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Kazakhstan’s economy faces the challenge of adjusting to a large terms-of-trade shock in a context of declining domestic and external demand. The authorities responded to the collapse of global oil prices through a rapid fiscal adjustment followed by corresponding monetary and exchange-rate policy adjustments. A difficult external environment will continue to affect Kazakhstan’s medium-term outlook. In the medium term, the economy continues to face significant downside risks, including the possibility of delays in Kashagan offshore oil production or a protracted recession in Russia and a further slowdown in China. Over the longer term, diversification of the economy will be required to increase its resilience to external shocks.

This report highlights recent economic updates in Bangladesh as of April 2015. Economic growth in Bangladesh was gaining momentum in the first half of FY15. Capacity utilization improved and investments were showing some signs of recovery. This growth was also job-friendly. The 12-monthly-moving average inflation decelerated from 7.6 percent in February 2014 to 6.8 percent in February 2015. The resilience of the Bangladesh economy continues to be tested by faltering political stability, weak global markets, and structural constraints. These are inhibiting the economy s income growth as well as progress on shared prosperity. Despite the emergence of a $1.3 billion deficit in the current account in the first seven months of FY15, the surplus in the overall balance of payments has been sustained, leading to continued accumulation of official foreign exchange reserves to prevent nominal exchange rate appreciation. Reserves are at a comfortable level at over 6 months of imports of goods and services. Fiscal policy has remained consistent with macroeconomic stability. Tax revenue growth has been weaker than targeted while expenditure have also been short due as usual to an implementation shortfall. The projected recovery in global growth, particularly in the United States and the Euro Zone, and continued softness in international commodity prices, bode well for Bangladesh. The country will need to restore political stability and implement faster structural reforms to capitalize on these opportunities. The potential GDP growth rate is on a declining path due to declining labor force growth and stagnant productivity growth, as well as the rate of capital accumulation. Raising the low Female Labor Force Participation (FLFP) rate offers on opportunity to boost the economy s potential growth rate. Moving forward, the biggest challenge remains ensuring durable political stability. This is a precondition for accelerated, inclusive, and sustainable growth.

The informal sector is typically characterized as being very heterogeneous and possibly composed of two clearly distinct segments, sometimes called the lower and upper tier. However, empirical evidence shows that even among lower tier entrepreneur's profitability can be quite high. The authors combine these findings and develop an innovative approach to identify what is called constrained gazelles, next to the well-known survivalists in the lower tier and growth-oriented top-performers in the upper tier. The sample of informal entrepreneurs in seven West-African countries allows linking the relative size of these three groups to the structural and macroeconomic environment in these countries.

This technical note on access to finance addresses six questions: 1) what is the access to and use of financial services in the Philippines, how does it vary, and how does it compare to other countries? 2) What financial services are available to different market segments? 3) How do different categories of financial institutions contribute to outreach, and what is their potential to expand outreach? 4) How does the regulatory environment support access to finance? 5) What financial infrastructure is available to make credit decisions? 6) What are the results of government policies or programs to promote access to financial services? The note concludes with recommendations to improve access to finance. An estimated 30 percent of Filipinos use formal financial services. This is lower than the East Asia region average. Access to finance has improved since the 2002 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). The provision of financial services to low-income individuals has expanded. The Philippines has received international recognition for its favorable regulatory policies to promote pioneering use of mobile payments technology and its microfinance regulatory framework.

This paper investigates the patterns of capital entry barriers and capital returns in informal Micro and Small Enterprises (MSE's) using a unique micro data set seven West-African countries. The author's findings support the view of a heterogeneous informal sector that is not primarily host to subsistence activities. While an assessment of initial investment identifies some informal activities with negligible entry barriers, a notable cost of entry is associated to most activities. The authors find very heterogeneous patterns of capital returns in informal MSE's. At very low levels of capital, marginal returns are extremely high- often exceeding 70 percent per month. Above a capital stock of 150 international dollars, marginal returns are found to be relatively low at around 4 to 7 percent monthly. The authors provide some evidence that the high returns at low capital stocks reflect high risks. At the same time, most MSE's appear to be severely capital constrained.

Indonesia’s Kecamatan Development Project (KDP) began in 1998 and is implemented through the Ministry of Home Affairs, Community Development Office (PMD). KDP aims to alleviate poverty and improve local governance. The Project provides block grants of approximately USD 56,000 to USD 111, 000 to sub-districts (kecamatan). Villagers engage in a participatory planning and decision-making process to allocate those resources for their self-defined development needs and priorities. KDP is one of the largest community development projects in Indonesia, implemented in 29 of Indonesia’s 32 provinces. Field reports state that local governments in several parts of the country have initiated KDP replication or ‘spin off’ projects funded through their own budgets. These projects purport to replicate KDP to varying degrees. The main goal of this study is to examine in greater depth ten KDP replication schemes and to assess the extent to which they adopt certain principles and programmatic features of KDP. This study is important as an initial step to gain insight into how KDP’s principles and procedures may be influencing other government development projects especially in the areas of improved governance, community capacity building, and service delivery.

Microfinance supports mainly informal activities that often have a low return and low market demand. It may therefore be hypothesized that the aggregate poverty impact of microfinance is modest or even nonexistent. If true, the poverty impact of microfinance observed at the participant level represents either income redistribution or short run income generation from the microfinance intervention. This article examines the effects of microfinance on poverty reduction at both the participant and the aggregate levels using panel data from Bangladesh. The results suggest that access to microfinance contributes to poverty reduction, especially for female participants, and to overall poverty reduction at the village level. Microfinance thus helps not only poor participants but also the local economy.