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The current drought over the Colorado River Basin has raised concerns that the US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) may impose water shortages over the lower portion of the basin for the first time in history. The guidelines that determine levels of shortage are affected by relatively short-term (3 to 7 month) forecasts determined by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) using the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecasting System (RFS) hydrologic model. While these forecasts by the CBRFC are useful, water managers within the basin are interested in long-term projections of streamflow, particularly under changing climate conditions. In this study, a bias-corrected, statistically downscaled dataset of projected climate is used to force the NWS RFS utilized by the CBRFC to derive projections of streamflow over the Green, Gunnison, and San Juan River headwater basins located within the Colorado River Basin. This study evaluates the impact of changing climate to evapotranspiration rates and contributes to a better understanding of how hydrologic processes change under varying climate conditions. The impact to evapotranspiration rates is taken into consideration and incorporated into the development of streamflow projections over Colorado River headwater basins in this study. Additionally, the NWS RFS is modified to account for impacts to evapotranspiration due to changing temperature over the basin. Adjusting evapotranspiration demands resulted in a 6 % to 13 % average decrease in runoff over the Gunnison River Basin when compared to static evapotranspiration rates. Streamflow projections derived using projections of future climate and the NWS RFS provided by the CBRFC resulted in decreased runoff in 2 of the 3 basins considered. Over the Gunnison and San Juan River basins, a 10 % to 15 % average decrease in basin runoff is projected through the year 2099. However, over the Green River basin, a 5 % to 8 % increase in basin runoff is projected through 2099. Evidence of nonstationary behavior is apparent over the Gunnison and San Juan River basins.

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) carries aboard the Precipitation Radar (TRMMPR) that measures the backscatter (σ°) of the surface. σ° is sensitive to surface soil moisture and vegetation conditions. Due to sparse vegetation in arid and semi-arid regions, TRMMPR σ° primarily depends on the soil water content. In this study we relate TRMMPR σ° measurements to soil water content (ms) in the Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB). σ° dependence on ms is studied for different vegetation greenness values determined through Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). A new model of σ° that couples incidence angle, ms, and NDVI is used to derive parameters and retrieve soil water content. The calibration and validation of this model are performed using simulated and measured ms data. Simulated ms is estimated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and measured ms is acquired from ground measuring stations in Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW). σ° model is calibrated using VIC and WGEW ms data during 1998 and the calibrated model is used to derive ms during later years. The temporal trends of derived ms are consistent with VIC and WGEW ms data with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.89 and 0.74, respectively. Derived ms is also consistent with the measured precipitation data with R=0.76. The gridded VIC data is used to calibrate the model at each grid point in LCRB and spatial maps of the model parameters are prepared. The model parameters are spatially coherent with the general regional topography in LCRB. TRMMPR σ° derived soil moisture maps during May (dry) and August (wet) 1999 are spatially similar to VIC estimates with correlation 0.67 and 0.76, respectively. This research provides new insights into Ku-band σ° dependence on soil water content in the arid regions.