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This study aims to determine the money supply, interest rates and exchange rates against inflation. This research data uses secondary data with the time series method obtained from the North Maluku Bank Indonesia (BI) and North Maluku Central Statistics Agency (BPS) from 2010-2020. The method used in this research is multiple linear regression. Based on the results of the study showed that the simultaneous testing showed that of the three variables, there was no effect. Based on the above findings that inflation is mostly influenced by interest rates, if interest rates rise it will increase inflation. Because interest rates have the most dominant contribution in increasing inflation, therefore the monetary authority must try to maintain interest rates for inflation stability.

Copyright of Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan is the property of Universitas Airlangga and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The study investigates the external influences on Korea’s monetary policy over the period from 1990 to 2020. The focus is on the effects of US interest rates, payments imbalances and exchange rate changes on Korean monetary policy. The estimation of the Taylor rule measures the effects on Korean interest rates and the estimation of sterilization/ offset coefficients measures the effects on the domestic money supply and monetary base. This study measures the sterilization/offset equations and compares the results with the ones from Koo (2004) which examines the Taylor rule study. The empirical tests of both studies reveal two key findings: (1) Korean monetary policy has been influenced by monetary developments in the US, but it still has had a good deal of independence. (2) The exchange rate plays a crucial role for the BOK in achieving independent monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences is the property of Republic of Iraq Ministry of Higher Education & Scientific Research (MOHESR) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper theoretically examines the effect of an expansionary monetary policy on export quality and its ramifications on the aggregate employment of the unskilled workers in a competitive general equilibrium framework of a small open economy. Monetary policies are often pursued by the central bank of an economy to manage exchange rate fluctuations under a managed float regime, which may have adverse consequences for export-quality choices and thereby for export growth given the growing preference of buyers in richer nations for higher qualities of imports. Under optimal allocation of wealth over a portfolio of cash, domestic assets and foreign assets, we show that an increase in the domestic money supply affects the choice of export-quality through larger investment, capital formation and consequent endowment effect and through changes in the nominal exchange rate. Under less price-elastic demand for a non-traded good, export quality is upgraded when quality upgrading is relatively capital (than skill) intensive. The expansionary monetary policy may raise aggregate employment of unskilled workers due to larger investment and capital formation, but may lower it through changes in the quality of the export good. The overall effect is thus ambiguous. A larger initial size of bequests has a similar effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of BES Journal: International Journal of Business & Economic Studies is the property of BES Journal - International Journal of Business & Economic Studies and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This article examines the challenges that Algerian economic policy has faced in a globalized world from 2000 to 2022 using a VAR model to identify causal relationships between different variables. The results reveal that the Economic Competitiveness Index, Foreign Direct Investments, the exchange rate, money supply, and public expenditures had a positive and significant impact on economic growth in Algeria, while public debt had a negative effect. These findings underscore the crucial importance of balanced management of various economic policy variables to achieve sustainable economic growth in Algeria. They also emphasize the need for policymakers to consider these relationships both in the short and long term when designing and implementing economic policies aimed at promoting the country's economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Any global economic and financial disturbance affects trade and capital flows of our economy through exchange rate movements. The portfolio balance (PB) approach considers the capital flows as an additional variable explaining the exchange rate movements. This approach assumes domestic and foreign bonds to be imperfect substitutes. The bonds bearing high risk carry comparatively higher return in the form of risk premium. This study attempts to re-examine the empirical soundness of the PB model in respect of Indian rupee/ US dollar (INR/US $) exchange rate. It covers the period from 2000: 1 to 2023:1. Augmented Dickey Fuller test and Phillip Perron tests are used to test stationarity property of the variables. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) methodology of regression is used for the purpose of estimation. Autocorrelation problem is dealt with by using the Cochrane Orcutt procedure. The PB model is estimated in naïve form as well as in partial adjustment form. The empirical finding shows that the PB model works well in partial adjustment framework rather than in its naïve form with speed of adjustment being three to four quarters. The money supply differential and relative real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are identified as significant variables whereas the bond holding variable remained insignificant. However, in the long run, the model did not work. It is suggested that the fiscal and monetary policies that enhance capital spending in productive sectors should be implemented to achieve a gradually appreciating exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The lack of direct and indirect instruments and the features of the Cuban monetary and financial environment have implicated the need to base the monetary policy on the use of nominal anchors for price stabilization. This article has the objective of analyzing the relevance of the official exchange rate, the money supply, and the regulated prices as nominal anchors since the economic system reformation of the early 1990s. With this objective in mind, the analysis provided by the article is divided into two sections. In the first, the use of the main nominal anchors in the macroeconomic stabilization carried out in the period 1990–2010 is evaluated. In the second, the factors that explain the loss of the main nominal anchors in the period 2011–2022 are examined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To study the key determinants of chronically high inflation in Iran. Design/methodology/approach: Relying on annual data from 1978 to 2019, the authors employ an Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Error Correction Model (ECM) to study the inflationary effects of monetary and fiscal policies as well as exchange rate swings and sanctions intensification. Findings: The authors find that increase in money supply, depreciation of nominal exchange rate, increase in fiscal deficit and intensification of sanctions are among the key drivers of inflation in Iran. Their impact is profound in the long run, but in the short run only money supply and currency depreciation are significant. Also, when exploring the inflation in different components of Consumer Price Index (CPI), we find robust long- and short-run effects from money supply and exchange rate, while the effects of fiscal deficit and sanctions vary across different components. Originality/value: The authors contribute to the literature by setting apart the long-vs short-run effects of key variables on inflation in Iran. The authors also employ improved measures of fiscal deficit and sanctions that are shown to be of significance in the long run. Lastly, the authors go beyond the aggregate index and examine the variations in different CPI components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exchange rate (EXR) stability is crucial for especially the developing economies. This study examines the macroeconomic variables which affect EXR in member countries of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). To do the analyses, data from 1981 to 2019 was relied upon. To estimate the long-run coefficients, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) is incorporated. The outcomes of FMOLS exhibit that the variables such as trade, inflation, GDP, total debt services, trade openness, and tariff rate are inversely related to EXR while broad money is found to affect the EXR in positive. As a policy prospect, The Central Bank (CB) is needed to follow tight monetary policy to curtail liquidity of money in economy. It is recommended that CB to discourage government project financing that is to cause increase in money supply but to initiate trendline to facilitate GDP growth, trade, and imposition of tariff to curtail rising EXR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ghanaian economy has been faced with persistent fiscal deficits over the years and this affects other macroeconomic variables like inflation. This study therefore empirically examines the effect of fiscal deficit on inflation in Ghana. The study deployed a quantitative research design technique, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration test, and vector error correction models using annual data spanning 1976 to 2019 with 44 observations. Findings revealed that there is a significant and negative short and long-run relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation in Ghana, with unidirectional causality running from inflation to fiscal deficit. The study recommends that the Government of Ghana should endeavour to finance fiscal deficits mostly through external sources and non-banking methods like the issuance of bonds at the foreign financial market since non-banking borrowing has low inflationary effects.

Purpose – This study aims to examine the symmetric and asymmetric impact of external debt on inflation in Sudan from 1970 to 2020 within a multivariate framework by including money supply and the nominal effective exchange rate as additional inflation determinants. Design/methodology/approach – The authors utilize an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the symmetric impact of external debt on inflation, while the asymmetric impact is examined using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model. The existence of a long-run relationship between inflation and external debt is tested using the bounds-testing approach to cointegration, and a vector error-correction model is estimated to determine the short parameters of equilibrium dynamics. Findings – The linear ARDL model results show that external debt has no statistically significant impact on inflation in the long run. On the contrary, the results of the NARDL model show that positive and negative external debt shocks statistically affect inflation in the long run. The estimated long-run elasticity coefficients of the linear and nonlinear ARDL models reveal that the domestic money supply has a statistically significant positive impact on inflation. In contrast, the nominal effective exchange rate has a statistically significant negative impact on inflation. Practical implications – The reliance on symmetric analysis may not be sufficient to uncover the existence of a linkage between external debt and inflation. Proper external debt management is crucial to control inflation rates in Sudan. Originality/value – To date, no empirical study has assessed the external debt-inflation nexus and its potential asymmetry in Sudan, and the current study aims to fill this gap in the literature.

This study aims to analyze the effects of money supply on exchange rate in Indonesia and to investigate whether there is an application of the Dornbusch Overshooting Model. The Autoregressive Distributed-Lag (ARDL) method is used to analyze short-term and long-term effects and uses time-series data from 2000:Q1 to 2021:Q4. The results of this study show that the long-term coefficient of the money supply has a smaller effect on the depreciating exchange rate than the short-term coefficient. Based on the estimation results, it can be concluded that there is an application of the Dornbusch Overshooting Model in Indonesia. A further implication of this research is that the factors that influence exchange rate fluctuations are of great concern in an effort to maintain exchange rate stability. For example, growth in the money supply because a 1 percent change in the money supply results in a change of more than 1 percent in the exchange rate. In addition to the money supply, other variables such as inflation and interest rates also have a large influence on changes in exchange rates and have different magnitudes of influence in the short and long-run.

AbstractFinancial stability is one of the main factors for a country’s economic sustainability nowadays. Financial instability has adverse effects on the economy which can lead to the financial crisis. This research tries to answer how monetary policy related to Indonesian financial stability in the short and long term, how specific the relations between its parts such as money supply, interest rate, and exchange rate to indonesian financial stability, and which one of these parts that have ways more effective to influence Indonesian financial stability. This research data use time series quarterly as quantitative data in Indonesia. By employing econometric models of error correction on quarter data that consist of the stationary stochastic process, long-run model and cointegration approach and error correction model, this model can indicate how quickly the effect of the money supply, interest rate or exchange rate is fully accepted by the financial stability in the short term. The finding of this study showed that the increase in interest rate began to be able to improve indonesian financial stability responsively in four times the period, namely an increase of one percent in interest rate could increase 0.4161 percent of financial stability in Indonesia.

This paper investigates the correlation between Nigeria's government expenditure and inflation rate within a multivariate framework from 1970-2020. Data sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics, the Central Bank of Nigeria and the World Bank were utilized for this investigation. To ascertain if there exists any relationship among the variables, in the long run, the ARDL test was used. From the result, a long-run relationship exists between the variables in the model; the influence of government expenditure on the inflation rate in the short and long run is negative and insignificant, while that of exchange rate on the inflation rate is positive and insignificant in both periods; the influence of money supply on inflation rate both in the short and long run is positive and significant. Consequently, the research proposed that more government expenditure should go into productive activities, thus, boosting aggregate production in the economy as this tends to reduce the level of inflation. Furthermore, the increase in money supply has to be incessantly moderated by the CBN as a result of its ability to cause needless inflationary pressures in the Nigerian economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims: to determine and analyze the effect of Exchange Rate, Money Supply, and BI Rate on Inflation and the impact of Inflation itself on People’s Purchasing Power. This study uses: a decriptive correlational reserach design with a case study method and through a quantitative approach. This study uses time series data from 1995 to 2019. The data source is secondary data obtained from Bank Indonesia and Badan Pusat Statistik. Data analysis using path analysis method using SMART PLS 3 program. The test results: show that the Exchange Rate has a significant effect on Inflation with a significance of 0,000 < 0,05. The Money Supply has a significant effect on Inflation with a significance of 0,000 < 0,05. BI Rate has a significant effect on Inflation with a significance 0,006 < 0,05. Inflation has a significant effect on People’s Purchasing Power with a significancne of 0,003 < 0,05. Penelitian ini bertujuan: untuk mengetahui dan menganalisis pengaruh Nilai Tukar, Uang Beredar, dan BI Rate terhadap Inflasi serta pengaruh Inflasi itu sendiri terhadap Daya Beli Masyarakat. Metodelogi penelitian ini: menggunakan rancangan penelitian korelasional dekriptif dengan metode studi kasus dan melalui pendekatan kuantitatif. Penelitian ini menggunakan data time series dari tahun 1995-2019. Sumber data adalah data sekunder yang diperoleh dari Bank Indonesia dan Badan Pusat Statistik. Analisis data menggunakan metode analisis jalur menggunakan program SMART PLS 3. Temuan Penelitian: menunjukkan bahwa Nilai Tukar berpengaruh signifikan terhadap Inflasi dengan signifikansi 0,000 < 0,05. Jumlah Uang Beredar berpengaruh signifikan terhadap Inflasi dengan signifikansi 0,000 < 0,05. BI Rate berpengaruh signifikan terhadap Inflasi dengan signifikansi 0,006 < 0,05. Inflasi berpengaruh signifikan terhadap Daya Beli Rakyat dengan signifikansi sebesar 0,003 < 0,05.

This paper empirically estimates Fiji's bilateral equilibrium real exchange rate with two of its key trading partners, the US and Australia. Applying the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach, we estimate the equilibrium exchange rate by considering the productivity differential, real interest rate differential, net foreign assets, money supply, and terms of trade. Using monthly data from March 2011 to September 2022 and a system approach to cointegration, a strong relationship between the real exchange rate and its fundamentals is found, but importance of factors differed by trading partner. Our findings show that the Fijian Dollar has been undervalued against both US Dollar and Australian Dollar in recent years, but to varying degrees. Our analysis underlines the importance of assessing bilateral exchange rate misalignments in basket pegs when devising exchange rate policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Social Sciences Research / Sosyal Bilimler Arastirmalari Dergisi is the property of ODU Journal of Social Sciences Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

A growing body of recent literature identifies the exchange rate as an important determinant of demand for money along with income and interest rate, but these studies assume the symmetric effect of exchange rate on demand for money. In contrast, this study argues that the exchange rate can have an asymmetric effect on money demand. Therefore, we estimate the symmetric and asymmetric impact of real effective exchange rate on demand for money from 1974 to 2019 for Pakistan using the symmetric and asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). The estimated symmetric ARDL model shows insignificant impact of the real effective exchange rate on demand for money while the asymmetric ARDL results show that the impact of currency depreciation on money demand is positive and significant, suggesting substitution effect. Moreover, the stability of the money demand function highlights the role of monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the two main dynamics of inflation, defined as demand-pull and cost-push inflation, are analyzed for the Turkish economy. Based on the fact that this basic dynamic in inflation may vary, the empirical structure of the study was created by taking into account the structural break in inflation. According to the empirical findings, it was concluded that the dynamics of inflation changed with the structural break in inflation. In terms of the Turkish economy, while demand-pull inflation was observed in the pre-structural break period when the domestic currency was appreciated. Cost-push inflation was more effective in the post-structural break period when the domestic currency was relatively depreciated due to the pass-through effect. Empirical findings show that after the structural break in inflation, a structural process was experienced in the Turkish economy in which money supply did not cause inflation. As it is known, the transfer of wealth from the lower income group to the higher income group accelerates during periods of high inflation. The insufficiency of effective demand, which decreases with the deepening of income inequality, also provides evidence for the fact that the money supply is not inflationary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial stability is one of the main factors for a country's economic sustainability nowadays. Financial instability has adverse effects on the economy which can lead to the financial crisis. This research tries to answer how monetary policy related to Indonesian financial stability in the short and long term, how specific the relations between its parts such as money supply, interest rate, and exchange rate to indonesian financial stability, and which one of these parts that have ways more effective to influence Indonesian financial stability. This research data use time series quarterly as quantitative data in Indonesia. By employing econometric models of error correction on quarter data that consist of the stationary stochastic process, long-run model and cointegration approach and error correction model, this model can indicate how quickly the effect of the money supply, interest rate or exchange rate is fully accepted by the financial stability in the short term. The finding of this study showed that the increase in interest rate began to be able to improve indonesian financial stability responsively in four times the period, namely an increase of one percent in interest rate could increase 0.4161 percent of financial stability in Indonesia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In spite of the vital role played by the stock exchange market in the overall national development, it is still performing below expectations in Nigeria owing to several macroeconomic factors. The main objective of this study is to investigate the effects of selected macroeconomic variables on stock market performance in Nigeria. The study employed time-series data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s statistical bulletin and World Development Indicators. Stock market performance was measured using the all-shares index while the identified macroeconomic variables included GDP growth, broad money supply, exchange rate, savings interest rate, and inflation rate. An Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) estimation technique was used to establish the long run relationship among the variables, and it was revealed that a long run relationship existed among the variables in the estimated model. The result shows that macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product, broad money supply, exchange rate, and savings interest rate have a positive effect on stock market performance in Nigeria. On the other hand, the results showed that the inflation rate has a negative effect on stock market performance in Nigeria. Predicated on the result, the study recommended that policies to increase gross domestic product, exchange rate, interest rate, and money supply should be implemented because they can lead to an improvement in the performance of the stock market, while the inflation rate should be maintained at a single digit to prevent its negative effect on the performance of the stock market in Nigeria.

The manufacturing industry is the main supporting sector for the economy, considering its enormous contribution to Indonesia’s national GDP compared to other sectors. However, the economic problems lately have resulted in a decline in Indonesia’s economic conditions, which is marked by a reduction in national GDP and a decrease in the output of the Indonesian manufacturing industry sector. Thus, this study aims to analyze the effect of the complex variables in the current economy, namely inflation, exchange rates, labor, and the money supply, on the manufacturing industry sector in Indonesia in the long and short term. This study uses the ECM (error correction model) method in empirical testing. The data used is secondary time series data (quarterly) starting from 2011:Q1 – 2020:Q4; the data obtained comes from the Central Statistics Agency, Bank Indonesia, and the Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia. This study uses the Eviews10 application as an analytical tool. The analysis results conducted in this study show that the exchange rate and labor have a positive and significant influence on the manufacturing industry sector in the long and short term. The money supply has a positive and significant effect on the manufacturing industry sector in the long term only. Meanwhile, inflation has a negative but not significant effect both in the long term and short term. Of these critical variables, labor has the most crucial influence on the manufacturing industry sector. Therefore, the government needs to pay attention to policies related to labor as the main factor in increasing the output of the manufacturing industry.

Macroeconomics remains an evolving science, but the goals of macroeconomic policy are consistent around the world. These include price stability, currency stability, unemployment, the balance of payments, and growth output. This study X-rayed the link between Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) which was considered a measure of growth output, Exchange Rate (EXR), Inflation Rate (IFR) and Money Supply (M2) for the current republic in Nigeria. The objectives of the study include: examining the short-run and long-run impact of growth output (RGDP) on EXR, IFR and M2 in Nigeria. A secondary source of data collection was employed for the study. The tools employed for data analysis include the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Jarque-Bera test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Co-integration technique, and the error correction parameterization of the ARDL model. The result of the Jarque-Bera test showed that the variables were approximately normally distributed. The findings showed that growth output (RGDP) was cointegrated with EXR, IFR and M2 and the existence of a long-run relationship amongst the variables. The study concludes that while seeking to foster economic growth, Nigerian banks should commit to their mandate of price stability and improve their regulatory framework to ensure a strong financial sector with effective intermediation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates trade balance determinants in post-liberalization India from 1991 to 2020. The main aim of this study is to test the validity of the J-curve and Marshal-Lerner condition and examine the impact of other related macroeconomic variables, including foreign income, exchange rate, domestic prices, and domestic demand on the country's trade balance. To achieve this objective, bounds tests and error correction model within asymmetric and symmetrical framework was used for estimation. In addition, variance decomposition analysis was applied to examine the dynamic interaction of selected variables. The results indicate the absence of the 'J-curve' effect and 'Marshall-Lerner' condition in India. Further, the results indicate that domestic prices, domestic demand, and money supply have negative signs, whereas exchange rate and world demand have positive signs in the long and short-run. The results from the variance decomposition indicate that as compared to other variables, the exchange rate highly contributes to forecasting error variance of trade balance in the case of India [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses the role of monetary, fiscal factors, and trade openness causing variations of nominal and real interest rates in India for the deregulated regime. The autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration finds that deposit rate, lending rate, and real interest rate have long‐run associations with the monetary, fiscal policy instruments, and trade openness. The error correction model representation of the ARDL framework finds that the broad money supply negatively impacts the deposit rate and the real interest rate, while positive impacts of income on each of the three interest rates are noticed. The fiscal deficit has a significant short‐term negative impact on the deposit rate and has a positive impact on the real interest rate. The exchange rate and openness to trade lower interest rates. The econometric appraisal may be perceptive to keep interest rate in the desired trail through the judicious adjustments of the policy instruments and deficit management. The significant impact of openness to trade on interest rates is a critical issue that the macroeconomic policy may face more challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, the research team employed a VECM regression model to evaluate the relationship between money supply and inflation rate (INF) in Egypt from 1990 to 2019. The model includes four independent variables: money supply (MS), imports (IMP), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and exchange rate (EXCH). A Johansen-Juselius co-integration test and a Vector Error Correction Model were used to determine the existence of long-term and short-term links between the variables. The results demonstrated the existence of co-integrating links between the variables. Aside from the effects of GDP, all independent factors had a positive effect on the inflation rate. Depending on the results, the money supply is the primary long-term predictor of the inflation rate in Egypt.

Objective: The objective of the article is to measure the magnitude of the long-term exchange rate price and output effects in the Central and Eastern European countries (plus Turkey and Russia) which practice flexible exchange rate policies, while controlling for the institutional quality and policy stance as measured by the Index of Economic Freedom (IEF) from the Heritage Foundation database. Research Design & Methods: To analyse long-term price and output effects, the anticipated value of a nominal effective exchange rate was used as obtained by the ARIMA (n,m) model. We analysed the relationships between selected macroeconomic variables with the panel DOLS model using quarterly data from 2002 to 2019. Individual country estimates were provided as well. The study considered alternative specifications for regression models, with control for the money supply and institutional developments. Findings: Our study revealed that anticipated depreciation of the exchange rate was associated with the incomplete exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into consumer prices and a decrease in output, with the former becoming stronger over the low-inflationary 2010-2019 period. Among other results, there was a trade-off between price and output effects of the money supply. As expected, investments in physical capital were the factor behind higher output. Finally, liberalisation efforts as proxied with the IEF were inflationary and contractionary. Implications & Recommendations: It was demonstrated that policies aimed at gradual strengthening of local currencies could be helpful for both acceleration of output growth and containment of inflation in the long run. At the same time, it is not recommended to proceed with further liberalisation of regulatory environment, as it seems not to bring about any favourable output effects while contributing to higher consumer prices. Contribution & Value Added: The novelty of this study is the estimation of the long-term price and output effects of the anticipated exchange rate while controlling for institutional quality and the progress of market reforms as measured by the IEF. The findings may serve as suggestions for reliable exchange rate policy, with a focus on predictability and the long-term macroeconomic effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The significance of trade in the development of nations made this study examine the impact of trade balance, exchange rate, and money supply on economic growth with reference to Nigeria's economy and serve as a lesson for other African countries. The study relies on the Mundell-Fleming BOP model for its framework with the use of secondary time-series data extracted from the statistical bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria from 1981 to 2020. The ARDL cointegration of the least square was adopted and the result showed a long-term relationship among trade balance, exchange rate, broad money supply, interest rate, inflation rate, and economic growth in Nigeria. Our study thus concludes that the oil trade balance is the fundamental driver of Nigeria's economic growth and appropriately, we suggested that to ensure economic growth in Nigeria and other African countries; the government should strategize on policies to develop trade in the non-oil sector; also the monetary authorities should design frameworks towards making money supply growth enhancer, and stabilization of the exchange rate for domestic countries to gain more from trade by intensifying the flux of credit to the real and exporting sector towards setting the economies on the track of expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Accounting & Financial Studies Journal is the property of Republic of Iraq Ministry of Higher Education & Scientific Research (MOHESR) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Based on the analysis of national and foreign scientific literature, the paper determines the main parameters of financial stability at the macro level, taking into account the characteristics of the economy of the Republic of Belarus. These parameters include the level of inflation, exchange rates, the level of dollarization of the economy, interest rate, the balance of external trade, the state of the economic entities' finances, as well as financial soundness indicators developed by the International Monetary Fund. The quantitative assessment of the inter-linkages between these parameters was carried out: a correlation matrix and regression models are constructed. The study used official statistical information published by the National Bank and the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus on a monthly, quarterly and annual basis for 2000-2019.

The significance of trade in developing nations made this study examine the impact of trade balance, exchange rate, and money supply on economic growth with reference to Nigeria's economy and serve as a lesson for other African countries. The study relies on the Mundell-Fleming BOP model for its framework with the use of secondary time-series data extracted from the statistical bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria from 1981 to 2020. The ARDL cointegration of the least square was adopted. The result showed a long-term relationship among trade balance, exchange rate, broad money supply, interest rate, inflation rate, and economic growth in Nigeria. Our study thus concludes that the oil trade balance is the fundamental driver of Nigeria's economic growth. Appropriately, we suggested that to ensure economic growth in Nigeria and other African countries. The government should strategise on policies to develop trade in the non-oil sector. Also, the monetary authorities should design frameworks towards making money supply growth enhancers and stabilising the exchange rate for domestic countries to gain more from trade by intensifying the flux of credit to the real and exporting sector towards setting the economies on the track of expansion.

Copyright of Kastamonu University Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences Faculty / Kastamonu Üniversitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi is the property of Kastamonu University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of demographic changes on inflation in Turkey. Although there is no direct theoretical explanation about the effects of changes in demographic structure on inflation, studies on the effect of changes in demographic structure on inflation in the national and international literature draw attention. In this study, the effects of demographic structure on inflation in Turkey were investigated by ARDL method. According to the findings of this study covering the years 1971-2020, while the dependent elderly population affects inflation as negatively in the long term, the dependent young population, exchange rate and money supply affect inflation as positively. According to the error correction model, it has been determined that a shock will be eliminated rate of 60% in the short term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Philippines is a country that has been experiencing a gradual rise in inflation in the past decades, and this affects the prices of goods and services, therefore decreasing the currency's purchasing power. The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between Inflation and selected economic indicators, such as Unemployment Rate, Money Supply, Policy Rate, and Exchange Rate, based on time series quarterly data from the year 2003 to 2020 in the Philippines. This effect was investigated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration technique. The results showed that Inflation, which is the rate of increase in prices over a given period in the Philippines, has a significant positive relationship with the Policy rate in the short run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper has investigated the shocks effects of inflation, money supply, and exchange rate on the economies of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) from 1987 to 2019 using the Kapetanios-Shin-Snell nonlinear cointegration test, Kilian-Vigfusson asymmetric tests, and Hatemi technique that allows the estimation of Asymmetric Structural Vector Autoregressive (ASVAR) model. The findings revealed that in all the countries, the shocks effects of inflation, money supply, and exchange rate are asymmetric except in Guinea and inflation in Liberia. Furthermore, for Gambia and Nigeria, only money supply is impacting the economies, while for Ghana, Guinea, and Liberia, none of the variables is impacting the economies but for Serra Leone, money supply and exchange rate are impacting its economy. Moreover, all the countries have common sources of shocks emanating from monetary and exchange rate policies except Gambia, which is monetary policy only. Therefore, the paper recommends the members, especially Ghana, Guinea, and Liberia, a solemn effort on appropriate monetary and exchange rate policies to boost their economies. Also, since almost all the countries have common sources of shocks emanating from monetary and exchange rate policies, they can embark into the monetary integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article derives a twofold Marshall Lerner condition for money demand such that the current account may increase or decrease upon respective decrements or increments in the real exchange rate. This is noteworthy because the historic Marshall Lerner condition is such that the current account increases on account of a depreciation in the real exchange rate, yet, the current account also increases if the real exchange rate appreciates: the seeming contradiction is resolved by realizing that the current account respectively increases on account of a fundamental increment in (i) the real money supply and (ii) money demand, which increments respectively affect the real exchange rate in terms of a depreciation and an appreciation, concomitantly. The explanation advanced by the historic Marshall Lerner condition is therefore incomplete or superficial, if not ultimately misleading: the problem is hereby rectified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the efforts made by Egypt to activate and develop domestic investment and attract more FDI through enacting legislation, strengthening infrastructure, establishing industrial and economic investment zones, and trying to create an economic environment that attracts FDI, the economic returns of these measures are still not reflected in the economic sectors significantly. Its results were not clear through an improvement in the level of individual incomes or a decrease in the rates of poverty, inflation and unemployment, or an increase in the efficiency and productivity of the Egyptian economy represented by an increase in the rate of economic growth and the maximization of domestic product. As the improper use of monetary policy tools by the monetary authority motivated by control of the money supply to achieve economic balance through increased taxes and interest rates and an increase in the exchange rate led to a shrinkage in the volume of real domestic investment and a decline in incoming foreign investment. Which leads us to wonder whether monetary policy, with its tools and operational and intermediate objectives, has a positive stimulating effect on investment in general and agricultural investment in particular, as a major and influential sector in the national economy? Hence, the research aims to identify the effectiveness of monetary policy variables in attracting investment, and its impact on the Egyptian agricultural sector, the impact of monetary policy tools on agricultural investment. It was based on the research the use GARCH Model, in order to test the hypothesis of whether monetary policy, with its tools and operational and intermediate objectives, has a positive stimulating effect on investment in Egypt. The results showed the significance of the estimated model for all variables, as it was found that an increase in the total real domestic liquidity and real credit by about one billion pounds leads to an increase in investment by about 0.55 and 0.51 billion L.E each and that the decrease in the real interest rate by about 1% leads to an increase in investment. The investment is 2.3%. Relevant to the results, it is clear that despite the positive impact of credit on investment, this credit is not available due to the crowding out of the government sector with the private sector. Regarding the impact of these results on the agricultural sector, it was found from the estimation of the standard model that the real agricultural investment increased by 0.12 and 0.48 billion L.E. each, respectively, while the real interest rate and the inflation rate decreased by about 1%, which leads to an increase in real agricultural investment by about 0.34. 0.24 Billion L.E each, respectively. The research recommends the necessity of following an appropriate monetary policy to stimulate and grow domestic investment and attract foreign investment by reducing interest rates, providing credit, and not competing with the private sector in obtaining credit, and reducing inflation. With a focus on the productive sectors that are active in increasing production, such as the agricultural and industrial sectors, in order to reduce inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our study examines the impact of government stimulus spending on the US dollar's exchange rate. We apply the VECM model on US data from 1980 to 2020 with US dollar's exchange rate as the dependent variable and the quantity of domestic money supply, amount of domestic government purchases, quantity of money supplied by the foreign country (China), and the foreign country's output as independent variables. Our study finds that, while the long-run impact of US fiscal stimulus spending on the dollar's exchange rate is negative, it has no effect in the short run. Also, the coefficient associated with the errorcorrection term, ECT, is negative but insignificant at 5% significance level, which implies that any shortterm fluctuation in the US dollar's exchange rate will not be adjusted toward its long-run value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Al-Anbar University Journal of Economic & Administration Sciences is the property of Republic of Iraq Ministry of Higher Education & Scientific Research (MOHESR) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The significance, nature, and direction of the effect of inflation on economic growth and macroeconomic stability are contentious both in theory and empirical analysis. This paper examines the causal relationship between inflation and macroeconomic variables - interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, GDP, and fiscal deficit - in India, during the period 1986 to 2016, applying the vector correction (VECM) estimation method. The macro variables are stationary at first difference, and a cointegrating and causal relationship exists between the wholesale price index and interest rate, exchange rate, GDP, broad money, and gross fiscal deficit. The VECM estimates reveal that money supply and GDP are the most important macro variables in explaining the variations in inflation. The estimated error correction term shows that the shortrun disequilibrium is corrected by about 20% every period towards the long-run equilibrium. The impulse response results show that inflation responds positively to the money supply from the start to the 9th period. To promote economic growth and keep inflation low, money supply and budget deficits need to be rationalised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Economic Administrative & Legal Sciences is the property of Arab Journal of Sciences & Research Publishing (AJSRP) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)