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INTRODUCTION: Canada has a high burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Historical trends of IBD incidence and prevalence were analyzed to forecast the Canadian burden over the next decade. METHODS: Population-based surveillance cohorts in 8 provinces derived from health administrative data assessed the national incidence (2007-2014) and prevalence (2002-2014) of IBD. Autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to forecast incidence and prevalence, stratified by age, with 95% prediction intervals (PI), to 2035. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated for the forecasted incidence and prevalence. RESULTS: The national incidence of IBD is estimated to be 29.9 per 100,000 (95% PI 28.3-31.5) in 2023. With a stable AAPC of 0.36% (95% CI -0.05 to 0.72), the incidence of IBD is forecasted to be 31.2 per 100,000 (95% PI 28.1-34.3) in 2035. The incidence in pediatric patients (younger than 18 years) is increasing (AAPC 1.27%; 95% CI 0.82-1.67), but it is stable in adults (AAPC 0.26%; 95% CI -0.42 to 0.82). The prevalence of IBD in Canada was 843 per 100,000 (95% PI 716-735) in 2023 and is expected to steadily climb (AAPC 2.43%; 95% CI 2.32-2.54) to 1,098 per 100,000 (95% PI 1,068-1,127) by 2035. The highest prevalence is in seniors with IBD (1,174 per 100,000 in 2023; AAPC 2.78%; 95% CI 2.75-2.81). DISCUSSION: Over the next decade, the Canadian health care systems will contend with the juxtaposition of rising incidence of pediatric IBD and a rising prevalence of overall IBD driven by the aging population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Individuals with orofacial cleft (OFC) may be at a higher risk of developing psychiatric disorders (PD) than the general population. We determined the risk of psychiatric diagnoses in children with OFC in Canada. This population-based retrospective cohort study used health administrative data from the province of Ontario, Canada. Children with OFC who were born between April 1, 1994, and March 31, 2017, in Ontario were matched to five non-OFC children based on sex, date of birth, and mother's age. We determined the rate of events and time-to-event for first diagnosis of PD in children aged ≥ 3 years (y), and for intellectual developmental delay (IDD) from birth. Risk factors for PD and IDD were assessed using 1-way ANOVA for means, Kruskal–Wallis for medians, and the χ2 test for categorical variables. There were 3051 children with OFC (matched to 15,255 controls), of whom 2515 patients with OFC (12,575 controls) had a complete follow-up to the third birthday. Children with OFC were more likely to have PD than controls (54.90 vs. 43.28 per 1000 patient-years, P <.001), with a mean age to first diagnosis of 8.6 ± 4.2 y. The cleft palate group had the highest risk (HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.18–1.49). Children with OFC also had a higher risk of IDD than non-OFC children (27.78 vs. 3.46 per 1000 patient-years, p <.001). Children born with OFC in Ontario had a higher risk of psychiatric diagnosis and IDD compared to controls. Further research is also required to better understand the predictors of variation in risk, including geographic location and the presence of congenital abnormalities, and identify potential areas for intervention. Level II. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is now a global disease with incidence increasing throughout Asia. Aim: To determine the incidence of IBD among South Asians and Chinese people residing in Ontario, Canada's most populous province. Methods: All incident cases of IBD in children (1994– 2015) and adults (1999– 2015) were identified from population-based health administrative data. We classified South Asian and Chinese ethnicity using immigration records and surnames. We determined standardized incidence of IBD and adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) in South Asians and Chinese compared to the general population. Results: Among 16,230,638 people living in Ontario, standardized incidence of IBD per 100,000 person-years was 24.7 (95% CI 24.4– 25.0), compared with 14.6 (95% CI 13.7– 15.5) in 982,472 South Asians and with 5.4 (95% CI 4.8– 5.9) in 764,397 Chinese. The risk of IBD in South Asians was comparable to the general population after adjusting for immigrant status and confounders (aIRR 1.03, 95% CI 0.96– 1.10). South Asians had a lower risk of Crohn's disease (CD) (aIRR 0.66, 95% CI 0.60– 0.77), but a higher risk of ulcerative colitis (UC) (aIRR 1.47, 95% CI 1.34– 1.61). Chinese people had much lower rates of IBD (aIRR 0.24, 95% CI 0.20– 0.28), CD (aIRR 0.21, 95% CI 0.17– 0.26), and UC (aIRR 0.28, 95% CI 0.23– 0.25). Conclusion: Canadians of South Asian ethnicity had a similarly high risk of developing IBD compared to other Canadians, and a higher risk of developing UC, a finding distinct from the Chinese population. Our findings indicate the importance of genetic and environmental risk factors in people of Asian origin who live in the Western world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The incidence and prevalence of childhood-onset inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), including subtypes Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, have risen dramatically in recent years, and have emerged globally as important pediatric chronic diseases. Therefore, health care providers are more frequently encountering very young children with IBD, a chronic and incurable condition requiring life-long therapy. These children are living long lives with IBD and therefore knowledge of long-term outcomes is increasingly important to better counsel families and determine the best course of treatment. This review summarizes the current knowledge and literature surrounding long-term outcomes of pediatric IBD, with emphasis on the following areas: need for surgery due to complicated disease behavior, risk of disease remission and recurrence, mental health and psychosocial well-being, educational outcomes, linear growth impairment, cancer risk, and mortality. In addition, we review recent research about predicting negative long-term outcomes in children with IBD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Health administrative databases can be used to track disease incidence, outcomes, and care quality. Case validation is necessary to ensure accurate disease ascertainment using these databases. In this study, we aimed to validate adult-onset inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) identification algorithms. Study Design and Setting: We used two large cohorts of incident patients from Ontario, Canada to validate algorithms. We linked information extracted from charts to health administrative data and compared the accuracy of various algorithms. In addition, we validated an algorithm to distinguish patients with Crohn's from those with ulcerative colitis and assessed the adequate look-back period to distinguish incident from prevalent cases. Results: Over 5,000 algorithms were tested. The most accurate algorithm to identify patients 18 to 64 years at diagnosis was five physician contacts or hospitalizations within 4 years (sensitivity, 76.8%; specificity, 96.2%; positive predictive value (PPV), 81.4%; negative predictive value (NPV), 95.0%). In patients ≥65 years at diagnosis, adding a pharmacy claim for an IBD-related medication improved accuracy. Conclusion: Patients with adult-onset incident IBD can be accurately identified from within health administrative data. The validated algorithms will be applied to administrative data to expand the Ontario Crohn's and Colitis Cohort to all patients with IBD in the province of Ontario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Background and Objectives: Validation of health administrative data for identifying patients with different health states (diseases and conditions) is a research priority, but no guidelines exist for ensuring quality. We created reporting guidelines for studies validating administrative data identification algorithms and used them to assess the quality of reporting of validation studies in the literature. Methods: Using Standards for Reporting of Diagnostic accuracy (STARD) criteria as a guide, we created a 40-item checklist of items with which identification accuracy studies should be reported. A systematic review identified studies that validated identification algorithms using administrative data. We used the checklist to assess the quality of reporting. Results: In 271 included articles, goals and data sources were well reported but few reported four or more statistical estimates of accuracy (36.9%). In 65.9% of studies reporting positive predictive value (PPV)/negative predictive value (NPV), the prevalence of disease in the validation cohort was higher than in the administrative data, potentially falsely elevating predictive values. Subgroup accuracy (53.1%) and 95% confidence intervals for accuracy measures (35.8%) were also underreported. Conclusions: The quality of studies validating health states in the administrative data varies, with significant deficits in reporting of markers of diagnostic accuracy, including the appropriate estimation of PPV and NPV. These omissions could lead to misclassification bias and incorrect estimation of incidence and health services utilization rates. Use of a reporting checklist, such as the one created for this study by modifying the STARD criteria, could improve the quality of reporting of validation studies, allowing for accurate application of algorithms, and interpretation of research using health administrative data. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

INTRODUCTION: To study digestive system cancer risks in individuals with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) in the biologic era. METHODS: We used population-level administrative and cancer registry data from Ontario, Canada, (1994-2020) to compare people with IBD to matched controls (1:10 by sex and birth year) on trends in age-sex standardized cancer incidence and risk ratios of incident cancers and cancer-related deaths. RESULTS: Among 110,919 people with IBD and 1,109,190 controls, colorectal cancer incidence (per 100,000 person-years) declined similarly in people with ulcerative colitis (average annual percentage change [AAPC] 21.81; 95% confidence interval [CI] 22.48 to 21.156) and controls (AAPC 22.79; 95% CI 23.44 to 22.14), while small bowel cancer incidence rose faster in those with Crohn's disease (AAPC 9.68; 95% CI 2.51-17.3) than controls (AAPC 3.64; 95% CI 1.52-5.80). Extraintestinal digestive cancer incidence rose faster in people with IBD (AAPC 3.27; 95% CI 1.83-4.73) than controls (AAPC 21.87;95%CI22.33to21.42),particularly for liver (IBDAAPC8.48;95%CI 4.11-13.1) and bile duct (IBD AAPC 7.22; 95% CI 3.74-10.8) cancers. Beyond 2010, the incidences (and respective mortality rates) of colorectal (1.60; 95% CI 1.46-1.75), small bowel (4.10; 95% CI 3.37-4.99), bile duct (2.33; 95%CI 1.96-2.77), and pancreatic (1.19; 95% CI 1.00-1.40) cancers were higher in people with IBD. DISCUSSION: Cancer incidence is declining for colorectal cancer and rising for other digestive cancers in people with IBD. Incidence and mortality remain higher in people with IBD than controls for colorectal, small bowel, bile duct, and pancreatic cancers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) exist worldwide, with high prevalence in North America. IBD is complex and costly, and its increasing prevalence places a greater stress on health care systems. We aimed to determine the past current, and future prevalences of IBD in Canada. Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study using population-based health administrative data from Alberta (2002–2015), British Columbia (1997–2014), Manitoba (1990–2013), Nova Scotia (1996–2009), Ontario (1999–2014), Quebec (2001–2008), and Saskatchewan (1998–2016). Autoregressive integrated moving average regression was applied, and prevalence, with 95% prediction intervals (PIs), was forecasted to 2030. Average annual percentage change, with 95% confidence intervals, was assessed with log binomial regression. Results In 2018, the prevalence of IBD in Canada was estimated at 725 per 100,000 (95% PI 716–735) and annual average percent change was estimated at 2.86% (95% confidence interval 2.80%–2.92%). The prevalence in 2030 was forecasted to be 981 per 100,000 (95% PI 963–999): 159 per 100,000 (95% PI 133–185) in children, 1118 per 100,000 (95% PI 1069–1168) in adults, and 1370 per 100,000 (95% PI 1312–1429) in the elderly. In 2018, 267,983 Canadians (95% PI 264,579–271,387) were estimated to be living with IBD, which was forecasted to increase to 402,853 (95% PI 395,466–410,240) by 2030. Conclusion Forecasting prevalence will allow health policy makers to develop policy that is necessary to address the challenges faced by health systems in providing high-quality and cost-effective care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims Although the incidence of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) varies with age, few studies have examined variations between the sexes. We therefore used population data from established cohorts to analyze sex differences in IBD incidence according to age at diagnosis. Methods We identified population-based cohorts of patients with IBD for which incidence and age data were available (17 distinct cohorts from 16 regions of Europe, North America, Australia, and New Zealand). We collected data through December 2016 on 95,605 incident cases of Crohn's disease (CD) (42,831 male and 52,774 female) and 112,004 incident cases of ulcerative colitis (UC) (61,672 male and 50,332 female). We pooled incidence rate ratios of CD and UC for the combined cohort and compared differences according to sex using random effects meta-analysis. Results Female patients had a lower risk of CD during childhood, until the age range of 10–14 years (incidence rate ratio, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.53–0.93), but they had a higher risk of CD thereafter, which was statistically significant for the age groups of 25–29 years and older than 35 years. The incidence of UC did not differ significantly for female vs male patients (except for the age group of 5–9 years) until age 45 years; thereafter, men had a significantly higher incidence of ulcerative colitis than women. Conclusions In a pooled analysis of population-based studies, we found age at IBD onset to vary with sex. Further studies are needed to investigate mechanisms of sex differences in IBD incidence. Graphical abstract [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To investigate annual and seasonal trends in physician office and emergency department (ED) visit rates for pediatric concussion in Ontario between 2003 and 2013.Study Design: A retrospective, population-based study was conducted using linked health administrative data from all concussion-related visits to ED and physician office by children aged 5 through 18 years. Time series analysis was used to assess whether periodic components exist in the monthly number of concussion-related visits.Results: Over the 11-year study period, there were 176 685 pediatric visits for concussion in EDs and physician offices in Ontario. Standardized concussion-related visits showed a 4.4-fold (95% CI 4.37-4.45) increase per 100 000 from 2003 to 2013, with nearly 35 000 total visits in 2013. Concussion-related visits demonstrated a steep increase from 2010 onward. The greatest increases in standardized visits were in females (6.3-fold, 95% CI 6.23-6.46 vs 3.6-fold, 95% CI 3.56-3.64 in males) and 13-18.99 year olds (5.0-fold, 95% CI 4.93-5.08 vs 4.1-fold, 95% CI 3.99-4.27 in 9-12 years and 2.3-fold, 95% CI 2.23-2.42 in 5-8 years). A strong seasonal variability (R2autoreg = 0.87, P < .01) in the number of concussion-related visits was present, with most occurring in fall and winter.Conclusions: Pediatric concussion-related ED and physician office visit rates have greatly increased in the last decade, particularly since 2010. Prevention strategies may be targeted at those most at risk and at seasonal-related activities carrying the greatest risk of concussion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims The Paris pediatric modification of the Montreal classification defines very early onset inflammatory bowel disease (VEO-IBD) as a form of IBD distinct from that of older children. We compared the incidence and outcomes of VEO-IBD with those of IBD in older children. Methods We performed a population-based retrospective cohort study of all children diagnosed with IBD in Ontario, Canada, from 1994 through 2009. Trends in standardized incidence were calculated using Poisson regression. We compared outpatient and emergency department visits, hospitalizations, and surgeries among children diagnosed with IBD when they were younger than age 6, ages 6–9.9, and older than age 10 years. Multivariable models were adjusted for income and stratified by sex. Results The incidence of IBD increased from 9.4 per 100,000 children (95% confidence interval [CI], 8.2–10.8/100,000 children) in 1994 to 13.2 per 100,000 children (95% CI, 11.9–14.6/100,000 children) in 2009 ( P < .0001). The incidence increased by 7.4% per year among children younger than 6 years old and 6–9.9 years old, and by 2.2% per year among children ≥10 years old. IBD-related outpatient visits were less frequent among children <6 years old than ≥10 years old (odds ratio for female patients, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.58–0.78; odds ratio for male patients, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.75–0.98). Hazard ratios [HRs] for hospitalization were lower for children <6 years old (female HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.56–0.87; male HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.94–1.33) than for older children. HRs for surgery among children <6 years old with Crohn’s disease were 0.35 for female patients (95% CI, 0.16–0.78) and 0.59 for male patients (95% CI, 0.34–0.99). HRs for children <6 years old with ulcerative colitis were 0.88 for female patients (95% CI, 0.47–1.63) and 0.42 for male patients (95% CI, 0.21–0.85). There was no difference in hospitalization or surgery rates among children 6–9.9 years old vs those ≥10 years old. Conclusions Based on a retrospective cohort study, the incidence of VEO-IBD increased from 1994 through 2009. Children diagnosed with IBD before they were 6 years old used fewer health services and had lower rates of surgery than children diagnosed when they were 10 years or older. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims: We conducted a systematic review to determine changes in the worldwide incidence and prevalence of ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn''s disease (CD) in different regions and with time. Methods: We performed a systematic literature search of MEDLINE (1950–2010; 8103 citations) and EMBASE (1980–2010; 4975 citations) to identify studies that were population based, included data that could be used to calculate incidence and prevalence, and reported separate data on UC and/or CD in full manuscripts (n = 260). We evaluated data from 167 studies from Europe (1930–2008), 52 studies from Asia and the Middle East (1950–2008), and 27 studies from North America (1920–2004). Maps were used to present worldwide differences in the incidence and prevalence of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs); time trends were determined using joinpoint regression. Results: The highest annual incidence of UC was 24.3 per 100,000 person-years in Europe, 6.3 per 100,000 person-years in Asia and the Middle East, and 19.2 per 100,000 person-years in North America. The highest annual incidence of CD was 12.7 per 100,000 person-years in Europe, 5.0 person-years in Asia and the Middle East, and 20.2 per 100,000 person-years in North America. The highest reported prevalence values for IBD were in Europe (UC, 505 per 100,000 persons; CD, 322 per 100,000 persons) and North America (UC, 249 per 100,000 persons; CD, 319 per 100,000 persons). In time-trend analyses, 75% of CD studies and 60% of UC studies had an increasing incidence of statistical significance (P < .05). Conclusions: Although there are few epidemiologic data from developing countries, the incidence and prevalence of IBD are increasing with time and in different regions around the world, indicating its emergence as a global disease. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: Inflammatory bowel disease is a global disease in the 21st century. We aimed to assess the changing incidence and prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease around the world.Methods: We searched MEDLINE and Embase up to and including Dec 31, 2016, to identify observational, population-based studies reporting the incidence or prevalence of Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis from 1990 or later. A study was regarded as population-based if it involved all residents within a specific area and the patients were representative of that area. To be included in the systematic review, ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease needed to be reported separately. Studies that did not report original data and studies that reported only the incidence or prevalence of paediatric-onset inflammatory bowel disease (diagnosis at age <16 years) were excluded. We created choropleth maps for the incidence (119 studies) and prevalence (69 studies) of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. We used temporal trend analyses to report changes as an annual percentage change (APC) with 95% CI.Findings: We identified 147 studies that were eligible for final inclusion in the systematic review, including 119 studies of incidence and 69 studies of prevalence. The highest reported prevalence values were in Europe (ulcerative colitis 505 per 100 000 in Norway; Crohn's disease 322 per 100 000 in Germany) and North America (ulcerative colitis 286 per 100 000 in the USA; Crohn's disease 319 per 100 000 in Canada). The prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease exceeded 0·3% in North America, Oceania, and many countries in Europe. Overall, 16 (72·7%) of 22 studies on Crohn's disease and 15 (83·3%) of 18 studies on ulcerative colitis reported stable or decreasing incidence of inflammatory bowel disease in North America and Europe. Since 1990, incidence has been rising in newly industrialised countries in Africa, Asia, and South America, including Brazil (APC for Crohn's disease +11·1% [95% CI 4·8-17·8] and APC for ulcerative colitis +14·9% [10·4-19·6]) and Taiwan (APC for Crohn's disease +4·0% [1·0-7·1] and APC for ulcerative colitis +4·8% [1·8-8·0]).Interpretation: At the turn of the 21st century, inflammatory bowel disease has become a global disease with accelerating incidence in newly industrialised countries whose societies have become more westernised. Although incidence is stabilising in western countries, burden remains high as prevalence surpasses 0·3%. These data highlight the need for research into prevention of inflammatory bowel disease and innovations in health-care systems to manage this complex and costly disease.Funding: None. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]