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What is the impact on intranational trade and regional economic outcomes when the quality and lane capacity of an existing paved road network is expanded significantly? This paper investigates this question for the case of Turkey, which undertook a large-scale public investment in roads during the 2000s. Using spatially disaggregated data on road upgrades and domestic transactions, the paper estimates a large positive impact of reduced travel times on trade as well as local manufacturing employment and wages. A quantitative exercise using a workhorse model of spatial equilibrium implies heterogeneous effects across locations, with aggregate real income gains reaching 2–3 percent in the long run. Reductions in travel times increased the local employment-to-population ratio but had no effect on local population. The model is extended by endogenizing the labor supply decision to capture this finding. The model-implied elasticity of employment rates to travel time reductions captures about one-third of the empirical elasticity.

Poor domestic transportation infrastructure in developing countries is often cited as an important impediment for accessing international markets. Yet, evidence on how transportation infrastructure improvements affect the volume and composition of exports is scarce. Drawing on the large-scale public investment in expressways undertaken in Turkey during the 2000s, this paper contributes to our understanding of how internal trade costs affect regional exports and specialization. Two results emerge. First, we estimate that this road infrastructure project accounts for 15 percent of the export increase from interior regions, generating a 10-year discounted stream of additional export revenues that amount to between 9 and 14 percent of the value of the investment. Second, while the exports of all industries within a given region increase in response to improvements in connectivity to the international gateways of the country, the magnitude of this increase is larger the more time sensitive an industry is. Accordingly, we also observe an increase in the regional employment and revenue shares of such industries. Our results support the hypothesis that internal trade costs can be a determinant of international specialization and comparative advantage.

This study argues that the ability to mitigate risks associated with international trade is particularly important at times of heightened uncertainty, such as the economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Risk mitigation can be achieved through letters of credit (LCs), trade finance instruments providing guarantees to trading partners. As their use varies across products, exports of some products are more resilient than others during times of increased uncertainty. This situation reverses in times of financial crises when distressed banks may limit the supply of LCs. Our analysis using data on US and EU-15 exports during the Covid crisis and the Global Financial Crisis provides empirical support for these hypotheses. © 2021, International Monetary Fund.