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Aquaculture's role in addressing food security has grown, with a spotlight on Asian carp species. Polyculture, i.e. cultivating multiple fish species in a single system, is being increasingly adopted for its resource efficiency and economic benefits. This practice for Asian fish for food and ornamental purposes is gaining traction in Europe despite their invasive potential. Rising temperatures due to climate change offer an opportunity for thermophilic Asian carps (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix and Aristichthys nobilis). Using GIS modeling (Maxent), we identified the possible settlement of Asian carp in Northern Europe amidst climate change. We analyzed carp global distribution centers, assessed the potential carp spread in Europe, and evaluated their potential suitability for polyculture systems. By 2050, H. molitrix may extend its range to 58–62° N latitude, with a potential 1.7-fold habitat increase, while A. nobilis, which are more heat-tolerant, may move north to 52–58° N latitude, with a 1.3-fold potential increase. Despite the slight ecological differences in their native habitats, niche modeling indicates that these carp can occupy similar niches in Europe (proven statistically). The eventuality of using Asian species for polyculture in Europe presents both opportunities and challenges in the face of a changing climate as long as invasion risks are prevented. Envisaging such polyculture, yet very carefully for the protection of ecosystems, can help food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the modern world, when the problems of the environment are most acutely associated with climate change, amphibians are considered to be the most vulnerable group of anamniotes as an indicator of the state of wetlands. Along with a decrease of numbers among amphibians in Europe, nowadays newts especially suffer from the impact of invasive species, in particular predators such as the Chinese sleeper, Perccottus glenii. This predatory fish species has recently spread to areas of primary relevance for newt reproduction. This fish consumes eggs, larvae, and even adult newt individuals. Using an ecological niche approach and climate based species distribution models (SDM), we applied the coefficient of determination (R2) for comparing the level of similarity of the built SDM for the newts Triturus cristatus and Lissotriton vulgaris, and the Chinese sleeper. We show that by 2050, the level of climatic niche similarity for these native and invasive species will increase from 12% to 22% throughout Europe, and from 44% to 66% in Eastern Europe. This study highlights the expansion of the Chinese sleeper as a real threat to European biodiversity of wetlands in the near future, especially in their most northeastern distribution range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spread and outbreaks of phytophagous pests are often associated with global warming. In addition to economic interest, these species may be of interest in terms of biological indication of climate changes. In this context, we considered the locust digitate leafminer Parectopa robiniella Clemens, 1863 (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae). This phytophage was first discovered in Europe in 1970 near Milano in Italy. Since then, it has been spreading across the continent. In Ukraine, it was recorded for the first time in 2003. In 2020–2021, we found areas of massive leaf damage caused by the black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia) in locations on Trukhaniv Island in Kyiv and some places in the Kyiv administrative region. Using 1041 georeferenced records of P. robiniella across Europe and a Bayesian additive regression trees algorithm (BART), we modeled the distribution of the moth. Predictors of current climate (WorldClim v.2, CliMond v.1.2 and ENVIREM) and a black locust habitat suitability raster were employed. Sets of SDMs built for P. robiniella with and without the habitat suitability raster for the host tree performed equally well. Amongst the factors that determine the niche of the locust digitate leafminer, most important are temperature-related conditions assumed to facilitate the spread and naturalization of the pest. In Ukraine, the appearance of the moth has coincided with increasing mean annual temperatures. Particularly favorable for the species are areas in the west and south-west of the country, and Transcarpathia. In the near future, the moth could reach locations in Nordic countries, Estonia, the British Isles, Black Sea coastal areas in Turkey, further into Russia, etc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]