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NASA’s rapid response plan for gathering atmospheric data amid major volcanic eruptions, paired with efforts to improve eruption simulations, will offer better views of these events’ global effects.

Tropospheric features preceding sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs) are identified using a large compendium of events obtained from a chemistry–climate model. In agreement with recent observational studies, it is found that approximately one-third of SSWs are preceded by extreme episodes of wave activity in the lower troposphere. The relationship becomes stronger in the lower stratosphere, where ~60% of SSWs are preceded by extreme wave activity at 100 hPa. Additional analysis characterizes events that do or do not appear to subsequently impact the troposphere, referred to as downward and non-downward propagating SSWs, respectively. On average, tropospheric wave activity is larger preceding downward-propagating SSWs compared to non-downward propagating events, and associated in particular with a doubly strengthened Siberian high. Of the SSWs that were preceded by extreme lower-tropospheric wave activity, ~2/3 propagated down to the troposphere, and hence the presence of extreme lower-tropospheric wave activity can only be used probabilistically to predict a slight increase or decrease at the onset, of the likelihood of tropospheric impacts to follow. However, a large number of downward and non-downward propagating SSWs must be considered (>35), before the difference becomes statistically significant. The precursors are also robust upon comparison with composites consisting of randomly selected tropospheric northern annular mode (NAM) events. The downward influence and precursors to split and displacement events are also examined. It is found that anomalous upward wave-1 fluxes precede both cases. Splits exhibit a near instantaneous, barotropic response in the stratosphere and troposphere, while displacements have a stronger long-term influence.

The stratospheric Brewer--Dobson circulation (BDC) is an important element of climate system as it determines the concentration of radiatively active trace gases like water vapor, ozone and aerosol above the tropopause. Climate models predict that increasing greenhouse gas levels speed up the stratospheric circulation. BDC changes is substantially modulated by different modes of climate variability (QBO, ENSO, solar cycle), including the volcanic aerosols. However, such variability is often not reliably included or represented in current climate model simulations, challenging the evaluation of models’ behavior against observations and constituting a major uncertainty in current climate simulations. Here, we investigate the main differences between the reanalysis and the CCMI/CMIP6 climate models’ response to stratospheric volcanic forcings regarding the depth/strength of the stratospheric BDC, with a focus on potential changes in the deep and shallow circulation branches. We also discuss the key reasons of the discrepancies (incl. uncertainties associated with volcanological forcing datasets and missing direct aerosol heating in the reanalysis) in the BDC response between reanalysis-driven and climate model simulations in the lower, mid and upper stratosphere. Finally, we assess the dynamical mechanisms involved in the volcanically-induced BDC changes to understand the opposite regime between lower, middle and upper stratosphere after the Mt Pinatubo eruption.

The impact of ozone-depleting substances on global lower-stratospheric temperature trends is widely recognized. In the tropics, however, understanding lower-stratospheric temperature trends has proven more challenging. While the tropical lower-stratospheric cooling observed from 1979 to 1997 has been linked to tropical ozone decreases, those ozone trends cannot be of chemical origin, as active chlorine is not abundant in the tropical lower stratosphere. The 1979–97 tropical ozone trends are believed to originate from enhanced upwelling, which, it is often stated, would be driven by increasing concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases. This study, using simple arguments based on observational evidence after 1997, combined with model integrations with incrementally added single forcings, argues that trends in ozone-depleting substances, not well-mixed greenhouse gases, have been the primary driver of temperature and ozone trends in the tropical lower stratosphere until 1997, and this has occurred because ozone-depleting substances are key drivers of tropical upwelling and, more generally, of the entire Brewer–Dobson circulation.

The recent hiatus in global-mean surface temperature warming was characterized by a Eurasian winter cooling trend, and the cause(s) for this cooling is unclear. Here we show that the observed hiatus in Eurasian warming was associated with a recent trend toward weakened stratospheric polar vortices. Specifically, by calculating the change in Eurasian surface air temperature associated with a given vortex weakening, we demonstrate that the recent trend toward weakened polar vortices reduced the anticipated Eurasian warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Those model integrations whose stratospheric vortex evolution most closely matches that in reanalysis data also simulate a hiatus. While it is unclear whether the recent weakening of the midwinter stratospheric polar vortex was forced, a properly configured model can simulate substantial deviations of the polar vortex on decadal timescales and hence such hiatus events, implying that similar hiatus events may recur even as greenhouse gas concentrations rise.

A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model are analyzed in order to assess changes in the Brewer–Dobson Circulation (BDC) over the past 55 years. When trends are computed over the past 55 years, the BDC accelerates throughout the stratosphere, consistent with previous modeling results. However, over the second half of the simulations (i.e., since the late 1980s), the model simulates structural changes in the BDC as the temporal evolution of the BDC varies between regions in the stratosphere. In the mid-stratosphere in the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere, the BDC does not accelerate in the ensemble mean of our simulations despite increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and warming sea surface temperatures, and it even decelerates in one ensemble member. This deceleration is reminiscent of changes inferred from satellite instruments and in situ measurements. In contrast, the BDC in the lower stratosphere continues to accelerate. The main forcing agents for the recent slowdown in the mid-stratosphere appear to be declining ozone-depleting substance (ODS) concentrations and the timing of volcanic eruptions. Changes in both mean age of air and the tropical upwelling of the residual circulation indicate a lack of recent acceleration. We therefore clarify that the statement that is often made that climate models simulate a decreasing age throughout the stratosphere only applies over long time periods and is not necessarily the case for the past 25 years, when most tracer measurements were taken.

Using a global climate model (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Carbon Cycle Stratosphere ) with a well-resolved stratosphere, we test the sensitivity of volcanic aerosol plume dispersion to meteorological conditions by simulating 1 day Mount Pinatubo-like eruptions on 10 consecutive days. The dispersion of the volcanic aerosol is found to be highly sensitive to the ambient meteorology for low-altitude eruptions (16–18 km), with this variability related to anomalous anticyclonic activity along the subtropical jet, which affects the permeability of the tropical pipe and controls the amount of aerosol that is retained by the tropical reservoir. Conversely, a high-altitude eruption scenario (19–29 km) exhibits low meteorological variability. Overcoming day-to-day meteorological variability by spreading the emission over 10 days is shown to produce insufficient radiative heating to loft the aerosol into the stratospheric tropical aerosol reservoir for the low eruption scenario. This results in limited penetration of aerosol into the southern hemisphere (SH) in contrast to the SH transport observed after the Pinatubo eruption. Our results have direct implications for the accurate simulation of past/future volcanic eruptions and volcanically forced climate changes, such as Intertropical Convergence Zone displacement.

Sulfate geoengineering has been proposed as an affordable and climate-effective means to temporarily offset the warming produced by the increase of well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs). This technique would likely have to be applied while and after global intergovernmental measures on emissions of WMGHGs are implemented in order to achieve surface temperature stabilization. The direct radiative effects of sulfur injection in the tropical lower stratosphere can be summarized as increasing shortwave scattering with consequent tropospheric cooling and increasing longwave absorption with stratospheric warming. Indirect radiative effects are related to induced changes in the ozone distribution; stratospheric water vapor abundance,;formation and size of upper-tropospheric cirrus ice particles; and lifetime of long-lived species, namely CH4 in connection with OH changes through several photochemical mechanisms. Direct and indirect effects of sulfate geoengineering both concur to determine the atmospheric response. A review of previous studies on these effects is presented here, with an outline of the important factors that control the amount of sulfur dioxide to be injected in an eventual realization of the experiment. However, we need to take into account that atmospheric models used for these studies have shown a wide range of climate sensitivity and differences in the response to stratospheric volcanic aerosols. In addition, large uncertainties exist in the estimate of some of these aerosol effects.

This paper examines the impact of geoengineering via stratospheric sulfate aerosol on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Chemistry Climate Model. We performed four 30-year simulations with a continuous injection of sulfur dioxide on the equator at 0 degree longitude. The four simulations differ by the amount of sulfur dioxide injected (5Tg per year and 2.5 Tg per year) and the altitude of the injection (16km-25km and 22km-25km). We find that such an injection dramatically alters the quasi-biennial oscillation, prolonging the phase of easterly shear with respect to the control simulation. In the case of maximum perturbation, i.e. highest stratospheric aerosol burden, the lower tropical stratosphere is locked into a permanent westerly QBO phase. This locked QBO westerly phase is caused by the increased aerosol heating and associated warming in the tropical lower stratosphere.

Geoengineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosols has been proposed as a means of temporarily cooling the planet, alleviating some of the side effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, one of the known side effects of stratospheric injections of sulfate aerosols under present-day conditions is a general decrease in ozone concentrations. Here we present the results from two general circulation models and two coupled chemistry-climate models within the experiments G3 and G4 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. On average, the models simulate in G4 an increase in sulfate aerosol surface area density similar to conditions a year after the Mount Pinatubo eruption and a decrease in globally averaged ozone by 1.1−2.1 DU (Dobson unit, 1 DU = 0.001 atm cm) during the central decade of the experiment (2040–2049). Enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on sulfate aerosols leads to an ozone increase in low and middle latitudes, whereas enhanced heterogeneous reactions in polar regions and increased tropical upwelling lead to a reduction of stratospheric ozone. The increase in UV-B radiation at the surface due to ozone depletion is offset by the screening due to the aerosols in the tropics and midlatitudes, while in polar regions the UV-B radiation is increased by 5% on average, with 12% peak increases during springtime. The contribution of ozone changes to the tropopause radiative forcing during 2040–2049 is found to be less than −0.1 W m−2. After 2050, because of decreasing ClOx concentrations, the suppression of the NOx cycle becomes more important than destruction of ozone by ClOx, causing an increase in total stratospheric ozone.

Global aerosol models are used to study the distribution and properties of atmospheric aerosol particles as well as their effects on clouds, atmospheric chemistry, radiation, and climate. The present article provides an overview of the basic concepts of global atmospheric aerosol modeling and shows some examples from a global aerosol simulation. Particular emphasis is placed on the simulation of aerosol particles and their effects within global climate models.