1. Big Data Palaeoecology reveals significant variation in Black Death mortality in Europe [Preprint]
- Author
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Izdebski, A., Guzowski, P., Poniat, R., Masci, L., Palli, J., Vignola, C., Bauch, M., Cocozza, C., Fernandes, R., Ljungqvist, F. C., Newfield, T., Seim, A., Abel-Schaad, D., Alba-Sánchez, F., Björkman, L., Brauer, A., Brown, A., Czerwiński, S., Ejarque, A., Fiłoc, M., Florenzano, A., Fredh, E. D., Fyfe, R., Jasiunas, N., Kołaczek, P., Kouli, K., 1, Kozáková, R., Kupryjanowicz, M., Lagerås, P., Lamentowicz, M., Lindbladh, M., López-Sáez, J. A., Luelmo-Lautenschlaeger, R., Marcisz, K., Mazier, F., Mensing, S., Mercuri, A. M., Milecka, K., Miras, Y., Noryśkiewicz, A. M., Novenko, E., Obremska, M., Panajiotidis, S., Papadopoulou, M. L., Pędziszewska, A., Pérez-Díaz, S., Piovesan, G., Pluskowski, A., Pokorny, P., Poska, A., Reitalu, T., Rösch, M., Sadori, L., Sá Ferreira, C., Sebag, D., Słowiński, M., Stančikaitė, M., Stivrins, N., Tunno, I., Veski, S., Wacnik, A., Masi, A., Universidad de Cantabria, Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History (MPI-SHH), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Uniwersytet Jagielloński w Krakowie = Jagiellonian University (UJ), University of Bialystok, Department of Earth Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, Università degli Studi di Roma 'La Sapienza' = Sapienza University [Rome] (UNIROMA), Department of Environmental Biology, Sapienza University of Rome, Università degli studi della Tuscia [Viterbo], Leibniz Institute for the History and Culture of Eastern Europe (GWZO), Universität Leipzig, ArchaeoBioCenter, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, München, Germany, School of Archaeology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK, Masaryk University [Brno] (MUNI), Stockholm University, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study [Uppsala], Department of History, Georgetown University, Washington DC, USA, Department of biology, georgetown University, Washington DC, Chair of Forest Growth and Dendroecology, University of Freiburg, Institute of Botany [Innsbruck], Leopold Franzens Universität Innsbruck - University of Innsbruck, Universidad de Granada = University of Granada (UGR), Viscum Pollenanalys & Miljöhistoria, Nässjö, Sweden, German Research Centre for Geosciences - Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam (GFZ), Institute of Geosciences [Potsdam], University of Potsdam = Universität Potsdam, Wessex Archaeology [Salisbury], Department of Archaeology and Centre for Past Climate Change, University of Reading, Reading, UK, Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań (UAM), Laboratoire de Géographie Physique et Environnementale (GEOLAB), Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP)-Institut Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société (IR SHS UNILIM), Université de Limoges (UNILIM)-Université de Limoges (UNILIM)-Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA), Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (UMR ISEM), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR226-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Department of Palaeobiology, Faculty of Biology, University of Białystok, Białystok, Poland, Laboratory of Palynology and Palaeobotany, Department of Life Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy, The Arctic University of Norway [Tromsø, Norway] (UiT), School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences [Plymouth] (SoGEES), Plymouth University, University of Latvia (LU), National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (NKUA), Institute of Archaeology of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, The Archaeologists, National Historical Museums, Lund, Sweden, Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Environmental Archaeology Research Group, Institute of History, CSIC, Madrid, Spain, Department of Geography, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain, Géographie de l'environnement (GEODE), Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès (UT2J), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, USA, Histoire naturelle de l'Homme préhistorique (HNHP), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Nicolaus Copernicus University [Toruń], MSU Faculty of Geography [Moscow], Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU), Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation, Institute of Geological Sciences, Polish Academy of Sciences, Polska Akademia Nauk = Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN), Laboratory of Forest Botany-Geobotany, School of Forestry and Natural Environment, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece, University of Cologne, Faculty of Biology [Gdansk, Poland], University of Gdańsk (UG), Department of Geography, Urban and Regional Planning, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain., Centre for Theoretical Studies, Charles University, Czechia (CTS), Charles University [Prague] (CU)-Czech Academy of Sciences [Prague] (CAS), Institute of Geology at Tallinn, Tallinn University of Technology (TTÜ), Universität Heidelberg [Heidelberg] = Heidelberg University, Queen's University [Belfast] (QUB), IFP Energies nouvelles (IFPEN), Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of Sciences, Nature Research Centre, Institute of Geology and Geography, Vilnius, Lithuania, Center for Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (CAMS), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Lawrence, CA, USA, W. Szafer Institute of Botany, Polish Academy of Sciences, European Project: 263735,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2010-StG_20091209,TEC(2010), Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History, Kahlaische Str. 10, 07745, Jena, Germany, Faculty of History and International Relations, University of Bialystok, Bialystok, Poland, Department of Earth Science, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy, Department of Environmental Biology, Sapienza University of Rome, Piazzale Aldo Moro 5, 00185 Roma, Italy, Leibniz Institute for the History and Culture of Eastern Europe (GWZO), Leipzig, Germany, Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study, Uppsala, Sweden, Chair of Forest Growth and Dendroecology, Institute of Forest Sciences, Albert-Ludwigs-University Freiburg, Freiburg, Universität Innsbruck [Innsbruck], GFZ-German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Potsdam, Germany, Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, Wessex Archaeology, Portway House, Salisbury, UK, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), The Arctic University of Norway (UiT), Institute of Archeology, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republi, Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès (UT2J)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia., Department of Quaternary Research, Institute of Geography Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, Russia, Institute of Geological Sciences, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland., Laboratory of Palaeoecology and Archaeobotany, Department of Plant Ecology, Faculty of Biology, University of Gdańsk, Gdańsk, Poland., Charles University [Prague] (CU), Department of Geology, Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, Estonia, Lund University [Lund], Department of Geology, Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, Estonia., Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia, University of Tartu, Universität Heidelberg [Heidelberg], IFP Energies Nouvelles, Earth Sciences and Environmental Technologies Division, Rueil-Malmaison, Rueil-Malmaison, Past Landscape Dynamics Laboratory, Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland., 3 Department of Geology, Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, Estonia, W. Szafer Institute of Botany, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland., Institute of History, Jagiellonian University in Krakow, Krakow, Poland, Department of Agriculture and Forest Sciences (Dafne), University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy, Department of Ecological and Biological Sciences (Deb), University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy., Faculty of Arts, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic, Department of Botany, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria, Department of Botany, University of Granada, Granada, Spain, Climate Change Ecology Research Unit, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland., Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP)-Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020])-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA)-Institut Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société (IR SHS UNILIM), Université de Limoges (UNILIM)-Université de Limoges (UNILIM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ISEM, UMR 5554, Université Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, Museum of Archaeology, University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, UK, Department of Geography, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia., Climate Change Ecology Research Unit, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland, Department of Geology and Geoenvironment, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece, Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Alnarp, Sweden, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès (UT2J), Anthropocene Research Unit, Faculty of Geographical and Geological Sciences, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, CNRS, HNHP UMR 7194, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, Institut de Paléontologie Humaine, Paris, France, Institute of Archaeology, Faculty of History, Nicolaus Copernicus University, Toruń, Poland., Centre for Climate Change Research, Nicolaus Copernicus University, Toruń, Poland, Institute of Geography, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany, Department of Ecological and Biological Sciences (Deb), University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy, Centre for Theoretical Study, Charles University and Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic., Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden, Department of Pre- and Early History and West Asian Archaeology, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany, School of Natural and Built Environment, Queen’s University, Belfast, Northern Ireland, Department of Geography, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia, Institute of Latvian History, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia., Max Planck Society, Estonian Research Council, European Research Council, Latvian Council of Science, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte (España), Swedish Research Council, Volkswagen Foundation, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), López Sáez, José Antonio [0000-0002-3122-2744], López Sáez, José Antonio, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR226-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)
- Subjects
Land-use changes ,Ecology ,black death pandemic ,Humaniora: 000::Arkeologi: 090 [VDP] ,palaeoecological data ,[SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography ,paleoecology ,palynology, big data, paleoecology ,Europe ,big data ,[SHS.ENVIR]Humanities and Social Sciences/Environmental studies ,[SDE]Environmental Sciences ,[SHS.HIST]Humanities and Social Sciences/History ,palynology ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics - Abstract
The authors acknowledge the following funding sources: Max Planck Independent Research Group, Palaeo-Science and History Group (A.I., A.M. and C.V.); Estonian Research Council #PRG323, PUT1173 (A.Pos., T.R., N.S. and S.V.); European Research Council #FP7 263735 (A.Bro. and A.Plu.), #MSC 655659 (A.E.); Georgetown Environmental Initiative (T.N.); Latvian Council of Science #LZP-2020/2-0060 (N.S. and N.J.); LLNL-JRNL-820941 (I.T.); NSF award #GSS-1228126 (S.M.); Polish-Swiss Research Programme #013/2010 CLIMPEAT (M.Lam.), #086/2010 CLIMPOL (A.W.); Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education #N N306 275635 (M.K.); Polish National Science Centre #2019/03/X/ST10/00849 (M.Lam.), #2015/17/B/ST10/01656 (M.Lam.), #2015/17/B/ST10/03430 (M.So.), #2018/31/B/ST10/02498 (M.So.), #N N304 319636 (A.W.); SCIEX #12.286 (K.Mar.); Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness #REDISCO-HAR2017-88035-P (J.A.L.S.); Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture and Sports #FPU16/00676 (R.L.L.); Swedish Research Council #421-2010-1570 (P.L.), #2018-01272 (F.C.L. and A.S.); Volkswagen Foundation Freigeist Fellowship Dantean Anomaly (M.B.), Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation #RTI2018-101714-B-I00 (F.A.S. and D.A.S.), OP RDE, MEYS project #CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000728 (P.P.)., The Black Death (1347–1352 ce) is the most renowned pandemic in human history, believed by many to have killed half of Europe’s population. However, despite advances in ancient DNA research that conclusively identified the pandemic’s causative agent (bacterium Yersinia pestis), our knowledge of the Black Death remains limited, based primarily on qualitative remarks in medieval written sources available for some areas of Western Europe. Here, we remedy this situation by applying a pioneering new approach, ‘big data palaeoecology’, which, starting from palynological data, evaluates the scale of the Black Death’s mortality on a regional scale across Europe. We collected pollen data on landscape change from 261 radiocarbon-dated coring sites (lakes and wetlands) located across 19 modern-day European countries. We used two independent methods of analysis to evaluate whether the changes we see in the landscape at the time of the Black Death agree with the hypothesis that a large portion of the population, upwards of half, died within a few years in the 21 historical regions we studied. While we can confirm that the Black Death had a devastating impact in some regions, we found that it had negligible or no impact in others. These inter-regional differences in the Black Death’s mortality across Europe demonstrate the significance of cultural, ecological, economic, societal and climatic factors that mediated the dissemination and impact of the disease. The complex interplay of these factors, along with the historical ecology of plague, should be a focus of future research on historical pandemics., Max Planck Independent Research Group, Palaeo-Science and History Group, Estonian Research Council PRG323 PUT1173, European Research Council (ERC) European Commission FP7 263735 MSC 655659, Georgetown Environmental Initiative, Latvian Ministry of Education and Science LZP-2020/2-0060 LLNL-JRNL-820941, National Science Foundation (NSF) GSS-1228126, Polish-Swiss Research Programme 013/2010 086/2010, Ministry of Science and Higher Education, Poland N306 275635, Polish National Science Centre 2019/03/X/ST10/00849 2015/17/B/ST10/01656 2015/17/B/ST10/03430 2018/31/B/ST10/02498 N N304 319636, SCIEX 12.286, Spanish Government REDISCO-HAR2017-88035-P FPU16/00676, Swedish Research Council, European Commission 421-2010-1570 2018-01272, Volkswagen Foundation Freigeist Fellowship Dantean Anomaly, Spanish Government RTI2018-101714-B-I00, OP RDE, MEYS project CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000728
- Published
- 2022