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Copyright of Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The vast majority of domestic support to farmers in the European Union (EU) is notified in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) green box as decoupled payments. The EU considers this support to minimally distort production and/or trade. As demonstrated in the literature, this claim is questionable. This paper aims at analyzing this claim using a global, spatially differentiated, partial equilibrium simulation model with endogenous land supply functions. Comparing a complete elimination of the EU green box measures with a baseline scenario, the model results indicate only small distortionary effects in production and trade. Hence, EU support notified to the green box seems to be compatible with the general requirements of the green box. The finding seems to result from the assumption of unchanged EU border policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we analyse how three scenarios involving different levels of harmonisation of common agricultural policy (CAP) decoupled payments in the EU affect the distribution of farm income across regions and farm types. We use the farm type extension of the common agricultural policy impact (CAPRI) model, which captures farm heterogeneity across the EU. The first scenario (NUTS1) assumes uniform per-hectare payments at the NUTS1 level. The second scenario (MS-CONV) equalises the per-hectare rates inside each Member State (MS) and partially harmonises the single payment scheme (SPS) across MS in line with the 2011 Commission proposal. The third scenario simulates a uniform per-hectare payment at the EU level. Depending on the implementation of the SPS, the NUTS1 flat rate induces a substantial redistribution of payments across farm types and NUTS2 regions, particularly in regions that apply the historical SPS. The MS-CONV and EU flat-rate schemes have more significant impacts at the EU-wide level. In the EU-15, almost all farms lose payments from MS-CONV and EU-wide flat rates, whereas in the EU-10, almost all farm types gain from these scenarios. Our conservative estimates indicate that the flat-rate payments could redistribute up to €8.5 billion. Lower land rental costs partially offset the losses of farm income in the EU-15 from payment redistribution. Land rents drop for all flat-rate scenarios across most sectors and farm sizes in the EU-15. In the less productive new MS, the landowners' rental income is largely unaffected by the introduction of the flat rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper examines the potential impact of agricultural and trade policy reform on land-use across the EU focussing particularly on the issue of land abandonment. Using a novel combined application of the well established CAPRI and Dyna-CLUE models it estimates the extent of change across Europe under removal of Pillar 1 support payments and trade liberalisation. Overall, it is estimated that around 8 per cent less land will be farmed under these reforms than under the baseline situation. However, some regions, areas and farm types face more significant reductions. The reforms are particularly felt on livestock grazing farms situated in the more marginal areas of Europe, which also coincide with areas of high nature value. Therefore, farmland biodiversity is likely to be reduced in these areas. However, using a range of environmental indicators, relating to nutrient surpluses, GHG emissions, soil erosion and species abundance, an overall improvement in the environmental footprint of agriculture is likely. In addition, the economic efficiency of the agricultural sector will probably improve. The paper considers several possible options available to deal with any negative aspects of land abandonment. Following the FAO (2006), it is argued that untargeted, rather general agricultural policy measures which maintain land in production are likely to be an ineffective and inefficient way to address the perceived negative consequences of abandonment. A more holistic approach to rural development is required, tailored to the specific context within each area. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Recent European research projects have developed approaches that downscale land use related results of economic models. These results are primarily downscaled from the national or regional scale to a spatial resolution appropriate for environmental impact analysis. Different studies represent the interactions between the economic and geographic components of the land system in different ways. This paper explores how interactions between economic and geographic aspects of the land system can be strengthened in modelling studies. It does so by comparing two existing approaches (CLUE and Capri-Spat) for the European Union (EU27). CLUE focuses on disaggregating national level changes in claims for agricultural and urban area to a 1km×1km grid, explicitly addressing consequences of changing demands for agricultural and urban area for other land uses such as (semi-) natural vegetation. Whereas, CAPRI-Spat is concerned with agricultural land use, disaggregating cropping shares, animal stocking densities, yield and agricultural input use for mapping units. The mapping units are clusters of 1km×1km pixels considered homogenous in terms of soil, slope, land cover and administrative region. This paper discusses differences between the two models relating to geographical units, distribution algorithm and most importantly diverging interpretation of ‘agricultural land’, in relationship to their respective concepts and objectives. It concludes that a stronger integration of the geographic and economic aspects can be achieved by linking the overall land use dynamics simulated by CLUE to the detailed representation of the agricultural sector by CAPRI-Spat. Therefore, relative changes in land use classes at 1km×1km resolution obtained from CLUE simulations update a priori means in CAPRI-Spat entering a Highest Posterior Density Estimator. The findings of this study contribute to our overall capacity to integrate approaches from different disciplines in the integrated analysis of land change and the ex ante assessment of environmental and economic effects of agricultural policies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: As policy makers become increasingly aware of the impact of their decisions on the global economy, as well as the impact of developments in the global economy on regional and national resource use, the demand for cross-scale analysis of economic and environmental policies has become a high priority. This paper contributes to this literature by developing a new methodology to link two widely used policy models in order to provide an integrated assessment of the environmental impacts of EU biofuels mandates. By combining the CAPRI model of EU agricultural production and resource use with the GTAP model of global trade and land use, we are able to estimate both the global impacts of EU biofuels policies as well as the detailed, regional changes in land use and nutrient surplus. The applicability of this combined modeling approach extends well beyond biofuels. It could offer important insights into the global impacts of EU agricultural policy reforms, as well as analysis of the EU-regional impacts of global agreements on trade policy or climate change mitigation. In short, the methodology developed in this paper holds great promise for future, cross-scale analysis of global issues bearing on agriculture, land use and the environment. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Pastureland maintenance is seen as a land-based measure to reduce dependency on feed concentrates and mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from livestock production in the EU, while providing other ecosystems services. This paper assesses potential market-mediated impacts, including global Land Use Change (LUC) and GHG emissions, from increased subsidies to pasture-based livestock production in the EU. A tax recycling strategy (TRS) is simulated against a baseline up to 2030 under the shared socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2). This implies a budget-neutral increase in the level of pasture subsidies in individual Member States, as land subsidies for other cropping activities decrease. We employ the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GTAP in its recursive-dynamic version, GTAP-RDEM, extended with the Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) database FABIO to disaggregate agri-food sectors from 21 to 31. This approach allows considering price- and income-dependent feedbacks when assessing long-run changes in the global economy, improving the sectoral resolution relative to GTAP v10. The policy increases pastureland areas and cattle production in almost all EU Member States, whereas cropland and crop production decrease, causing significant changes across EU agri-food markets. Crop prices increase, leading to the reduced output of intensive animal production sectors, mainly pig and poultry. Cropland areas decrease and most EU countries increase imports of grain, oilseeds, and cakes, essentially soybean cake from Brazil and North America. While GHG emissions decrease in those EU countries where pasturelands expand mainly at the cost of croplands, GHG emissions increase in those countries where pastureland expansion comes with forest loss. As a result, net GHG emissions increase in the EU-27 in 2030 (+2.49 Mt CO 2 -eq). Emissions from LUC in major non-EU grain- and oilseed-exporting countries increase, e.g., by 102.52 Mt CO 2 -eq in Brazil and by 129.17 Mt CO 2 -eq in North America. The simulated policy shows that promoting extensive livestock per se does not meet the objectives of the Common Agricultural Policy and the EU Green Deal. The TRS should be complemented with policies to foster crop diversification and promote the use of domestic feed sources (e.g., legumes) to effectively ensure feed self-sufficiency and that extensive cattle production in the EU does not lead to deforestation in carbon-rich countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the EU, several environmental regulations aim at protecting the environment from agricultural nitrogen and phosphorus losses. The German regulation on farmers' nutrient management, especially implementing the EU Nitrates Directive, was revised in 2017. It comprises considerable tightening of numerous measures and costs for farmers to comply with. We provide the first systematic farm-level analysis of compliance costs of the recent revision in a case study for the federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia. To do so, we apply a bio-economic optimisation model at farm level to a representative sample of specialized dairy and pig farms. The sample is derived by Latin Hypercube sampling based on the observed distribution of farm characteristics from official agricultural statistics. Modelling results are evaluated by grouping of farms and a statistical meta-model. Results show highly heterogeneous compliance costs reaching from 0 to 2.66 Euro per pig and 0 to 0.83 cent per kg milk. 47.3% of pig and 38.4% of dairy farms do not face any costs. Pig farms with high compliance costs are characterized by high stocking density, the absence of low-emission manure application techniques and phosphorus-enriched soils. Dairy farms with high compliance costs have no low-emission manure application techniques and a high share of grassland. For dairy farms, stricter thresholds for nutrient application do not cause any compliance costs. The meta-model reveals the large effect of prices and assumptions regarding the fertilizer management on compliance costs. Results are of relevance beyond the case study area as other regions in the EU have a similar agricultural structure and need to fulfill the same EU directives. Policymakers need to be aware that high compliance costs increase the incentive of non-compliance and also consider heterogeneous impacts when designing complementary policies. Future research should focus on long-term adaption of farmers and include transaction costs as well as technical progress. • German implementation of the Nitrates Directive was revised in 2017. • On-farm compliance costs are highly heterogeneous between farms. • For pig and dairy farms, existing manure application technique is major cost driver. • Pig farms with high stocking density face costs to lower phosphate surplus. • Sampling approach generates representative farm sample under restricted data access. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts of climate change on European agricultural production, land use and the environment depend on its impact on crop yields. However, many impact studies assume that crop management remains unchanged in future scenarios, while farmers may adapt their sowing dates and cultivar thermal time requirements to minimize yield losses or realize yield gains. The main objective of this study was to investigate the sensitivity of climate change impacts on European crop yields, land use, production and environmental variables to adaptations in crops sowing dates and varieties' thermal time requirements. A crop, economic and environmental model were coupled in an integrated assessment modelling approach for six important crops, for 27 countries of the European Union (EU27) to assess results of three SRES climate change scenarios to 2050. Crop yields under climate change were simulated considering three different management cases; (i) no change in crop management from baseline conditions (NoAd), (ii) adaptation of sowing date and thermal time requirements to give highest yields to 2050 (Opt) and (iii) a more conservative adaptation of sowing date and thermal time requirements (Act). Averaged across EU27, relative changes in water-limited crop yields due to climate change and increased CO 2 varied between − 6 and + 21% considering NoAd management, whereas impacts with Opt management varied between + 12 and + 53%, and those under Act management between − 2 and + 27%. However, relative yield increases under climate change increased to + 17 and + 51% when technology progress was also considered. Importantly, the sensitivity to crop management assumptions of land use, production and environmental impacts were less pronounced than for crop yields due to the influence of corresponding market, farm resource and land allocation adjustments along the model chain acting via economic optimization of yields. We conclude that assumptions about crop sowing dates and thermal time requirements affect impact variables but to a different extent and generally decreasing for variables affected by economic drivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]