6 results on '"Lucas, Pablo M."'
Search Results
2. Modelling the probability of meeting IUCN Red List criteria to support reassessments.
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Henry, Etienne G., Santini, Luca, Butchart, Stuart H. M., González‐Suárez, Manuela, Lucas, Pablo M., Benítez‐López, Ana, Mancini, Giordano, Jung, Martin, Cardoso, Pedro, Zizka, Alexander, Meyer, Carsten, Akçakaya, H. Reşit, Berryman, Alex J., Cazalis, Victor, and Di Marco, Moreno
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ENDANGERED species ,BIOLOGICAL extinction ,REGRESSION analysis ,RISK assessment ,BIODIVERSITY conservation - Abstract
Comparative extinction risk analysis—which predicts species extinction risk from correlation with traits or geographical characteristics—has gained research attention as a promising tool to support extinction risk assessment in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. However, its uptake has been very limited so far, possibly because existing models only predict a species' Red List category, without indicating which Red List criteria may be triggered. This prevents such approaches to be integrated into Red List assessments. We overcome this implementation gap by developing models that predict the probability of species meeting individual Red List criteria. Using data on the world's birds, we evaluated the predictive performance of our criterion‐specific models and compared it with the typical criterion‐blind modelling approach. We compiled data on biological traits (e.g. range size, clutch size) and external drivers (e.g. change in canopy cover) often associated with extinction risk. For each specific criterion, we modelled the relationship between extinction risk predictors and species' Red List category under that criterion using ordinal regression models. We found criterion‐specific models were better at identifying threatened species compared to a criterion‐blind model (higher sensitivity), but less good at identifying not threatened species (lower specificity). As expected, different covariates were important for predicting extinction risk under different criteria. Change in annual temperature was important for criteria related to population trends, while high forest dependency was important for criteria related to restricted area of occupancy or small population size. Our criteria‐specific method can support Red List assessors by producing outputs that identify species likely to meet specific criteria, and which are the most important predictors. These species can then be prioritised for re‐evaluation. We expect this new approach to increase the uptake of extinction risk models in Red List assessments, bridging a long‐standing research‐implementation gap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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3. Prioritizing the reassessment of data‐deficient species on the IUCN Red List.
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Cazalis, Victor, Santini, Luca, Lucas, Pablo M., González‐Suárez, Manuela, Hoffmann, Michael, Benítez‐López, Ana, Pacifici, Michela, Schipper, Aafke M., Böhm, Monika, Zizka, Alexander, Clausnitzer, Viola, Meyer, Carsten, Jung, Martin, Butchart, Stuart H. M., Cardoso, Pedro, Mancini, Giordano, Akçakaya, H. Reşit, Young, Bruce E., Patoine, Guillaume, and Di Marco, Moreno
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ODONATA ,ENDANGERED species ,BIOLOGICAL extinction ,SPECIES ,DAMSELFLIES ,PUBLISHED articles - Abstract
Copyright of Conservation Biology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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- 2023
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4. Bridging the research-implementation gap in IUCN Red List assessments
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Cazalis, Victor, Di Marco, Moreno, Butchart, Stuart H.M., Akçakaya, H. Reşit, González-Suárez, Manuela, Meyer, Carsten, Clausnitzer, Viola, Böhm, Monika, Zizka, Alexander, Cardoso, Pedro, Schipper, Aafke M., Bachman, Steven P., Young, Bruce E., Hoffmann, Michael, Benítez‐López, Ana, Lucas, Pablo M., Pettorelli, Nathalie, Patoine, Guillaume, Pacifici, Michela, Jörger-Hickfang, Theresa, Brooks, Thomas M., Rondinini, Carlo, Hill, Samantha L.L., Visconti, Piero, Santini, Luca, and Zoology
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OPPORTUNITIES ,IMPACT ,1181 Ecology, evolutionary biology ,AMPHIBIANS ,CONSERVATION STATUS ,THREAT ,DEFORESTATION ,QUANTIFICATION ,SPECIES TRAITS ,EXTINCTION RISK ,VALIDATION ,1172 Environmental sciences - Abstract
The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species is central in biodiversity conservation, but insufficient resources hamper its long-term growth, updating, and consistency. Models or automated calculations can alleviate those challenges by providing standardised estimates required for assessments, or prioritising species for (re-)assessments. However, while numerous scientific papers have proposed such methods, few have been integrated into assessment practice, highlighting a critical research-implementation gap. We believe this gap can be bridged by fostering communication and collaboration between academic researchers and Red List practitioners, and by developing and maintaining user-friendly platforms to automate application of the methods. We propose that developing methods better encompassing Red List criteria, systems, and drivers is the next priority to support the Red List.
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- 2022
5. Biases in comparative analyses of extinction risk: mind the gap.
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González-Suárez, Manuela, Lucas, Pablo M., and Revilla, Eloy
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COMPARATIVE studies , *BIOLOGICAL extinction , *ANIMAL species , *ANIMAL behavior , *STATISTICAL matching , *LIFE history theory - Abstract
1. Comparative analyses are used to address the key question of what makes a species more prone to extinction by exploring the links between vulnerability and intrinsic species' traits and/or extrinsic factors. This approach requires comprehensive species data but information is rarely available for all species of interest. As a result comparative analyses often rely on subsets of relatively few species that are assumed to be representative samples of the overall studied group. 2. Our study challenges this assumption and quantifies the taxonomic, spatial, and data type biases associated with the quantity of data available for 5415 mammalian species using the freely available life-history database PanTHERIA. 3. Moreover, we explore how existing biases influence results of comparative analyses of extinction risk by using subsets of data that attempt to correct for detected biases. In particular, we focus on links between four species' traits commonly linked to vulnerability (distribution range area, adult body mass, population density and gestation length) and conduct univariate and multivariate analyses to understand how biases affect model predictions. 4. Our results show important biases in data availability with c.22% of mammals completely lacking data. Missing data, which appear to be not missing at random, occur frequently in all traits (14-99% of cases missing). Data availability is explained by intrinsic traits, with larger mammals occupying bigger range areas being the best studied. Importantly, we find that existing biases affect the results of comparative analyses by overestimating the risk of extinction and changing which traits are identified as important predictors. 5. Our results raise concerns over our ability to draw general conclusions regarding what makes a species more prone to extinction. Missing data represent a prevalent problem in comparative analyses, and unfortunately, because data are not missing at random, conventional approaches to fill data gaps, are not valid or present important challenges. These results show the importance of making appropriate inferences from comparative analyses by focusing on the subset of species for which data are available. Ultimately, addressing the data bias problem requires greater investment in data collection and dissemination, as well as the development of methodological approaches to effectively correct existing biases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2012
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6. Accelerating and standardising IUCN Red List assessments with sRedList.
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Cazalis, Victor, Di Marco, Moreno, Zizka, Alexander, Butchart, Stuart H.M., González-Suárez, Manuela, Böhm, Monika, Bachman, Steven P., Hoffmann, Michael, Rosati, Ilaria, De Leo, Francesco, Jung, Martin, Benítez-López, Ana, Clausnitzer, Viola, Cardoso, Pedro, Brooks, Thomas M., Mancini, Giordano, Lucas, Pablo M., Young, Bruce E., Akçakaya, H. Reşit, and Schipper, Aafke M.
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ENDANGERED species , *WEB-based user interfaces , *BIODIVERSITY conservation , *HABITAT selection , *ONLINE education - Abstract
The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species underpins much decision-making in conservation and plays a key role in monitoring the status and trends of biodiversity. However, the shortage of funds and assessor capacity slows the uptake of novel data and techniques, hampering its currency, applicability, consistency and long-term viability. To help address this, we developed sRedList, a user-friendly online platform that assists Red List assessors through a step-by-step process to estimate key parameters in a standardised and reproducible fashion. Through the platform, assessors can swiftly generate outputs including species' range maps, lists of countries of occurrence, lower and upper bounds of area of occupancy, habitat preferences, trends in area of habitat, and levels of fragmentation. sRedList is compliant with the IUCN Red List guidelines and outputs are interoperable with the Species Information Service (SIS; the IUCN Red List database) in support of global, regional and national assessments and reassessments. sRedList can also help assessors prioritise species for reassessment. sRedList was released in October 2023, with a complete documentation package (including text documentation, 'cheatsheets', and 15 video tutorials), and will soon be highlighted in the official Red List online training course. sRedList will help to bridge the gap between extinction risk research and Red List assessment practice, increase the taxonomic coverage and consistency of assessments, and ensure the IUCN Red List is up-to-date to best support conservation policy and practice across the world. • While central in conservation, the Red List faces major challenges to expand and update. • Methods aiming to support assessors with automated tools remain mostly academic exercises. • sRedList was developed to bridge that gap and make science easily accessible to Red List assessors. • It enables compiling information and calculating key parameters of Red List assessments. • sRedList will help to make the Red List more complete, up-to-date, and standardised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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