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BackgroundSafe and effective vaccines could help to end the ongoing Ebola virus disease epidemic in parts of west Africa, and mitigate future outbreaks of the virus. We assess the statistical validity and power of randomised controlled trial (RCT) and stepped-wedge cluster trial (SWCT) designs in Sierra Leone, where the incidence of Ebola virus disease is spatiotemporally heterogeneous, and is decreasing rapidly.MethodsWe projected district-level Ebola virus disease incidence for the next 6 months, using a stochastic model fitted to data from Sierra Leone. We then simulated RCT and SWCT designs in trial populations comprising geographically distinct clusters at high risk, taking into account realistic logistical constraints, and both individual-level and cluster-level variations in risk. We assessed false-positive rates and power for parametric and non-parametric analyses of simulated trial data, across a range of vaccine efficacies and trial start dates.FindingsFor an SWCT, regional variation in Ebola virus disease incidence trends produced increased false-positive rates (up to 0·15 at α=0·05) under standard statistical models, but not when analysed by a permutation test, whereas analyses of RCTs remained statistically valid under all models. With the assumption of a 6-month trial starting on Feb 18, 2015, we estimate the power to detect a 90% effective vaccine to be between 49% and 89% for an RCT, and between 6% and 26% for an SWCT, depending on the Ebola virus disease incidence within the trial population. We estimate that a 1-month delay in trial initiation will reduce the power of the RCT by 20% and that of the SWCT by 49%.InterpretationSpatiotemporal variation in infection risk undermines the statistical power of the SWCT. This variation also undercuts the SWCT's expected ethical advantages over the RCT, because an RCT, but not an SWCT, can prioritise vaccination of high-risk clusters.FundingUS National Institutes of Health, US National Science Foundation, and Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Human norovirus infection causes significant medical and financial costs in the USA and abroad. Some populations, including young children, the elderly, and the immunocompromised, are at heightened risk of infection with this virus and subsequent complications, while others, such as healthcare workers and food handlers are at increased risk of transmitting it, and some are at risk of both. Human noroviruses are heterogeneous with new strains emerging periodically. In addition to viral diversity, incompletely understood characteristics, such as virus–host cell binding and duration of immunity after infection add to the challenges of creating a norovirus vaccine. Although much progress has been made in recent years, many questions remain to be answered. In this review, we discuss the important areas and relevant literature in considering human norovirus vaccine development and potential targets for implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Serum antibodies play an important role in natural protection from rotavirus infection and disease, but conflicting estimates of association have emerged from epidemiological studies in different geographical settings. In this study, we aim to assess the relationship between pre-existing serum immunoglobulin (Ig)G and IgA titers with protection against rotavirus infection and disease in a birth cohort of Indian children. Children were recruited at birth and followed up for 36 months. Stool samples were collected every 2 weeks and during episodes of diarrhea and serum samples were obtained at least every 6 months. The incidence rate of rotavirus infection and diarrhea was 0.9 (95% CI: 0.88, 0.99) and 0.2 (95% CI: 0.19, 0.25) episodes per child year, respectively. The risk of rotavirus infection and diarrhea decreased with age, while antibody titers (IgG and IgA) increased with age. After adjusting for age and number of previous infections, higher levels of IgG and IgA were independently associated with reduced risk of rotavirus infection. However, we did not find a clear association of IgG or IgA with rotavirus diarrhea risk or a threshold level of protection. The study supports a correlation of serum antibodies in reducing the risk of rotavirus infections, however the potential of serum antibody titer as a correlate of protection is not clear for children in lower income settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We studied the transmission of rotavirus infection in households in peri-urban Ecuador in the vaccination era. Methods: Stool samples were collected from household contacts of child rotavirus cases, diarrhea controls and healthy controls following presentation of the index child to health facilities. Rotavirus infection status of contacts was determined by RT-qPCR. We examined factors associated with transmissibility (index-case characteristics) and susceptibility (household-contact characteristics). Results: Amongst cases, diarrhea controls and healthy control household contacts, infection attack rates (iAR) were 55%, 8% and 2%, (n = 137, 130, 137) respectively. iARs were higher from index cases with vomiting, and amongst siblings. Disease ARs were higher when the index child was <18 months and had vomiting, with household contact <10 years and those sharing a room with the index case being more susceptible. We found no evidence of asymptomatic infections leading to disease transmission. Conclusion: Transmission rates of rotavirus are high in households with an infected child, while background infections are rare. We have identified factors associated with transmission (vomiting/young age of index case) and susceptibility (young age/sharing a room/being a sibling of the index case). Vaccination may lead to indirect benefits by averting episodes or reducing symptoms in vaccinees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Noroviruses are a common cause of gastroenteritis worldwide, but outbreaks appear to be more common in industrialized countries than in developing countries, possibly reflecting differences in exposure and immunity. In this study, age-stratified sera from India and UK populations were analysed for the presence of norovirus-genogroup II specific IgG by a time resolved immunofluorescence assay and relative levels of antibodies in the two populations were compared. Antibody levels were higher among all age groups in India than in UK and increased with age in India, whereas in the UK, levels of antibody decreased in adulthood. These results indicate different patterns of exposure to noroviruses in the two countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Norovirus, the most commonly identified cause of both sporadic cases and outbreaks of infectious diarrhoea in developed countries, exhibits a complex epidemiology and has a strong wintertime seasonality. Viral populations are dynamic and evolve under positive selection pressure. Methods: Time series-adapted Poisson regression models were fitted to daily counts of laboratory reports of norovirus in England and Wales from 1993 to 2006. Findings: Inverse linear associations with daily temperature over the previous seven weeks (rate ratio (RR) = 0.85; 95% CI: 0.83 to 0.86 for every 1°C increase) and relative humidity over the previous five weeks (RR = 0.980; 95% CI: 0.973 to 0.987 for every 1% increase) were found, with temperature having a greater overall effect. The emergence of new norovirus variants (RR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.22) and low population immunity were also associated with heightened norovirus activity. Temperature and humidity, which may be localised, had highly consistent effects in each region of England and Wales. Conclusions: These results point to a complex interplay between host, viral and climatic factors driving norovirus epidemic patterns. Increases in norovirus are associated with cold, dry temperature, low population immunity and the emergence of novel genogroup 2 type 4 antigenic variants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a study that examined the capabilities of European countries to early identify common-source of foodborne virus outbreaks. Methodology; Capability of laboratories to detect virus and genotype; Requested data fields for entries of viral sequences in the historic database.

To gain understanding of surveillance and epidemiology of viral gastroenteritis outbreaks in Europe, we compiled data from 10 surveillance systems in the Foodborne Viruses in Europe network. Established surveillance systems found Norovirus to be responsible for >85% (N =3,714) of all nonbacterial outbreaks of gastroenteritis reported from 1995 to 2000. However, the absolute number and population-based rates of viral gastroenteritis outbreaks differed markedly among European surveillance systems. A wide range of estimates of the importance of foodborne transmission were also found. We review these differences within the context of the sources of outbreak surveillance information, clinical definitions, and structures of the outbreak surveillance systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors explore the importance of birth cohorts in understanding norovirus infection, epidemiology and immunity. They note on the importance of birth cohort studies in understanding the acquisition of protective immunity against a pathogen. They mention a birth cohort study in Mexico which showed that severe disease is restricted to the first 2 infections, that each infection reduces future disease risk.

Emerging Themes in Epidemiology is a new, online Open Access journal. This editorial — which coincides with the Journal's launch — describes its unique review and publication model. The editorial board and review process of ETE will be managed by research degree students and will therefore be a training ground for students (though final editorial control rests with senior faculty Associate Editors). With our mix of Open Access publishing and the strong involvement of students in editing and reviewing, we believe that Emerging Themes in Epidemiology will be a progressive medium for promoting new ideas in epidemiology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this first special theme issue, Emerging Themes in Epidemiology publishes a collection of articles on the theme of Epidemiology in conflict. Violent conflict is an issue of great sensitivity within public health, but more structured research and reasoned discussion will allow us to better mitigate the public health impacts of war, and place the public health community in a more informed position in discussions about possible interventions in future conflicts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article comments the study on the re-evaluation of epidemiological criteria for keying out outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis due to norovirus in the U.S. The author stressed that the data used in the study is limited that do not clearly reflect the overall occurrence of the outbreak. He asserted that the result of the study therefore fall short in providing the basic information about norovirus epidemiology.

The article discusses the changing epidemiology and understanding of the complex and varying dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the virus that causes the COVID-19 pandemic. The researchers retraced the steps through the questions that the community faced as the pandemic unfolded. It highlights the key roles of mathematical modeling and quantitative analyses of empirical data in addressing the questions and to better understand and control the pandemic.