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In 2015, Germany introduced a statutory hourly minimum wage that was not only universally binding but also set at a relatively high level. We discuss the short-run effects of this new minimum wage on a wide set of socio-economic outcomes, such as employment and working hours, earnings and wage inequality, dependent and self-employment, as well as reservation wages and satisfaction. We also discuss difficulties in the implementation of the minimum wage and the measurement of its effects related to non-compliance and suitability of data sources. Two years after the minimum wage introduction, the following conclusions can be drawn: while hourly wages increased for low-wage earners, some small negative employment effects are also identifiable. The effects on aspired goals, such as poverty and inequality reduction, have not materialized in the short run. Instead, a tendency to reduce working hours is found, which alleviates the desired positive impact on monthly income. Additionally, the level of non-compliance was substantial in the short run, thus drawing attention to problems when implementing such a wide-reaching policy., CEPA Discussion Papers, 1

Many countries support business start-ups to spur economic growth and reduce unemployment with different programmes. Evaluation studies of such programmes commonly rely on the conditional independence assumption (CIA), allowing a causal interpretation of the results only if all relevant variables affecting participation and success are accounted for. While the entrepreneurship literature has emphasised the important role of personality traits as predictors for start-up decisions and business success, these variables were neglected in evaluation studies so far due to data limitations. In this paper, we evaluate a new start-up subsidy for unemployed individuals in Germany using propensity score matching under the CIA. Having access to rich administrative-survey data allows us to incorporate usually unobserved personality measures in the evaluation and investigate their impact on the estimated effects. We find strong positive effects on labour market reintegration and earned income for the new programme. Most importantly, results including and excluding individuals' personalities do not differ significantly, implying that concerns about potential overestimation of programme effects in absence of personality measures might be less justified if the set of other control variables is rich enough.

Recent microeconometric evaluation studies have shown that start-up subsidies for unemployed individuals are an effective policy tool to improve long-term employment and income prospects of participants, in particular compared to other active labor market programs (e.g. training, job search assistance or job creation schemes). What has not been examined yet are the potentially heterogeneous effects of start-up programs across regional labor markets. Labor demand side restrictions in areas with relatively bad labor market conditions generally increase entries into start-up programs as job offers are limited and starting an own business is an opportunity to leave unemployment. However, the survival of firms in deprived areas is also lower, such that the overall effect remains an empirical question. We use a combination of administrative and survey data and observe participants in two distinct start-up programs in Germany for five years after start-up as well as a control group of unemployed who did not enter these programs. We add information on unemployment rates and GDP per capita at the labor agency district level to distinguish regional labor markets. Using propensity score matching methods we find supportive evidence that the founding process and development of businesses as well as program effectiveness is influenced by prevailing economic conditions at start-up.

The evaluation of labor market policies has become an important issue in many European countries. In recent years, a number of them have opened their administrative databases for evaluation studies. The advantages of administrative data are straightforward: they are accurate, contain a large number of observations (in some cases the whole population) and usually cover a long period of time. However, the information contained in administrative data is normally limited to administrative purposes. Therefore, information that might be relevant for economic modeling is often absent. The IZA Evaluation Dataset aims to overcome such limitations for Germany by complementing administrative data from the Federal Employment Agency with innovative survey data. The administrative part of the dataset consists of a large random sample of inflows into unemployment in Germany from 2001 to 2008 and contains around 920,000 individuals. The complementary survey covers a panel of more than 17,000 individuals who entered unemployment between June 2007 and May 2008. They were initially interviewed shortly after becoming unemployed and then again one year later. In addition, a quarter of individuals were interviewed already after six months. The survey data also contain information on search behavior, ethnic and social networks, psychological factors, (non-)cognitive abilities, and attitudes. This paper describes the sampling and contents of the IZA Evaluation Dataset and outlines the future development.

Turning unemployment into self-employment has become an increasingly important part of active labor market policies (ALMP) in many OECD countries. Germany is a good example where the spending on start-up subsidies for the unemployed accounted for nearly 17% of the total spending on ALMP in 2004. In contrast to other programs - like vocational training, job creation schemes, or wage subsidies - the empirical evidence on the effectiveness of such schemes is still scarce; especially regarding long-term effects and effect heterogeneity. This paper aims to close this gap. We use administrative and survey data from a large sample of participants in two distinct start-up programs and a control group of unemployed individuals. We find that over 80% of participants are integrated in the labor market and have relatively high labor income five years after start-up. Additionally, participants are much more satisfied with their current occupational situation compared to previous jobs. Based on conditional propensity score matching methods we estimate the long-term effects of the programs against non-participation. Our results show that both programs are effective with respect to income and employment outcomes in the long-run. Moreover, we consider effect heterogeneity with respect to several dimensions and show that start-up subsidies for the unemployed tend to be most effective for disadvantaged groups in the labor market.

The German government has spent between 7bn and 11bn Euro per year on active labor market policies (ALMP) in East Germany in the last decade. The effectiveness of the most important programs (in terms of participants and spending) such as job-creation schemes and vocational training has been evaluated quite thoroughly in recent years. The results are disappointing, indicating that nearly all of these 'traditional' programs have to be rated as a failure. In light of these findings, policies to encourage unemployed people to become self-employed gained increasing importance. We present first evidence on the effectiveness of two start-up programs in East Germany. Our findings even though partly preliminary - are rather promising, showing that these programs increase employment chances and earnings of participants. Hence, start-up subsidies might work even in a labor market with structural problems such as the one in East Germany.

Die Ich-AG (Existenzgründungszuschuss) war eines der zentralen Instrumente, das im Rahmen der Hartz-Reformen in den arbeitsmarktpolitischen Kanon aufgenommen wurde. Zusammen mit dem bereits seit langem bekannten Überbrückungsgeld wurden damit zwischen 2003 und 2006 mehr als eine Million vormals Arbeitsloser bei der Gründung eines Unternehmens gefördert. Frühere Studien haben gezeigt, dass sich beide Programme ergänzten, indem sie unterschiedliche Personengruppen zur Existenzgründung aktivierten. In den kurz- bis mittelfristigen Analysen im Rahmen der Hartz-Evaluationen wurden beide Programme ebenfalls positiv bewertet. Bislang unerforscht sind allerdings deren langfristige Wirkungen. Das vorliegende Papier schließt diese Lücke und gibt Aufschluss über den Erfolg von geförderten Existenzgründern fünf Jahre nach der Gründung. Es zeigt sich, dass zu diesem Zeitpunkt noch nahezu 50-60% der ehemaligen Ich-AG-Gründer/innen und zwischen 53-67% der mit Überbrückungsgeld Geförderten in Voll- oder Teilzeit selbständig tätig sind. Hinsichtlich der Integration in den ersten Arbeitsmarkt können beide Programme als effektiv angesehen werden: Die Teilnehmer weisen höhere Beschäftigungsquoten als eine Kontrollgruppe von nicht-geförderten Arbeitslosen auf und erzielen höhere Einkommen. Die induzierten Beschäftigungseffekte sind für das Überbrückungsgeld relativ hoch; auf 100.000 Förderungen entfallen knapp 80.000 zusätzliche Vollzeitäquivalente.

Turning unemployment into self-employment has become a major focus of German active labour market policy (ALMP) in recent years. If effective, this would not only reduce Germany?s persistently high unemployment rate, but also increase its notoriously low self-employment rate. Empirical evidence on the effectiveness of such programmes is scarce. The contribution of the present paper is twofold: first, we evaluate the effectiveness of two start-up programmes for the unemployed. Our outcome variables include the probability of being employed, the probability of being unemployed, and personal income. Second, based on the results of this analysis, we conduct an efficiency analysis, i.e., we estimate whether the Federal Employment Agency has saved money by placing unemployed individuals in these programmes. Our results show that at the end of the observation period, both programmes are effective and one is also efficient. The considerable positive effects present a stark contrast to findings from evaluations of other German ALMP programmes in recent years. Hence, ALMP programmes aimed at moving the unemployed into self-employment may prove to be among the most effective, both in Germany and elsewhere.

"Arbeitsbeschaffungsmaßnahmen (ABM) waren lange Zeit ein wichtiges Instrument aktiver Arbeitsmarktpolitik (AAMP) in Deutschland. Im Zeitraum 2000 bis 2004 nahmen insgesamt knapp 1 Mio. Personen - teils mehrfach - an diesen Maßnahmen teil und es wurden fast 12 Mrd. Euro dafür ausgegeben. Eine umfassende Wirkungsanalyse mit Berücksichtigung von Effektheterogenitäten war bis zur Aufbereitung der prozessproduzierten Daten der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (BA) für wissenschaftliche Untersuchungen aufgrund der unzureichenden Datenlage nicht möglich. Die Verwendung der umfangreichen Kundendaten der BA ermöglicht die wissenschaftliche Evaluation der Wirkungen der Programme der aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik; ABM sind das erste Instrument, dessen Wirkungen mit Berücksichtigung zielgruppenspezifischer Unterschiede in den Effekten untersucht werden konnten. In der Studie werden die wichtigsten Ergebnisse der Analysen der ABM-Programme zusammengefasst. Dabei werden die Implikationen für die Arbeitsmarktpolitik auch vor dem Hintergrund der Hartz-Reformen und den damit verbundenen institutionellen Neuerungen diskutiert." (Autorenreferat)

Increasing work incentives for people with low incomes is a common topic in the policy debate across European countries. The ?Mini-Job? reform in Germany - introduced on April 1, 2003 - can be seen in line with these policies, exempting labour income below a certain threshold from taxes and employees? social security contributions. We carry out an ex-post evaluation to identify the short-run effects of this reform. Our identification strategy uses an exogenous variation in the interview months in the German Socio-Economic Panel, that allows us to distinguish groups that are (or are not) affected by the reform. To account for seasonal effects we additionally use a difference-in-differences strategy. The results show that the short-run effects of the reform are limited. We find no significant short-run effects for marginal employment. However, there is evidence that single men who are already employed react immediately and increase secondary job holding.

In dieser Studie werden die Wirkungen von Arbeitsbeschaffungsmaßnahmen (ABM) in Deutschland auf die individuellen Eingliederungswahrscheinlichkeiten der Teilnehmer in reguläre Beschäftigung evaluiert. Für die Untersuchung wird ein umfangreicher und informativer Datensatz aus den Datenquellen der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (BA) verwendet, der es ermöglicht, die Wirkungen der Programme differenziert nach individuellen Unterschieden der Teilnehmer und mit Berücksichtigung der heterogenen Arbeitsmarktstruktur zu untersuchen. Der Datensatz enthält Informationen zu allen Teilnehmern in ABM, die ihre Maßnahmen im Februar 2000 begonnen haben, und zu einer Kontrollgruppe von Nichtteilnehmern, die im Januar 2000 arbeitslos waren und im Februar 2000 nicht in die Programme eingetreten sind. Mit Hilfe der Informationen der Beschäftigtenstatistik ist es hierbei erstmals möglich, den Abgang in reguläre Beschäftigung auf Grundlage administrativer Daten zu untersuchen. Der vorliegende Verbleibszeitraum reicht bis Dezember 2002. Unter Verwendung von Matching-Methoden auf dem Ansatz potenzieller Ergebnisse werden die Effekte von ABM mit regionaler Unterscheidung und für besondere Problem- und Zielgruppen des Arbeitsmarktes geschätzt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen zwar deutliche Unterschiede in den Effekten für Subgruppen, insgesamt weisen die empirischen Befunde jedoch darauf hin, dass das Ziel der Eingliederung in reguläre ungeförderte Beschäftigung durch ABM weitgehend nicht realisiert werden konnte. JEL: C40 , C13 , J64 , H43 , J68

The need to evaluate the performance of active labour market policies is not questioned any longer. Even though OECD countries spend significant shares of national resources on these measures, unemployment rates remain high or even increase. We focus on microeconometric evaluation which has to solve the fundamental evaluation problem and overcome the possible occurrence of selection bias. When using non-experimental data, different evaluation approaches can be thought of. The aim of this paper is to review the most relevant estimators, discuss their identifying assumptions and their (dis-)advantages. Thereby we will present estimators based on some form of exogeneity (selection on observables) as well as estimators where selection might also occur on unobservable characteristics. Since the possible occurrence of effect heterogeneity has become a major topic in evaluation research in recent years, we will also assess the ability of each estimator to deal with it. Additionally, we will also discuss some recent extensions of the static evaluation framework to allow for dynamic treatment evaluation.

Previous empirical studies of job creation schemes in Germany have shown that the average effects for the participating individuals are negative. However, we find that this is not true for all strata of the population. Identifying individual characteristics that are responsible for the effect heterogeneity and using this information for a better allocation of individuals therefore bears some scope for improving programme efficiency. We present several stratification strategies and discuss the occurring effect heterogeneity. Our findings show that job creation schemes do neither harm nor improve the labour market chances for most of the groups. Exceptions are long-term unemployed men in West and long-term unemployed women in East and West Germany who benefit from participation in terms of higher employment rates. JEL: C13 , J68 , H43

Propensity Score Matching (PSM) has become a popular approach to estimate causal treatment effects. It is widely applied when evaluating labour market policies, but empirical examples can be found in very diverse fields of study. Once the researcher has decided to use PSM, he is confronted with a lot of questions regarding its implementation. To begin with, a first decision has to be made concerning the estimation of the propensity score. Following that one has to decide which matching algorithm to choose and determine the region of common support. Subsequently, the matching quality has to be assessed and treatment effects and their standard errors have to be estimated. Furthermore, questions like `what to do if there is choice-based sampling?' or `when to measure effects?' can be important in empirical studies. Finally, one might also want to test the sensitivity of estimated treatment effects with respect to unobserved heterogeneity or failure of the common support condition. Each implementation step involves a lot of decisions and different approaches can be thought of. The aim of this paper is to discuss these implementation issues and give some guidance to researchers who want to use PSM for evaluation purposes.

In this paper we evaluate the employment effects of job creation schemes on the participating individuals in Germany. Job creation schemes are a major element of active labour market policy in Germany and are targeted at long-term unemployed and other hard-to-place individuals. Access to very informative administrative data of the Federal Employment Agency justifies the application of a matching estimator and allows to account for individual (group-specific) and regional effect heterogeneity. We extend previous studies in four directions. First, we are able to evaluate the effects on regular (unsubsidised) employment. Second, we observe the outcome of participants and non-participants for nearly three years after programme start and can therefore analyse mid- and long-term effects. Third, we test the sensitivity of the results with respect to various decisions which have to be made during implementation of the matching estimator, e.g. choosing the matching algorithm or estimating the propensity score. Finally, we check if a possible occurrence of 'unobserved heterogeneity' distorts our interpretation. The overall results are rather discouraging, since the employment effects are negative or insignificant for most of the analysed groups. One notable exception are long-term unemployed individuals who benefit from participation. Hence, one policy implication is to address programmes to this problem group more tightly. JEL Classification: J68, H43, C13

This paper evaluates the effects of job creation schemes on the participating individuals in Germany. Since previous empirical studies of these measures have been based on relatively small datasets and focussed on East Germany, this is the first study which allows to draw policy-relevant conclusions. The very informative and exhaustive dataset at hand not only justifies the application of a matching estimator but also allows to take account of threefold heterogeneity. The recently developed multiple treatment framework is used to evaluate the effects with respect to regional, individual and programme heterogeneity. The results show considerable differences with respect to these sources of heterogeneity, but the overall finding is very clear. At the end of our observation period, that is two years after the start of the programmes, participants in job creation schemes have a significantly lower success probability on the labour market in comparison to matched non-participants. JEL Classification: H43, J64, J68, C13, C40

Persistently high unemployment, tight government budgets and the growing scepticism regarding the effects of active labour market policies (ALMP) are the basis for a growing interest in evaluating these measures. This paper intends to explain the need for evaluation on the micro- and macroeconomic level, introduce the fundamental evaluation problem and solutions to it, give an overview of the newer developments in evaluation literature and finally take a look on empirical estimations of ALMP effects. JEL Classification: C14, C33, H43, J64, J68