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This paper adopts a target zone approach to analyse and interpret the current phase of slowdown, if not retreat, of economic globalisation. A 'honeymoon' emerges when a credible limit is imposed on its economic and social costs. Conversely, if the upper cost threshold is not set credibly, a 'divorce' from economic globalisation emerges earlier than if no target is taken into account. Such a second case represents the recent events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the current phase of backlash of economic globalization using a target zone approach in an environment populated by heterogeneous agents. The target zone analysis suggests that there may be a positive expectation effect (a 'honeymoon') when the social costs are credibly expected to remain below the benefits arising from globalization. In such a situation, the latter proceeds even beyond the level that society would be willing to accept in the absence of a such a target. When the costs are expected to exceed the benefits, instead, the opposite phenomenon (a 'divorce') arises. While in the case of exchange rates or interest rates, the passage from 'honeymoon' to 'divorce' might well occur with a discrete jump of the respective variable, rather than gradually, this is not the case when considering economic and social costs. Graduality is obtained thanks to the introduction of the hypothesis of heterogeneous agents. The proportion of those who think that the costs of globalization exceed the benefits increases with globalization and the 'honeymoon", then, gradually turns into a 'divorce'. Government's redistributive intervention to compensate the losers, however, could reduce the costs of globalization, thereby delaying or even preventing its crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the dynamic effects of consumption externalities in Bosi and Seegmuller (J Math Econ 46:475–492, 2010). We show that only the patient agent holds the entire capital stock at the steady state, while the impatient agent works to finance his consumption. Our main result states that consumption externalities represent the main mechanism that explains the emergence of endogenous fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations. Finally, consumption externalities promote the appearance of deterministic cycles of period two. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that dependence on foreign energy can increase economic instability by raising the likelihood of equilibrium indeterminacy, hence making it easier for fluctuations driven by self-fulfilling expectations to occur. This is demonstrated in a standard neoclassical growth model. Calibration exercises, based on the estimated share of imported energy in production for several countries, show that the degree of reliance on foreign energy for many countries can easily make an otherwise determinate and stable economy indeterminate and unstable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article highlights the spread of bank panics across countries, as the public reassesses governments' propensity to bailouts. Policymakers decide whether to save collapsing banking systems by weighing social costs of crises against the costs associated with raising taxes to finance rescue packages. Policymakers know those social costs of bank liquidation whereas the public does not. In this setup, financial crises may result from the public's self-fulfilling prophecies about equilibrium outcomes, as lenders' expectations impinge on the taxation cost of bailouts. It follows that a banking crisis in a country leads creditors to reexamine policymakers' willingness to bailouts in other countries, which eventually makes their banks more vulnerable to self-confirming depositors' runs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An extensive literature discusses the existence of a virtuous circle of expectations that might lead communities to Pareto-superior states among multiple potential equilibria. It is generally accepted that such multiplicity stems fundamentally from the presence of positive agglomeration externalities. We examine a two-sector model in this class and look for intertemporal perfect foresight equilibria. It turns out that under some plausible conditions, positive externalities must coexist with external diseconomies elsewhere in the model, for there to exist equilibria that break free of historical initial conditions. Our main distinguishing assumption is that the positive agglomeration externalities appear with a time lag (that can be made vanishingly small). Then, in the absence of external diseconomies elsewhere, the long-run behaviour of the economy resembles that predicted by myopic adjustment. This finding is independent of the degree of forward-looking behavior exhibited by the agents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]