Özdemir, R, P A, M, Pakhare, Ap, Pakpour, Ah, Pandian, Jd, Park, Ek, Parry, Cdh, Patton, Gc, Paturi, Vr, Paulson, Kr, Pereira, Dm, Phillips, Mr, Piel, Fb, Pigott, Dm, Pillay, Jd, Postma, Mj, Purcell, Ca, Quistberg, Da, Rade, Kw, Radfar, A, Rafay, A, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rahman, Mhu, Rahman, Ma, Rai, Rk, Ranabhat, Cl, Rao, Pc, Rawaf, Dl, Razo-García, C, Reiner, Rc, Reitsma, Mb, Renzaho, Amn, Riahi, Sm, Ribeiro, Alp, Rios-Blancas, Mj, Roba, Kt, Roberts, Nl, Robinson, Sr, Sahraian, Ma, Saldanha, Rf, Sambala, Ez, Samy, Am, Sanchez-Niño, Md, Santomauro, Df, Santos, Jv, Milicevic, Mm, Sao Jose, Bp, Sarker, Ar, Sarmiento-Suárez, R, Sawant, Ar, Schmidt, Mi, Schneider, Ijc, Schöttker, B, Schutte, Ae, Schwebel, Dc, Scott, Jg, Sepanlou, Sg, Serván-Mori, E, Shackelford, Ka, Shaheen, Aa, Shaikh, Ma, Shrime, Mg, Siddiqi, Tj, Sigfusdottir, Id, Silberberg, Dh, Silva, Da, Silva, Jp, Silva, Ntd, Silveira, Dga, Singh, Ja, Singh, Np, Singh, Pk, Sinha, Dn, Sobaih, Bh, Sorensen, Rjd, Soriano, Jb, Soyiri, In, Sposato, La, Sreeramareddy, Ct, Stanaway, Jd, Starodubov, Vi, Stein, Dj, Stewart, Lg, Stokes, Ma, Subart, Ml, Sufiyan, Mb, Sur, Pj, Sykes, Bl, Sylaja, Pn, Sylte, Do, Szoeke, Cei, Tabarés-Seisdedos, R, Tadakamadla, Sk, Tassew, Sg, Tekalign, Tg, Tekle, Mg, Temsah, Mh, Teshale, My, Tessema, Ga, Thankappan, Kr, Thrift, Ag, Thurston, Gd, To, Qg, Torre, Ae, Tortajada-Girbés, M, Tovani-Palone, Mr, Tran, Bx, Tran, Kb, Troeger, Ce, Truelsen, Tc, Truong, Nt, Tsadik, Ag, Tuzcu, Em, Ukwaja, Kn, Undurraga, Ea, Updike, Rl, Uthman, Oa, Uzun, Sb, Valdez, Pr, Vasankari, Tj, Vladimirov, Sk, Vollset, Se, Wagner, Gr, Wallin, Mt, Walson, Jl, Wang, Yp, Wassie, Mm, Weintraub, Rg, Weldegwergs, Kg, Werkneh, Aa, West, Te, Whiteford, Ha, Wilner, Lb, Wolfe, Cda, Wu, Yc, Wyper, Gma, Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Sh, Yan, Ll, Yasin, Yj, Yentür, Gk, Yimer, Em, Yirsaw, Bd, Yoon, Sj, Younis, Mz, Zaman, Sb, Zeleke, Aj, Zenebe, Zm, Zhang, Al, Zuhlke, Lj, and Murray, Cjl.

Subjects
Adult, Male, Adolescent, national age-sex-specific mortality, UNITED-STATES, Global Health, Socioeconomic Factor, Global Burden of Disease, GBD, causes of death, Young Adult, Age Distribution, Life Expectancy, General & Internal Medicine, Cause of Death, PUBLIC-HEALTH PROBLEM, mortality, 282 causes global burden of disease, Sex Distribution, Child, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, BARRIERS, DEMENTIA, Medicine (all), Infant, Newborn, Infant, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, Middle Aged, TRENDS, PREVENTION, PREVALENCE, ALZHEIMERS-DISEASE, INDIVIDUALS, 3121 General medicine, internal medicine and other clinical medicine, Child, Preschool, REGISTRATION, Female, Human medicine, Human
Abstract

Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODErn), to generate cause fractions and cause specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NC Ds) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72.5-74.1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 186% (17.9-19.6), and injuries 8.0% (7.7-8.2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22.7% (21.5-23.9), representing an additional 7.61 million (7. 20-8.01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7.9% (7.08.8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 222% (20.0-24.0) and the death rate by 31.8% (30.1-33.3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2.3% (0-5-4-0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13.7% (12.2-15.1) to 57.9 deaths (55.9-59.2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118.0% (88.8-148.6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36.4% (32.2-40.6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33.6% (31.2-36.1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respirator}, infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990 neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Published
2018

17. Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Murray, Christopher J L, Callender, Charlton S K H, Kulikoff, Xie Rachel, Srinivasan, Vinay, Abate, Degu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abay, Solomon M, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abdela, Jemal, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdel-Rahman, Omar, Abdi, Alireza, Abdoli, Nasrin, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abebe, Haftom Temesgen, Abebe, Molla, Abebe, Zegeye, Abebo, Teshome Abuka, Abejie, Ayenew Negesse, Aboyans, Victor, Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Abreu, Daisy Maria Xavier, Abrham, Aklilu Roba, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E, Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou, Acharya, Pawan, Adamu, Abdu A, Adebayo, Oladimeji M, Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi, Adekanmbi, Victor, Adetokunboh, Olatunji O, Adhena, Beyene Meressa, Adhikari, Tara Ballav, Adib, Mina G, Adou, Arsène Kouablan, Adsuar, Jose C, Afarideh, Mohsen, Afshin, Ashkan, Agarwal, Gina, Agesa, Kareha M, Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi, Agrawal, Sutapa, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadi, Mehdi, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Ahmed, Sayem, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Akanda, Ali S, Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil, Akibu, Mohammed, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akinyemiju, Tomi, Akseer, Nadia, Alahdab, Fares, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alebel, Animut, Aleman, Alicia V, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Ali, Raghib, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Almasi, Ali, Alonso, Jordi, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M, Alsharif, Ubai, Altirkawi, Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Ammar, Walid, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Animut, Megbaru Debalkie, Ansari, Hossein, Ansha, Mustafa Geleto, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw, Aremu, Olatunde, Areri, Habtamu Abera, Arian, Nicholas, Ärnlöv, Johan, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna K, Asayesh, Hamid, Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay, Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal, Assadi, Reza, Atey, Tesfay Mehari Mehari, Atique, Suleman, Atteraya, 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Subjects
Adult, Male, Population Density, GBD, population, fertility, Adolescent, Medicine (all), Infant, Newborn, Infant, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, Middle Aged, Global Health, Global Burden of Disease, Young Adult, Child, Preschool, General & Internal Medicine, Female, Human medicine, Mortality, Child, Population Growth, Birth Rate, Aged, Human, Maternal Age
Abstract

Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-cotnponent method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46.4-52.0). The TFR decreased from 4.7 livebirths (4.5-4.9) to 2.4 livebirths (2.2-2.5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83.8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197-2% (193.3-200.8) since 1950, from 2.6 billion (2.5-2.6) to 7.6 billion (7.4-7.9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2.0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1.1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2.5% in 1963 to O7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2.7%. The global average age increased from 26.6 years in 1950 to 32.1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59.9% to 65.3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1.0 livebirths (95% UI 0. 9-1.2) in Cyprus to a high of 7.1 livebirths (6.8-7.4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0.08 livebirths (0.07-0.09) in South Korea to 2.4 livebirths (2.2-2.6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (I F030; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0.3 livebirths (0.3-0-4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3.1 livebirths (3.0-3.2) in Niger. TF030 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017.33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2.0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Published
2018

18. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author

Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbas, Kaja M, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abdulle, Abdishakur M, Abebo, Teshome Abuka, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Aboyans, Victor, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Ackerman, Ilana N, Adedeji, Isaac A, Adetokunboh, Olatunji, Afshin, Ashkan, Aggarwal, Rakesh, Agrawal, Sutapa, Agrawal, Anurag, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aiyar, Sneha, Akinyemiju, Tomi F, Akseer, Nadia, Al Lami, Faris Hasan, Alahdab, Fares, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Noore, Alam, Tahiya, Alasfoor, Deena, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Ali, Raghib, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Alkaabi, Juma M, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Christine, Al-Maskari, Fatma, AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa, Alsharif, Ubai, Alsowaidi, Shirina, Althouse, Benjamin M, Altirkawi, Khalid A, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amini, Erfan, Ammar, Walid, Amoako, Yaw Ampem, Ansha, Mustafa Geleto, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Ärnlöv, Johan, Arora, Megha, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna Kumar, Asgedom, Solomon W, Atey, Tesfay Mehari, Atnafu, Niguse Tadele, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur, Awasthi, Ashish, Awasthi, Shally, Azarpazhooh, Mahmoud Reza, Azzopardi, Peter, Babalola, Tesleem Kayode, Bacha, Umar, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Bannick, Marlena S, Barac, Aleksandra, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Bärnighausen, Till, Barquera, Simon, Barrero, Lope H, Basu, Sanjay, Battista, Robert, Battle, Katherine E, Baune, Bernhard T, Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Béjot, Yannick, Bekele, Bayu Begashaw, Bell, Michelle L, Bennett, Derrick A, Bennett, James R, Bensenor, Isabela M, Benson, Jennifer, Berhane, Adugnaw, Berhe, Derbew Fikadu, Bernabé, Eduardo, Betsu, Balem Demtsu, Beuran, Mircea, Beyene, Addisu Shunu, Bhansali, Anil, Bhatt, Samir, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Biadgilign, Sibhatu, Bicer, Burcu Kucuk, Bienhoff, Kelly, Bikbov, Boris, Birungi, Charles, Biryukov, Stan, Bisanzio, Donal, Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie, Blyth, Fiona M, Boneya, Dube Jara, Bose, Dipan, Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R, Bourne, Rupert R A, Brainin, Michael, Brayne, Carol, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J K, Briant, Paul S, Britton, Gabrielle, Brugha, Traolach S, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Bulto, Lemma Negesa Bulto, Bumgarner, Blair R, Butt, Zahid A, Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero, Cameron, Ewan, Campos-Nonato, Ismael Ricardo, Carabin, Hélène, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carpenter, David O, Carrero, Juan Jesus, Carter, Austin, Carvalho, Felix, Casey, Daniel, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Castle, Chris D, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Chang, Jung-Chen, Charlson, Fiona J, Chaturvedi, Pankaj, Chen, Honglei, Chibalabala, Mirriam, Chibueze, Chioma Ezinne, Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe, Chitheer, Abdulaal A, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas, Ciobanu, Liliana G, Cirillo, Massimo, Colombara, Danny, Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cooper, Cyrus, Cortesi, Paolo Angelo, Cortinovis, Monica, Criqui, Michael H, Cromwell, Elizabeth A, Cross, Marita, Crump, John A, Dadi, Abel Fekadu, Dalal, Koustuv, Damasceno, Albertino, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, das Neves, José, Davitoiu, Dragos V, Davletov, Kairat, de Courten, Barbora, De Leo, Diego, De Steur, Hans, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Degenhardt, Louisa, Deiparine, Selina, Dellavalle, Robert P, Deribe, Kebede, Deribew, Amare, Des Jarlais, Don C, Dey, Subhojit, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dhillon, Preet K, Dicker, Daniel, Djalainia, Shirin, Do, Huyen Phuc, Dokova, Klara, Doku, David Teye, Dorsey, E Ray, dos Santos, Kadine Priscila Bender, Driscoll, Tim R, Dubey, Manisha, Duncan, Bruce Bartholow, Ebel, Beth E, Echko, Michelle, El-Khatib, Ziad Ziad, Enayati, Ahmadali, Endries, Aman Yesuf, Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich, Erskine, Holly E, Eshetie, Setegn, Eshrati, Babak, Esteghamati, Alireza, Estep, Kara, Fanuel, Fanuel Belayneh Bekele, Farag, Tamer, Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sa, Faro, André, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fazeli, Mir Sohail, Feigin, Valery L, Feigl, Andrea B, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, João C, Ferrari, Alize J, Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa, Filip, Irina, Fischer, Florian, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Flaxman, Abraham D, Foigt, Nataliya, Foreman, Kyle J, Franklin, Richard C, Frostad, Joseph J, Fullman, Nancy, Fürst, Thomas, Furtado, Joao M, Futran, Neal D, Gakidou, Emmanuela, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L, Gebre, Teshome, Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe, Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Geleto, Ayele, Gemechu, Bikila Lencha, Gesesew, Hailay Abrha, Gething, Peter W, Ghajar, Alireza, Gibney, Katherine B, Gillum, Richard F, Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed, Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo, Giussani, Giorgia, Godwin, William W, Goel, Kashish, Goenka, Shifalika, Goldberg, Ellen M, Gona, Philimon N, Goodridge, Amador, Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Gosselin, Richard A, Gotay, Carolyn C, Goto, Atsushi, Goulart, Alessandra Carvalho, Graetz, Nicholas, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Prakash C, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Tanush, Gupta, Vipin, Gupta, Rahul, Gutiérrez, Reyna A, Hachinski, Vladimir, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hailu, Alemayehu Desalegne, Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hamidi, Samer, Hammami, Mouhanad, Handal, Alexis J, Hankey, Graeme J, Hao, Yuantao, Harb, Hilda L, Hareri, Habtamu Abera, Haro, Josep Maria, Harun, Kimani M, Harvey, James, Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hay, Simon I, Hay, Roderick J, Hedayati, Mohammad T, Hendrie, Delia, Henry, Nathaniel J, Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz, Heydarpour, Pouria, Hoek, Hans W, Hoffman, Howard J, Horino, Masako, Horita, Nobuyuki, Hosgood, H Dean, Hostiuc, Sorin, Hotez, Peter J, Hoy, Damian G, Htet, Aung Soe, Hu, Guoqing, Huang, John J, Huynh, Chantal, Iburg, Kim Moesgaard, Igumbor, Ehimario Uche, Ikeda, Chad, Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter, Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jahanmehr, Nader, Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B, James, Peter, Jassal, Simerjot K, Javanbakht, Mehdi, Jayaraman, Sudha P, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jensen, Paul N, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, John, Denny, Johnson, Catherine O, Johnson, Sarah Charlotte, Jonas, Jost B, Jürisson, Mikk, Kabir, Zubair, Kadel, Rajendra, Kahsay, Amaha, Kamal, Ritul, Kar, Chittaranjan, Karam, Nadim E, Karch, André, Karema, Corine Kakizi, Karimi, Seyed M, Karimkhani, Chante, Kasaeian, Amir, Kassa, Getachew Mullu, Kassaw, Nigussie Assefa, Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Kastor, Anshul, Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, Kemmer, Laura, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Keren, Andre, Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalil, Ibrahim A, Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khang, Young-Ho, Khoja, Abdullah T, Khosravi, Ardeshir, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad, Kieling, Christian, Kim, Yun Jin, Kim, Daniel, Kimokoti, Ruth W, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kisa, Adnan, Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna A, Kissoon, Niranjan, Kivimaki, Mika, Knudsen, Ann Kristin, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kolte, Dhaval, Kopec, Jacek A, Kosen, Soewarta, Kotsakis, Georgios A, Koul, Parvaiz A, Koyanagi, Ai, Kravchenko, Michael, Krohn, Kristopher J, Kumar, G Anil, Kumar, Pushpendra, Kyu, Hmwe H, Lager, Anton Carl Jonas, Lal, Dharmesh Kumar, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lallukka, Tea, Lambert, Nkurunziza, Lan, Qing, Lansingh, Van C, Larsson, Anders, Leasher, Janet L, Lee, Paul H, Leigh, James, Leshargie, Cheru Tesema, Leung, Janni, Leung, Ricky, Levi, Miriam, Li, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, Liang, Xiaofeng, Liben, Misgan Legesse, Lim, Stephen S, Linn, Shai, Liu, Patrick Y, Liu, Angela, Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Lodha, Rakesh, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Looker, Katharine J, Lopez, Alan D, Lorkowski, Stefan, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lozano, Rafael, Lucas, Timothy C D, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan A, Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King, Maddison, Emilie R, Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd, Magdy Abd El Razek, Mohammed, Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos, Mahdavi, Mahdi, Majdan, Marek, Majdzadeh, Reza, Majeed, 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Subjects
Male, Dánarmein, AUSTRALIA, GBD, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), Heilsufar, Lífslíkur, Epidemiology, Life expectancy, Diseases, Global Health, THERAPY, Global Burden of Disease, Residence Characteristics, Fullorðnir, Cause of Death, Medicine and Health Sciences, Psychology, Konur, Aged, 80 and over, Tölfræði, PLASMODIUM-FALCIPARUM, Aldraðir, Sjúkdómar, Medicine (all), Fatlaðir, Men, Þjóðir, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, ASSOCIATION, Middle Aged, Health policy, PREVALENCE, Sálfræði, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), Female, Lýðheilsa, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Global Health Metrics, Adult, AFRICA, Quality of life, People with disabilities, GBD, WEIGHTS, Social ecology, Lífsgæði, Communicable Diseases, World health/statistics, Age Distribution, Life Expectancy, Medicine, General & Internal, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, General & Internal Medicine, Heilbrigðisstefna, Humans, Adults, Disabled Persons, Women, Sex Distribution, Mortality, Noncommunicable Diseases, Aged, Science & Technology, Faraldsfræði, MORTALITY, Wounds and injuries, EPIDEMIOLOGIC TRANSITION, HIV, Áverkar, Karlar, Wounds and Injuries, Félagshagfræði, Older people
Abstract

Correction in: LANCET Volume: 390 Issue: 10106 Pages: E38-E38 Published: OCT 28 2017, Background Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75.2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71.9-78.6) for females and 72.0 years (68.8-75.1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45.6 years [42.0-49.5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41.5 years [39.0-44.0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6.24 years (5.97-6.48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6.04 years (5.74-6.27) for males and 6.49 years (6.08-6.77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1.78 years (1.61-1.93) for males and 1.96 years (1.69-2.13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2.3% [-5.9 to 0.9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16.1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. Interpretation At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support., Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Published
2017

19. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries : an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author

Fullman, Nancy, Barber, Ryan M, Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbas, Kaja M, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abdulle, Abdishakur M, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Aboyans, Victor, De Steur, Hans, Gupta, Vipin, Sposato, Luciano A, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Srinivasan, Vinay, Nguyen, Quyen Le, Stanaway, Jeffrey D, Atre, Sachin R, Kim, Daniel, Criqui, Michael H, Aryal, Krishna Kumar, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Stein, Dan J, Steiner, Caitlyn, Steinke, Sabine, Stokes, Mark Andrew, Strub, Bryan, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Nguyen, Trang Huyen, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale, Dandona, Rakhi, Mantovani, Lorenzo G, Sunguya, Bruno F, Sur, Patrick J, Mazidi, Mohsen, Kimokoti, Ruth W, Swaminathan, Soumya, Sykes, Bryan L, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Sylte, Dillon O, Nguyen, Grant, Schwebel, David C, Szoeke, Cassandra E I, Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana, Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar, Degenhardt, Louisa, McAlinden, Colm, Tandon, Nikhil, Kinfu, Yohannes, Tao, Tianchan, Schwendicke, Falk, Tarekegn, Yihunie L, Giref, Ababi Zergaw, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Taveira, Nuno, Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw, Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa, Alla, François, Seedat, Soraya, Tessema, Gizachew Assefa, Thakur, JS, Alam, Khurshid, Rajsic, Sasa, Nguyen, Minh, Deiparine, Selina, Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman, Thrift, Amanda G, Tiruye, Tenaw Yimer, Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan, Martin, Randall V, Topor-Madry, Roman, Torre, Anna, McGaughey, Madeline, Tortajada, Miguel, Ram, Usha, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Nichols, Emma, Awasthi, Ashish, Fürst, Thomas, Tran, Bach Xuan, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Troeger, Christopher, Deribe, Kebede, Truelsen, Thomas, Tsoi, Derrick, Tuem, Kald Beshir, Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal, McGrath, John J, Tuzcu, Emin Murat, Majeed, Azeem, Tyrovolas, Stefanos, Servan-Mori, Edson E, Ukwaja, Kingsley N, Hammami, Mouhanad, Kisa, 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Hsing-Yi, Shackelford, Katya Anne, Reidy, Patrick, Hareri, Habtamu Abera, Wijeratne, Tissa, Wiysonge, Charles Shey, Woldeyes, Belete Getahun, Wolfe, Charles D A, Woodbrook, Rachel, Xavier, Denis, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Xu, Gelin, Shaheen, Amira, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Reiner, Robert C, Djalalinia, Shirin, Karema, Corine Kakizi, Yadgir, Simon, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh, Yakob, Bereket, Yan, Lijing L, Yano, Yuichiro, Shahraz, Saeid, Nong, Vuong Minh, Yaseri, Mehdi, Musa, Kamarul Imran, Ye, Pengpeng, Yimam, Hassen Hamid, Kopec, Jacek A, Meier, Toni, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Do, Huyen Phuc, Shaikh, Masood Ali, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Butt, Zahid A, Norheim, Ole F, Geleto, Ayele, Yotebieng, Marcel, Bannick, Marlena S, Younis, Mustafa Z, Zaidi, Zoubida, Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed, Breitborde, Nicholas J K, Shamsipour, Mansour, Kosen, Soewarta, Zavala-Arciniega, Luis, Zhang, Xueying, Zipkin, Ben, Reinig, Nikolas, Noubiap, Jean Jacques N, Zodpey, Sanjay, Dokova, Klara, Havmoeller, 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Shamsipour, Mansour, Shamsizadeh, Morteza, Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful, Sharma, Jayendra, Sharma, Rajesh, She, Jun, Shi, Peilin, Shibuya, Kenji, Shields, Chloe, Shiferaw, Mekonnen Sisay, Shigematsu, Mika, Shin, Min-Jeong, Shiri, Rahman, Shirkoohi, Reza, Shishani, Kawkab, Shoman, Haitham, Shrime, Mark G., Silberberg, Donald H., Silva, Diego Augusto Santo, Silva, João Pedro, Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alve, Singh, Jasvinder A., Singh, Virendra, Sinha, Dhirendra Narain, Skiadaresi, Eirini, Slepak, Erica Leigh, Sligar, Amber, Smith, Alison, Smith, David L., Smith, Mari, Sobaih, Badr H.A., Sobngwi, Eugene, Soljak, Michael, Soneji, Samir, Sorensen, Reed J.D., Sposato, Luciano A., Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T., Srinivasan, Vinay, Stanaway, Jeffrey D., Stein, Dan J., Steiner, Caitlyn, Steinke, Sabine, Stokes, Mark Andrew, Strub, Bryan, Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Sunguya, Bruno F., Sur, Patrick J., Swaminathan, Soumya, Sykes, Bryan L., Sylte, Dillon O., Szoeke, Cassandra E.I., Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael, Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar, Tandon, Nikhil, Tao, Tianchan, Tarekegn, Yihunie L., Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Taveira, Nuno, Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw, Shifa, Girma Temam, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Tessema, Gizachew Assefa, Thakur, J.S., Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman, Thrift, Amanda G., Tiruye, Tenaw Yimer, Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan, Topor-Madry, Roman, Torre, Anna, Tortajada, Miguel, Tran, Bach Xuan, Troeger, Christopher, Truelsen, Thoma, Tsoi, Derrick, Tuem, Kald Beshir, Tuzcu, Emin Murat, Tyrovolas, Stefano, Ukwaja, Kingsley N., Uneke, Chigozie Jesse, Updike, Rachel, Uthman, Olalekan A., Van Boven, Job F.M., Van Donkelaar, Aaron, Varughese, Santosh, Vasankari, Tommi, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Vidavalur, Ramesh, Violante, Francesco S., Vladimirov, Sergey K., Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Vos, Theo, Wadilo, Fiseha, Wakayo, Tolassa, Wallin, Mitchell T., Wang, Yuan-Pang, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G., Weiss, Daniel J., Werdecker, Andrea, Westerman, Ronny, Whiteford, Harvey A., Wijeratne, Tissa, Wiysonge, Charles Shey, Woldeyes, Belete Getahun, Wolfe, Charles D.A., Woodbrook, Rachel, Xavier, Deni, Xu, Gelin, Yadgir, Simon, Yakob, Bereket, Yan, Lijing L., Yano, Yuichiro, Yaseri, Mehdi, Ye, Pengpeng, Yimam, Hassen Hamid, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Yotebieng, Marcel, Younis, Mustafa Z., Zaidi, Zoubida, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zavala-Arciniega, Lui, Zhang, Xueying, Zipkin, Ben, Zodpey, Sanjay, Lim, Stephen S., Murray, Christopher J.L., Fullman, N, Barber, R, Abajobir, A, Abate, K, Abbafati, C, Abbas, K, Abd-Allah, F, Abdulle, A, Abera, S, Aboyans, V, Abu-Raddad, L, Abu-Rmeileh, N, Adedeji, I, Adetokunboh, O, Afshin, A, Agrawal, A, Agrawal, S, Kiadaliri, A, Ahmadieh, H, Ahmed, M, Aichour, A, Aichour, I, Aichour, M, Aiyar, S, Akinyemi, R, Akseer, N, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alam, N, Alasfoor, D, Alene, K, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Allen, C, Al-Raddadi, R, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, A, Amini, E, Ammar, W, Antonio, C, Ansari, H, Anwari, P, Arora, M, Artaman, A, Aryal, K, Asayesh, H, Asgedom, S, Assadi, R, Atey, T, Atre, S, Avila-Burgos, L, Arthur Avokpaho, E, Awasthi, A, Azzopardi, P, Bacha, U, Badawi, A, Balakrishnan, K, Bannick, M, Barac, A, Barker-Collo, S, Bärnighausen, T, Barrero, L, Basu, S, Battle, K, Baune, B, Beardsley, J, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Béjot, Y, Bell, M, Bennett, D, Bennett, J, Bensenor, I, Berhane, A, Berhe, D, Bernabé, E, Betsu, B, Beuran, M, Beyene, A, Bhala, N, Bhansali, A, Bhatt, S, Bhutta, Z, Bikbov, B, Bilal, A, Birungi, C, Biryukov, S, Bizuayehu, H, Blosser, C, Boneya, D, Bose, D, Bou-Orm, I, Brauer, M, Breitborde, N, Brugha, T, Bulto, L, Butt, Z, Cahuana-Hurtado, L, Cameron, E, Campuzano, J, Carabin, H, Cárdenas, R, Carrero, J, Carter, A, Casey, D, Castañeda-Orjuela, C, Rivas, J, Castro, R, Catalá-López, F, Cercy, K, Chang, H, Chang, J, Charlson, F, Chew, A, Chisumpa, V, Chitheer, A, Christensen, H, Christopher, D, Cirillo, M, Cooper, C, Criqui, M, Cromwell, E, Crump, J, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dargan, P, Das Neves, J, Davitoiu, D, De Courten, B, De Steur, H, Degenhardt, L, Deiparine, S, Deribe, K, Deveber, G, Ding, E, Djalalinia, S, Do, H, Dokova, K, Doku, D, Dorsey, E, Driscoll, T, Dubey, M, Duncan, B, Ebel, B, Ebrahimi, H, El-Khatib, Z, Enayati, A, Endries, A, Ermakov, S, Erskine, H, Eshrati, B, Eskandarieh, S, Esteghamati, A, Estep, K, Faraon, E, Sofia E Sa Farinha, C, Faro, A, Farzadfar, F, Fazeli, M, Feigin, V, Feigl, A, Fereshtehnejad, S, Fernandes, J, Ferrari, A, Feyissa, T, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fitzmaurice, C, Flaxman, A, Foigt, N, Foreman, K, Frank, T, Franklin, R, Friedman, J, Frostad, J, Fürst, T, Furtado, J, Gakidou, E, Garcia-Basteiro, A, Gebrehiwot, T, Geleijnse, J, Geleto, A, Gemechu, B, Gething, P, Gibney, K, Gill, P, Gillum, R, Giref, A, Gishu, M, Giussani, G, Glenn, S, Godwin, W, Goldberg, E, Gona, P, Goodridge, A, Gopalani, S, Goryakin, Y, Griswold, M, Gugnani, H, Gupta, R, Gupta, T, Gupta, V, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Bidgoli, H, Hailu, G, Hamadeh, R, Hammami, M, Hankey, G, Harb, H, Hareri, H, Hassanvand, M, Havmoeller, R, Hawley, C, Hay, S, He, J, Hendrie, D, Henry, N, Heredia-Pi, I, Hoek, H, Holmberg, M, Horita, N, Hosgood, H, Hostiuc, S, Hoy, D, Hsairi, M, Htet, A, Huang, H, Huang, J, Huynh, C, Iburg, K, Ikeda, C, Inoue, M, Irvine, C, Jacobsen, K, Jahanmehr, N, Jakovljevic, M, Jauregui, A, Javanbakht, M, Jeemon, P, Jha, V, John, D, Johnson, C, Johnson, S, Jonas, J, Jürisson, M, Kabir, Z, Kadel, R, Kahsay, A, Kamal, R, Karch, A, Karema, C, Kasaeian, A, Kassebaum, N, Kastor, A, Katikireddi, S, Kawakami, N, Keiyoro, P, Kelbore, S, Kemmer, L, Kengne, A, Kesavachandran, C, Khader, Y, Khalil, I, Khan, E, Khang, Y, Khosravi, A, Khubchandani, J, Kieling, C, Kim, D, Kim, J, Kim, Y, Kimokoti, R, Kinfu, Y, Kisa, A, Kissimova-Skarbek, K, Kivimaki, M, Kokubo, Y, Kopec, J, Kosen, S, Koul, P, Koyanagi, A, Kravchenko, M, Krohn, K, Defo, B, Bicer, B, Kulikoff, X, Kumar, G, Kutz, M, Kyu, H, Lal, D, Lalloo, R, Lansingh, V, Larsson, A, Lazarus, J, Lee, P, Leigh, J, Leung, J, Leung, R, Levi, M, Li, Y, Liben, M, Linn, S, Liu, P, Liu, S, Lodha, R, Looker, K, Lopez, A, Lorkowski, S, Lotufo, P, Lozano, R, Lucas, T, Lunevicius, R, Mackay, M, Maddison, E, El Razek, H, El Razek, M, Majdan, M, Majdzadeh, R, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malhotra, R, Malta, D, Mamun, A, Manguerra, H, Mantovani, L, Manyazewal, T, Mapoma, C, Marks, G, Martin, R, Martinez-Raga, J, Martins-Melo, F, Martopullo, I, Mathur, M, Mazidi, M, Mcalinden, C, Mcgaughey, M, Mcgrath, J, Mckee, M, Mehata, S, Mehndiratta, M, Meier, T, Meles, K, Memish, Z, Mendoza, W, Mengesha, M, Mengistie, M, Mensah, G, Mensink, G, Mereta, S, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, T, Mezgebe, H, Micha, R, Millear, A, Miller, T, Minnig, S, Mirarefin, M, Mirrakhimov, E, Misganaw, A, Mishra, S, Mitchell, P, Mohammad, K, Mohammed, K, Mohammed, S, Mohan, M, Mokdad, A, Mollenkopf, S, Monasta, L, Hernandez, J, Montico, M, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moraga, P, Morawska, L, Morrison, S, Moses, M, Mountjoy-Venning, C, Mueller, U, Muller, K, Murthy, G, Musa, K, Naghavi, M, Naheed, A, Naidoo, K, Nangia, V, Natarajan, G, Negoi, I, Negoi, R, Nguyen, C, Nguyen, G, Nguyen, M, Nguyen, Q, Nguyen, T, Nichols, E, Ningrum, D, Nomura, M, Nong, V, Norheim, O, Noubiap, J, Obermeyer, C, Ogbo, F, Oh, I, Oladimeji, O, Olagunju, A, Olagunju, T, Olivares, P, Olsen, H, Olusanya, B, Olusanya, J, Ong, K, Oren, E, Ortiz, A, Owolabi, M, Mahesh, P, Pana, A, Panda, B, Panda-Jonas, S, Papachristou, C, Park, E, Patton, G, Paulson, K, Pereira, D, Perico, D, Pesudovs, K, Petzold, M, Phillips, M, Pigott, D, Pillay, J, Pinho, C, Piradov, M, Pishgar, F, Poulton, R, Pourmalek, F, Qorbani, M, Radfar, A, Rafay, A, Rao, P, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, M, Ur Rahman, M, Rai, R, Rajsic, S, Ram, U, Ranabhat, C, Rawaf, S, Reidy, P, Reiner, R, Reinig, N, Reitsma, M, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, A, Resnikoff, S, Rezaei, S, Blancas, M, Roba, K, Rojas-Rueda, D, Rokni, M, Roshandel, G, Roth, G, Roy, A, Rubagotti, E, Sadat, N, Safdarian, M, Safi, S, Safiri, S, Sagar, R, Salama, J, Salomon, J, Samy, A, Sanabria, J, Santomauro, D, Santos, I, Santos, J, Santric Milicevic, M, Sartorius, B, Satpathy, M, Sawhney, M, Saxena, S, Saylan, M, Shirude, S, Schmidt, M, Schneider, I, Schneider, M, Schöttker, B, Schutte, A, Schwebel, D, Schwendicke, F, Seedat, S, Sepanlou, S, Servan-Mori, E, Shackelford, K, Shaheen, A, Shahraz, S, Shaikh, M, Shamsipour, M, Shamsizadeh, M, Islam, S, Sharma, J, Sharma, R, She, J, Shi, P, Shibuya, K, Shields, C, Shiferaw, M, Shigematsu, M, Shin, M, Shiri, R, Shirkoohi, R, Shishani, K, Shoman, H, Shrime, M, Silberberg, D, Silva, D, Silva, J, Silveira, D, Singh, J, Singh, V, Sinha, D, Skiadaresi, E, Slepak, E, Sligar, A, Smith, A, Smith, D, Smith, M, Sobaih, B, Sobngwi, E, Soljak, M, Soneji, S, Sorensen, R, Sposato, L, Sreeramareddy, C, Srinivasan, V, Stanaway, J, Stein, D, Steiner, C, Steinke, S, Stokes, M, Strub, B, Sufiyan, M, Abdulkader, R, Sunguya, B, Sur, P, Swaminathan, S, Sykes, B, Sylte, D, Szoeke, C, Tabarés-Seisdedos, R, Tadakamadla, S, Tandon, N, Tao, T, Tarekegn, Y, Tavakkoli, M, Taveira, N, Tegegne, T, Shifa, G, Terkawi, A, Tessema, G, Thakur, J, Thankappan, K, Thrift, A, Tiruye, T, Tobe-Gai, R, Topor-Madry, R, Torre, A, Tortajada, M, Tran, B, Troeger, C, Truelsen, T, Tsoi, D, Tuem, K, Tuzcu, E, Tyrovolas, S, Ukwaja, K, Uneke, C, Updike, R, Uthman, O, Van Boven, J, Van Donkelaar, A, Varughese, S, Vasankari, T, Venketasubramanian, N, Vidavalur, R, Violante, F, Vladimirov, S, Vlassov, V, Vollset, S, Vos, T, Wadilo, F, Wakayo, T, Wallin, M, Wang, Y, Weichenthal, S, Weiderpass, E, Weintraub, R, Weiss, D, Werdecker, A, Westerman, R, Whiteford, H, Wijeratne, T, Wiysonge, C, Woldeyes, B, Wolfe, C, Woodbrook, R, Xavier, D, Xu, G, Yadgir, S, Yakob, B, Yan, L, Yano, Y, Yaseri, M, Ye, P, Yimam, H, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yoon, S, Yotebieng, M, Younis, M, Zaidi, Z, El Sayed Zaki, M, Zavala-Arciniega, L, Zhang, X, Zipkin, B, Zodpey, S, Lim, S, and Murray, C

Subjects
Adult, Male, Adolescent, DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, Global Health, projection indicators to 2030, CHINA, Global Burden of Disease, Health Statu, MEXICO, Noncommunicable Disease, Young Adult, SYSTEMS, Quality-Adjusted Life Year, General & Internal Medicine, Infant Mortality, Medicine and Health Sciences, Conservation of Natural Resource, gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs,annualized rates of change, projection indicators to 2030, Health Status Indicator, annualized rates of change, Child, Medicine (all), MORTALITY, Infant, Newborn, Infant, Child Abuse, Sexual, Middle Aged, PREPAID PRIVATE, CARE, COVERAGE, Sex Offense, Child, Preschool, Female, 40-PERCENT, GOVERNMENT, gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs, Human
Abstract

Background The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97.5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56.7 (IQR 31.9-66.8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86.8, 95% uncertainty interval 84.6-88.9), Iceland (86.0, 84.1-87.6), and Sweden (85.6, 81.8-87.8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10.9, 9.6-11.9), the Central African Republic (11.0, 8.8-13.8), and Somalia (11.3, 9.5-13.1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Copyright The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license.

Published
2017

20. Global, regional, and national deaths, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years, and years lived with disability for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Author

Soriano, Joan B., Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Agrawal, Anurag, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Noore, Alkaabi, Juma M., Al-Maskari, Fatma, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amberbir, Alemayehu, Amoako, Yaw Ampem, Ansha, Mustafa Geleto, Anto, Josep M., Asayesh, Hamid, Atey, Tesfay Mehari, Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G. Arthur, Barac, Aleksandra, Basu, Sanjay, Bedi, Neeraj, Bensenor, Isabela M., Berhane, Adugnaw, Beyene, Addisu Shunu, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Biryukov, Stan, Boneya, Dube Jara, Brauer, Michael, Carpenter, David O., Casey, Daniel, Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dharmaratne, Samath D., Huyen Phuc Do, Huyen Phuc Do, Fischer, Florian, Geleto, Ayele, Ghoshal, Aloke Gopal, Gillum, Richard F., Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed, Gupta, Vipin, Hay, Simon I., Hedayati, Mohammad T., Horita, Nobuyuki, Hosgood, H. Dean, Jakovljevic, Mihajlo (Michael) B., James, Spencer Lewis, Jonas, Jost B., Kasaeian, Amir, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalil, Ibrahim A., Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khang, Young-Ho, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Knibbs, Luke D., Kosen, Soewarta, Koul, Parvaiz A., Kumar, G. Anil, Leshargie, Cheru Tesema, Liang, Xiaofeng, Abd El Razek, Hassan Magdy, Majeed, Azeem, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Manhertz, Treh, Marquez, Neal, Mehari, Alem, Mensah, George A., Miller, Ted R., Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mohammed, Kedir Endris, Mohammed, Shafiu, Mokdad, Ali H., Naghavi, Mohsen, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Nguyen, Grant, Quyen Le Nguyen, Quyen Le Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini, Vuong Minh Nong, Vuong Minh Nong, Obi, Jennifer Ifeoma, Odeyemi, Yewande E., Ogbo, Felix Akpojene, Oren, Eyal, Mahesh, P. A., Park, Eun-Kee, Patton, George C., Paulson, Katherine, Qorbani, Mostafa, Quansah, Reginald, Rafay, Anwar, Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Rawaf, Salman, Reinig, Nik, Safiri, Saeid, Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo, Sartorius, Benn, Savic, Miloje, Sawhney, Monika, Shigematsu, Mika, Smith, Mari, Tadese, Fentaw, Thurston, George D., Topor-Madry, Roman, Tran, Bach Xuan, Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna, van Boven, Job F. M., Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Wan, Xia, Werdecker, Andrea, Hanson, Sarah Wulf, Yano, Yuichiro, Yimam, Hassen Hamid, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yu, Chuanhua, Zaidi, Zoubida, Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed, Murray, Christopher J. L., and Vos, Theo

Subjects
Adult, Aged, 80 and over, Male, Incidence, Bayes Theorem, Articles, Middle Aged, Global Health, Asthma, Article, Global Burden of Disease, respiratory tract diseases, Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive, Risk Factors, Cause of Death, Prevalence, Humans, Regression Analysis, Female, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Aged
Abstract

Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma are common diseases with a heterogeneous distribution worldwide. Here, we present methods and disease and risk estimates for COPD and asthma from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2015 study. The GBD study provides annual updates on estimates of deaths, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a summary measure of fatal and non-fatal disease outcomes, for over 300 diseases and injuries, for 188 countries from 1990 to the most recent year. Methods We estimated numbers of deaths due to COPD and asthma using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) tool. First, we analysed data from vital registration and verbal autopsy for the aggregate category of all chronic respiratory diseases. Subsequently, models were run for asthma and COPD relying on covariates to predict rates in countries that have incomplete or no vital registration data. Disease estimates for COPD and asthma were based on systematic reviews of published papers, unpublished reports, surveys, and health service encounter data from the USA. We used the Global Initiative of Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease spirometry-based definition as the reference for COPD and a reported diagnosis of asthma with current wheeze as the definition of asthma. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to derive estimates of prevalence and incidence. We estimated population-attributable fractions for risk factors for COPD and asthma from exposure data, relative risks, and a theoretical minimum exposure level. Results were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of income per capita, mean years of education over the age of 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings In 2015, 3.2 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3.1 million to 3.3 million) died from COPD worldwide, an increase of 11.6% (95% UI 5.3 to 19.8) compared with 1990. There was a decrease in age-standardised death rate of 41.9% (37.7 to 45.1) but this was counteracted by population growth and ageing of the global population. From 1990 to 2015, the prevalence of COPD increased by 44.2% (41.7 to 46.6), whereas age-standardised prevalence decreased by 14.7% (13.5 to 15.9). In 2015, 0.40 million people (0.36 million to 0.44 million) died from asthma, a decrease of 26.7% (-7.2 to 43.7) from 1990, and the age-standardised death rate decreased by 58.8% (39.0 to 69.0). The prevalence of asthma increased by 12.6% (9.0 to 16.4), whereas the age-standardised prevalence decreased by 17.7% (15.1 to 19.9). Age-standardised DALY rates due to COPD increased until the middle range of the SDI before reducing sharply. Age-standardised DALY rates due to asthma in both sexes decreased monotonically with rising SDI. The relation between with SDI and DALY rates due to asthma was attributed to variation in years of life lost (YLLs), whereas DALY rates due to COPD varied similarly for YLLs and years lived with disability across the SDI continuum. Smoking and ambient particulate matter were the main risk factors for COPD followed by household air pollution, occupational particulates, ozone, and secondhand smoke. Together, these risks explained 73.3% (95% UI 65.8 to 80.1) of DALYs due to COPD. Smoking and occupational asthmagens were the only risks quantified for asthma in GBD, accounting for 16.5% (14.6 to 18.7) of DALYs due to asthma. Interpretation Asthma was the most prevalent chronic respiratory disease worldwide in 2015, with twice the number of cases of COPD. Deaths from COPD were eight times more common than deaths from asthma. In 2015, COPD caused 2.6% of global DALYs and asthma 1.1% of global DALYs. Although there are laudable international collaborative efforts to make surveys of asthma and COPD more comparable, no consensus exists on case definitions and how to measure disease severity for population health measurements like GBD. Comparisons between countries and over time are important, as much of the chronic respiratory burden is either preventable or treatable with affordable interventions. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

Published
2017

21. Mortality, morbidity, and hospitalisations due to influenza lower respiratory tract infections, 2017: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Troeger C, Blacker B, Khalil I, Zimsen S, Albertson S, Abate D, Abdela J, Adhikari T, Aghayan S, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Aichour A, Aichour I, Aichour M, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Raddadi R, Alahdab F, Alene K, Aljunid S, Alvis-Guzman N, Anber N, Anjomshoa M, Antonio C, Aremu O, Atalay H, Atique S, Attia E, Avokpaho E, Awasthi A, Babazadeh A, Badali H, Badawi A, Banoub J, Barac A, Bassat Q, Bedi N, Belachew A, Bennett D, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta Z, Bijani A, Carvalho F, Castaneda-Orjuela C, Christopher D, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dang A, Daryani A, Degefa M, Demeke F, Dhimal M, Djalalinia S, Doku D, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken E, Edessa D, Zaki M, Fakhim H, Fernandes E, Fischer F, Flor L, Foreman K, Gebremichael T, Geremew D, Ghadiri K, Goulart A, Guo J, Ha G, Hailu G, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamidi S, Hassen H, Hoang C, Horita N, Hostiuc M, Irvani S, Jha R, Jonas J, Kahsay A, Karch A, Kasaeian A, Kassa T, Kefale A, Khader Y, Khan E, Khan G, Khan M, Khang Y, Khoja A, Khubchandani J, Kimokoti R, Kisa A, Knibbs L, Kochhar S, Kosen S, Koul P, Koyanagi A, Defo B, Kumar G, Lal D, Lamichhane P, Leshargie C, Levi M, Li S, Macarayan E, Majdan M, Mehta V, Melese A, Memish Z, Mengistu D, Meretoja T, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski B, Milne G, Milosevic B, Mirrakhimov E, Moazen B, Mohammad K, Mohammed S, Monasta L, Morawska L, Mousavi S, Muhammed O, Murthy S, Mustafa G, Naheed A, Nguyen H, Nguyen N, Nguyen S, Nguyen T, Nisar M, Nixon M, Ogbo F, Olagunju A, Olagunju T, Oren E, Ortiz J, Mahesh P, Pakhale S, Patel S, Paudel D, Pigott D, Postma M, Qorbani M, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rai R, Rezai M, Roberts N, Ronfani L, Rubino S, Safari S, Safiri S, Saleem Z, Sambala E, Samy A, Milicevic M, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Savic M, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Seyedmousavi S, Shaikh M, Sharif M, Sheikh A, Shigematsu M, Smith D, Somayaji R, Soriano J, Sreeramareddy C, Sufiyan M, Temsah M, Tessema B, Teweldemedhin M, Tortajada-Girbes M, Tran B, Tran K, Tsadik A, Ukwaja K, Ullah I, Vasankari T, Vollset S, Vu G, Wada F, Waheed Y, West T, Wiysonge C, Yimer E, Yonemoto N, Zaidi Z, Vos T, Lim S, Murray C, Mokdad A, Hay S, Reiner R, and GBD 2017 Influenza Collaborators

Subjects
PNEUMONIA, AFRICA, Adult, Male, BACTERIAL, Internationality, Adolescent, Respiratory System, CHILDREN, Global Health, Global Burden of Disease, 1117 Public Health and Health Services, Young Adult, Age Distribution, Critical Care Medicine, Risk Factors, General & Internal Medicine, VACCINES, Influenza, Human, GBD 2017 Influenza Collaborators, Humans, Child, Respiratory Tract Infections, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Science & Technology, Incidence, Infant, 1103 Clinical Sciences, Length of Stay, Middle Aged, Hospitalization, Child, Preschool, VACCINATION, Female, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, 1199 Other Medical and Health Sciences
Abstract

Background Although the burden of influenza is often discussed in the context of historical pandemics and the threat of future pandemics, every year a substantial burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) and other respiratory conditions (like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) are attributable to seasonal influenza. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017 is a systematic scientific effort to quantify the health loss associated with a comprehensive set of diseases and disabilities. In this Article, we focus on LRTIs that can be attributed to influenza. Methods We modelled the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality attributable to influenza for every country and selected subnational locations by age and year from 1990 to 2017 as part of GBD 2017. We used a counterfactual approach that first estimated the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality and then attributed a fraction of those outcomes to influenza. Findings Influenza LRTI was responsible for an estimated 145 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99 000-200 000) deaths among all ages in 2017. The influenza LRTI mortality rate was highest among adults older than 70 years (16.4 deaths per 100 000 [95% UI 11.6-21.9]), and the highest rate among all ages was in eastern Europe (5.2 per 100 000 population [95% UI 3.5-7.2]). We estimated that influenza LRTIs accounted for 9 459 000 (95% UI 3 709 000-22 935 000) hospitalisations due to LRTIs and 81 536 000 hospital days (24 330 000-259 851 000). We estimated that 11.5% (95% UI 10.0-12.9) of LRTI episodes were attributable to influenza, corresponding to 54 481 000 (38 465 000-73 864 000) episodes and 8 172 000 severe episodes (5 000 000-13 296 000). Interpretation This comprehensive assessment of the burden of influenza LRTIs shows the substantial annual effect of influenza on global health. Although preparedness planning will be important for potential pandemics, health loss due to seasonal influenza LRTIs should not be overlooked, and vaccine use should be considered. Efforts to improve influenza prevention measures are needed. Copyright (c) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Published
2018

22. Global Mortality From Firearms, 1990-2016

Author

Leticia Avila-Burgos, Mahdi Safdarian, Devina Nand, Tim Driscoll, David C. Schwebel, Andrew T Olagunju, Saeid Safiri, Vasily Vlassov, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Jost B. Jonas, Reyna A Gutiérrez, Delia Hendrie, Fentaw Tadese, Jagdish Khubchandani, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Bach Xuan Tran, Mekonnen Sisay, Amanda J. Mason-Jones, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Tommi Vasankari, Kyle J Foreman, Kristopher J. Krohn, Haftay Berhane Mezgebe, Christian Kieling, Nadia Akseer, Maheswar Satpathy, Reza Assadi, Christopher J L Murray, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Ali Rowhani-Rahbar, Rakhi Dandona, Sudha Jayaraman, Rintaro Mori, Mustafa Z. Younis, Tesfay Mehari Atey, Ashish Awasthi, Amit Arora, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez, Kingsley N. Ukwaja, Alan D. Lopez, Masoud Behzadifar, Ibrahim A Khalil, G Anil Kumar, George C Patton, Nancy Fullman, Nigussie Tadesse Sharew, André Faro, Guoqing Hu, Yousef Khader, Benn Sartorius, Suzanne Barker-Collo, Young-Ho Khang, Rajesh Sagar, Martha Híjar, Florian Fischer, Suliman Alghnam, Michael Kutz, Valery L. Feigin, Raimundas Lunevicius, Suzanne Polinder, Bryan L. Sykes, Van C. Lansingh, Adauto Martins Soares Filho, Mamta Swaroop, Jasvinder A. Singh, Mohsen Asadi-Lari, Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar, Spencer L. James, Alireza Esteghamati, Theo Vos, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Soewarta Kosen, Kerrie E. Doyle, Michael R. Phillips, Amaha Kahsay, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Samath D Dharmaratne, James R. Bennett, Rohan Borschmann, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Joseph S Salama, Salman Rawaf, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Heidi J. Larson, Ted R. Miller, Caitlin Hawley, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Katya Anne Shackelford, Lalit Dandona, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Aman Yesuf Endries, Guilherme Borges, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi, Soraya Seedat, Paul S. F. Yip, Juan Sanabria, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Farshad Pourmalek, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mahfuzar Rahman, Richard Matzopoulos, Richard C. Franklin, Huyen Phuc Do, Mostafa Qorbani, Eric L. Ding, Mark A. Stokes, Rajaa Al-Raddadi, Stephen S Lim, Tung Thanh Tran, Dan J. Stein, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mohsen Naghavi, Vegard Skirbekk, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Walter Mendoza, Arebu Issa Bilal, Pengpeng Ye, Shai Linn, Ali H. Mokdad, Alexandra Brazinova, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon, Ashish Bhalla, Simon I. Hay, Deborah Carvalho Malta, David Teye Doku, Ivy Shiue, Farshad Farzadfar, Shafiu Mohammed, Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Khurshid Alam, Milena M Santric Milicevic, Dumessa Edessa, Quyen Nguyen, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Paul I. Dargan, Reza Malekzadeh, Olatunde Aremu, David Laith Rawaf, Zoubida Zaidi, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Meysam Behzadifar, Josep Maria Haro, Ziad El-Khatib, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Laurie B. Marczak, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Andrea Werdecker, Megha Arora, Neal D. Futran, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Diego De Leo, Faris Lami, Hassan Haghparast Bidgoli, Amir Kasaeian, Peter Memiah, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Till Bärnighausen, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Félix Carvalho, Yun Jin Kim, Global Burden Dis 2016 Injury Col, Universitat de Barcelona, and Public Health

Subjects
Male, Global Health, 01 natural sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Firearm injury, Armas de Fuego, Homicide, Global health, Medicine, 030212 general & internal medicine, Young adult, Child, Aged, 80 and over, Mortality rate, Armes de foc, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, General Medicine, Middle Aged, 16. Peace & justice, Firearm suicide, Suicide, Gun ownership, Child, Preschool, Violencia, Female, Adult, Firearms, Adolescent, Uncertainty interval, Violence, Young Adult, 03 medical and health sciences, Age Distribution, General & Internal Medicine, Mortalitat, Humans, Vital registration, Suicidio, Sex Distribution, 0101 mathematics, Mortality, Aged, business.industry, 010102 general mathematics, Infant, Newborn, Infant, Heridas por Arma de Fuego, Homicidio, Mortalidad, Wounds, Gunshot, Human medicine, business, Demography
Abstract

IMPORTANCE: Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths. EXPOSURES: Firearm ownership and access. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year. RESULTS: Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (-0.2% [95% UI, -0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P

Published
2018

23. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Roth, GA, Abate, D, Abate, KH, Abay, SM, Abbafati, C, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, HT, Abebe, M, Abebe, Z, Abejie, AN, Abera, SF, Abil, OZ, Abraha, HN, Abrham, AR, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Adamu, AA, Adebayo, OM, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adhena, BM, Adib, MG, Admasie, A, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Agesa, KM, Agrawal, A, Agrawal, S, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, MB, Ahmed, S, Aichour, AN, Aichour, I, Aichour, MTE, Akbari, ME, Akinyemi, RO, Akseer, N, Al-Aly, Z, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alahdab, F, Alam, K, Alam, T, Alebel, A, Alene, KA, Alijanzadeh, M, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Aljunid, SM, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Alonso, J, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Aminde, LN, Amini, E, Ammar, W, Amoako, YA, Anber, NH, Andrei, CL, Androudi, S, Animut, MD, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, H, Ansha, MG, Antonio, CAT, Anwari, P, Aremu, O, Arnlov, J, Arora, A, Arora, M, Artaman, A, Aryal, KK, Asayesh, H, Asfaw, ET, Ataro, Z, Atique, S, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayele, Y, Ayer, R, Azzopardi, PS, Babazadeh, A, Bacha, U, Badali, H, and Badawi, A

Subjects
Adult, Aged, 80 and over, Male, Adolescent, Infant, Newborn, Infant, Middle Aged, Global Health, Global Burden of Disease, Young Adult, Life Expectancy, Age Distribution, Socioeconomic Factors, General & Internal Medicine, Cause of Death, Child, Preschool, Humans, Female, Sex Distribution, Child, Aged
Abstract

© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Background: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods: The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings: At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5–74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9–19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7–8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5–23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20–8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0–8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0–24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1–33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5–4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2–15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9–59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000–289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000–363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8–148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2–40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2–36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990—neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases—were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation: Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2018

24. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

James, SL, Abate, D, Abate, KH, Abay, SM, Abbafati, C, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, Z, Abera, SF, Abil, OZ, Abraha, HN, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abu-Rmeileh, NME, Accrombessi, MMK, Acharya, D, Acharya, P, Ackerman, IN, Adamu, AA, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adib, MG, Adsuar, JC, Afanvi, KA, Afarideh, M, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Agesa, KM, Aggarwal, R, Aghayan, SA, Agrawal, S, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, M, Ahmadieh, H, Ahmed, MB, Aichour, AN, Aichour, I, Aichour, MTE, Akinyemiju, T, Akseer, N, Al-Aly, Z, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alahdab, F, Alam, K, Alam, T, Alashi, A, Alavian, SM, Alene, KA, Alijanzadeh, M, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Aljunid, SM, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Alouani, MML, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Aminde, LN, Ammar, W, Amoako, YA, Anber, NH, Andrei, CL, Androudi, S, Animut, MD, Anjomshoa, M, Ansha, MG, Antonio, CAT, Anwari, P, Arabloo, J, Arauz, A, Aremu, O, Ariani, F, Armoon, B, Ärnlöv, J, Arora, A, Artaman, A, Aryal, KK, Asayesh, H, Asghar, RJ, Ataro, Z, Atre, SR, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Ayer, R, Azzopardi, PS, Babazadeh, A, Badali, H, Badawi, A, and Bali, AG

Subjects
Adult, Male, Adolescent, Global Health, Global Burden of Disease, Young Adult, Life Expectancy, Age Distribution, General & Internal Medicine, Prevalence, Humans, Disabled Persons, Sex Distribution, Child, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Incidence, Infant, Newborn, Infant, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, Middle Aged, Socioeconomic Factors, Child, Preschool, Wounds and Injuries, Female, Morbidity
Abstract

Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

Published
2018

25. The global, regional, and national burden of oesophageal cancer and its attributable risk factors in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Fatemeh Ghasemi-kebria, Ana Laura Manda, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Jalal Arabloo, Gholamreza Roshandel, Jonathan M. Kocarnik, Milena Ilic, Abdullah T Khoja, Goura Kishor Rath, Sergey Soshnikov, Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel, Azeem Majeed, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Hai Quang Pham, Keyvan Pakshir, Feng Sha, Tone Bjørge, Antonio Biondi, Simon I. Hay, Ahmad Daryani, Isidora S. Vujcic, Chi Linh Hoang, Yousef Khader, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Priya Rathi, Charvi Jain, Irina Filip, Kevin S Ikuta, Andualem Henok, Mowafa Househ, Eduarda Fernandes, Silvano Gallus, Rufus A. Adedoyin, Akram Pourshams, Mostafa Dianatinasab, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel, Yousef Veisani, Berhe Etsay Tesfay, Félix Carvalho, Catherine Bisignano, Kidanemaryam Berhe, Antonio Maria Borzì, Mesfin Wudu Kassaw, Manu Raj Mathur, Farnam Mohebi, Reza Mohammadpourhodki, Rashmi Gupta, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Bingyu Li, Arash Etemadi, Cristina Bosetti, Giulia Carreras, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Kiana Ramezanzadeh, Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Stephen S Lim, Jiregna Darega Gela, Dinh-Toi Chu, Irfan Ullah, Mohamed M. Gad, Eugenio Traini, Sun Ha Jee, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Mohammad Hassan Emamian, Hassan Abolhassani, Mario Šekerija, Gurudatta Naik, Alireza Rafiei, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Florian Fischer, Mona Pathak, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Clara Castro, Elias Merdassa Roro, Andrew T Olagunju, Salman Rawaf, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Amir Kasaeian, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Anas M. Saad, Mohammad Rabiee, Vahid Alipour, Varshil Mehta, Molly R Nixon, Vera Marisa Costa, Christina Fitzmaurice, Mohsen Naghavi, Ghobad Moradi, Benn Sartorius, Sudeep K Siddappa Malleshappa, Ali Kabir, Saeid Safiri, Deniz Yuce, Abdallah M. Samy, Lorenzo Monasta, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Alaa Badawi, Vesna Zadnik, Abadi Kahsu Gebre, Savita Lasrado, Atalel Fentahun Awedew, Walter Mendoza, Abdulaziz M. Almulhim, Rajan Nikbakhsh, Iffat Elbarazi, Dhirendra N Sinha, Fares Alahdab, Morteza Arab-Zozani, Ali H. Mokdad, Tomi Akinyemiju, Kathleen S Sachiko Berfield, H. Dean Hosgood, Rixing Xu, James D. Harvey, Carlo La Vecchia, Nermin Ghith, Vivek Kumar, Mahaveer Golechha, Mahmood Moosazadeh, Farhad Islami, Catalin-Gabriel Smarandache, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Reza Malekzadeh, Tinuke O Olagunju, Arash Sarveazad, Pawan Faris, Farhad Moradpour, Jasvinder A. Singh, Dariush Nasrollahzadeh, Dhruv Mehta, Nima Rezaei, Haruna Asura Nggada, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Spencer L. James, Amir Radfar, Supreet Kaur, Farahnaz Joukar, Ravi Prakash Jha, Bhaskar Thakur, Ionut Negoi, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Shailesh Advani, Begashaw Melaku Gebresillassie, Prasanna Mithra, Maryam Hashemian, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Navid Rabiee, Shanti Patel, Amir Almasi-Hashiani, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam, Alan D. Lopez, Rovshan Khalilov, Farin Kamangar, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Khanh Bao Tran, Esma Kerboua, Navid Manafi, Andre Pascal Kengne, Giuseppe Gorini, Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei, Bach Xuan Tran, Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Degena Bahrey Tadesse, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Baye Dagnew, David Laith Rawaf, Zoubida Zaidi, Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Jemal Abdu Mohammed, Nahla Anber, Marco Vacante, Delaram Moosavi, Hamidreza Komaki, Reza Shirkoohi, and GBD 2017 Oesophageal Canc Coll

Subjects
Adult, Male, Adolescent, Alcohol Drinking, Esophageal Neoplasms, Population, Adenocarcinoma, Article, Global Burden of Disease, 03 medical and health sciences, Tobacco Use, Young Adult, 0302 clinical medicine, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, Risk Factors, Medicine, Humans, education, Cause of death, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, education.field_of_study, Hepatology, business.industry, Mortality rate, Incidence (epidemiology), Gastroenterology, Cancer, Middle Aged, Overweight, medicine.disease, oesophageal cancer, GBD, risk factors, Verbal autopsy, Diet, Chewing tobacco, 030220 oncology & carcinogenesis, Air Pollution, Indoor, Attributable risk, Carcinoma, Squamous Cell, Gastroesophageal Reflux, 030211 gastroenterology & hepatology, Female, GBD 2017 Oesophageal Cancer Collaborators, Human medicine, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, business, Demography
Abstract

Background Oesophageal cancer is a common and often fatal cancer that has two main histological subtypes: oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma and oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Updated statistics on the incidence and mortality of oesophageal cancer, and on the disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the disease, can assist policy makers in allocating resources for prevention, treatment, and care of oesophageal cancer. We report the latest estimates of these statistics for 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017, by age, sex, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD). Methods We used data from vital registration systems, vital registration-samples, verbal autopsy records, and cancer registries, combined with relevant modelling, to estimate the mortality, incidence, and burden of oesophageal cancer from 1990 to 2017. Mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) were estimated and fed into a Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) including risk factors. MIRs were used for mortality and non-fatal modelling. Estimates of DALYs attributable to the main risk factors of oesophageal cancer available in GBD were also calculated. The proportion of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma to all oesophageal cancers was extracted by use of publicly available data, and its variation was examined against SDI, the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index, and available risk factors in GBD that are specific for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (eg, unimproved water source and indoor air pollution) and for oesophageal adenocarcinoma (gastro-oesophageal reflux disease). Findings There were 473 000 (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 459 000-485 000) new cases of oesophageal cancer and 436 000 (425 000-448 000) deaths due to oesophageal cancer in 2017. Age-standardised incidence was 5.9 (5.7-6.1) per 100 000 population and age-standardised mortality was 5.5 (5.3-5.6) per 100 000. Oesophageal cancer caused 9.78 million (9.53-10.03) DALYs, with an age-standardised rate of 120 (117-123) per 100 000 population. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised incidence decreased by 22.0% (18.6-25.2), mortality decreased by 29.0% (25.8-32.0), and DALYs decreased by 33.4% (30.4-36.1) globally. However, as a result of population growth and ageing, the total number of new cases increased by 52.3% (45.9-58.9), from 310 000 (300 000-322 000) to 473 000 (459 000-485 000); the number of deaths increased by 40.0% (34.1-46.3), from 311 000 (301 000-323 000) to 436 000 (425 000-448 000); and total DALYs increased by 27.4% (22.1-33.1), from 7.68 million (7.42-7.97) to 9.78 million (9.53-10.03). At the national level, China had the highest number of incident cases (235 000 [223 000-246 000]), deaths (213 000 [203 000-223 000]), and DALYs (4.46 million [4.25-4.69]) in 2017. The highest national-level age-standardised incidence rates in 2017 were observed in Malawi (23.0 [19.4-26.5] per 100 000 population) and Mongolia (18.5 [16.4-20.8] per 100 000). In 2017, age-standardised incidence was 2.7 times higher, mortality 2.9 times higher, and DALYs 3.0 times higher in males than in females. In 2017, a substantial proportion of oesophageal cancer DALYs were attributable to known risk factors: tobacco smoking (39.0% [35.5-42.2]), alcohol consumption (33.8% [27.3-39.9]), high BMI (19.5% [6.3-36.0]), a diet low in fruits (19.1% [4.2-34.6]), and use of chewing tobacco (7.5% [5.2-9.6]). Countries with a low SDI and HAQ Index and high levels of indoor air pollution had a higher proportion of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma to all oesophageal cancer cases than did countries with a high SDI and HAQ Index and with low levels of indoor air pollution. Interpretation Despite reductions in age-standardised incidence and mortality rates, oesophageal cancer remains a major cause of cancer mortality and burden across the world. Oesophageal cancer is a highly fatal disease, requiring increased primary prevention efforts and, possibly, screening in some high-risk areas. Substantial variation exists in age-standardised incidence rates across regions and countries, for reasons that are unclear. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Published
2019

26. Global, regional, and national burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author

Nichols, Emma, Szoeke, Cassandra E I, Vollset, Stein Emil, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdela, Jemal, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Akinyemi, Rufus O, Alahdab, Fares, Asgedom, Solomon W, Awasthi, Ashish, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Baune, Bernhard T, Béjot, Yannick, Belachew, Abate B, Bennett, Derrick A., Biadgo, Belete, Bijani, Ali, Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat, Brayne, Carol, Carpenter, David O, Carvalho, Félix, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Cerin, Ester, Choi, Jee-Young J, Dang, Anh Kim, Degefa, Meaza G, Djalalinia, Shirin, Dubey, Manisha, Duken, Eyasu Ejeta, Edvardsson, David, Endres, Matthias, Eskandarieh, Sharareh, Faro, Andre, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, Eduarda, Filip, Irina, Fischer, Florian, Gebre, Abadi K, Geremew, Demeke, Ghasemi-Kasman, Maryam, Gnedovskaya, Elena V., Gupta, Rajeev, Hachinski, Vladimir, Hagos, Tekleberhan B, Hamidi, Samer, Hankey, Graeme J., Haro, Josep M, Hay, Simon I, Irvani, Seyed Sina N, Jha, Ravi P, Jonas, Jost B., Kalani, Rizwan, Karch, André, Kasaeian, Amir, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalil, Ibrahim A, Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khanna, Tripti, Khoja, Tawfik A M, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Kisa, Adnan, Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna, Kivimäki, Mika, Koyanagi, Ai, Krohn, Kristopher J, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lorkowski, Stefan, Majdan, Marek, Malekzadeh, Reza, März, Winfried, Massano, João, Mengistu, Getnet, Meretoja, Atte, Mohammadi, Moslem, Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani, Maryam, Mokdad, Ali H, Mondello, Stefania, Moradi, Ghobad, Nagel, Gabriele, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naik, Gurudatta, Nguyen, Long H, Nguyen, Trang H, Nirayo, Yirga L, Nixon, Molly R, Ofori-Asenso, Richard, Ogbo, Felix A, Olagunju, Andrew T, Owolabi, Mayowa O, Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra, Passos, Valéria M de Azeredo, Pereira, David M., Pinilla-Monsalve, Gabriel D, Piradov, Michael A, Pond, Constance D, Poustchi, Hossein, Qorbani, Mostafa, Radfar, Amir, Reiner, Robert C, Robinson, Stephen R, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Rostami, Ali, Russ, Tom C, Sachdev, Perminder S, Safari, Hosein, Safiri, Saeid, Sahathevan, Ramesh, Salimi, Yahya, Satpathy, Maheswar, Sawhney, Monika, Saylan, Mete, Sepanlou, Sadaf G., Shafieesabet, Azadeh, Shaikh, Masood A, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Shigematsu, Mika, Shiri, Rahman, Shiue, Ivy, Silva, João P, Smith, Mari, Sobhani, Soheila, Stein, Dan J, Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael, Tovani-Palone, Marcos R, Tran, Bach X, Tran, Tung Thanh, Tsegay, Amanuel T, Ullah, Irfan, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Vlassov, Vasily, Wang, Yuan-Pang, Weiss, Jordan, Westerman, Ronny, Wijeratne, Tissa, Wyper, Grant M. A., Yano, Yuichiro, Yimer, Ebrahim M, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yousefifard, Mahmoud, Zaidi, Zoubida, Zare, Zohreh, Vos, Theo, Feigin, Valery L., Murray, Christopher J L, European Regional Development Fund (ERDF/FEDER), Generalitat Valenciana, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Subjects
Adult, Male, Article, Global Burden of Disease, Age Distribution, Life Expectancy, Sex Factors, RISK-FACTOR, Alzheimer Disease, Risk Factors, Prevalence, Humans, METAANALYSIS, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, DECLINE, Incidence, Age Factors, Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology, COGNITIVE IMPAIRMENT, PREVALENCE, TRENDS, Middle Aged, Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi, Caregivers, Dementia, Female, Quality-Adjusted Life Years
Abstract

BACKGROUND: The number of individuals living with dementia is increasing, negatively affecting families, communities, and health-care systems around the world. A successful response to these challenges requires an accurate understanding of the dementia disease burden. We aimed to present the first detailed analysis of the global prevalence, mortality, and overall burden of dementia as captured by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, and highlight the most important messages for clinicians and neurologists. METHODS: GBD 2016 obtained data on dementia from vital registration systems, published scientific literature and surveys, and data from health-service encounters on deaths, excess mortality, prevalence, and incidence from 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016, through systematic review and additional data-seeking efforts. To correct for differences in cause of death coding across time and locations, we modelled mortality due to dementia using prevalence data and estimates of excess mortality derived from countries that were most likely to code deaths to dementia relative to prevalence. Data were analysed by standardised methods to estimate deaths, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; computed as the sum of YLLs and YLDs), and the fractions of these metrics that were attributable to four risk factors that met GBD criteria for assessment (high body-mass index [BMI], high fasting plasma glucose, smoking, and a diet high in sugar-sweetened beverages). FINDINGS: In 2016, the global number of individuals who lived with dementia was 43·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 37·8-51·0), increased from 20.2 million (17·4-23·5) in 1990. This increase of 117% (95% UI 114-121) contrasted with a minor increase in age-standardised prevalence of 1·7% (1·0-2·4), from 701 cases (95% UI 602-815) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 712 cases (614-828) per 100 000 population in 2016. More women than men had dementia in 2016 (27·0 million, 95% UI 23·3-31·4, vs 16.8 million, 14.4-19.6), and dementia was the fifth leading cause of death globally, accounting for 2·4 million (95% UI 2·1-2·8) deaths. Overall, 28·8 million (95% UI 24·5-34·0) DALYs were attributed to dementia; 6·4 million (95% UI 3·4-10·5) of these could be attributed to the modifiable GBD risk factors of high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, smoking, and a high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages. INTERPRETATION: The global number of people living with dementia more than doubled from 1990 to 2016, mainly due to increases in population ageing and growth. Although differences in coding for causes of death and the heterogeneity in case-ascertainment methods constitute major challenges to the estimation of the burden of dementia, future analyses should improve on the methods for the correction of these biases. Until breakthroughs are made in prevention or curative treatment, dementia will constitute an increasing challenge to health-care systems worldwide. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. AA received financial support from the Department of Science and Technology, Government of India, (New Delhi, India) through the INSPIRE Faculty program. MSBS received Australian Government Research and Training Program funding for post-graduates to study at the Australian National University (Canberra, ACT, Australia). FC acknowledges support from the European Union (FEDER funds POCI/01/0145/FEDER/007728 and POCI/01/0145/FEDER/007265) and National Funds (FCT/MEC, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia and Ministério da Educação e Ciência) under the Partnership Agreements PT2020 UID/MULTI/04378/2013 and PT2020 UID/QUI/50006/2013. EC is supported by an Australian Research Council Future fellowship (FT3 140100085). AK was supported by the Miguel Servet contract financed by the CP13/00150 and PI15/00862 projects, integrated into the National R + D + I and funded by the ISCIII (General Branch Evaluation and Promotion of Health Research) and the European Regional Development fund (ISCIII-FEDER). MOO is supported by grant U54HG007479 from the National Institutes of Health. TCR is a member of the Alzheimer Scotland Dementia Research Centre (University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK) and is supported by Alzheimer Scotland. RT-S was partly supported by grant number PROMETEOII/2015/021 from Generalitat Valenciana and the national grant PI17/00719 from ISCIII-FEDER. TW acknowledges academic support from University of Rajarata (Mihintale, Sri Lanka). Sí

Published
2018

27. Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author

Naghavi, Mohsen, Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbas, Kaja M., Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Aboyans, Victor, Adetokunboh, Olatunji, Arnlov, Johan, Afshin, Ashkan, Agrawal, Anurag, Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Aiyar, Sneha, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Alahdab, Fares, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Noore, Alam, Tahiya, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Ali, Syed Danish, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Alkaabi, Juma M., Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, Francois, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Christine, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa, Alsharif, Ubai, Altirkawi, Khalid A., Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T., Amini, Erfan, Ammar, Walid, Amoako, Yaw Ampem, Anber, Nahla, Andersen, Hjalte H., Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Ansari, Hossein, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Anwari, Palwasha, Arora, Megha, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna Kumar, Asayesh, Hamid, Asgedom, Solomon W., Atey, Tesfay Mehari, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G. Arthur, Awasthi, Ashish, Paulina, Beatriz, Quintanilla, Ayala, Bejot, Yannick, Babalola, Tesleem Kayode, Bacha, Umar, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Barac, Aleksandra, Barboza, Miguel A., Barker-Collo, Suzanne L., Barquera, Simon, Barregard, Lars, Barrero, Lope H., Baune, Bernhard T., Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Bekele, Bayu Begashaw, Bell, Michelle L., Bennett, James R., Bensenor, Isabela M., Berhane, Adugnaw, Bernabe, Eduardo, Betsu, Balem Demtsu, Beuran, Mircea, Bhatt, Samir, Biadgilign, Sibhatu, Bienhoff, Kelly, Bikbov, Boris, Bisanzio, Donal, Bourne, Rupert R. A., Breitborde, Nicholas J. K., Negesa, Lemma, Bulto, Bulto, Bumgarner, Blair R., Butt, Zahid A., Cardenas, Rosario, Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero, Cameron, Ewan, Cesar Campuzano, Julio, Car, Josip, Jesus Carrero, Juan, Carter, Austin, Casey, Daniel C., Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Catala-Lopez, Ferran, Charlson, Fiona J., Chibueze, Chioma Ezinne, Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel, Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe, Chitheer, Abdulaal A., Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas, Ciobanu, Liliana G., Cirillo, Massimo, Cohen, Aaron J., Colombara, Danny, Cooper, Cyrus, Cowie, Benjamin C., Criqui, Michael H., Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dargan, Paul I., das Neves, Jose, Davitoiu, Dragos V., Davletov, Kairat, de Courten, Barbora, Degenhardt, Louisa, Deiparine, Selina, Deribe, Kebede, Deribew, Amare, Dey, Subhojit, Dicker, Daniel, Ding, Eric L., Djalalinia, Shirin, Huyen Phuc Do, Huyen Phuc Do, Doku, David Teye, Douwes-Schultz, Dirk, Driscoll, Tim R., Dubey, Manisha, Duncan, Bruce Bartholow, Echko, Michelle, El-Khatib, Ziad Ziad, Ellingsen, Christian Lycke, Enayati, Ahmadali, Erskine, Holly E., Eskandarieh, Sharareh, Esteghamati, Alireza, Ermakov, Sergey P., Estep, Kara, E Sa Farinha, Carla Sofia, Faro, Andre, Farzadfar, Farshad, Feigin, Valery L., Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, Joao C., Ferrari, Alize J., Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa, Filip, Irina, Finegold, Samuel, Fischer, Florian, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Flaxman, Abraham D., Foigt, Nataliya, Frank, Tahvi, Fraser, Maya, Fullman, Nancy, Furst, Thomas, Furtado, Joao M., Gakidou, Emmanuela, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L., Gebre, Teshome, Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe, Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde, Gebremichael, Delelegn Yilma, Geleijnse, Johanna M., Genova-Maleras, Ricard, Gesesew, Hailay Abrha, Gething, Peter W., Gillum, Richard F., Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed, Giref, Ababi Zergaw, Giroud, Maurice, Giussani, Giorgia, Godwin, William W., Gold, Audra L., Goldberg, Ellen M., Gona, Philimon N., Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Gouda, Hebe N., Goulart, Alessandra Carvalho, Griswold, Max, Gupta, Prakash C., Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Tanush, Gupta, Vipin, Haagsma, Juanita A., Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hailu, Alemayehu Desalegne, Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hambisa, Mitiku Teshome, Hamidi, Samer, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hancock, Jamie, Handal, Alexis J., Hankey, Graeme J., Hao, Yuantao, Harb, Hilda L., Hareri, Habtamu Abera, Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hay, Simon I., He, Fei, Hedayati, Mohammad T., Henry, Nathaniel J., Beatriz Heredia-Pi, Ileana, Herteliu, Claudiu, Hoek, Hans W., Horino, Masako, Horita, Nobuyuki, Hosgood, H. Dean, Hostiuc, Sorin, Hotez, Peter J., Hoy, Damian G., Huynh, Chantal, Iburg, Kim Moesgaard, Ikeda, Chad, Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile, Irenso, Asnake Ararsa, Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter, Jurisson, Mikk, Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Jahanmehr, Nader, Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B., Javanbakht, Mehdi, Jayaraman, Sudha P., Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jha, Vivekanand, John, Denny, Johnson, Catherine O., Johnson, Sarah Charlotte, Jonas, Jost B., Kabir, Zubair, Kadel, Rajendra, Kahsay, Amaha, Kamal, Ritul, Karch, Andre, Karimi, Seyed M., Karimkhani, Chante, Kasaeian, Amir, Kassaw, Nigussie Assefa, Kassebaum, Nicholas J., Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal, Kawakami, Norito, Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, Kemmer, Laura, Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khang, Young-Ho, Khoja, Abdullah Tawfih Abdullah, Khosravi, Ardeshir, Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Kieling, Christian, Kievlan, Daniel, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Yun Jin, Kimokoti, Ruth W., Kinfu, Yohannes, Kissoon, Niranjan, Kivimaki, Mika, Knudsen, Ann Kristin, Kopec, Jacek A., Kosen, Soewarta, Koul, Parvaiz A., Koyanagi, Ai, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kulikoff, Xie Rachel, Kumar, G. Anil, Kumar, Pushpendra, Kutz, Michael, Kyu, Hmwe H., Lal, Dharmesh Kumar, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lallukka, Tea, Lambert, Nkurunziza, Lan, Qing, Lansingh, Van C., Larsson, Anders, Lee, Paul H., Leigh, James, Leung, Janni, Levi, Miriam, Li, Yongmei, Kappe, Darya Li, Liang, Xiaofeng, Liben, Misgan Legesse, Lim, Stephen S., Liu, Angela, Liu, Patrick Y., Liu, Yang, Lodha, Rakesh, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lorkowski, Stefan, Lotufo, Paulo A., Lozano, Rafael, Lucas, Timothy C. D., Ma, Stefan, Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King, Maddison, Emilie R., Abd el Razek, Mohammed Magdy, Majdan, Marek, Majdzadeh, Reza, Majeed, Azeem, Malekzadeh, Reza, Malhotra, Rajesh, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Manguerra, Helena, Manyazewal, Tsegahun, Mapoma, Chabila C., Marczak, Laurie B., Markos, Desalegn, Martinez-Raga, Jose, Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlandio, Martopullo, Ira, McAlinden, Colm, McGaughey, Madeline, McGrath, John J., Mehata, Suresh, Meier, Toni, Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam, Memiah, Peter, Memish, Ziad A., Mengesha, Melkamu Merid, Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese, Menota, Bereket Gebremichael, Mensah, George A., Meretoja, Atte, Meretoja, Tuomo J., Millear, Anoushka, Miller, Ted R., Minnig, Shawn, Mirarefin, Mojde, Mirrakhimov, Erkin M., Misganaw, Awoke, Mishra, Shiva Raj, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mohammadi, Alireza, Mohammed, Shafiu, Mokdad, Ali H., Mola, Glen Liddell D., Mollenkopf, Sarah K., Molokhia, Mariam, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montanez Hernandez, Julio C., Montico, Marcella, Mooney, Meghan D., Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Moraga, Paula, Morawska, Lidia, Morrison, Shane D., Morozoff, Chloe, Mountjoy-Venning, Cliff, Mruts, Kalayu Birhane, Muller, Kate, Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana, Musa, Kamarul Imran, Nachega, Jean B., Naheed, Aliya, Naldi, Luigi, Nangia, Vinay, Nascimento, Bruno Ramos, Nasher, Jamal T., Natarajan, Gopalakrishnan, Negoi, Ionut, Ngunjiri, Josephine Wanjiku, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Grant Nguyen, Grant Nguyen, Minh Nguyen, Minh Nguyen, Quyen Le Nguyen, Quyen Le Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Nichols, Emma, Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini, Vuong Minh Nong, Vuong Minh Nong, Noubiap, Jean Jacques N., Ogbo, Felix Akpojene, Oh, In-Hwan, Okoro, Anselm, Olagunju, Andrew Toyin, Olsen, Helen E., Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun, Ong, Kanyin, Opio, John Nelson, Oren, Eyal, Ortiz, Alberto, Osman, Majdi, Ota, Erika, Pa, Mahesh, Pacella, Rosana E., Pakhale, Smita, Pana, Adrian, Panda, Basant Kumar, Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra, Papachristou, Christina, Park, Eun-Kee, Patten, Scott B., Patton, George C., Paudel, Deepak, Paulson, Katherine, Pereira, David M., Perez-Ruiz, Fernando, Perico, Norberto, Pervaiz, Aslam, Petzold, Max, Phillips, Michael Robert, Pigott, David M., Pinho, Christine, Plass, Dietrich, Pletcher, Martin A., Polinder, Suzanne, Postma, Maarten J., Pourmalek, Farshad, Purcell, Caroline, Qorbani, Mostafa, Radfar, Amir, Rafay, Anwar, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal, Rankin, Zane, Rao, Puja C., Rath, Goura Kishor, Rawaf, Salman, Ray, Sarah E., Rehm, Jurgen, Reiner, Robert C., Reitsma, Marissa B., Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Rezaei, Satar, Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh, Rokni, Mohammad Bagher, Ronfani, Luca, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Roth, Gregory A., Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Ruhago, George Mugambage, Saadat, Rizwan S. A. Soheil, Sachdev, Perminder S., Sadat, Nafis, Safdarian, Mahdi, Safi, Sare, Safiri, Saeid, Sagar, Rajesh, Sahathevan, Ramesh, Salama, Joseph, Salamati, Payman, Salomon, Joshua A., Samy, Abdallah M., Sanabria, Juan Ramon, Dolores Sanchez-Nino, Maria, Santomauro, Damian, Santos, Itamar S., Milicevic, Milena M. Santric, Sartorius, Benn, Satpathy, Maheswar, Shahraz, Saeid, Schmidt, Maria Ines, Schneider, Ione J. C., Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam, Schutte, Aletta E., Schwebel, David C., Schwendicke, Falk, Sepanlou, Sadaf G., Servan-Mori, Edson E., Shackelford, Katya Anne, Shaikh, Masood Ali, Shamsipour, Mansour, Shamsizadeh, Morteza, Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful, Sharma, Jayendra, Sharma, Rajesh, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shey, Muki, Shi, Peilin, Shields, Chloe, Shigematsu, Mika, Shiri, Rahman, Shirude, Shreya, Shiue, Ivy, Shoman, Haitham, Shrime, Mark G., Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Silpakit, Naris, Silva, Joao Pedro, Singh, Abhishek, Singh, Jasvinder A., Skiadaresi, Eirini, Sligar, Amber, Smith, Alison, Smith, David L., Smith, Mari, Sobaih, Badr H. A., Soneji, Samir, Sorensen, Reed J. D., Soriano, Joan B., Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T., Srinivasan, Vinay, Stanaway, Jeffrey D., Stathopoulou, Vasiliki, Steel, Nicholas, Stein, Dan J., Steiner, Caitlyn, Steinke, Sabine, Stokes, Mark Andrew, Strong, Mark, Strub, Bryan, Subart, Michelle, Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale, Sunguya, Bruno F., Sur, Patrick J., Swaminathan, Soumya, Sykes, Bryan L., Tabares-Seisdedos, Rafael, Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar, Takahashi, Ken, Takala, Jukka S., Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Tarawneh, Mohammed Rasoul, Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Taveira, Nuno, Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw, Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash, Temsah, Mohamad-Hani, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thakur, J. S., Thamsuwan, Ornwipa, Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman, Thomas, Katie E., Thompson, Alex H., Thomson, Alan J., Thrift, Amanda G., Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan, Topor-Madry, Roman, Torre, Anna, Tortajada, Miguel, Towbin, Jeffrey Allen, Bach Xuan Tran, Bach Xuan Tran, Troeger, Christopher, Truelsen, Thomas, Tsoi, Derrick, Tuzcu, Emin Murat, Tyrovolas, Stefanos, Ukwaja, Kingsley N., Undurraga, Eduardo A., Updike, Rachel, Uthman, Olalekan A., Uzochukwu, Benjamin S. Chudi, van Boven, Job F. M., Vasankari, Tommi, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Violante, Francesco S., Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Vos, Theo, Wakayo, Tolassa, Wallin, Mitchell T., Wang, Yuan-Pang, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G., Weiss, Daniel J., Werdecker, Andrea, Westerman, Ronny, Whetter, Brian, Whiteford, Harvey A., Wijeratne, Tissa, Wiysonge, Charles Shey, Woldeyes, Belete Getahun, Wolfe, Charles D. A., Woodbrook, Rachel, Workicho, Abdulhalik, Xavier, Denis, Xiao, Qingyang, Xu, Gelin, Yaghoubi, Mohsen, Yakob, Bereket, Yano, Yuichiro, Yaseri, Mehdi, Yimam, Hassen Hamid, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Yotebieng, Marcel, Younis, Mustafa Z., Zaidi, Zoubida, Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed, Zegeye, Elias Asfaw, Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew, Zerfu, Taddese Alemu, Zhang, Anthony Lin, Zhang, Xueying, Zipkin, Ben, Zodpey, Sanjay, Lopez, Alan D., Murray, Christopher J. L., Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbas, Kaja M, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Aboyans, Victor, Adetokunboh, Olatunji, Afshin, Ashkan, Agrawal, Anurag, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aiyar, Sneha, Alahdab, Fare, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Noore, Alam, Tahiya, Alene, Kefyalew Addi, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Ali, Syed Danish, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Alkaabi, Juma M, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, Françoi, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Christine, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa, Alsharif, Ubai, Altirkawi, Khalid A, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amini, Erfan, Ammar, Walid, Amoako, Yaw Ampem, Anber, Nahla, Andersen, Hjalte H, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Ansari, Hossein, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Ärnlöv, Johan, Arora, Megha, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna Kumar, Asayesh, Hamid, Asgedom, Solomon W, Atey, Tesfay Mehari, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G, Awasthi, Ashish, Babalola, Tesleem Kayode, Bacha, Umar, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Barac, Aleksandra, Barboza, Miguel A, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Barquera, Simon, Barregard, Lar, Barrero, Lope H, Baune, Bernhard T, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Béjot, Yannick, Bekele, Bayu Begashaw, Bell, Michelle L, Bennett, James R, Bensenor, Isabela M, Berhane, Adugnaw, Bernabé, Eduardo, Betsu, Balem Demtsu, Beuran, Mircea, Bhatt, Samir, Biadgilign, Sibhatu, Bienhoff, Kelly, Bikbov, Bori, Bisanzio, Donal, Bourne, Rupert R A, Breitborde, Nicholas J K, Bulto, Lemma Negesa Bulto, Bumgarner, Blair R, Butt, Zahid A, Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero, Cameron, Ewan, Campuzano, Julio Cesar, Car, Josip, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carrero, Juan Jesu, Carter, Austin, Casey, Daniel C, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Charlson, Fiona J, Chibueze, Chioma Ezinne, Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel, Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe, Chitheer, Abdulaal A, Christopher, Devasahayam Jesuda, Ciobanu, Liliana G, Cirillo, Massimo, Cohen, Aaron J, Colombara, Danny, Cooper, Cyru, Cowie, Benjamin C, Criqui, Michael H, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dargan, Paul I, das Neves, José, Davitoiu, Dragos V, Davletov, Kairat, de Courten, Barbora, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Degenhardt, Louisa, Deiparine, Selina, Deribe, Kebede, Deribew, Amare, Dey, Subhojit, Dicker, Daniel, Ding, Eric L, Djalalinia, Shirin, Do, Huyen Phuc, Doku, David Teye, Douwes-Schultz, Dirk, Driscoll, Tim R, Dubey, Manisha, Duncan, Bruce Bartholow, Echko, Michelle, El-Khatib, Ziad Ziad, Ellingsen, Christian Lycke, Enayati, Ahmadali, Erskine, Holly E, Eskandarieh, Sharareh, Esteghamati, Alireza, Estep, Kara, Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sa, Faro, André, Farzadfar, Farshad, Feigin, Valery L, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, João C, Ferrari, Alize J, Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa, Filip, Irina, Finegold, Samuel, Fischer, Florian, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Flaxman, Abraham D, Foigt, Nataliya, Frank, Tahvi, Fraser, Maya, Fullman, Nancy, Fürst, Thoma, Furtado, Joao M, Gakidou, Emmanuela, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L, Gebre, Teshome, Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe, Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde, Gebremichael, Delelegn Yilma, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Genova-Maleras, Ricard, Gesesew, Hailay Abrha, Gething, Peter W, Gillum, Richard F, Giroud, Maurice, Giussani, Giorgia, Godwin, William W, Gold, Audra L, Goldberg, Ellen M, Gona, Philimon N, Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Gouda, Hebe N, Goulart, Alessandra Carvalho, Griswold, Max, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Tanush, Gupta, Vipin, Haagsma, Juanita A, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hailu, Alemayehu Desalegne, Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hambisa, Mitiku Teshome, Hamidi, Samer, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hancock, Jamie, Handal, Alexis J, Hankey, Graeme J, Hao, Yuantao, Harb, Hilda L, Hareri, Habtamu Abera, Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh, Havmoeller, Rasmu, Hay, Simon I, He, Fei, Hedayati, Mohammad T, Henry, Nathaniel J, Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz, Herteliu, Claudiu, Hoek, Hans W, Horino, Masako, Horita, Nobuyuki, Hosgood, H Dean, Hostiuc, Sorin, Hotez, Peter J, Hoy, Damian G, Huynh, Chantal, Iburg, Kim Moesgaard, Ikeda, Chad, Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile, Irenso, Asnake Ararsa, Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter, Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jahanmehr, Nader, Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B, Javanbakht, Mehdi, Jayaraman, Sudha P, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jha, Vivekanand, John, Denny, Johnson, Catherine O, Johnson, Sarah Charlotte, Jonas, Jost B, Jürisson, Mikk, Kabir, Zubair, Kadel, Rajendra, Kahsay, Amaha, Kamal, Ritul, Karch, André, Karimi, Seyed M, Karimkhani, Chante, Kasaeian, Amir, Kassaw, Nigussie Assefa, Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal, Kawakami, Norito, Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, Kemmer, Laura, Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khang, Young-Ho, Khoja, Abdullah Tawfih Abdullah, Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein, Khosravi, Ardeshir, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad, Kieling, Christian, Kievlan, Daniel, Kim, Yun Jin, Kim, Daniel, Kimokoti, Ruth W, Kinfu, Yohanne, Kissoon, Niranjan, Kivimaki, Mika, Knudsen, Ann Kristin, Kopec, Jacek A, Kosen, Soewarta, Koul, Parvaiz A, Koyanagi, Ai, Kulikoff, Xie Rachel, Kumar, G Anil, Kumar, Pushpendra, Kutz, Michael, Kyu, Hmwe H, Lal, Dharmesh Kumar, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lambert, Tea Lallukka Nkurunziza, Lan, Qing, Lansingh, Van C, Larsson, Ander, Lee, Paul H, Leigh, Jame, Leung, Janni, Levi, Miriam, Li, Yongmei, Li Kappe, Darya, Liang, Xiaofeng, Liben, Misgan Legesse, Lim, Stephen S, Liu, Patrick Y, Liu, Angela, Liu, Yang, Lodha, Rakesh, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lopez, Alan D, Lorkowski, Stefan, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lozano, Rafael, Lucas, Timothy C D, Ma, Stefan, Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King, Maddison, Emilie R, Magdy Abd El Razek, Mohammed, Majdan, Marek, Majdzadeh, Reza, Majeed, Azeem, Malekzadeh, Reza, Malhotra, Rajesh, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Manguerra, Helena, Manyazewal, Tsegahun, Mapoma, Chabila C, Marczak, Laurie B, Markos, Desalegn, Martinez-Raga, Jose, Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio, Martopullo, Ira, McAlinden, Colm, McGaughey, Madeline, McGrath, John J, Mehata, Suresh, Meier, Toni, Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam, Memiah, Peter, Memish, Ziad A, Mengesha, Melkamu Merid, Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese, Menota, Bereket Gebremichael, Mensah, George A, Meretoja, Tuomo J, Meretoja, Atte, Millear, Anoushka, Miller, Ted R, Minnig, Shawn, Mirarefin, Mojde, Mirrakhimov, Erkin M, Misganaw, Awoke, Mishra, Shiva Raj, Mohamed, Ibrahim Abdelmageem, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mohammadi, Alireza, Mohammed, Shafiu, Mokdad, Ali H, Mola, Glen Liddell D, Mollenkopf, Sarah K, Molokhia, Mariam, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montañez, Julio C, Montico, Marcella, Mooney, Meghan D, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Moraga, Paula, Morawska, Lidia, Morozoff, Chloe, Morrison, Shane D, Mountjoy-Venning, Cliff, Mruts, Kalayu Birhane, Muller, Kate, Murray, Christopher J L, Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana, Musa, Kamarul Imran, Nachega, Jean B, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naheed, Aliya, Naldi, Luigi, Nangia, Vinay, Nascimento, Bruno Ramo, Nasher, Jamal T, Natarajan, Gopalakrishnan, Negoi, Ionut, Ngunjiri, Josephine Wanjiku, Nguyen, Cuong Tat, Nguyen, Quyen Le, Nguyen, Trang Huyen, Nguyen, Grant, Nguyen, Minh, Nichols, Emma, Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini, Nong, Vuong Minh, Noubiap, Jean Jacques N, Ogbo, Felix Akpojene, Oh, In-Hwan, Okoro, Anselm, Olagunju, Andrew Toyin, Olsen, Helen E, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun, Ong, Kanyin, Opio, John Nelson, Oren, Eyal, Ortiz, Alberto, Osman, Majdi, Ota, Erika, PA, Mahesh, Pacella, Rosana E, Pakhale, Smita, Pana, Adrian, Panda, Basant Kumar, Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra, Papachristou, Christina, Park, Eun-Kee, Patten, Scott B, Patton, George C, Paudel, Deepak, Paulson, Katherine, Pereira, David M, Perez-Ruiz, Fernando, Perico, Norberto, Pervaiz, Aslam, Petzold, Max, Phillips, Michael Robert, Pigott, David M, Pinho, Christine, Plass, Dietrich, Pletcher, Martin A, Polinder, Suzanne, Postma, Maarten J, Pourmalek, Farshad, Purcell, Caroline, Qorbani, Mostafa, Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala, Radfar, Amir, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal, Rankin, Zane, Rao, Puja C, Rath, Goura Kishor, Rawaf, Salman, Ray, Sarah E, Rehm, Jürgen, Reiner, Robert C, Reitsma, Marissa B, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Rezaei, Satar, Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh, Rokni, Mohammad Bagher, Ronfani, Luca, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Roth, Gregory A, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Ruhago, George Mugambage, SA, Rizwan, Saadat, Soheil, Sachdev, Perminder S, Sadat, Nafi, Safdarian, Mahdi, Safi, Sare, Safiri, Saeid, Sagar, Rajesh, Sahathevan, Ramesh, Salama, Joseph, Salamati, Payman, Salomon, Joshua A, Samy, Abdallah M, Sanabria, Juan Ramon, Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolore, Santomauro, Damian, Santos, Itamar S, Santric Milicevic, Milena M, Sartorius, Benn, Satpathy, Maheswar, Schmidt, Maria Inê, Schneider, Ione J C, Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam, Schutte, Aletta E, Schwebel, David C, Schwendicke, Falk, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Servan-Mori, Edson E, Shackelford, Katya Anne, Shahraz, Saeid, Shaikh, Masood Ali, Shamsipour, Mansour, Shamsizadeh, Morteza, Sharma, Jayendra, Sharma, Rajesh, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shey, Muki, Shields, Chloe, Shigematsu, Mika, Shiri, Rahman, Shirude, Shreya, Shiue, Ivy, Shoman, Haitham, Shrime, Mark G, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Silpakit, Nari, Silva, João Pedro, Singh, Jasvinder A, Singh, Abhishek, Skiadaresi, Eirini, Sligar, Amber, Smith, David L, Smith, Alison, Smith, Mari, Sobaih, Badr H A, Soneji, Samir, Sorensen, Reed J D, Soriano, Joan B, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Srinivasan, Vinay, Stanaway, Jeffrey D, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki, Steel, Nichola, Stein, Dan J, Steiner, Caitlyn, Steinke, Sabine, Stokes, Mark Andrew, Strong, Mark, Strub, Bryan, Subart, Michelle, Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale, Sunguya, Bruno F, Sur, Patrick J, Swaminathan, Soumya, Sykes, Bryan L, Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael, Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar, Takahashi, Ken, Takala, Jukka S, Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Tarawneh, Mohammed Rasoul, Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Taveira, Nuno, Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw, Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash, Temsah, Mohamad-Hani, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thakur, J.S., Thamsuwan, Ornwipa, Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman, Thomas, Katie E, Thompson, Alex H, Thomson, Alan J, Thrift, Amanda G, Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan, Topor-Madry, Roman, Torre, Anna, Tortajada, Miguel, Towbin, Jeffrey Allen, Tran, Bach Xuan, Troeger, Christopher, Truelsen, Thoma, Tsoi, Derrick, Tyrovolas, Stefano, Ukwaja, Kingsley N, Undurraga, Eduardo A, Updike, Rachel, Uthman, Olalekan A, Uzochukwu, Benjamin S Chudi, van Boven, Job F M, Vasankari, Tommi, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Violante, Francesco S, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Vos, Theo, Wakayo, Tolassa, Wallin, Mitchell T, Wang, Yuan-Pang, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Weiss, Daniel J, Werdecker, Andrea, Westerman, Ronny, Whetter, Brian, Whiteford, Harvey A, Wijeratne, Tissa, Wiysonge, Charles Shey, Woldeyes, Belete Getahun, Wolfe, Charles D A, Woodbrook, Rachel, Workicho, Abdulhalik, Xavier, Deni, Xiao, Qingyang, Xu, Gelin, Yaghoubi, Mohsen, Yakob, Bereket, Yano, Yuichiro, Yaseri, Mehdi, Yimam, Hassen Hamid, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Yotebieng, Marcel, Younis, Mustafa Z, Zaidi, Zoubida, Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed, Zegeye, Elias Asfaw, Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew, Zerfu, Taddese Alemu, Zhang, Anthony Lin, Zhang, Xueying, Zipkin, Ben, Zodpey, Sanjay, Giref, Ababi Zergaw, Rafay, Anwar, Tuzcu, Emin Murat, Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich, Shi, Peilin, Gupta, Parkash C, Erasmus MC other, Public Health, Neurosciences, Viðskiptadeild (HR), School of Business (RU), Háskólinn í Reykjavík, Reykjavik University, Mohsen, Naghavi, Amanuel, Alemu, Abajobir, Cristiana, Abbafati, Kaja, M, Abbas, Foad, Abd Allah, Semaw, Ferede, Abera, Victor, Aboyan, Olatunji, Adetokunboh, Johan, Ärnlöv, Ashkan, Afshin, Anurag, Agrawal, Aliasghar, Ahmad, Kiadaliri, Alireza, Ahmadi, Muktar, Beshir, Ahmed, Amani, Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud, Taki, Eddine, Aichour, Sneha, Aiyar, Ayman, Al Eyadhy, Fares, Alahdab, Ziyad, Al Aly, Khurshid, Alam, Noore, Alam, Tahiya, Alam, Kefyalew, Addi, Alene, Syed, Danish, Ali, Reza, Alizadeh Navaei, Juma, M, Alkaabi, Ala’A, Alkerwi, François, Alla, Peter, Allebeck, Christine, Allen, Rajaa, Al Raddadi, Ubai, Alsharif, Khalid, A, Altirkawi, Nelson, Alvis Guzman, Azmeraw, T, Amare, Erfan, Amini, Walid, Ammar, Yaw, Ampem, Amoako, Nahla, Anber, Hjalte, H, Andersen, Catalina, Liliana, Andrei, Sofia, Androudi, Hossein, Ansari, Carl, Abelardo, T, Antonio, Palwasha, Anwari, Megha, Arora, Al, Artaman, Krishna, Kumar, Aryal, Hamid, Asayesh, Solomon, W, Asgedom, Tesfay, Mehari, Atey, Leticia, Avila Burgo, Euripide, Frinel, G, Arthur, Avokpaho, Ashish, Awasthi, Beatriz, Paulina, Ayala, Quintanilla, Yannick, Béjot, Tesleem, Kayode, Babalola, Umar, Bacha, Kalpana, Balakrishnan, Aleksandra, Barac, Miguel, A, Barboza, Suzanne, L, Barker, Collo, Simon, Barquera, Lars, Barregard, Lope, H, Barrero, Bernhard, T, Baune, Neeraj, Bedi, Ettore, Beghi, Bayu, Begashaw, Bekele, Michelle, L, Bell, James, R, Bennett, Isabela, M, Bensenor, Adugnaw, Berhane, Eduardo, Bernabé, Balem, Demtsu, Betsu, Mircea, Beuran, Samir, Bhatt, Sibhatu, Biadgilign, Kelly, Bienhoff, Boris, Bikbov, Donal, Bisanzio, Rupert, R, A, Bourne, Nicholas, J, K, Breitborde, Lemma, Negesa, Bulto, Bulto, Blair, R, Bumgarner, Zahid, A, Butt, Rosario, Cárdena, Lucero, Cahuana Hurtado, Ewan, Cameron, Julio, Cesar, Campuzano, Josip, Car, Juan, Jesu, Carrero, Austin, Carter, Daniel, C, Casey, Carlo, A, Castañeda, Orjuela, Ferrán, Catalá López, Fiona, J, Charlson, Chioma, Ezinne, Chibueze, Odgerel, Chimed Ochir, Vesper, Hichilombwe, Chisumpa, Abdulaal, A, Chitheer, Devasahayam, Jesuda, Christopher, Liliana, G, Ciobanu, Aaron, J, and Cohen

Subjects
Dánarmein, Male, Heilsufar, Dánartíðni, Newborn infants, Lífslíkur, Life expectancy, Communicable diseases, Global Health, Global Burden of Disease, Disasters, Pregnancy, Cause of Death, Psychology, Child, Konur, Aged, 80 and over, Ungbörn, CLIMATE-CHANGE, PLASMODIUM-FALCIPARUM, Kransæðasjúkdómar, Global burden of disease/statistics and numerical data, Medicine (all), Men, Þjóðir, Öndunarfærasjúkdómar, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, Middle Aged, Nutrition Disorders, PREVALENCE, Coronary heart disease, Smitsjúkdómar, Death, Suicide, Cardiovascular diseases, Sálfræði, World health, Child, Preschool, Nýburar, Female, GBD, mortality, Infants, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Age distribution, Global Health Metrics, Adult, Diarrhea, AFRICA, HUMAN HEALTH, Adolescent, GBD, UNITED-STATES, Socioeconomic factors, Communicable Diseases, Young Adult, Age Distribution, Heilbrigðisvísindi, Medicine, General & Internal, General & Internal Medicine, Humans, QUALITY, Women, Nutrition disorders, INCOME COUNTRIES, Mortality, Noncommunicable Diseases, Aged, Science & Technology, Infant, Newborn, Infant, Respiratory infections, Næringarskortur, ALCOHOL POLICY, mortality, Malaria, Pregnancy Complications, Socioeconomic Factors, Áverkar, Karlar, Wounds and Injuries, Félagshagfræði, Accidental Falls, Cause of death/trends, RESISTANCE
Abstract

Correction: Group Author(s): GBD 2016 Causes Death LANCET Volume: 390 Issue: 10106 Pages: E38-E38 Published: OCT 28 2017 Group Author(s): GBD 2016 Dis Injury Incidence LANCET Volume: 390 Issue: 10106 Pages: E38-E38 Published: OCT 28 2017, Background Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. Methods We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. Findings The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71.2-73.2) of deaths in 2016 with 19.3% (18.5-20.4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8.43% (8.00-8.67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1.80 million deaths (95% UI 1.59 million to 1.89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2.89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1.59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe. Interpretation The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems., Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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28. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author

Hay, Simon I, Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbas, Kaja M, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdulle, Abdishakur M, Abebo, Teshome Abuka, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Aboyans, Victor, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Ackerman, Ilana N, Adedeji, Isaac A, Adetokunboh, Olatunji, Afshin, Ashkan, Aggarwal, Rakesh, Agrawal, Sutapa, Agrawal, Anurag, Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Aiyar, Sneha, Akinyemiju, Tomi F, Akseer, Nadia, Al Lami, Faris Hasan, Alahdab, Fares, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Noore, Alam, Tahiya, Alasfoor, Deena, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Ali, Raghib, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Alkaabi, Juma M, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, Francois, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Christine, Al-Maskari, Fatma, AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa, Alsharif, Ubai, Alsowaidi, Shirina, Althouse, Benjamin M, Altirkawi, Khalid A, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amini, Erfan, Ammar, Walid, Ampem, Yaw Amoako, Ansha, Mustafa Geleto, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Arnlov, Johan, Arora, Megha, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna Kumar, Asgedom, Solomon W, Atey, Tesfay Mehari, Atnafu, Niguse Tadele, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur, Awasthi, Ashish, Awasthi, Shally, Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala, Azarpazhooh, Mahmoud Reza, Azzopardi, Peter, Babalola, Tesleem Kayode, Bacha, Umar, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Bannick, Marlena S, Barac, Aleksandra, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Barnighausen, Till, Barquera, Simon, Barrero, Lope H, Basu, Sanjay, Battista, Robert, Battle, Katherine E, Baune, Bernhard T, Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Bejot, Yannick, Bekele, Bayu Begashaw, Bell, Michelle L, Bennett, Derrick A, Bennett, James R, Bensenor, Isabela M, Benson, Jennifer, Berhane, Adugnaw, Berhe, Derbew Fikadu, Bernabe, Eduardo, Betsu, Balem Demtsu, Beuran, Mircea, Beyene, Addisu Shunu, Bhansali, Anil, Bhatt, Samir, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Biadgilign, Sibhatu, Bienhoff, Kelly, Bikbov, Boris, Birungi, Charles, Biryukov, Stan, Bisanzio, Donal, Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie, Blyth, Fiona M, Boneya, Dube Jara, Bose, Dipan, Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R, Bourne, Rupert RA, Brainin, Michael, Brayne, Carol EG, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas JK, Briant, Paul S, Britton, Gabrielle, Brugha, Traolach S, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Bulto, Lemma Negesa Bulto, Bumgarner, Blair, Butt, Zahid A, Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero, Cameron, Ewan, Ricardo Campos-Nonato, Ismael, Carabin, Helene, Cardenas, Rosario, Carpenter, David O, Carrero, Juan Jesus, Carter, Austin, Carvalho, Felix, Casey, Daniel, Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo, Castle, Chris D, Catala-Lopez, Ferran, Chang, Jung-Chen, Charlson, Fiona J, Chaturvedi, Pankaj, Chen, Honglei, Chibalabala, Mirriam, Chibueze, Chioma Ezinne, Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe, Chitheer, Abdulaal A, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas, Ciobanu, Liliana G, Cirillo, Massimo, Colombara, Danny, Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cooper, Cyrus, Cortesi, Paolo Angelo, Cortinovis, Monica, Criqui, Michael H, Cromwell, Elizabeth A, Cross, Marita, Crump, John A, Dadi, Abel Fekadu, Dalal, Koustuv, Damasceno, Albertino, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Das Neves, Jose, Davitoiu, Dragos V, Davletov, Kairat, De Courten, Barbora, De Leo, Diego, De Steur, Hans, Degenhardt, Louisa, Deiparine, Selina, Dellavalle, Robert P, Deribe, Kebede, Deribew, Amare, Des Jarlais, Don C, Dey, Subhojit, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dhillon, Preet K, Dicker, Daniel, Djalalinia, Shirin, Do, Huyen Phuc, Dokova, Klara, Doku, David Teye, Dorsey, E Ray, Bender Dos Santos, Kadine Priscila, Driscoll, Tim R, Dubey, Manisha, Duncan, Bruce Bartholow, Ebel, Beth E, Echko, Michelle, El-Khatib, Ziad Ziad, Enayati, Ahmadali, Endries, Aman Yesuf, Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich, Erskine, Holly E, Eshetie, Setegn, Eshrati, Babak, Esteghamati, Alireza, Estep, Kara, Fanuel, Fanuel Belayneh Bekele, Farag, Tamer, Sofia, Carla, Farinha, Sa, Faro, Andre, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fazeli, Mir Sohail, Feigin, Valery L, Feigl, Andrea B, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, Joao C, Ferrari, Alize J, Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa, Filip, Irina, Fischer, Florian, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Flaxman, Abraham D, Foigt, Nataliya, Foreman, Kyle J, Franklin, Richard C, Frostad, Joseph J, Fullman, Nancy, Furst, Thomas, Furtado, Joao M, Futran, Neal D, Gakidou, Emmanuela, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L, Gebre, Teshome, Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe, Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Geleto, Ayele, Gemechu, Bikila Lencha, Gesesew, Hailay Abrha, Gething, Peter W, Ghajar, Alireza, Gibney, Katherine B, Gillum, Richard F, Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed, Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo, Giussani, Giorgia, Godwin, William W, Goel, Kashish, Goenka, Shifalika, Goldberg, Ellen M, Gona, Philimon N, Goodridge, Amador, Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Gosselin, Richard A, Gotay, Carolyn C, Goto, Atsushi, Goulart, Alessandra Carvalho, Graetz, 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Vafa, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz, Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Rajsic, Sasa, Ram, Usha, Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal, Rangaswamy, Thara, Rankin, Zane, Rao, Paturi Vishnupriya, Rao, Puja C, Rawaf, Salman, Ray, Sarah E, Reiner, Robert C, Reinig, Nikolas, Reitsma, Marissa, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Renzaho, Andre MN, Resnikoff, Serge, Rezaei, Satar, Ribeiro, Antonio L, Roba, Hirbo Shore, Robinson, Stephen R, Rojas-Rueda, David, Rokni, Mohammad Bagher, Ronfani, Luca, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Roth, Gregory A, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Roy, Ambuj, Rubagotti, Enrico, Ruhago, George Mugambage, Saadat, Soheil, Safdarian, Mahdi, Safiri, Saeid, Sagar, Rajesh, Sahathevan, Ramesh, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Salama, Joseph, Saleh, Muhammad Muhammad, Salomon, Joshua A, Salvi, Sundeep Santosh, Samy, Abdallah M, Sanabria, Juan Ramon, Dolores Sanchez-Nino, Maria, Santomauro, Damian, Santos, Joao Vasco, Santos, Itamar S, Milicevic, Milena M Santric, Sartorius, Benn, Satpathy, Maheswar, Sawhney, 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Zoubida, Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed, Zegeye, Elias Asfaw, Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew, Zhang, Xueying, Zheng, Yingfeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zipkin, Ben, Zodpey, Sanjay, Zoeckler, Leo, Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna, Murray, Christopher JL, and Collaborators, GBD DALYs HALE

Subjects
Adult, Aged, 80 and over, Male, 1. No poverty, Middle Aged, Global Health, Communicable Diseases, 3. Good health, Global Burden of Disease, Age Distribution, Life Expectancy, Residence Characteristics, Cause of Death, Humans, Wounds and Injuries, Disabled Persons, Female, sense organs, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Sex Distribution, Noncommunicable Diseases, Aged
Abstract

Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

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