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Objective: With more teeth retained for longer in an ageing population, population‐wide periodontal treatment needs may increase. We assessed and projected periodontal treatment needs from 1997 to 2030 in Germany. Methods: Partial‐mouth probing‐pocket depths (PPDs) from repeated waves (1997, 2005, 2014) of the nationally representative German Oral Health Studies were transformed into full‐mouth PPDs via decision‐tree‐based ensemble‐modelling. In line with German healthcare‐regulations, teeth with PPD ≥ 4 mm were regarded as needing periodontal treatment. Weighted means were interpolated cross‐sectionally by fitting spline‐curves and then regressed longitudinally 1997–2030. Results: In 1997, younger adults (35–44 years old) had a mean of 7.4 teeth needing treatment (overall 93.8 million teeth); this decreased to 4.8 teeth (47.3 million teeth) in 2014. For 2030, we project 3.2 teeth (33.7 million teeth). In seniors, an increase was recorded (1997: 4.5 teeth, 33.5 million teeth; 2014: 7.5 teeth, 63.4 million teeth); this is expected to continue until 2030 (to 12.2 teeth, 140.8 million teeth). The cumulative number of teeth needing treatment increased from 2000 (355 million) to 2015 (365 million), and will increase further to 2030 (464 million). Conclusions: Population‐wide periodontal treatment needs may increase until 2030, mainly in the elderly. Concepts for addressing, these growing needs are required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives To plan dental services, a spatial estimation of future demands and supply is required. We aimed at estimating demand and supply in 2030 in Northern Germany based on the expected local socio-demography and oral-health-related morbidity, and the predicted number of dentists and their working time. Methods All analyses were performed on zip-code level. Register data were used to determine the number of retiring dentists and to construct regression models for estimating the number of dentists moving into each zip-code area until 2030. Demand was modelled using projected demography and morbidities. Demand-supply ratios were evaluated and spatial analyses applied. Sensitivity analyses were employed to assess robustness of our findings. Results Compared with 2011, the population decreased (−7% to −11%) and aged (from mean 46 to 51 years) until 2030. Oral-health-related morbidity changed, leading to more periodontal and fewer prosthetic treatments needs, with the overall demand decreasing in all scenarios (−25% to −33%). In contrast, the overall number of dentists did only limitedly change, resulting in moderate decrease in the supplied service quantities (max. −22%). Thus, the demand-supply ratio increased in all but the worst case scenario, but was unequally distributed between spatial units, with several areas being over- and some being under- or none-serviced in 2030. Conclusions Within the limitations of the underlying data and the required assumptions, this study expects an increasingly polarized ratio of dental services demand and supply in Northern Germany. Our estimation allows to assess the impact of different influence factors on demand or supply and to specifically identify potential challenges for workforce planning and regulation in different spatial units. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim We aimed to assess changes of periodontal status in Germany. Materials & Methods The Studies of Health in Pomerania ( SHIP) are two cross-sectional population-based studies conducted during 1997-2001 ( SHIP-0, 20-81 years, n = 3736) and 2008-2012 ( SHIP-Trend, 20-84 years, n = 3622) in northeast Germany. The German Oral Health Studies ( DMS, 35-44 and 65-74 years) are national cross-sectional population-based surveys conducted in 1997 ( DMS III, n = 1454) and 2005 ( DMS IV, n = 1668), whose results were separately reported for West and East Germany. Prevalences, percentages and numbers of teeth affected were defined. Results In SHIP, prevalence of attachment loss ( AL) ≥3 mm decreased from 89.7% (95% confidence interval ( CI): 88.6-90.8) to 85.1% (95% CI: 83.9-86.3) ( p < 0.05) and the mean extent reduced from 62.8% (95% CI: 61.7-63.8) to 55.9% (95% CI: 54.9-56.9) ( p < 0.05). Probing depth ( PD) ≥4 mm and the respective extent remained unchanged. In West Germany, AL ≥3 mm decreased for 35-44-year-olds and increased for 65-74-year-olds ( p < 0.05). In SHIP and DMS, the number of teeth in dentates increased significantly in all age groups. Conclusions Prevalences and extents of AL improved almost in all age categories in SHIP and West German adults, whereas PDs remained unchanged. Nonetheless, the improvement of periodontal conditions implies an increase of treatment needs regarding moderately diseased teeth because of simultaneous increases of the number of present teeth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Oral diseases rank among the most prevalent non-communicable diseases in modern societies. In Germany, oral epidemiological data show that both dental caries and periodontal diseases are highly prevalent, though significant improvements in oral health has been taking in the population within the last decades, particularly in children. It is, therefore, the aim of the Fifth German Oral Health Study (DMS V) to actualize the data on current oral health status and to gather information on oral health behavior and risk factors. In addition to current oral health monitoring, the study will also permit conclusions about trends in the development of oral health in Germany between 1989 and 2014. Methods/Design DMS V is a cross-sectional, multi-center, nationwide representative, socio-epidemiological study to investigate the oral health status und behavior of the German resident population in four age cohorts. Study participants are children (12-year-olds), adults (35- to 44-year-olds), young olds (65- to 74-year-olds), and old olds (75- to 100-year-olds) who are drawn from local residents' registration offices. Social-science investigation parameters concern subjective perceptions and attitudes regarding oral health and nutrition, sense of coherence, and socio-demographic data. Clinical oral parameters are tooth loss, caries and periodontitis, prosthodontic status, further developmental and acquired dental hard tissue and mucosal lesions. To ensure reproducibility, the dental investigators are trained and calibrated by experts and multiple reliability checks are performed throughout the field phase. Statistical analyses are calculated according to a detailed statistical analysis plan. Discussion The DMS studies first performed in 1989 and repeated in 1997 and 2005 are the only crosssectional oral health studies conducted in Germany on a population-based national representative level. Updated prevalence and trend analyses of key oral diseases are, therefore, of major epidemiological and health services research interest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]