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Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) often decay rapidly due to a decrease in moisture and energy fluxes over land when compared to the ocean surface. Occasionally, however, these cyclones maintain intensity or reintensify over land. Post-landfall maintenance and intensification of TCs over land may be a result of fluxes of moisture and energy derived from anomalously wet soils. These soils act similarly to a warm sea surface, in a phenomenon coined the "brown ocean effect." Tropical Storm (TS) Bill (2015) made landfall over a region previously moistened by anomalously heavy rainfall and displayed periods of reintensification and maintenance over land. This study evaluates the role of the brown ocean effect on the observed maintenance and intensification of TS Bill using a combination of existing and novel approaches, including the evaluation of precursor conditions at varying temporal scales and making use of composite backward trajectories. Comparisons were made to landfalling TCs with similar paths that did not undergo TC maintenance and/or intensification (TCMI) as well as to TS Erin (2007), a known TCMI case. We show that the antecedent environment prior to TS Bill was similar to other known TCMI cases, but drastically different from the non-TCMI cases analyzed in this study. Furthermore, we show that contributions of evapotranspiration to the overall water vapor budget were nonnegligible prior to TCMI cases and that evapotranspiration along storm inflow was significantly (p < 0.05) greater for TCMI cases than non-TCMI cases suggesting a potential upstream contribution from the land surface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increasing use of the term "flash drought" within the scientific community, Otkin et al. provide a general definition that identifies flash droughts based on their unusually rapid rate of intensification. This study presents an objective percentile-based methodology that builds upon that work by identifying flash droughts using standardized evaporative stress ratio (SESR) values and changes in SESR over some period of time. Four criteria are specified to identify flash droughts: two that emphasize the vegetative impacts of flash drought and two that focus on the rapid rate of intensification. The methodology was applied to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) to develop a 38-yr flash drought climatology (1979–2016) across the United States. It was found that SESR derived from NARR data compared well with the satellite-based evaporative stress index for four previously identified flash drought events. Furthermore, four additional flash drought cases were compared with the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), and SESR rapidly declined 1–2 weeks before a response was evident with the USDM. From the climatological analysis, a hot spot of flash drought occurrence was revealed over the Great Plains, the Corn Belt, and the western Great Lakes region. Relatively few flash drought events occurred over mountainous and arid regions. Flash droughts were categorized based on their rate of intensification, and it was found that the most intense flash droughts occurred over the central Great Plains, Corn Belt, and western Great Lakes region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the increasing use of the term “flash drought” by the media and scientific community, it is prudent to develop a consistent definition that can be used to identify these events and to understand their salient characteristics. It is generally accepted that flash droughts occur more often during the summer owing to increased evaporative demand; however, two distinct approaches have been used to identify them. The first approach focuses on their rate of intensification, whereas the second approach implicitly focuses on their duration. These conflicting notions for what constitutes a flash drought (i.e., unusually fast intensification vs short duration) introduce ambiguity that affects our ability to detect their onset, monitor their development, and understand the mechanisms that control their evolution. Here, we propose that the definition for “flash drought” should explicitly focus on its rate of intensification rather than its duration, with droughts that develop much more rapidly than normal identified as flash droughts. There are two primary reasons for favoring the intensification approach over the duration approach. First, longevity and impact are fundamental characteristics of drought. Thus, short-term events lasting only a few days and having minimal impacts are inconsistent with the general understanding of drought and therefore should not be considered flash droughts. Second, by focusing on their rapid rate of intensification, the proposed “flash drought” definition highlights the unique challenges faced by vulnerable stakeholders who have less time to prepare for its adverse effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation variability has increased in recent decades across the Great Plains (GP) of the United States. Drought and its associated drivers have been studied in the GP region; however, periods of excessive precipitation (pluvials) at seasonal to interannual scales have received less attention. This study narrows this knowledge gap with the overall goal of understanding GP precipitation variability during pluvial periods. Through composites of relevant atmospheric variables from the ECMWF twentieth-century reanalysis (ERA-20C), key differences between southern Great Plains (SGP) and northern Great Plains (NGP) pluvial periods are highlighted. The SGP pluvial pattern shows an area of negative height anomalies over the southwestern United States with wind anomalies consistent with frequent synoptic wave passages along a southward-shifted North Pacific jet. TheNGPpattern during pluvial periods, by contrast, depicts anomalously low heights in the northwestern United States and an anomalously extended Pacific jet. Analysis of daily heavy precipitation events reveals the key drivers for these pluvial events, namely, an east-west height gradient and associated stronger poleward moisture fluxes. Therefore, the results show that pluvial years over the GP are likely driven by synoptic-scale processes rather than by anomalous seasonal precipitation driven by longer time-scale features. Overall, the results present a possible pathway to predicting the occurrence of pluvial years over the GP and understanding the causes of GP precipitation variability, potentially mitigating the threats of water scarcity and excesses for the public and agricultural sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Rapid intensification is the main flash drought driver east of Rocky Mountains (RM). • West of the RM, rapid intensification often occurs without reaching drought. • SESR showed strong potential in identifying drought, particularly east of the RM. • SESR is able to represent meteorological and agricultural drought. Flash droughts develop rapidly (∼1 month timescale) and produce significant ecological, agricultural, and socioeconomical impacts. Recent advances in our understanding of flash droughts have resulted in methods to identify and quantify flash drought events. However, few studies have been done to isolate the individual rapid intensification and drought components of flash drought, which could further determine their causes, evolution, and predictability. This study utilized the standardized evaporative stress ratio (SESR) to quantify individual components of flash drought from 1979 – 2019, using evapotranspiration (ET) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. The temporal change in SESR was utilized to quantify the rapid intensification component of flash drought. The drought component was also determined using SESR and compared to the United States Drought Monitor. The results showed that SESR was able to represent the spatial coverage of drought well for regions east of the Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, the rapid intensification component agreed well with previous flash drought studies, with the overall climatology of rapid intensification events showing similar hotspots to the flash drought climatology east of the Rocky Mountains. The rapid intensification climatology suggested areas west of the Rocky Mountains experience rapid drying more often than east of the Rocky Mountains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable indicators of rapid drought onset can help to improve the effectiveness of drought early warning systems. In this study, the evaporative stress index (ESI), which uses remotely sensed thermal infrared imagery to estimate évapotranspiration (ET), is compared to drought classifications in the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) and standard precipitation-based drought indicators for several cases of rapid drought development that have occurred across the United States in recent years. Analysis of meteorological time series from the North American Regional Reanalysis indicates that these events are typically characterized by warm air temperature and low cloud cover anomalies, often with high winds and dewpoint depressions that serve to hasten evaporative depletion of soil moisture reserves. Stan-dardized change anomalies depicting the rate at which various multiweek ESI composites changed over different time intervals are computed to more easily identify areas experiencing rapid changes in ET. Overall, the results demonstrate that ESI change anomalies can provide early warning of incipient drought impacts on agricultural systems, as indicated in crop condition reports collected by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. In each case examined, large negative change anomalies indicative of rapidly drying conditions were either coincident with the introduction of drought in the USDM or lead the USDM drought depiction by several weeks, depending on which ESI composite and time-differencing interval was used. Incorporation of the ESI as a data layer used in the construction of the USDM may improve timely depictions of moisture conditions and vegetation stress associated with flash drought events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the benefits of training a process-based, land surface model is the capacity to use it in ungauged sites as a complement to standard weather stations for predicting energy fluxes, evapotranspiration, and surface and root-zone soil temperature and moisture. In this study, dynamic (i.e., time-evolving) vegetation parameters were derived from remotely sensed Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery and coupled with a physics-based land surface model (tin-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS)) at four eddy covariance (EC) sites in south-central U.S. to test the predictability of micro-meteorological, soil-related, and energy flux-related variables. One cropland and one grassland EC site in northern Oklahoma, USA, were used to tune the model with respect to energy fluxes, soil temperature, and moisture. Calibrated model parameters, mostly related to the soil, were then transferred to two other EC sites in Oklahoma with similar soil and vegetation types. New dynamic vegetation parameter time series were updated according to MODIS imagery at each site. Overall, the tRIBS model captured both seasonal and diurnal cycles of the energy partitioning and soil temperatures across all four stations, as indicated by the model assessment metrics, although large uncertainties appeared in the prediction of ground heat flux, surface, and root-zone soil moisture at some stations. The transferability of previously calibrated model parameters and the use of MODIS to derive dynamic vegetation parameters enabled rapid yet reasonable predictions. The model was proven to be a convenient complement to standard weather stations particularly for sites where eddy covariance or similar equipment is not available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and tallgrass prairie are common land cover types in the Southern Plains of the United States. During the last century, agricultural expansion into native grasslands was extensive, particularly managed pasture or winter wheat. In this study, we measured carbon dioxide (CO 2) and water vapor (H 2 O) fluxes from winter wheat and tallgrass prairie sites in Central Oklahoma using the eddy covariance in 2015 and 2016. The objective of this study was to contrast CO 2 and H 2 O fluxes between these two ecosystems to provide insights on the impacts of conversion of tallgrass prairie to winter wheat on carbon and water budgets. Daily net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE) reached seasonal peaks of −9.4 and −8.8 g C m−2 in 2015 and −6.2 and −7.5 g C m−2 in 2016 at winter wheat and tall grass prairie sites, respectively. Both sites were net sink of carbon during their growing seasons. At the annual scale, the winter wheat site was a net source of carbon (56 ± 13 and 33 ± 9 g C m−2 year−1 in 2015 and 2016, respectively). In contrast, the tallgrass prairie site was a net sink of carbon (−128 ± 69 and −119 ± 53 g C m−2 year−1 in 2015 and 2016, respectively). Daily ET reached seasonal maximums of 6.0 and 5.3 mm day−1 in 2015, and 7.2 and 8.2 mm day−1 in 2016 at the winter wheat and tallgrass prairie sites, respectively. Although ecosystem water use efficiency (EWUE) was higher in winter wheat than in tallgrass prairie at the seasonal scale, summer fallow contributed higher water loss from the wheat site per unit of carbon fixed, resulting into lower EWUE at the annual scale. Results indicate that the differences in magnitudes and patterns of fluxes between the two ecosystems can influence carbon and water budgets. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • Carbon and water fluxes measured in two ecosystems located at 2.7 km apart are compared. • Winter wheat and tallgrass prairie are both carbon sinks during the growing season. • Summer fallow caused the wheat ecosystem to be a source of carbon at annual scale. • Management practices caused changes in the fluxes of prairie and wheat ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Percentage maps of juniper forest encroachment at 1 km are generated during 2000–2015. • Climate variable changes are examined at regional scale by pairwise analysis models. • We quantified climate variable changes with each percentage increase of woody cover. • Roles of hydroclimates are assessed on climate impacts of juniper woody encroachment. Woody plant encroachment (WPE) into grasslands has been exacerbated by climate change and human activities. WPE may affect local climate by altering the exchange of mass and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. The lack of studies on the effects of WPE on local climate hinders our understanding of the interactions between changes in regional vegetation cover and climate. Here, we analyzed the differences of land surface temperature (ΔLST), albedo (ΔAlbedo) and evapotranspiration (ΔET) between juniper-woody-encroached grasslands and adjacent pure grasslands using 16-years of remote sensing data. Our results showed that juniper woody plant encroachment (JWPE) into the semi-arid and sub-humid grasslands reduced daytime LST and albedo, but increased nighttime LST and ET from an annual scale analysis. With each one percent increase in juniper cover, annual mean daytime ΔLST decreased ~0.026 °C, nighttime ΔLST increased ~0.01 °C, daily ΔLST decreased ~0.008 °C, Δalbedo decreased ~0.053%, and ΔET increased ~1.31 mm/year. Furthermore, it is suggested that the impacts of JWPE on LST and ET were stronger in dry years than in normal and pluvial years, and that no significant variations in albedo were found among the different hydrological conditions. These results provide insights into applying satellite-based techniques to understand the feedbacks between woody vegetation dynamics and local climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the factors controlling evapotranspiration (ET) of spatially distributed tallgrass prairie is crucial to accurately upscale ET and to predict the response of tallgrass prairie ecosystems to current and future climate. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and ground-based climate variables were integrated with eddy covariance tower-based ET (ET EC ) at six AmeriFlux tallgrass prairie sites in the central United States to determine major climatic factors that control ET over multiple timescales and to develop a simple and robust statistical model for predicting ET. Variability in ET was nearly identical across sites over a range of timescales, and it was most strongly driven by photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) at hourly-to-weekly timescales, by vapor pressure deficit (VPD) at weekly-to-monthly timescales, and by temperature at seasonal-to-interannual timescales at all sites. Thus, the climatic drivers of ET change over multiple timescales. The EVI tracked the seasonal variation of ET EC well at both individual sites (R 2 > 0.70) and across six sites (R 2 = 0.76). The inclusion of PAR further improved the ET-EVI relationship (R 2 = 0.86). Based on this result, we used ET EC , EVI, and PAR (MJ m −2 d −1 ) data from four sites (15 site-years) to develop a statistical model (ET = 0.11 PAR + 5.49 EVI − 1.43, adj. R 2 = 0.86, P < 0.0001) for predicting daily ET at 8-day intervals. This predictive model was evaluated against additional two years of ET EC data from one of the four model development sites and two independent sites. The predicted ET (ET EVI+PAR ) captured the seasonal patterns and magnitudes of ET EC , and correlated well with ET EC , with R 2 of 0.87-0.96 and RMSE of 0.35-0.49 mm d −1 , and it was significantly improved compared to the standard MODIS ET product. This study demonstrated that tallgrass prairie ET can be accurately predicted using a multiple regression model that uses EVI and PAR which can be readily derived from remote sensing data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding of the underlying causes of spatial variation in exchange of carbon and water vapor fluxes between grasslands and the atmosphere is crucial for accurate estimates of regional and global carbon and water budgets, and for predicting the impact of climate change on biosphere–atmosphere feedbacks of grasslands. We used ground-based eddy flux and meteorological data, and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index (EVI) from 12 grasslands across the United States to examine the spatial variability in carbon and water vapor fluxes and to evaluate the biophysical controls on the spatial patterns of fluxes. Precipitation was strongly associated with spatial and temporal variability in carbon and water vapor fluxes and vegetation productivity. Grasslands with annual average precipitation <600 mm generally had neutral annual carbon balance or emitted small amount of carbon to the atmosphere. Despite strong coupling between gross primary production (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) across study sites, GPP showed larger spatial variation than ET, and EVI had a greater effect on GPP than on ET. Consequently, large spatial variation in ecosystem water use efficiency (EWUE = annual GPP/ET; varying from 0.67 ± 0.55 to 2.52 ± 0.52 g C mm −1 ET) was observed. Greater reduction in GPP than ET at high air temperature and vapor pressure deficit caused a reduction in EWUE in dry years, indicating a response which is opposite than what has been reported for forests. Our results show that spatial and temporal variations in ecosystem carbon uptake, ET, and water use efficiency of grasslands were strongly associated with canopy greenness and coverage, as indicated by EVI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]