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We modelled and assessed the past, present and predicted future eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea. The assessment covers a 350-year period from 1850 to 2200 and is based on: (1) modelled concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), dissolved inorganic phosphorous (DIP), chlorophyll-a, Secchi depth, and oxygen under four different of nutrient input scenarios and (2) the application of a multi-metric indicator-based tool for assessment of eutrophication status: HEAT 3.0. This tool was previously applied using historical observations to determine eutrophication status from 1901 to 2012. Here we apply HEAT 3.0 using results of a biogeochemical model to reveal significant changes in eutrophication status from 1850 to 2200. Under two scenarios where Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) nutrient reduction targets are met, we expect future good status will be achieved in most Baltic Sea basins. Under two scenarios where nutrient loads remain at 1997-2003 levels or increase, good status will not be achieved. The change from a healthy state without eutrophication problems in the open waters took place in the late 1950s and early 1960s. Following introduction of the first nutrient abatement measures, recovery began in some basins in the late 1990s, whilst in others it commenced in the beginning of the 21st century. Based on model results, we expect that the first basin to achieve a status without eutrophication will be Arkona, between 2030 and 2040. By 2060-2070, a status without eutrophication is anticipated for the Kattegat, Bornholm Basin and Gulf of Finland, followed by the Danish straits around 2090. For the Baltic Proper and Bothnian Sea, a good status with regard to eutrophication will not be expected before 2200. Further, we conclude that two basins are not likely to meet the targets agreed upon and to attain a status unaffected by eutrophication, i.e. the Gulf of Riga and Bothnian Bay. These results, especially the prediction that some basins will not achieve a good status, can be used in support of continuous development and implementation of the regional ecosystem-based nutrient management strategy, the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan.

Much of the Baltic Sea is currently classified as 'affected by eutrophication'. The causes for this are twofold. First, current levels of nutrient inputs (nitrogen and phosphorus) from human activities exceed the natural processing capacity with an accumulation of nutrients in the Baltic Sea over the last 50-100 years. Secondly, the Baltic Sea is naturally susceptible to nutrient enrichment due to a combination of long retention times and stratification restricting ventilation of deep waters. Here, based on a unique data set collated from research activities and long-term monitoring programs, we report on the temporal and spatial trends of eutrophication status for the open Baltic Sea over a 112-year period using the HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT 3.0). Further, we analyse variation in the confidence of the eutrophication status assessment based on a systematic quantitative approach using coefficients of variation in the observations. The classifications in our assessment indicate that the first signs of eutrophication emerged in the mid-1950s and the central parts of the Baltic Sea changed from being unaffected by eutrophication to being affected. We document improvements in eutrophication status that are direct consequences of long-term efforts to reduce the inputs of nutrients. The reductions in both nitrogen and phosphorus loads have led to large-scale alleviation of eutrophication and to a healthier Baltic Sea. Reduced confidence in our assessment is seen more recently due to reductions in the scope of monitoring programs. Our study sets a baseline for implementation of the ecosystem-based management strategies and policies currently in place including the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directives and the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan.

This study follows up on a previous assessment of eutrophication status in the Baltic Sea, which covered the period 2001–2006. The updated assessment is based on new eutrophication targets, an improved eutrophication assessment tool (HEAT 3.0) as well as monitoring data for the period 2007–2011. Based on classifications of eutrophication status in all Baltic Sea sub-basins, we reveal that during the assessment period 2007–2011, the entire open Baltic Sea was affected by eutrophication. This is a different conclusion compared to earlier assessments and studies. Whilst the confidence of the assessment was high or moderate in most basins, there were indications of declining confidence in some assessment units and improved confidence in others. The problems in confidence were mainly related to scarcity of in situ monitoring data on chlorophyll-a and Secchi depth. The potential implications of our results, e.g. the expansion of the eutrophic zone and declining confidence in the classifications of eutrophication status, are discussed in relation to the existing Baltic Sea-wide nutrient management strategy as well as future assessment activities.

Nutrient enrichment of coastal marine waters caused by losses of nitrate (NO3 −) from agriculture is an increasing global problem. In the European Union, the Nitrates Directive (ND) of 1991 was meant to be a cornerstone in reducing eutrophication effects in coastal waters downstream from intensively farmed catchments. Although reductions in losses of nitrate have been attained, very few Member States have yet been able to reduce eutrophication effects caused by inputs of NO3 − from agriculture. We report trends in concentrations of NO3 − and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) in Danish coastal and open marine waters during the period from 1996 to 2011 together with an assessment of eutrophication status based on multiple indicators (e.g. nutrient concentrations, Chl-a, submerged aquatic vegetation and benthic macroinvertebrates). Despite decreasing concentrations of both NO3 −and Chl-a, Danish coastal waters are not yet to be classified as ‘unaffected by eutrophication’. In order to improve future pan-European evaluations of the effectiveness of the ND, we argue for the added value of including indicators and assessment principles from other European Directives, i.e. the Water Framework Directive and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive.

The eutrophication status of the entire Baltic Sea is classified using a multi-metric indicator- based assessment tool. A total of 189 areas are assessed using indicators where information on reference conditions (RefCon), and acceptable devi- ation (AcDev) from reference condition could be combined with national monitoring data from the period 2001-2006. Most areas (176) are classified as 'affected by eutrophication' and only two open water areas and 11 coastal areas are classified as 'unaf- fected by eutrophication'. The classification is made by application of the recently developed HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT), which is described in this paper. The use of harmonized

We review approaches and tools currently usedin Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway andSweden) for integrated assessment of ‘ecological status’sensu the EU Water Framework Directive as well asassessment of ‘eutrophication status’ in coastal and marinewaters. Integration principles for combining indicatorswithin biological quality elements (BQEs) and combiningBQEs into a final-integrated assessment are discussed.Specific focus has been put on combining different types ofinformation into indices, since several methods arecurrently employed. As a consequence of the variety ofmethods used, comparisons across both BQEs and watercategories (river, lakes and coastal waters) can be difficult.Based on our analyses, we conclude that some principlesand methods for integration can be critical and that aharmonised approach should be developed. Further, weconclude that the integration principles applied withinBQEs are critical and in need of harmonisation if we want abetter understanding of potential transition in ecologicalstatus between surface water types, e.g. when riverinewater enters a downstream lake or coastal water body.

Much of the Baltic Sea is currently classified as 'affected by eutrophication'. The causes for this are twofold. First, current levels of nutrient inputs (nitrogen and phosphorus) from human activities exceed the natural processing capacity with an accumulation of nutrients in the Baltic Sea over the last 50-100 years. Secondly, the Baltic Sea is naturally susceptible to nutrient enrichment due to a combination of long retention times and stratification restricting ventilation of deep waters. Here, based on a unique data set collated from research activities and long-term monitoring programs, we report on the temporal and spatial trends of eutrophication status for the open Baltic Sea over a 112-year period using the HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT 3.0). Further, we analyse variation in the confidence of the eutrophication status assessment based on a systematic quantitative approach using coefficients of variation in the observations. The classifications in our assessment indicate that the first signs of eutrophication emerged in the mid-1950s and the central parts of the Baltic Sea changed from being unaffected by eutrophication to being affected. We document improvements in eutrophication status that are direct consequences of long-term efforts to reduce the inputs of nutrients. The reductions in both nitrogen and phosphorus loads have led to large-scale alleviation of eutrophication and to a healthier Baltic Sea. Reduced confidence in our assessment is seen more recently due to reductions in the scope of monitoring programs. Our study sets a baseline for implementation of the ecosystem-based management strategies and policies currently in place including the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directives and the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan.

We report the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in ecological status classifications. The method presented here can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication or ecological status. The confidence assessment is based on scoring the quality of the indicators on which the primary assessment is made. This represents a first step towards linking status classification with information regarding their accuracy and precision. Applied to an existing data set used for assessment of eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea (including the Kattegat and Danish Straits) we demonstrate that confidence in the assessment is Good or High in 149 out of 189 areas assessed (79%). Contrary to our expectations, assessments of the open parts of the Baltic Sea have a higher confidence than assessments of coastal waters. We also find that in open waters of the Baltic Sea, some biological indicators have a higher confidence than indicators representing physical-chemical conditions. In coastal waters, phytoplankton, submerged aquatic vegetation and indicators of physical-chemical conditions have a higher confidence than indicators of the quality of benthic invertebrate communities. Our analyses also show that the perceived weaknesses of eutrophication assessments are due more to Low confidence in reference conditions and acceptable deviations, rather than in the monitoring data.