Search

Background: Outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, especially those of a global nature, require rapid epidemiological analysis and information dissemination. The final products of those activities usually comprise internal memoranda and briefs within public health authorities and original research published in peer-reviewed journals. Using the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic as an example, we conducted a comprehensive time-stratified review of the published literature to describe the different types of epidemiological outputs., Methods and Findings: We identified and analyzed all published articles on the epidemiology of the SARS outbreak in Hong Kong or Toronto. The analysis was stratified by study design, research domain, data collection, and analytical technique. We compared the SARS-case and matched-control non-SARS articles published according to the timeline of submission, acceptance, and publication. The impact factors of the publishing journals were examined according to the time of publication of SARS articles, and the numbers of citations received by SARS-case and matched-control articles submitted during and after the epidemic were compared. Descriptive, analytical, theoretical, and experimental epidemiology concerned, respectively, 54%, 30%, 11%, and 6% of the studies. Only 22% of the studies were submitted, 8% accepted, and 7% published during the epidemic. The submission-to-acceptance and acceptance-to-publication intervals of the SARS articles submitted during the epidemic period were significantly shorter than the corresponding intervals of matched-control non-SARS articles published in the same journal issues (p<0.001 and p<0.01, respectively). The differences of median submission-to-acceptance intervals and median acceptance-to-publication intervals between SARS articles and their corresponding control articles were 106.5 d (95% confidence interval [CI] 55.0-140.1) and 63.5 d (95% CI 18.0-94.1), respectively. The median numbers of citations of the SARS articles submitted during the epidemic and over the 2 y thereafter were 17 (interquartile range [IQR] 8.0-52.0) and 8 (IQR 3.2-21.8), respectively, significantly higher than the median numbers of control article citations (15, IQR 8.5-16.5, p<0.05, and 7, IQR 3.0-12.0, p<0.01, respectively)., Conclusions: A majority of the epidemiological articles on SARS were submitted after the epidemic had ended, although the corresponding studies had relevance to public health authorities during the epidemic. To minimize the lag between research and the exigency of public health practice in the future, researchers should consider adopting common, predefined protocols and ready-to-use instruments to improve timeliness, and thus, relevance, in addition to standardizing comparability across studies. To facilitate information dissemination, journal managers should reengineer their fast-track channels, which should be adapted to the purpose of an emerging outbreak, taking into account the requirement of high standards of quality for scientific journals and competition with other online resources.

Hong Kong employed a strategy of intermittent public health and social measures alongside increasingly stringent travel regulations to eliminate domestic SARS-CoV-2 transmission. By analyzing 1899 genome sequences (>18% of confirmed cases) from 23-January-2020 to 26-January-2021, we reveal the effects of fluctuating control measures on the evolution and epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Hong Kong. Despite numerous importations, only three introductions were responsible for 90% of locally-acquired cases. Community outbreaks were caused by novel introductions rather than a resurgence of circulating strains. Thus, local outbreak prevention requires strong border control and community surveillance, especially during periods of less stringent social restriction. Non-adherence to prolonged preventative measures may explain sustained local transmission observed during wave four in late 2020 and early 2021. We also found that, due to a tight transmission bottleneck, transmission of low-frequency single nucleotide variants between hosts is rare. Hong Kong has used an elimination strategy to control SARS-CoV-2 with stringent measures including traveller quarantine. Here, the authors show that the majority of community-acquired cases until January 2021 resulted from three importations, and that increased transmission followed prolonged periods of restrictions, likely due to adherence fatigue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prolonged school closure has been adopted worldwide to control COVID-19. Indeed, UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization figures show that two-thirds of an academic year was lost on average worldwide due to COVID-19 school closures. Such pre-emptive implementation was predicated on the premise that school children are a core group for COVID-19 transmission. Using surveillance data from the Chinese cities of Shenzhen and Anqing together, we inferred that compared with the elderly aged 60 and over, children aged 18 and under and adults aged 19-59 were 75% and 32% less susceptible to infection, respectively. Using transmission models parametrized with synthetic contact matrices for 177 jurisdictions around the world, we showed that the lower susceptibility of school children substantially limited the effectiveness of school closure in reducing COVID-19 transmissibility. Our results, together with recent findings that clinical severity of COVID-19 in children is lower, suggest that school closure may not be ideal as a sustained, primary intervention for controlling COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: mask-wearing outside the home has been almost universal in Hong Kong since late January 2020 with very high compliance. Nevertheless, community spread of COVID-19 has still occurred. We aimed to assess the settings where COVID-19 transmission occurred and determine the fraction of transmission events that occurred in settings where masks are not usually worn.Methods: we reviewed detailed information provided by the Hong Kong Department of Health on local COVID-19 cases diagnosed up to 30 September 2020 to determine the most likely settings in which transmission occurred. We classified them in probably mask-on or mask-of and compared the prevalence of asymptomatic infections in these settings.Results: among the 2425 cases (65.3%, 2425/3711) with information on transmission setting, 77.6% of the transmission occurred in household and social settings where face masks are not usually worn. Infections that occurred in mask-on settings were more likely to be asymptomatic (adjusted odds ratio 1.33; 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.68).Conclusions: we conclude that universal mask-wearing can reduce transmission, but transmission can continue to occur in settings where face masks are not usually worn. The higher proportion of asymptomatic cases in mask-on settings could be related to a milder disease presentation or earlier case detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior studies on the association between traffic noise and mental health have been mostly conducted in settings with lower population densities. However, evidence is lacking in high population-density settings where traffic noise is more pervasive and varies by topography and the vertical elevation of the residential unit. This study aimed to assess the mental health impact of residential traffic noise in one of the world's most urbanised populations. Data were analysed from 13,401 participants aged ≥15 years in a prospective cohort in Hong Kong from 2009 to 2014. Residential traffic noise level was estimated using 3D-geocoding and validated models that accounted for sound propagation in a highly vertical landscape. The 24-h day-night exposure to traffic noise, denoted as L dn , was estimated with a 10-dB(A) penalty for night hours. Probable depression and mental wellbeing were assessed using the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 and the Short Form Health Questionnaire SF-12v2, respectively. Mixed effect regressions with random intercepts were used to examine the association between traffic noise and mental health outcomes. Residential road traffic noise (for each increment of 10 A-weighted decibels [dB(A)] 24-h average exposure) was associated with probable depression (odds ratio (OR) = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.31), and poorer mental wellbeing (mean difference = −0.19, 95% CI: 0.31, −0.06), adjusting for sociodemographics, smoking, body mass index, self-reported health, proximity to green space, and neighbourhood characteristics (average household income, population density, and Gini coefficient). The results were robust to further adjustment for air pollution. In stratified analyses, residential traffic noise was associated with probable depression and poorer mental wellbeing among students and individuals aged 15–34 years. Residential traffic noise was associated with probable depression and poorer mental wellbeing in a highly urbanised setting. As traffic noise is increasing in urban settings, the public health impact of noise pollution could be substantial. [Display omitted] • Traffic noise was associated with poorer mental health in a highly urbanised setting. • Night-time traffic noise >40 dB(A) was associated with probable depression. • Students and those aged 15–34 were at risk to mental health impact of traffic noise. • Reducing traffic noise could be associated with better population mental health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Since 2014, 17 human cases of infection with the newly emerged highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N6) virus have been identified in China to date. The epidemiologic characteristics of laboratory-confirmed A(H5N6) cases were compared to A(H5N1) and A(H7N9) cases in mainland China. Methods. Data on laboratory-confirmed H5N6, H5N1, and H7N9 cases identified in mainland China were analyzed to compare epidemiologic characteristics and clinical severity. Severity of confirmed H5N6, H5N1 and H7N9 cases was estimated based on the risk of severe outcomes in hospitalized cases. Results. H5N6 cases were older than H5N1 cases with a higher prevalence of underlying medical conditions but younger than H7N9 cases. Epidemiological time-to-event distributions were similar among cases infected with the 3 viruses. In comparison to a fatality risk of 70% (30/43) for hospitalized H5N1 cases and 41% (319/782) for hospitalized H7N9 cases, 12 (75%) out of the 16 hospitalized H5N6 cases were fatal, and 15 (94%) required mechanical ventilation. Conclusion. Similar epidemiologic characteristics and high severity were observed in cases of H5N6 and H5N1 virus infection, whereas severity of H7N9 virus infections appeared lower. Continued surveillance of human infections with avian influenza A viruses remains an essential component of pandemic influenza preparedness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Influenza virus infections are associated with a wide spectrum of disease. However, few studies have investigated in detail the epidemiological and virological characteristics of asymptomatic and mild illness with influenza virus infections. Methods. In a community-based study in Hong Kong from 2008 to 2014, we followed up initially healthy individuals who were household contacts of symptomatic persons with laboratory-confirmed influenza, to identify secondary infections. Information from daily symptom diaries was used to classify infections as symptomatic (=2 signs/symptoms, including fever =37.8°C, headache, myalgia, cough, sore throat, runny nose and sputum), paucisymptomatic (1 symptom only), or asymptomatic (none of these symptoms). We compared the patterns of influenza viral shedding between these groups. Results. We identified 235 virologically confirmed secondary cases of influenza virus infection in the household setting, including 31 (13%) paucisymptomatic and 25 (11%) asymptomatic cases. The duration of viral RNA shedding was shorter and declined more rapidly in paucisymptomatic and asymptomatic than in symptomatic cases. The mean levels of influenza viral RNA shedding in asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic cases were approximately 1-2 log10 copies lower than in symptomatic cases. Conclusions. The presence of influenza viral shedding in patients with influenza who have very few or no symptoms reflects their potential for transmitting the virus to close contacts. These findings suggest that further research is needed to investigate the contribution of persons with asymptomatic or clinically mild influenza virus infections to influenza virus transmission in household, institutional, and community settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since March 2013, a novel influenza A(H7N9) virus has caused 3 epidemic waves of human infection in mainland China. We analyzed data from patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H7N9) virus infection to estimate the risks for severe outcomes after hospitalization across the 3 waves. We found that hospitalized patients with confirmed infections in waves 2 and 3 were younger and more likely to be residing in small cities and rural areas than were patients in wave 1; they also had a higher risk for death, after adjustment for age and underlying medical conditions. Risk for death among hospitalized patients during waves 2 and 3 was lower in Jiangxi and Fujian Provinces than in eastern and southern provinces. The variation in risk for death among hospitalized case-patients in different areas across 3 epidemic waves might be associated with differences in case ascertainment, changes in clinical management, or virus genetic diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood illness caused by serotypes of the Enterovirus A species in the genus Enterovirus of the Picornaviridae family. The disease has had a substantial burden throughout East and Southeast Asia over the past 15 y. China reported 9 million cases of HFMD between 2008 and 2013, with the two serotypes Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) being responsible for the majority of these cases. Three recent phase 3 clinical trials showed that inactivated monovalent EV-A71 vaccines manufactured in China were highly efficacious against HFMD associated with EV-A71, but offered no protection against HFMD caused by CV-A16. To better inform vaccination policy, we used mathematical models to evaluate the effect of prospective vaccination against EV-A71-associated HFMD and the potential risk of serotype replacement by CV-A16. We also extended the model to address the co-circulation, and implications for vaccination, of additional non-EV-A71, non-CV-A16 serotypes of enterovirus.Methods and Findings: Weekly reports of HFMD incidence from 31 provinces in Mainland China from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013 were used to fit multi-serotype time series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) epidemic models. We obtained good model fit for the two-serotype TSIR with cross-protection, capturing the seasonality and geographic heterogeneity of province-level transmission, with strong correlation between the observed and simulated epidemic series. The national estimate of the basic reproduction number, R0, weighted by provincial population size, was 26.63 for EV-A71 (interquartile range [IQR]: 23.14, 30.40) and 27.13 for CV-A16 (IQR: 23.15, 31.34), with considerable variation between provinces (however, predictions about the overall impact of vaccination were robust to this variation). EV-A71 incidence was projected to decrease monotonically with higher coverage rates of EV-A71 vaccination. Across provinces, CV-A16 incidence in the post-EV-A71-vaccination period remained either comparable to or only slightly increased from levels prior to vaccination. The duration and strength of cross-protection following infection with EV-A71 or CV-A16 was estimated to be 9.95 wk (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.31, 23.40) in 68% of the population (95% CI: 37%, 96%). Our predictions are limited by the necessarily short and under-sampled time series and the possible circulation of unidentified serotypes, but, nonetheless, sensitivity analyses indicate that our results are robust in predicting that the vaccine should drastically reduce incidence of EV-A71 without a substantial competitive release of CV-A16.Conclusions: The ability of our models to capture the observed epidemic cycles suggests that herd immunity is driving the epidemic dynamics caused by the multiple serotypes of enterovirus. Our results predict that the EV-A71 and CV-A16 serotypes provide a temporary immunizing effect against each other. Achieving high coverage rates of EV-A71 vaccination would be necessary to eliminate the ongoing transmission of EV-A71, but serotype replacement by CV-A16 following EV-A71 vaccination is likely to be transient and minor compared to the corresponding reduction in the burden of EV-A71-associated HFMD. Therefore, a mass EV-A71 vaccination program of infants and young children should provide significant benefits in terms of a reduction in overall HFMD burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The novel influenza A(H7N9) virus has caused 2013 spring and 2013–2014 winter waves of human infections since its first emergence in China in March 2013. Exposure to live poultry is a risk factor for H7N9 infection. Public psychobehavioral responses often change during progression of an epidemic. Methods: We conducted population-based surveys in southern China to examine human exposure to live poultry, and population psychological response and behavioral changes in the two waves. In Guangzhou, an urban area of Guangdong province, we collected data using telephone surveys with random digit dialing in May-June 2013 and again in December 2013 to January 2014. In Zijin county, a rural area of the same province, we used door-to-door surveys under a stratified sampling design in July 2013 and again in December 2013 to January 2014. All responses were weighted by age and sex to the respective adult populations. Findings: Around half of the urban respondents (53.8%) reported having visited LPMs in the previous year in the first survey, around double that reported in the second survey (27.7%). In the rural surveys, around half of the participants reported raising backyard poultry in the past year in the first survey, increasing to 83.2% participants in the second survey. One third of urban subjects supported the permanent closure of LPMs in the first and second surveys, and factors associated with support for closure included female sex, higher level of worry towards H7N9, and worry induced by a hypothetical influenza-like illness. Conclusions: Our study indicated high human exposure to live poultry and low support for permanent closure of markets in both urban and rural residents regardless of increased worry during the epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Appropriate public health responses to infectious disease threats should be based on best-available evidence, which requires timely reliable data for appropriate analysis. During the early stages of epidemics, analysis of 'line lists' with detailed information on laboratory- confirmed cases can provide important insights into the epidemiology of a specific disease. The objective of the present study was to investigate the extent to which reliable epidemiologic inferences could be made from publicly-available epidemiologic data of human infection with influenza A(H7N9) virus. Methods We collated and compared six different line lists of laboratory-confirmed human cases of influenza A(H7N9) virus infection in the 2013 outbreak in China, including the official line list constructed by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention plus five other line lists by HealthMap, Virginia Tech, Bloomberg News, the University of Hong Kong and FluTrackers, based on publicly-available information. We characterized clinical severity and transmissibility of the outbreak, using line lists available at specific dates to estimate epidemiologic parameters, to replicate real-time inferences on the hospitalization fatality risk, and the impact of live poultry market closure. Results Demographic information was mostly complete (less than 10% missing for all variables) in different line lists, but there were more missing data on dates of hospitalization, discharge and health status (more than 10% missing for each variable). The estimated onset to hospitalization distributions were similar (median ranged from 4.6 to 5.6 days) for all line lists. Hospital fatality risk was consistently around 20% in the early phase of the epidemic for all line lists and approached the final estimate of 35% afterwards for the official line list only. Most of the line lists estimated >90% reduction in incidence rates after live poultry market closures in Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou. Conclusions We demonstrated that analysis of publicly-available data on H7N9 permitted reliable assessment of transmissibility and geographical dispersion, while assessment of clinical severity was less straightforward. Our results highlight the potential value in constructing a minimum dataset with standardized format and definition, and regular updates of patient status. Such an approach could be particularly useful for diseases that spread across multiple countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dairy products consumption is increasingly common globally. Most of the evidence concerning dairy products comes from observational studies in western populations which are inevitably open to confounding. To triangulate the evidence concerning dairy products, we examined the associations of whole cow's milk consumption with cardiovascular risk factors in a non-Western setting with a different pattern of milk consumption and cardiovascular diseases from Western populations. Methods: We used multivariable censored linear or logistic regression to examine cross-sectionally the adjusted associations of whole cow's milk consumption (none (n = 14892), 1–3/week (n = 2689) and 3+/week (n = 2754)) with cardiovascular risk factors in Chinese (≥50 years) in the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study. Results: Whole cow's milk consumption was negatively associated with systolic blood pressure (3+/week compared to none −2.56 mmHg, 95% confidence interval (CI) −3.63 to −1.49), diastolic blood pressure (−1.32 mmHg, 95% CI −1.87 to −0.77) and triglycerides (−0.06 mmol/L, 95% CI −0.11 to −0.002), but was positively associated with HDL-cholesterol (0.02 mmol/L,95% CI 0.01 to 0.04) and fasting glucose (0.08 mmol/L, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.16) adjusted for age, sex, phase of study, socio-economic position, lifestyle (smoking, alcohol use and physical activity) and adiposity, but had no obvious association with LDL-cholesterol or the presence of diabetes. Conclusions: Whole cow's milk consumption had heterogeneous associations with cardiovascular risk factors. Higher whole cow's milk consumption was associated with lower levels of specific cardiovascular risk factors which might suggest risk factor specific biological pathways with different relations to blood pressure and lipids than glucose. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Observational studies show moderate alcohol use negatively associated with ischemic heart disease (IHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, healthier attributes among moderate users compared to never users may confound the apparent association. A potentially less biased way to examine the association is Mendelian randomization, using alcohol metabolizing genes which influence alcohol use. Methods: We used instrumental variable analysis with aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) genotypes (AA/GA/GG) as instrumental variables for alcohol use to examine the association of alcohol use (10 g ethanol/day) with CVD risk factors (blood pressure, lipids and glucose) and morbidity (self-reported IHD and CVD) among men in the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study. Results: ALDH2 genotypes were a credible instrument for alcohol use (F-statistic 74.6). Alcohol was positively associated with HDL-cholesterol (0.05 mmol/L per alcohol unit, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02 to 0.08) and diastolic blood pressure (1.15 mmHg, 95% CI 0.23 to 2.07) but not with systolic blood pressure (1.00 mmHg, 95% CI -0.74 to 2.74), LDL-cholesterol (0.03 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.03 to 0.08), log transformed triglycerides (0.03 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.08) or log transformed fasting glucose (0.01 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.006 to 0.03), self-reported CVD (odds ratio (OR) 0.98, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.27) or self-reported IHD (OR 1.10, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.45). Conclusion: Low to moderate alcohol use among men had the expected effects on most CVD risk factors but not fasting glucose. Larger studies are needed to confirm the null associations with IHD, CVD and fasting glucose. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: With economic development and population aging, ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is becoming a leading cause of mortality with widening inequalities in China. To forewarn the trends in China we projected IHD trends in the most economically developed part of China, i.e., Hong Kong. Methods: Based on sex-specific IHD mortality rates from 1976 to 2005, we projected mortality rates by neighborhood-level socio-economic position (i.e., low- or high-income groups) to 2020 in Hong Kong using Poisson age-period-cohort models with autoregressive priors. Results: In the low-income group, age-standardized IHD mortality rates among women declined from 33.3 deaths in 1976–1980 to 19.7 per 100,000 in 2016–2020 (from 55.5 deaths to 34.2 per 100,000 among men). The rates in the high-income group were initially higher in both sexes, particularly among men, but this had reversed by the end of the study periods. The rates declined faster for the high-income group than for the low-income group in both sexes. The rates were projected to decline faster in the high-income group, such that by the end of the projection period the high-income group would have lower IHD mortality rates, particularly for women. Birth cohort effects varied with sex, with a marked upturn in IHD mortality around 1945, i.e., for the first generation of men to grow up in a more economically developed environment. There was no such upturn in women. Birth cohort effects were the main drivers of change in IHD mortality rates. Conclusion: IHD mortality rates are declining in Hong Kong and are projected to continue to do so, even taking into account greater vulnerability for the first generation of men born into a more developed environment. At the same time social disparities in IHD have reversed and are widening, partly as a result of a cohort effect, with corresponding implications for prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is some evidence that annual vaccination of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) may lead to reduced vaccine immunogenicity but evidence is lacking on whether vaccine efficacy is affected by prior vaccination history. The efficacy of one dose of TIV in children 6–8 y of age against influenza B is uncertain. We examined whether immunogenicity and efficacy of influenza vaccination in school-age children varied by age and past vaccination history. Methods and Findings: We conducted a randomized controlled trial of 2009–10 TIV. Influenza vaccination history in the two preceding years was recorded. Immunogenicity was assessed by comparison of HI titers before and one month after receipt of TIV/placebo. Subjects were followed up for 11 months with symptom diaries, and respiratory specimens were collected during acute respiratory illnesses to permit confirmation of influenza virus infections. We found that previous vaccination was associated with reduced antibody responses to TIV against seasonal A(H1N1) and A(H3N2) particularly in children 9–17 y of age, but increased antibody responses to the same lineage of influenza B virus in children 6–8 y of age. Serological responses to the influenza A vaccine viruses were high regardless of vaccination history. One dose of TIV appeared to be efficacious against confirmed influenza B in children 6–8 y of age regardless of vaccination history. Conclusions: Prior vaccination was associated with lower antibody titer rises following vaccination against seasonal influenza A vaccine viruses, but higher responses to influenza B among individuals primed with viruses from the same lineage in preceding years. In a year in which influenza B virus predominated, no impact of prior vaccination history was observed on vaccine efficacy against influenza B. The strains that circulated in the year of study did not allow us to study the effect of prior vaccination on vaccine efficacy against influenza A. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The key epidemiological difference between pandemic and seasonal influenza is that the population is largely susceptible during a pandemic, whereas, during non-pandemic seasons a level of immunity exists. The population-level efficacy of household-based mitigation strategies depends on the proportion of infections that occur within households. In general, mitigation measures such as isolation and quarantine are more effective at the population level if the proportion of household transmission is low. Methods/Results: We calculated the proportion of infections within households during pandemic years compared with non-pandemic years using a deterministic model of household transmission in which all combinations of household size and individual infection states were enumerated explicitly. We found that the proportion of infections that occur within households was only partially influenced by the hazard h of infection within household relative to the hazard of infection outside the household, especially for small basic reproductive numbers. During pandemics, the number of withinhousehold infections was lower than one might expect for a given h because many of the susceptible individuals were infected from the community and the number of susceptible individuals within household was thus depleted rapidly. In addition, we found that for the value of h at which 30% of infections occur within households during non-pandemic years, a similar 31% of infections occur within households during pandemic years. Interpretation: We suggest that a trade off between the community force of infection and the number of susceptible individuals in a household explains an apparent invariance in the proportion of infections that occur in households in our model. During a pandemic, although there are more susceptible individuals in a household, the community force of infection is very high. However, during non-pandemic years, the force of infection is much lower but there are fewer susceptible individuals within the household. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As economic development increases, puberty occurs at younger ages, and this could contribute to an increase in the incidence of cardiovascular diseases and hormone-related cancers. The factors that determine pubertal timing are poorly understood. The growth axis that is active during puberty is active in the first 6 months of life and interacts with the immune system. The authors examined whether prior infections, proxied by number of hospital admissions for infections at different ages, were associated with age at pubertal onset (Tanner stage II) using interval-censored regression in the Children of 1997 cohort, which is a population-representative Chinese birth cohort (n = 7,527). Mediation by growth was also examined. Girls, but not boys, who were hospitalized for infections at least twice in the first 6 months of life experienced pubertal onset about 8 months later (mean = 10.3 years, time ratio = 1.08, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.12) than did those without such hospitalizations (mean = 9.6 years) after adjustment for infant characteristics and socioeconomic position (sex interaction: P = 0.02). There were no such associations for infections at 6 months to ≤8 years of age. Growth did not mediate the association. Early infectious morbidity in girls may be associated with later puberty, perhaps via suppression of the gonadotropic axis. The lowering of the number of infections in early life that accompanies economic development could be an additional factor that contributes to earlier puberty. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: The 2002-2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak infected 8,422 individuals leading to 916 deaths around the world. However, there have been few epidemiological studies of SARS comparing epidemiologic features across regions. The aim of this study is to identify similarities and differences in SARS epidemiology in three populations with similar host and viral genotype. Methods: We present a comparative epidemiologic analysis of SARS, based on an integrated dataset with 3,336 SARS patients from Hong Kong, Beijing and Taiwan, epidemiological and clinical characteristics such as incubation, onset-to-admission, onset-to-discharge and onset-to-death periods, case fatality ratios (CFRs) and presenting symptoms are described and compared between regions. We further explored the influence of demographic and clinical variables on the apparently large differences in CFRs between the three regions. Results: All three regions showed similar incubation periods and progressive shortening of the onset-to-admission interval through the epidemic. Adjusted for sex, health care worker status and nosocomial setting, older age was associated with a higher fatality, with adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 2.10 (95% confidence interval: 1.45, 3.04) for those aged 51-60; AOR: 4.57 (95% confidence interval: 3.32, 7.30) for those aged above 60 compared to those aged 41-50 years. Presence of pre-existing comorbid conditions was also associated with greater mortality (AOR: 1.74; 95% confidence interval: 1.36, 2.21). Conclusion: The large discrepancy in crude fatality ratios across the three regions can only be partly explained by epidemiological and clinical heterogeneities. Our findings underline the importance of a common data collection platform, especially in an emerging epidemic, in order to identify and explain consistencies and differences in the eventual clinical and public health outcomes of infectious disease outbreaks, which is becoming increasingly important in our highly interconnected world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The effectiveness of single-drug antiviral interventions to reduce morbidity and mortality during the next influenza pandemic will be substantially weakened if transmissible strains emerge which are resistant to the stockpiled antiviral drugs. We developed a mathematical model to test the hypothesis that a small stockpile of a secondary antiviral drug could be used to mitigate the adverse consequences of the emergence of resistant strains. Methods and Findings: We used a multistrain stochastic transmission model of influenza to show that the spread of antiviral resistance can be significantly reduced by deploying a small stockpile (1% population coverage) of a secondary drug during the early phase of local epidemics. We considered two strategies for the use of the secondary stockpile: early combination chemotherapy (ECC; individuals are treated with both drugs in combination while both are available); and sequential multidrug chemotherapy (SMC; individuals are treated only with the secondary drug until it is exhausted, then treated with the primary drug). We investigated all potentially important regions of unknown parameter space and found that both ECC and SMC reduced the cumulative attack rate (AR) and the resistant attack rate (RAR) unless the probability of emergence of resistance to the primary drug pA was so low (less than 1 in 10,000) that resistance was unlikely to be a problem or so high (more than 1 in 20) that resistance emerged as soon as primary drug monotherapy began. For example, when the basic reproductive number was 1.8 and 40% of symptomatic individuals were treated with antivirals, AR and RAR were 67% and 38% under monotherapy if pA = 0.01. If the probability of resistance emergence for the secondary drug was also 0.01, then SMC reduced AR and RAR to 57% and 2%. The effectiveness of ECC was similar if combination chemotherapy reduced the probabilities of resistance emergence by at least ten times. We extended our model using travel data between 105 large cities to investigate the robustness of these resistance-limiting strategies at a global scale. We found that as long as populations that were the main source of resistant strains employed these strategies (SMC or ECC), then those same strategies were also effective for populations far from the source even when some intermediate populations failed to control resistance. In essence, through the existence of many wild-type epidemics, the interconnectedness of the global network dampened the international spread of resistant strains. Conclusions: Our results indicate that the augmentation of existing stockpiles of a single anti-influenza drug with smaller stockpiles of a second drug could be an effective and inexpensive epidemiological hedge against antiviral resistance if either SMC or ECC were used. Choosing between these strategies will require additional empirical studies. Specifically, the choice will depend on the safety of combination therapy and the synergistic effect of one antiviral in suppressing the emergence of resistance to the other antiviral when both are taken in combination.

Summary: Background: Hand, foot, and mouth disease is a common childhood illness caused by enteroviruses. Increasingly, the disease has a substantial burden throughout east and southeast Asia. To better inform vaccine and other interventions, we characterised the epidemiology of hand, foot, and mouth disease in China on the basis of enhanced surveillance. Methods: We extracted epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory data from cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease reported to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention between Jan 1, 2008, and Dec 31, 2012. We then compiled climatic, geographical, and demographic information. All analyses were stratified by age, disease severity, laboratory confirmation status, and enterovirus serotype. Findings: The surveillance registry included 7 200 092 probable cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease (annual incidence, 1·2 per 1000 person-years from 2010–12), of which 267 942 (3·7%) were laboratory confirmed and 2457 (0·03%) were fatal. Incidence and mortality were highest in children aged 12–23 months (38·2 cases per 1000 person-years and 1·5 deaths per 100 000 person-years in 2012). Median duration from onset to diagnosis was 1·5 days (IQR 0·5–2·5) and median duration from onset to death was 3·5 days (2·5–4·5). The absolute number of patients with cardiopulmonary or neurological complications was 82  486 (case-severity rate 1·1%), and 2457 of 82486 patients with severe disease died (fatality rate 3·0%); 1617 of 1737 laboratory confirmed deaths (93%) were associated with enterovirus 71. Every year in June, hand, foot, and mouth disease peaked in north China, whereas southern China had semiannual outbreaks in May and September–October. Geographical differences in seasonal patterns were weakly associated with climate and demographic factors (variance explained 8–23% and 3–19%, respectively). Interpretation: This is the largest population-based study up to now of the epidemiology of hand, foot, and mouth disease. Future mitigation policies should take into account the heterogeneities of disease burden identified. Additional epidemiological and serological studies are warranted to elucidate the dynamics and immunity patterns of local hand, foot, and mouth disease and to optimise interventions. Funding: China–US Collaborative Program on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases, WHO, The Li Ka Shing Oxford Global Health Programme and Wellcome Trust, Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, and Health and Medical Research Fund, Government of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Background: There are few data in the literature on viral sequence variation between host generations/successive transmission events. Relatively little is known about the sequence heterogeneity of the influenza viruses transmitted within families. Objectives: To study the molecular epidemiology of influenza virus and to determine the sequence variation within an individual, a household and a community during the first wave of influenza pandemic in 2009. Study design: A prospective study of household transmission of influenza A in Hong Kong was conducted during the pandemic in 2009. The HA and NA sequences of pandemic and seasonal influenza A viral isolates identified in this household transmission study were sequences and analyzed. Results: Our results indicated that there were multiple introductions of influenza viruses into Hong Kong. Sequence analysis of these isolates suggested that members of these family clusters acquired the infection by household transmissions. Interestingly, unlike those concluded from previous household transmission studies, we observed sequence variations between sequential samples from the same person and also within the same household. Conclusions: Family clusters of influenza A viral infection are predominantly the result of secondary transmission within a household. Our results also suggested that the intra-host viral sequence variation might be more common that than previously thought. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In long-term developed countries socioeconomic position across the life course is positively associated with health. We examined these associations in a developing country with a history of efforts to reorganize the social hierarchy. Taking a life course perspective, we used multi-variable logistic regression to assess the association of socioeconomic disadvantage at four life stages (measured by parental possessions, education, longest-held occupation and current household income) with self-rated health, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and metabolic syndrome in 20,086 Chinese adults aged ≥50 years from the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study (2005–2008). Model comparisons were used to determine whether the number of exposures to disadvantage (accumulation of risk) was more important than the life stage of exposure (critical periods). Socioeconomic disadvantage across the life course was associated with poor self-rated health, COPD and, in women only, with metabolic syndrome. Adjusting for adult health-related behavior (smoking, alcohol use and physical exercise) altered these associations very little. Associations between socioeconomic disadvantage and health in this Southern Chinese population were broadly similar to those found in Western countries in terms of the accumulation of disadvantage across the life course. However, longest-held occupation was not independently associated with adult health and socioeconomic disadvantage was not associated with metabolic syndrome in men. This suggests that the mechanisms linking socioeconomic position to health in China may be different from those in Western populations and may require context-specific policy interventions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Purpose: Earlier pubertal maturation in women may be associated with better cognition. It is unclear whether or not this also occurs in men. We tested the hypothesis that earlier pubertal development in men was associated with better cognition in later adulthood in a developing Chinese population. Methods: Multivariable linear regression was used in cross-sectional study of 2463 older, Chinese men from the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study. Mean pubertal age was calculated as the mean of recalled ages of first nocturnal emission, voice breaking and pubarche. We assessed the association of mean pubertal age with delayed 10-word recall and mini-mental state examination (MMSE) scores. Results: Adjusted for age and education, 1 year earlier mean pubertal age was associated with higher delayed 10-word recall (0.06 [95% confidence interval = 0.02–0.10]) and higher MMSE (0.08 [0.03–0.13]) scores. Additional adjustment for childhood and adulthood socio-economic position, sitting height, and leg length did not change the results. Conclusions: These preliminary findings suggest earlier maturation in men is associated with better cognitive function in later adulthood. Whether pubertal timing is a marker of earlier life exposures or reflects a biological relation between somatrophic and/or gonadotrophic hormones and cognitive development is unclear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There are few data on the comparative epidemiology and virology of the pandemic 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus and cocirculating seasonal influenza A viruses in community settings. Methods: We recruited 348 index patients with acute respiratory illness from 14 outpatient clinics in Hong Kong in July and August 2009. We then prospectively followed household members of 99 patients who tested positive for influenza A virus on rapid diagnostic testing. We collected nasal and throat swabs from all household members at three home visits within 7 days for testing by means of quantitative reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) assay and viral culture. Using hemagglutination-inhibition and viral-neutralization assays, we tested baseline and convalescent serum samples from a subgroup of patients for antibody responses to the pandemic and seasonal influenza A viruses. Results: Secondary attack rates (as confirmed on RT-PCR assay) among household contacts of index patients were similar for the pandemic influenza virus (8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3 to 14) and seasonal influenza viruses (9%; 95% CI, 5 to 15). The patterns of viral shedding and the course of illness among index patients were also similar for the pandemic and seasonal influenza viruses. In a subgroup of patients for whom baseline and convalescent serum samples were available, 36% of household contacts who had serologic evidence of pandemic influenza virus infection did not shed detectable virus or report illness. Conclusions: Pandemic 2009 H1N1 virus has characteristics that are broadly similar to those of seasonal influenza A viruses in terms of rates of viral shedding, clinical illness, and transmissibility in the household setting. N Engl J Med 2010;362:2175-84. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Background Health authorities worldwide, especially in the Asia Pacific region, are seeking effective public-health interventions in the continuing epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). We assessed the epidemiology of SARS in Hong Kong. Methods We included 1425 cases reported up to April 28, 2003. An integrated database was constructed from several sources containing information on epidemiological, demographic, and clinical variables. We estimated the key epidemiological distributions: infection to onset, onset to admission, admission to death, and admission to discharge. We measured associations between the estimated case fatality rate and patients' age and the time from onset to admission. Findings After the initial phase of exponential growth, the rate of confirmed cases fell to less than 20 per day by April 28. Public-health interventions included encouragement to report to hospital rapidly after the onset of clinical symptoms, contact tracing for confirmed and suspected cases, and quarantining, monitoring, and restricting the travel of contacts. The mean incubation period of the disease is estimated to be 6.4 days (95% CI 5.2-7.7). The mean time from onset of clinical symptoms to admission to hospital varied between 3 and 5 days, with longer times earlier in the epidemic. The estimated case fatality rate was 13.2% (9.8-16.8) for patients younger than 60 years and 43.3% (35.2-52.4) for patients aged 60 years or older assuming a parametric γ distribution. A non-parametric method yielded estimates of 6.8% (4.0-9.6) and 55.0% (45.3-64.7), respectively. Case clusters have played an important part in the course of the epidemic. Interpretation Patients' age was strongly associated with outcome. The time between onset of symptoms and admission to hospital did not alter outcome, but shorter intervals will be important to the wider population by restricting the infectious period before patients are placed in quarantine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents strategies in maintaining surveillance during an influenza A H1N1 pandemic. It stresses the importance of accurately measuring a set of illness indicators that can be gathered at a population-wide level. Defining a process by which consistent samples from people with severe acute respiratory illness and mild acute respiratory illness or influenza-like illness are tested for pandemic H1N1 virus daily or weekly in sentinel population is advised. The isolation of virus from subsets of mild and severe cases is also suggested.