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BackgroundThe United States (US) data suggest fewer-than-expected preterm births in 2020, but no study has examined the impact of exposure to the early COVID-19 pandemic at different points in gestation on preterm birth.ObjectiveOur objective was to determine-among cohorts exposed to the early COVID-19 pandemic-whether observed counts of overall, early and moderately preterm birth fell outside the expected range.MethodsWe used de-identified, cross-sectional, national birth certificate data from 2014 to 2020. We used month and year of birth and gestational age to estimate month of conception for birth. We calculated the count of overall (

BackgroundDebate over "social distancing" as a response to the pandemic includes the claim that disrupting clinical and public health programming dependent on human-to-human contact increased non-COVID-19 deaths. This claim warrants testing because novel pathogens will continue to emerge. Tests, however, appear frustrated by lack of a convention for estimating non-COVID-19 deaths that would have occurred had clinical and public health programming during the pre-vaccine pandemic remained as efficacious as in the pre-pandemic era. Intending to hasten the emergence of such a convention, we describe and demonstrate "new-signal, prior-response expectations" suggested by research and methods at the intersection of epidemiology and process control engineering.MethodsUsing German data, we estimate pre-pandemic public health efficacy by applying Box-Jenkins methods to 271 weekly counts of all-cause deaths from December 29 2014 through March 8 2020. We devise new-signal, prior-response expectations by applying the model to weekly non-COVID-19 deaths from March 9 2020 through December 26 2020.ResultsThe COVID-19 pandemic did not coincide with more non-COVID-19 deaths than expected from the efficacy of responses to pre-pandemic all-cause deaths.ConclusionsNew-signal, prior-response estimates can contribute to evaluating the efficacy of public health programming in reducing non-COVID-19 deaths during the pre-vaccine pandemic.

The epidemiologic literature estimating the indirect or secondary effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on pregnant people and gestation continues to grow. Our assessment of this scholarship, however, leads us to suspect that the methods most commonly used may lead researchers to spurious inferences. This suspicion arises because the methods do not account for temporal patterning in perinatal outcomes when deriving counterfactuals, or estimates of the outcomes had the pandemic not occurred. We illustrate the problem in 2 ways. First, using monthly data from US birth certificates, we describe temporal patterning in 5 commonly used perinatal outcomes. Notably, for all but 1 outcome, temporal patterns appear more complex than much of the emerging literature assumes. Second, using data from France, we show that using counterfactuals that ignore this complexity produces spurious results. We recommend that subsequent investigations on COVID-19 and other perturbations use widely available time-series methods to derive counterfactuals that account for strong temporal patterning in perinatal outcomes.

BackgroundPreliminary studies suggest that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and associated social, economic and clinical disruptions have affected pregnancy decision-making and outcomes. Whilst a few US-based studies have examined regional changes in birth outcomes during the pandemic's first months, much remains unknown of how the pandemic impacted perinatal health indicators at the national-level throughout 2020, including during the 'second wave' of infections that occurred later in the year.ObjectivesTo describe changes in monthly rates of perinatal health indicators during the 2020 pandemic for the entire US.MethodsFor the years 2015 to 2020, we obtained national monthly rates (per 100 births) for four perinatal indicators: preterm (

BackgroundCancer ranks as the second leading cause of death among children ages 1 to 14 years in the United States. Previous research finds that strong cohort selection in utero against males precedes a reduction in live-born males considered frail. We examine whether such cohort selection in utero may similarly affect the frequency of childhood cancers among male live births.MethodsWe examined 1,368 childhood cancers among males born in Sweden over 144 months, from January 1990 to December 2001, and followed to age 15 in the Swedish Cancer Registry. We retrieved the count of male twins by birth month from the Swedish Birth Registry. We applied autoregressive, integrated, moving average time-series methods to identify and control for temporal patterns in monthly childhood cancers and to evaluate robustness of results.ResultsFewer childhood cancers occur among monthly male birth cohorts with elevated selection in utero (i.e., a low count of live-born male twins). This association appears in the concurrent month (coef = 0.04; 95% CI, 0.001-0.079) as well as in the following month in which most births from the twin's conception cohort are "scheduled" to be born (coef = 0.055; 95% CI, 0.017-0.094).ConclusionsElevated cohort selection in utero may reduce the number of frail male gestations that would otherwise have survived to birth and received a cancer diagnosis during childhood.ImpactThis novel result warrants further investigation of prenatal exposures, including those at the population level, that may induce cohort selection in utero for some cancer types but not others.

Much theory asserts that sexual intimacy sustains mental health. Experimental tests of such theory remain rare and have not provided compelling evidence because ethical, practical, and cultural constraints bias samples and results. An epidemiologic approach would, therefore, seem indicated given the rigor the discipline brings to quasi-experimental research. For reasons that remain unclear, however, epidemiologist have largely ignored such theory despite the plausibility of the processes implicated, which engender, for example, happiness, feelings of belonging and self-worth, and protection against depression. We use an intent-to-treat design, implemented via interrupted time-series methods, to test the hypothesis that the monthly incidence of suicide, a societally important distal measure of mental health in a population, decreased among Swedish men aged 50-59 after July 2013 when patent rights to sildenafil (i.e., Viagra) ceased, prices fell, and its use increased dramatically. The test uses 102 pre, and 18 post, price-drop months. 65 fewer suicides than expected occurred among men aged 50-59 over test months following the lowering of sildenafil prices. Our findings could not arise from shared trends or seasonality, biased samples, or reverse causation. Our results would appear by chance fewer than once in 10,000 experiments. Our findings align with theory indicating that sexual intimacy reinforces mental health. Using suicide as our distal measure of mental health further implies that public health programming intended to address the drivers of self-destructive behavior should reduce barriers to intimacy in the middle-aged populations.

Lay persons and policy makers have speculated on how national differences in the imposition of social distancing to reduce SARS CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) infection has affected non-COVID-19 deaths. No rigorous estimation of the effect appears in the scholarly literature. We use time-series methods to compare non-COVID-19 deaths in Norway during its 9 weeks of mandated social distancing to those expected from history as well as from non-COVID-19 deaths in relatively less restricted Sweden. We estimate that 430 fewer Norwegians than expected died from causes other than COVID-19. We argue that failing to account for averted non-COVID-19 deaths will lead to an underestimate of the benefits of social distancing policies.

PurposeWe use data from California, where 13% of US births occur, to address two questions arising from efforts in the first decade of this century to avoid stillbirths before 25 6/7 weeks of gestation (i.e., in the periviable period). First, did stillbirths decline in the first decade of this century? Second, if stillbirths did decline, did periviable live births increase simultaneously? Answering these questions is important given that periviable infants represent less than 1% of live births but account for roughly 40% of infant mortality and 20% of hospital-based obstetric costs in the United States.MethodsWe constructed 240 monthly conception cohorts, starting with that conceived in January 1991, from 9,880,536 singleton pregnancies that reached the 20 0/7 week of gestation. We used time-series design and Box-Jenkins methods that address confounding by autocorrelation, including secular trends and seasonality to answer our questions.ResultsWe detected a downward shift in stillbirths in April 2007 that coincided with an upward shift in periviable live births.ConclusionsOur findings imply that, since 2007, fewer Californians than expected from history and from the size of conception cohorts reaching 20 0/7 weeks of gestation have had to contend with the sequelae of stillbirths, but more than expected likely have had to contend with those of periviable births.

BackgroundThe Icelandic volcano Laki erupted from June 1783 through January 1784. It produced 122 megatons of sulfur dioxide, particulate matter, and acid rain and contributed to one of the coldest winters on record in Western Europe. Although uncontrollable volcanic eruptions continue, few studies have investigated their perinatal health implications.MethodsUsing the Human Mortality Database, we assessed the association between the Laki event and the secondary sex ratio, infant mortality rates, and the number of births from 1751 to 1800 with time-series models that controlled for temporal trends.ResultsThe secondary sex ratio decreased 3% below expected levels in 1784 (95% CI = -4%, -1%). Both female and male infant mortality rates exceeded expectation in 1785, by 54% (95% CI = 25%, 83%) and 37% (-1%, 74%), respectively. We observed little change in female live births but a reduction in male live births in 1784.ConclusionsOur findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the large-scale Laki volcanic eruptions of 1783-1784 resulted in adverse perinatal health outcomes in Sweden.

Public health researchers may assume, based on the fetal origins literature, that "scarring" of birth cohorts describes the population response to modern-day stressors. We contend, based on extensive literature concerned with selection in utero, that this assumption remains questionable. At least a third and likely many more of human conceptions fail to yield a live birth. Those that survive to birth, moreover, do not represent their conception cohort. Increasing data availability has led to an improved understanding of selection in utero and its implications for population health. The literature describing selection in utero, however, receives relatively little attention from social scientists. We aim to draw attention to the rich theoretical and empirical literature on selection in utero by offering a typology that organizes this diverse work along dimensions we think important, if not familiar, to those studying population health. We further use the typology to identify important gaps in the literature. This work should interest social scientists for two reasons. First, phenomena of broad scholarly interest (i.e., social connectivity, bereavement) affect the extent and timing of selection in utero. Second, the life-course health of a cohort depends in part on the strength of such selection. We conclude by identifying new research directions and with a reconciliation of the apparent contradiction between the "fetal origins" literature and that describing selection in utero.

PurposeIn recent years, cancer case counts in the U.S. underwent a large, rapid decline-an unexpected change given population growth for older persons at highest cancer risk. As these declines coincided with the Great Recession, we examined whether they were related to economic conditions.MethodsUsing California Cancer Registry data from California's 30 most populous counties, we analyzed trends in cancer incidence during pre-recession (1996-2007) and recession/recovery (2008-2012) periods for all cancers combined and the ten most common sites. We evaluated the recession's association with rates using a multifactorial index that measured recession impact, and modeled associations between case counts and county-level unemployment rates using Poisson regression.ResultsYearly cancer incidence rate declines were greater during the recession/recovery (3.3% among males, 1.4% among females) than before (0.7 and 0.5%, respectively), particularly for prostate, lung, and colorectal cancers. Lower case counts, especially for prostate and liver cancer among males and breast cancer, melanoma, and ovarian cancer among females, were associated with higher unemployment rates, irrespective of time period, but independent of secular effects. The associations for melanoma translated up to a 3.6% decrease in cases with each 1% increase in unemployment. Incidence declines were not greater in counties with higher recession impact index.ConclusionsAlthough recent declines in incidence of certain cancers are not differentially impacted by economic conditions related to the Great Recession relative to pre-recession conditions, the large recent absolute declines in the case counts of some cancer may be attributable to the large declines in unemployment in the recessionary period. This may occur through decreased engagement in preventive health behaviors, particularly for clinically less urgent cancers. Continued monitoring of trends is important to detect any rises in incidence rates as deferred diagnoses come to clinical attention.

An estimated 11%-20% of clinically recognized pregnancies result in spontaneous abortion. The literature finds elevated risk of spontaneous abortion among women who report adverse financial life events. This work suggests that, at the population level, national economic decline-an ambient and plausibly unexpected stressor-will precede an increase in spontaneous abortion. We tested this hypothesis using high-quality information on pregnancy and spontaneous loss for all women in Denmark. We applied time-series methods to monthly counts of clinically detected spontaneous abortions (n = 157,449) and the unemployment rate in Denmark beginning in January 1995 and ending in December 2009. Our statistical methods controlled for temporal patterns in spontaneous abortion (e.g., seasonality, trend) and changes in the population of pregnancies at risk of loss. Unexpected increases in the unemployment rate preceded by 1 month a rise in the number of spontaneous abortions (β = 33.19 losses/month, 95% confidence interval: 8.71, 57.67). An attendant analysis that used consumption of durable household goods as an indicator of financial insecurity supported the inference from our main test. Changes over time in elective abortions and in the cohort composition of high-risk pregnancies did not account for results. It appears that in Denmark, ambient stressors as common as increasing unemployment may precede a population-level increase in spontaneous abortion.

Study Question: Does the incidence of spontaneous abortion correlate positively over conception cohorts with the incidence of non-clinically indicated induced abortion as predicted by shared risk aversion?Summary Answer: We find that the number of spontaneous and non-clinically indicated induced abortions correlates in conception cohorts, suggesting that risk aversion affects both the conscious and non-conscious mechanisms that control parturition.What Is Known Already: Much literature speculates that natural selection conserved risk aversion because the trait enhanced Darwinian fitness. Risk aversion, moreover, supposedly influences all decisions including those that individuals can and cannot report making. We argue that these circumstances, if real, would manifest in conscious and non-conscious decisions to invest in prospective offspring, and therefore affect incidence of induced and spontaneous abortion over time.Study Design, Size, Duration: Using data from Denmark, we test the hypothesis that monthly conception cohorts yielding unexpectedly many non-clinically indicated induced abortions also yield unexpectedly many spontaneous abortions. The 180 month test period (January 1995 through December 2009), yielded 1 351 800 gestations including 156 780 spontaneous as well as 233 280 induced abortions 9100 of which were clinically indicated.Participants/materials, Setting, Methods: We use Box-Jenkins transfer functions to adjust the incidence of spontaneous and non-clinically indicated induced abortions for autocorrelation (including seasonality), cohort size, and fetal as well as gestational anomalies over the 180-month test period. We use cross-correlation to test our hypothesized association.Main Results and the Role Of Chance: We find a positive association between spontaneous and non-clinically indicated induced abortions. This suggests, consistent with our theory, that mothers of conception cohorts that yielded more spontaneous abortions than expected opted more frequently than expected for non-clinically indicated induced abortion.Limitations, Reasons For Caution: Limitations of our work include that even the world's best registration system will not capture all spontaneous abortions and that results may not generalize beyond Denmark.Wider Implications Of the Findings: Our findings imply that abortion, intentional or 'spontaneous,' follows from a woman's estimate, made consciously or otherwise, of the costs and benefits of extending gestation given characteristics of the prospective offspring, likely environmental circumstances at birth, and maternal resources.Study Funding/competing Interests: The Robert Wood Johnson Health and Society Scholars Program funded the research described in this manuscript. None of the authors has any conflict of interest to declare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background There is some evidence that individual-level job loss can lead to greater alcohol consumption and problems. While other forms of economic loss were common during the recent recession, these are rarely investigated in studies of macroeconomic decline. This study examined the relationship between types of economic loss in the 2008 to 2009 recession and alcohol outcomes, and whether this varied by gender and age. Methods Data are from the 2009 to 2010 U. S. National Alcohol Survey ( N = 5,382). We used multivariable regression to estimate associations between economic loss and alcohol volume, monthly drunkenness, negative drinking consequences, and alcohol dependence in the overall sample and within gender and age groups (18 to 29, 30 to 49, 50+), controlling for demographic and alcohol history covariates. Results In the overall sample, severe economic loss (job or housing loss) was positively associated with negative drinking consequences, alcohol dependence, and (marginally) drunkenness, whereas moderate loss (loss of retirement savings, reduced work hours/wages, or trouble paying the rent/mortgage) was unassociated with alcohol outcomes. Important gender and age differences were observed. Women reporting retirement loss, reduced hours/wages, and job loss consumed 41 to 70% more alcohol than women unaffected by the recession, and men who experienced job loss and housing problems had increased risk for drunkenness, drinking consequences, and dependence. Middle-aged Americans affected by partial or complete job loss and housing problems also had greater risk of drunkenness and alcohol-related problems, and older adults who lost retirement savings drank 42% more alcohol than their peers unaffected by the recession. With the exception of negative drinking consequences, young adult alcohol outcomes were largely unrelated to recessionary loss. Conclusions This study highlights the adverse effects of recession-induced economic losses on alcohol use and problems in demographic subgroups. As men and middle-aged Americans were at risk for multiple, adverse alcohol outcomes, these groups may warrant special alcohol screening and intervention efforts in future macroeconomic crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]