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Recent studies suggest that climate change will lead to the local extinction of many tree species from large areas during this century, affecting the functioning and ecosystem services of many forests. This study reports on projected carbon losses due to the assumed local climate change-driven extinction of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) from Zala County, South-Western Hungary, where the species grows at the xeric limit of its distribution. The losses were calculated as a difference between carbon stocks in climate change scenarios assuming an exponentially increasing forest decline over time, and those in a baseline scenario assuming no climate change. In the climate change scenarios, three different sets of forest management adaptation measures were studied: (1) only harvesting damaged stands, (2) additionally salvaging dead trees that died due to climate change, and (3) replacing, at an increasing rate over time, beech with sessile oak (Quercus petraea Matt. Lieb.) after final harvest. Projections were made using the open access carbon accounting model CASMOFOR based on modeling or assuming effects of climate change on mortality, tree growth, root-to-shoot ratio and decomposition rates. Results demonstrate that, if beech disappears from the region as projected by the end of the century, over 80% of above-ground biomass carbon, and over 60% of the carbon stocks of all pools (excluding soils) of the forests will be lost by 2100. Such emission rates on large areas may have a discernible positive feedback on climate change, and can only partially be offset by the forest management adaptation measures.

International agreements require countries to annually report on greenhouse gas emissions and removals. For the land-use sector, this includes estimating stock changes in various carbon pools. For carbon pools like mineral forest soil where a country-level statistical inventory based on measurements is very difficult, models are usually applied together with data from case studies. In this paper, we present a country-specific model together with case studies that aim at capturing major soil processes due to forestry activity. These processes include “hot moments”, e.g., disturbances that occur rarely but might result in relatively high emissions. The model only aims at developing a conservative estimate, rather than a central one, of net country-level carbon stock change with emissions overestimated and removals underestimated. The model is partially parameterised using paired sampling of soil organic carbon in the uppermost 30-cm layer, applying standard methods including those suggested by IPCC, in afforestations on former croplands and in artificial regenerations. Results show that soils of afforested croplands act as a sink, and carbon stock after regeneration might decrease due to disturbance by forest operations, but might also increase due to transfer of carbon from dead roots to soil depending on disturbance levels. The estimation at the country level, which involves additional considerations and data from the literature, suggests that overall, forest soils are a net sink in Hungary, but also that artificially limiting soil organic carbon changes estimation to the uppermost 30-cm layer as applied in the IPCC methodology might lead to artefacts.

Climate change particularly threatens the xeric limits of temperate-continental forests. In Hungary, annual temperatures have increased by 1.2 °C–1.8 °C in the last 30 years and the frequency of extreme droughts has grown. With the aim to gain stand-level prospects of sustainability, we have used local forest site variables to identify and project effects of recent and expected changes of climate. We have used a climatic descriptor (FAI index) to compare trends estimated from forest datasets with climatological projections; this is likely for the first time such a comparison has been made. Four independent approaches confirmed the near-linear decline of growth and vitality with increasing hot droughts in summer, using sessile oak as model species. The correlation between droughts and the expansion of pest and disease damages was also found to be significant. Projections of expected changes of main site factors predict a dramatic rise of future drought frequency and, consequently, a substantial shift of forest climate classes, especially at low elevation. Excess water-dependent lowland forests may lose supply from groundwater, which may change vegetation cover and soil development processes. The overall change of site conditions not only causes economic losses, but also challenges long-term sustainability of forest cover at the xeric limits.

This paper analyses the recent recurring dieback and growth decline of Black pine (P. nigra Arn. var austriaca) in the Keszthely mountains of south-west Hungary, and their relations to water deficits due to droughts. These relations were studied in five stands with low soil water storage capacity for the period 1981&ndash, 2016. The vitality was assessed using 60 tree-ring samples and changes in remotely sensed vegetation activity indices, i.e., the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the normalized difference infrared index (NDII). Water deficit was estimated by using meteorological drought indices such the standardized precipitation&ndash, evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the forestry aridity index (FAI), as well as the relative extractable water (REW), calculated by the Brook90 hydrological model. Results revealed a strong dependency of annual tree ring width on the amount of water deficit as measured by all the above estimators, with the highest correlation shown by the summer REW. Droughts also showed a long-term superimposed effect on tree growth. NDII seemed to be more sensitive to drought conditions than NDVI. The robust dependency of tree growth on the summer water availability combined with the projected increasing aridity might lead to decreasing growth of Black pine in Hungary towards the end of the century. We thus argue that the suggestion by several papers that Black pine can be a possible substitute species in the Alpine and Mediterranean region in the future should be revisited.

Parties to the Kyoto Protocol and/or the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to account for their direct human-induced carbon emissions and removals including those from forestry and other land use related activities. In most European countries, the forestry related greenhouse gas inventories are largely or exclusively based on converting tree volume data from national forest inventories to biomass using biomass conversion and expansion factors (BCEFs). However, country specific data for many species are often lacking, which considerably increases the uncertainties of the greenhouse gas inventories. The focus of this research was to develop, using internationally published datasets that cover a large geographical area, an extended set of generalized curves of such biomass expansion factors for several species or species groups by age, growing stock and site index.

The "Allometric, Biomass and Carbon factors" database (ABC factors database) was designed to facilitate the estimation of the biomass carbon stocks of forests in order to support the development and the verification of greenhouse gas inventories in the LULUCF sector (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry). The database contains several types of expansion, conversion and combined factors, by various tree species or species groups that can be used to calculate biomass or carbon of forests of Eurasian region from proxy variables (e.g., tree volume) that may come from forest inventories. In addition to the factors, and depending on the information that was available in the cited source, the database indicates: (1) the biomass compartments involved when the factor was developed; and (2) the possible applicability of the factor, e.g. by country or by ecological regions. The applicability of the factors is either suggested by the source itself, or the type of source (e.g. National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report), or was based on the expert judgement by the compilers of the database. Finally, in order to facilitate the selection of the most appropriate of the data, the web-based interface provides the possibility to compare several factors that may come from different sources. The ABC factors database is freely available at the URL: http://afoludata.jrc.it/data_fs.cfm, in the web site AFOLU-DATA, funded and hosted by the Joint Research Centre (European Commission, DG-JRC)., JRC.H.2-Climate change

Forest biomass and its change over time have been measured at both local and large scales, an example for the latter being forest greenhouse gas inventories. Currently used methodologies to obtain stock change estimates for large forest areas are mostly based on forest inventory information as well as various factors, referred to as biomass factors, or biomass equations, which transform diameter, height or volume data into biomass estimates. However, while forest inventories usually apply statistically sound sampling and can provide representative estimates for large forest areas, the biomass factors or equations used are, in most cases, not representative, because they are based on local studies. Moreover, their application is controversial due to the inconsistent or inappropriate use of definitions involved. There is no standardized terminology of the various factors, and the use of terms and definitions is often confusing. The present contribution aims at systematically summarizing the main types of biomass factors (BF) and biomass equations (BE) and providing guidance on how to proceed when selecting, developing and applying proper factors or equations to be used in forest biomass estimation. The contribution builds on the guidance given by the IPCC (Good practice guidance for land use, land-use change and forestry, 2003) and suggests that proper application and reporting of biomass factors and equations and transparent and consistent reporting of forest carbon inventories are needed in both scientific literature and the greenhouse gas inventory reports of countries.

This paper reports on measured carbon stocks in the forests of two treeline ecotones of the Ural region where climate change might improve growing conditions. The first is an alpine ecotone that is represented by an altitudinal gradient of the spruce-dominated forests on the Western slope of the Tylaiskii Kamen Mountain (Western part of the Konzhakovskii-Tylaiskii-Serebryanskii Mountain system, 59 0 30'N, 59 0 00'E), at the alpine timber line that has risen from 864 to 960 m above sea level in the course of the last 100 years. The second is an arctic ecotone in larch-dominated forests at the lower course of the Pur River (67 0 N, 78 0 E), at the transition zone between closed floodplain forests and open or island-like communities of upland forests on tundra permafrost. According to our results, there are large differences in the carbon of the aboveground biomass of both ecotones across environmental gradients. In the alpine treeline ecotone, a 19-fold drop of the carbon stocks was detected between the lower and higher altitudinal levels. In the arctic ecotone the aboveground biomass carbon stock of forests of similar densities (1300 to 1700 trees per ha) was 7 times as much in the river flood bed, and 5 times as much in mature, dense forests as the low density forests at higher elevations.

This paper presents the results of the statistical analysis of biomass and NPP estimates from vast forest areas in relation to climatic conditions. The analysis was based on biomass data in 1236 sample plots as well as both NPP and biomass estimates in 480 sample plots that were established in mixed spruce and fir stands. Data were available for the entire Eurasian territory from the UK to South China and Japan, and included information on both total biomass and various biomass components. The climatic conditions of the sampled forests were characterized by using specific indices of zonality and continentality. A system of recursive equations was fitted to the data using standard regression analysis. For both the aboveground and total NPP, we found a statistically significant increase from the North to the South, but also a decrease from both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts towards the continental center of Siberia. We also found that lower upper-story NPP is compensated by higher understory NPP and vice versa. On the other hand, inconsistencies were identified concerning the share of root biomass in relation to the continentality index.

We present the first comprehensive overview about the state-of-the-art estimates of the Hungarian biospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) balance. Biogeochemical models, statistical time series, and literature data are used together to describe grassland, forest, and arable land specific GHG fluxes. The estimates are aggregated to the country level to approximate the net biospheric greenhouse gas balance for the first time. The results suggest that the overall biospheric GHG balance of Hungary is negative (−13.8 Mt CO2-equivalent year-1), which means net GHG release to the atmosphere. According to this finding, the biosphere does not mitigate anthropogenic GHG emission in the country. More research is needed to constrain the estimates, and to provide reliable uncertainty estimates to the fluxes and stocks. We try to point out important research priorities that can help us to ­better understand the biogeochemical processes of the biosphere in Hungary, and to provide mitigation opportunities for biospheric GHG emission.