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This study investigates the responses of the meridional ocean heat transport (OHT) to heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign into the global ocean surface using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Results show that the poleward OHT in both hemispheres are weakened in response to the positive forcing (i.e., warming) and strengthened in response to the negative forcing (i.e., cooling), with the latter change exceeding the former, manifesting an overall asymmetric response. The OHT responses in the Indo-Pacific to both the warming and the cooling and thus their asymmetry are dominated by its Eulerian-mean component, due primarily to changes in the Indo-Pacific Subtropical Cells. Similarly, the OHT responses in the Atlantic are determined by changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, yet their asymmetry is small due to the mediation from the nonlinear effect of temperature and velocity changes. For the Southern Ocean, the Eulerian-mean component still controls the total OHT responses, yet the largest contribution is from changes in vertical temperature structure. In addition, the asymmetric response in the Southern Ocean is a joint effort among the overturning circulation cells, horizontal gyres, eddies, as well as temperature changes.

Climate models project an enhancement in SST seasonal cycle over the midlatitude oceans under global warming. The underlying mechanisms are investigated using a set of partially coupled experiments, in which the contribution from direct CO2 effects (i.e., the response in the absence of wind change) and wind feedbacks can be isolated from each other. Results indicate that both the direct CO2 and wind effects contribute to the enhancement in the SST seasonal cycle, with the former (latter) being more important in the Northern Hemisphere (Southern Hemisphere). Further decomposition of the wind effect into the wind stress feedback and wind speed feedback reveals the importance of the wind stress–driven ocean response in the change of SST seasonal cycle, a result in contrast to a previous study that ascribed the midlatitude SST seasonal cycle change to the thermodynamic wind speed feedback. The direct CO2 effect regulates the SST seasonal cycle through the warming-induced shoaling in the annual mean mixed layer depth (MLD) as well as the MLD difference between winter and summer. Moreover, the surface wind seasonal cycle changes due solely to the direct CO2 effect are found to bear a great resemblance to the full wind response, suggesting that the root cause for the enhancement of the midlatitude SST seasonal cycle resides in the direct CO2 effect. This notion is further supported by an ocean-alone experiment that reproduces the SST seasonal cycle enhancement under a spatially and temporally homogeneous surface thermal forcing.

Seasonal-to-decadal variability of spice injection in the upper ocean of the subtropical southeastern Pacific (SEP) is investigated using 3-day and 0.25° simulations spanning from 1992 to 2016 in the Consortium for Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean. The spice injection refers to convective mixing through which saline water in the mixed layer is injected into the interior to generate positive temperature and salinity anomalies or spiciness anomaly (SPA). Results show that the spice injection in the SEP occurs during austral winter when the mixed layer is deep, and it leads to a positive SPA in the interior. The interior SPA is found to experience significant interannual variability, which is well correlated with winter mixed layer depth (MLD), with more interior SPA corresponding to deeper MLD. During a strong winter of injection, the interior spiciness change rate can reach up to ~ 0.005 kg m−3 day−1 and the gain of spiciness in the interior ~ 0.2 kg m−3 over the SEP region. The interannual-decadal variability of interior SPA in the SEP has a significantly negative correlation to the low-frequency El Nino–Southern Oscillation index, with larger (smaller) SPA during La Nina (El Nino) conditions.

The response of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean (ETIO) to heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). A significant positive asymmetry in sea surface temperature (SST) is found over the ETIO—the warming responses to the positive forcing exceeds the cooling to the negative forcing. A mixed layer heat budget analysis is carried out to identify the mechanisms responsible for the SST asymmetry. Results show that it is mainly ascribed to the ocean dynamical processes, including vertical advections and diffusion. The net surface heat flux, on the contrary, works to reduce the asymmetry through its shortwave radiation and latent heat flux components. The former is due to the nonlinear relationship between SST and cloud, while the latter is resulted mainly from Newtonian damping and air-sea stability effects. Changes in the SST skewness are also evaluated, with more enhanced negative SST skewness over the ETIO found for the cooling than heating scenarios due to the asymmetric thermocline-SST feedback.

Climate models project a significant shoaling of the thermocline over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean under global warming, which has been generally regarded as a direct response to surface wind change. This study investigates the formation processes for the equatorial Pacific thermocline response to CO2 quadrupling using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). In particular, an overriding method is applied to isolate and quantify the wind stress effect and the direct radiative effect of CO2 emissions. Results show that both effects of the wind stress and direct radiative forcing are equally important for shoaling the equatorial thermocline, with the former responsible for its upper portion change and the latter for its lower portion change. Further passive tracer experiments with the ocean component of the CESM1 verify the role of ocean surface warming in shoaling the equatorial thermocline and identify the ocean circulation change in response to the surface warming as its dynamic cause of formation.

The response of ENSO amplitude to climate warming and cooling is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in which the warming and cooling scenarios are designed by adding heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign onto the ocean surface, respectively. Results show that the warming induces an increase of the ENSO amplitude but the cooling gives rise to a decrease of the ENSO amplitude, and these changes are robust in statistics. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that the increasing (decreasing) SST tendency under climate warming (cooling) is mainly due to an enhancement (weakening) of dynamical feedback processes over the equatorial Pacific, including zonal advective (ZA) feedback, meridional advective (MA) feedback, thermocline (TH) feedback, and Ekman (EK) feedback. As the climate warms, a wind anomaly of the same magnitude across the equatorial Pacific can induce a stronger zonal current change in the east (i.e., a stronger ZA feedback), which in turn produces a greater weakening of upwelling (i.e., a stronger EK feedback) and thus a larger thermocline change (i.e., a stronger TH feedback). In response to the climate warming, in addition, the MA feedback is also strengthened due to an enhancement of the meridional SST gradient around the equator resulting from a weakening of the subtropical cells (STCs). It should be noted that the weakened STCs itself has a negative contribution to the change of the MA feedback which, however, appears to be secondary. And vice versa for the cooling case. Bjerknes linear stability (BJ) index is also evaluated for the linear stability of ENSO, with remarkably larger (smaller) BJ index found for the warming (cooling) case.

The response of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) to greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols are investigated based on historical single-forcing and all-forcing simulations using the Geophysical Fluid D...

Previous observations suggest periodic freshwater patches separating from the Block Island Sound (BIS) estuarine plume. In this study, the dynamics of the separation process is investigated through a series of numerical experiments using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). In addition, we explore the seasonal variability of the freshwater patches and their response to river discharge and ambient current. The model results indicate that episodic freshwater patches are triggered by small changes in tidal currents over the spring-neap tidal cycle. The spring-neap variation in tidal currents causes significant, monthly fluctuations in turbulent mixing and vertical stratification in BIS, modulating the freshwater discharge thereby generating episodic freshwater patches that move both downstream along the southern shore of Long Island and toward Rhode Island Sound (RIS). The realistically configured model shows that the freshwater patches experience strong seasonal variability. They are largest in spring when the river discharge peaks, and smallest in summer due to the weak river discharge and a robust upstream ambient current from RIS. According to the analysis of the freshwater transport out of BIS, we conclude that such detachment occurs at tidal mixing fronts.

A numerical simulation using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) indicates that there was significant interannual-to-interpentadal variability of along-shelf transport and water properties over the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) from 2004 to 2013. To examine the relative contribution from local atmospheric forcing versus remote oceanic open boundary forcing to such low-frequency variability, we implement a suite of process oriented numerical experiments. Results show that the interannual variability is dominated by remote forcing from the open boundaries of the region rather than by local atmospheric forcing. The penetration of the Labrador Current into the region contributes to a significant increase of along-shelf transport in the winters of 2009 and 2010. By contrast, the anti-cyclonic mesoscale eddies associated with the Gulf Stream decrease the background along-shelf jet and, in certain cases, even reverse the along-shelf transport. In addition, the along-shelf transport appears to possess an interpentadal variation, i.e., weaker during 2004–2008 but stronger during 2009–2013, which is found caused by the migration of the Gulf Stream.

The excessive cold tongue error in the equatorial Pacific has persisted in several generations of climate models. Based on the historical simulations and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble (MME), this study finds that models with an excessive westward extension of cold tongue and insufficient equatorial western Pacific precipitation tend to project a weaker east-minus-west gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) warming along the equatorial Pacific under increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. This La Nina-like error of tropical Pacific SST warming is consistent with our understanding of negative SST-convective feedback over the western Pacific warm pool. Based on this relationship between the present simulations and future projections, the present study applies an “observational constraint” of equatorial western Pacific precipitation to calibrate the projections of tropical Pacific climate change. After the corrections, CMIP5 models robustly project an El Nino-like warming pattern, with a MME mean increase by a factor of 2.3 in east-minus-west gradient of equatorial Pacific SST warming and reduced inter-model uncertainty. Corrections in projected changes in tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation are physically consistent. This study suggests that a realistic cold tongue simulation would lead to a more reliable tropical Pacific climate projection.

Climate models project a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD)–like SST response in the tropical Indian Ocean to global warming. By employing the Community Earth System Model and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component (version 2 of the Parallel Ocean Program), this study investigates the similarities and differences of the formation mechanisms for the changes in the tropical Indian Ocean during the pIOD versus global warming. Results show that their formation processes and related seasonality are quite similar; in particular, wind–thermocline–SST feedback is the leading mechanism in producing the anomalous cooling over the eastern tropics in both cases. Some differences are also found, including the fact that the cooling effect of the vertical advection over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean is dominated by the anomalous vertical velocity during the pIOD but by the anomalous upper-ocean stratification under global warming. These findings are further examined through an analysis of the mixed layer heat budget.

Mode water is a distinct water mass characterized by a near vertical homogeneous layer or low potential vorticity, and is considered essential for understanding ocean climate variability. Based on the output of GFDL CM3, this study investigates the response of eastern subtropical mode water (ESTMW) in the North Pacific to two different single forcings: greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosol. Under GHG forcing, ESTMW is produced on lighter isopycnal surfaces and is decreased in volume. Under aerosol forcing, in sharp contrast, it is produced on denser isopycnal surfaces and is increased in volume. The main reason for the opposite response is because surface ocean-to-atmosphere latent heat flux change over the ESTMW formation region shoals the mixed layer and thus weakens the lateral induction under GHG forcing, but deepens the mixed layer and thus strengthens the lateral induction under aerosol forcing. In addition, local wind changes are also favorable to the opposite response of ESTMW production to GHG versus aerosol.

The enhanced central and eastern Pacific SST warming and the associated ocean processes under global warming are investigated using the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2). The tropical SST warming pattern in the coupled CESM can be faithfully reproduced by the POP2 forced with surface fluxes computed using the aerodynamic bulk formula. By prescribing the wind stress and/or wind speed through the bulk formula, the effects of wind stress change and/or the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback are isolated and their linearity is evaluated in this ocean-alone setting. Result shows that, although the weakening of the equatorial easterlies contributes positively to the El Nino-like SST warming, 80 % of which can be simulated by the POP2 without considering the effects of wind change in both mechanical and thermodynamic fluxes. This result points to the importance of the air–sea thermal interaction and the relative feebleness of the ocean dynamical process in the El Nino-like equatorial Pacific SST response to global warming. On the other hand, the wind stress change is found to play a dominant role in the oceanic response in the tropical Pacific, accounting for most of the changes in the equatorial ocean current system and thermal structures, including the weakening of the surface westward currents, the enhancement of the near-surface stratification and the shoaling of the equatorial thermocline. Interestingly, greenhouse gas warming in the absence of wind stress change and WES feedback also contributes substantially to the changes at the subsurface equatorial Pacific. Further, this warming impact can be largely replicated by an idealized ocean experiment forced by a uniform surface heat flux, whereby, arguably, a purest form of oceanic dynamical thermostat is revealed.

[1] Seasonal and interannual variability of the circulation in the Rhode Island Sound (RIS) is investigated by employing the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with two configurations in which a local-scale model with very fine resolution over the RIS is nested within a regional-scale model covering the entire US Northeastern Continental Shelf. The models are driven by tidal harmonics, climatological river discharge, and realistic ocean open boundary conditions and atmospheric forcing from January 2004 to December 2009. Results show that the tidal residual current forms a cyclonic circulation in the RIS, with amplitude of a few centimeters per second. During summer, the cyclonic circulation is significantly strengthened owing to tidal mixing and local stratification. However, due to strong northwesterly winds in winter, the cyclonic circulation disappears and instead the surface currents in the RIS move offshore. Simulations further indicate that the RIS winter currents, in terms of their magnitude and direction, have interannual variability that appears to be related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) winter index. In addition, the southwestward jet near the southern New England shelf break is found to intensify (weaken) during the low (high) phases of the NAO with a lag of about 1 year. The ROMS models are also used to examine the response of the regional ocean circulation to global warming, with both atmospheric forcing and open boundary conditions obtained from global climate model outputs. As the climate warms, it is found that the cyclonic gyre in the RIS is intensified, and this change is due to an intensification of the larger-scale cyclonic coastal ocean circulation over the Middle Atlantic Bight in a warming climate.

The response of the Pacific Ocean circulation to climate change is investigated by comparing solutions from a set of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) coupled models for a present-day climate (the 20C3M experiments) and a future, warmer climate (the SRESA1B experiments). Under the warmer climate scenario, the oceanic changes in the tropical Pacific include a relatively weak warming of the western equatorial thermocline, a weakening of the surface current system and a complicated change in the structure of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) with an increased flow in its upper branch but a decreased flow in its lower branch. As the climate warms, the North Pacific Ocean features a basin-scale reduction in mixed layer depth, a weakening of the subtropical countercurrent (STCC), a northward shift of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) and an overall slowdown of the subtropical gyre. In the South Pacific, the warmer climate induces significant changes in the upper ocean of ...

[1] The response of South Pacific Eastern Subtropical Mode Water (SPESTMW) to global warming is investigated by comparing solutions from a set of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) coupled models between a present-day climate and a future, warmer climate. Under the warmer climate scenario, the SPESTMW extends southwestward and is significantly increased in volume. This is because all the local surface forcing mechanisms (i.e., wind stress, heat and freshwater fluxes) in the eastern subtropical South Pacific tends to de-stratify the upper ocean and thus deepen the mixed layer. Further, a suite of process-oriented experiments with an ocean general circulation model suggest that it is the intensified southeast trade winds under the warmer climate that promotes more heat flux from the ocean into the atmosphere that then results in a deepening of the mixed layer in the eastern subtropics of the South Pacific.

[1] This study investigates the response of the Mode Waters in the North Pacific to global warming based on a set of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) models. Solutions between a present-day climate and a future, warmer climate are compared. Under the warmer climate scenario, the Mode Waters are produced on lighter isopycnal surfaces and are significantly weakened in terms of their formation and evolution. These changes are due to a more stratified upper ocean and thus a shoaling of the winter mixing depth resulting mainly from a reduction of the ocean-to-atmosphere heat loss over the subtropical region. The basin-wide wind stress may adjust the Mode Waters indirectly through its impact on the surface heat flux and subduction process.

n n Global warming may change the thermocline water pathways and transports from the subtropics to the tropics in the Pacific Ocean, which are known to have profound implications for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and thereby global climate. This study investigates the changes by comparing solutions between a present-day climate and a future, warmer climate from a set of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) models. As the climate warms, although the total transport from the subtropics to the tropics exhibits no significant change, transport via western boundary pathways increases and via interior pathways decreases. This shift is due to high potential vorticity (PV) zones that extend further westward, thus dynamically guiding thermocline water away from interior pathways to prefer western boundary pathways from the subtropics to the tropics. Additionally, a warmer climate induces a large temperature increase near the sea surface in the eastern tropics and a significantly enhanced Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) in the western and central Pacific; the former is related to the decreased transport through interior pathways and the latter is linked to the increased transport through western boundary pathways. Implications of the results of this study are also discussed.n