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Summary Climate change is altering the biogeochemical conditions of the ocean, leading to the emergence of novel environmental conditions that may drastically affect the performance of very large marine protected areas (VLMPAs) (area > 100,000 km2). Given the prominent role that VLMPAs play in ocean conservation, determining when and where novel conditions will emerge within VLMPAs is vital for ensuring a healthy ocean in the future. Here, using a non-parametric approach to detect novelty, we show that 60%–87% of the ocean and 76%–97% of VLMPAs are expected to contain novel conditions across multiple biogeochemical variables by 2100, with novel conditions in pH emerging by 2030. With most VLMPAs expected to contain environmental conditions unlike those currently within their boundaries, and given the likelihood of any of these climate futures unfolding, present-day management will need to consider alterations to current and future VLMPA design and use.

Climate change affects natural streamflow regimes globally. To assess alterations in streamflow regimes, typically temporal variations in one or a few streamflow characteristics are taken into account. This approach, however, cannot see simultaneous changes in multiple streamflow characteristics, does not utilize all the available information contained in a streamflow hydrograph, and cannot describe how and to what extent streamflow regimes evolve from one to another. To address these gaps, we conceptualize streamflow regimes as intersecting spectrums that are formed by multiple streamflow characteristics. Accordingly, the changes in a streamflow regime should be diagnosed through gradual, yet continuous changes in an ensemble of streamflow characteristics. To incorporate these key considerations, we propose a generic algorithm to first classify streams into a finite set of intersecting fuzzy clusters. Accordingly, by analyzing how the degrees of membership to each cluster change in a given stream, we quantify shifts from one regime to another. We apply this approach to the data, obtained from 105 natural Canadian streams, during the period of 1966 to 2010. We show that natural streamflow in Canada can be categorized into six regime types, with clear hydrological and geographical distinctions. Analyses of trends in membership values show that alterations in natural streamflow regimes vary among different regions. Having said that, we show that in more than 80 % of considered streams, there is a dominant regime shift that can be attributed to simultaneous changes in streamflow characteristics, some of which have remained previously unknown. Our study not only introduces a new globally relevant algorithm for identifying changing streamflow regimes but also provides a fresh look at streamflow alterations in Canada, highlighting complex and multifaceted impacts of climate change on streamflow regimes in cold regions.

Coral reefs across the globe are facing threats from a variety of anthropogenic disturbances. Consequently, the proportional representation of live scleractinian corals in the benthic community has declined substantially in many regions. In contrast, parts of the reef ecosystem around Mo’orea (French Polynesia) have displayed remarkable rebound potential. Nevertheless, detailed studies of when, where, and to what extent reefs have been disturbed and subsequently recovered in the different reef habitats are lacking. Using long-term monitoring data (2004-2018), we reveal that the spatiotemporal dynamics of benthic communities differ markedly between the contiguous inner (fringing and barrier) and outer (fore) reefs. Coral communities on inner reefs vary spatially but were remarkably stable over 15 yr, exhibiting consistent levels of coral and algal cover, with no evidence for disturbance-driven regimes or community transitions. In contrast, the outer reefs showed marked declines in coral cover following consecutive acute disturbances, but coral recovered rapidly thereafter. Nevertheless, community composition changed significantly, with Pocillopora replacing Acropora as the dominant genus at several sites, indicating a more subtle but potentially critical transition into an alternative state defined by the prevalence of a single, fast-growing genus. Inner reef stability and outer reef recovery provide evidence that the effects of environmental disturbances and chronic anthropogenic stressors can manifest in fundamentally different ways, depending on prevailing conditions. Our results suggest important ecological and physical links between inner and outer reef systems that influence the observed dynamics, emphasizing that reef ecosystem management and conservation strategies need to consider all habitats.

The Dawen River Watershed (DRW), an important sub-basin of the Yellow River, has been experiencing substantial climatic and anthropogenic stresses. Identifying how stressors relate to shifts in vegetation growth is critical for maintaining the health and stability of its regional ecosystems. To address this, we constructed a 20-year dataset (1999–2018) reflecting changes in satellite-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), climate variables, and land use in the DRW. We then used time series, principal component, and partial correlation analyses to detect spatial and temporal patterns in vegetation dynamics over time, as well as linkages with temperature, precipitation, and anthropogenic activities. Over 20 years, the DRW exhibited a warming-greening trend and experienced four regime shifts in its climate-vegetation system, roughly centered on 2001, 2006, 2013, and 2016. Both the average and maximum NDVI increased in all seasons, likely due to favorable changes in seasonal climatic conditions. Temperature was the dominant factor promoting vegetative growth in spring, autumn, and throughout the growing season. Precipitation had a considerable positive effect on the average NDVI during the summer. Spatial analyses indicated that 67.94% of the study area exhibited significant increase in NDVI values over time, mainly locating in the mountains and in Dongping County; Significant NDVI decrease was generally located in the urban expansion areas around cities and counties. Land cover types and annual growth cycles appeared to govern spatial patterns and the extent of variation in vegetation growth, followed by land use–related drivers and climate anomalies. These findings offer an insight on appropriate ecological management and climatic adaptation within the Dawen River Watershed.

The interaction between endogenous dynamics and exogenous environmental variation is central to population dynamics. Although investigations into the effects of changing mean climate are widespread, changing patterns of variation in environmental forcing also affect dynamics in complex ways. Using wavelet and time series analyses, we identify a regime shift in the dynamics of a moth species in California from shorter to longer period oscillations over a 34-year census, and contemporaneous changes in regional precipitation dynamics. Simulations support the hypothesis that shifting precipitation dynamics drove changes in moth dynamics, possibly due to stochastic resonance with delayed density-dependence. The observed shift in climate dynamics and the interaction with endogenous dynamics mean that predicting future population dynamics will require information on both climatic shifts and their interaction with endogenous density-dependence, a combination that is rarely available. Consequently, models based on historical data may be unable to predict future population dynamics.

Analysis and prediction of water level extremes in the eastern Baltic Sea are difficult tasks because of the contribution of various drivers to the water level, the presence of outliers in time series, and possibly non-stationarity of the extremes. Non-stationary modeling of extremes was performed to the block maxima of water level derived from the time series at six locations in the Gulf of Riga and one location in the Baltic proper, Baltic Sea, during 1961–2018. Several parameters of the generalized-extreme-value (GEV) distribution of the measured water level maxima both in the Baltic proper and in the interior of the Gulf of Riga exhibit statistically significant changes over these years. The most considerable changes occur to the shape parameter ξ. All stations in the interior of the Gulf of Riga experienced a regime shift: a drastic abrupt drop in the shape parameter from ξ≈0.03±0.02 to ξ≈-0.36±0.04 around 1986 followed by an increase of a similar magnitude around 1990. This means a sudden switch from a Fréchet distribution to a three-parameter Weibull distribution and back. The period of an abrupt shift (1986–1990) in the shape parameters of GEV distribution in the interior of the Gulf of Riga coincides with the significant weakening of correlation between the water level extremes and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The water level extremes at Kolka at the entrance to the Gulf of Riga reveal a significant linear trend in shape parameter following the ξ≈-0.44+0.01(t-1961) relation. There is evidence of a different course of the water level extremes in the Baltic proper and the interior of the Gulf of Riga. The described changes may lead to greatly different projections for long-term behavior of water level extremes and their return periods based on data from different intervals. Highlights. Water level extremes in the eastern Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Riga are analyzed for 1961–2018. Significant changes in parameters of generalized-extreme-value distribution are identified. Significant linear trend in shape parameter is established at Kolka. The shape parameter changes in a step-like manner. The shape parameter of GEV has regime shifts around 1986 and 1990 in the gulf.

We drilled a core in Tingming Lake (located at the tree line) to conduct pollen and diatom analyses. The pollen record shows that the vegetation ecosystem is very stable and has no obvious regime shift signals, although the vegetable belt has moved gradually upward or downward under the backdrop of climate change. There may be a positive relationship between the vegetation ecosystem stability and the turnover component (βsim). Diatoms, which record the lake ecosystem, show an obvious regime shift signal in 1929 AD, which was possibly was due to environmental changes or decreased nutrient inputs. However, there were fluctuations in species richness and species dissimilarity and there was a slightly increased β diversity (βsor), which was mainly interpreted by the increased turnover component (βsim). It is difficult to determine the relationship between the unstable stability and diversity fluctuations. Therefore, the relationships between diversity and stability in the adjacent vegetation and lake ecosystems are different. It is possible that β diversity partitioning may lead to an improved understanding of ecosystem stability.

Realistic simulation and accurate prediction of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still a challenge. One fundamental obstacle is the so-called spring predictability barrier (SPB), which features a low predictive skill of the ENSO with prediction across boreal spring. Our observational analysis shows that the leading empirical orthogonal function mode of the seasonal Niño3.4 index evolution (i.e., from May to the following April) explains nearly 90% of its total variance, and the principle component is almost identical to the Niño3.4 index in the mature phase. This means a good ENSO prediction for a year ranging May-next April can be achieved if the Niño3.4 index in the mature phase is accurately obtained in advance. In this work, by extracting physically oriented variables in the spring, a linear regression approach that can reproduce the mature ENSO phases in observation is firstly proposed. Further investigation indicates that the specific equation, however, is significantly modulated by an interdecadal regime shift in the air–sea coupled system in the tropical Pacific. During 1980–1999, ocean adjustment and vertical processes were dominant, and the recharge oscillator theory was effective to capture the ENSO evolutions. While, during 2000–2018, zonal advection and thermodynamics became important, and successful prediction essentially relies on the wind stress information and their controlled processes, both zonally and meridionally. These results imply that accounting for the interdecadal regime shift of the tropical Pacific coupled system and the dominant processes in spring in modulating the ENSO evolution could reduce the impact of SPB and improve ENSO prediction.

Hysteresis is a fundamental characteristic of alternative stable state theory, yet evidence of hysteresis is rare. In mesic grasslands, fire frequency regulates transition from grass- to shrub-dominated system states. It is uncertain, however, if increasing fire frequency can reverse shrub expansion, or if grass-shrub dynamics exhibit hysteresis. We implemented annual burning in two infrequently burned grasslands and ceased burning in two grasslands burned annually. With annual fires, grassland composition converged on that of long-term annually burned vegetation due to rapid recovery of grass cover, although shrubs persisted. When annual burning ceased, shrub cover increased, but community composition did not converge with a long-term infrequently burned reference site because of stochastic and lagged dispersal by shrubs, reflecting hysteresis. Our results demonstrated that annual burning can slow, but not reverse, shrub encroachment. In addition, reversing fire frequencies resulted in hysteresis because vegetation trajectories from grassland to shrubland differed from those of shrubland to grassland.

Reducing excessive external nutrient loading is in principle the first adaptive management against eutrophication, whereas little is known about the recovery time of such intervention, especially in the context of global warming. Here, we use an ensemble approach of paleolimnological records and modeling PCLake to evaluate the recovery time of Lake Taibai, China under diverse combinations of nutrient reduction and climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated for seven sensitive parameters and further validated using the total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in sediment cores reconstructed using a diatom-TP transfer function. The paleolimnological records show that species indicative of eutrophic conditions and the diatom-inferred TP (DI-TP) were low before the 1980s and slightly increased thereafter. The calibrated model not only captures the dynamics of TP concentrations but also performs well in identifying the regime shift between the 2 alternative stable states of the lake: macrophyte-dominated (clear) and algae-dominated (turbid) states. The scenarios results suggest that lake restoration (from turbid to clear state) would take 10–20 years with an annual nutrient loading (both N and P) reduction rate of 15–25% from 2019. Meanwhile, global warming would impede the effectiveness of nutrient reduction by not only increasing the restoration time but also decreasing the vegetation restoration level (as indicated by vegetation dry weight in lake water) and critical nutrient loading for re-oligotrophication. Our results imply that in the long run, nutrient loading reduction measurement for sustainable lake restoration should be adjusted following temperature changes. The present study highlights the feasibility and relevance of a novel methodology using paleolimnological records for model calibration and projections. The modeling approach presented here may provide a better understanding and critical implications of the long-term dynamics and future restoration of Lake Taibai and other similar shallow lake ecosystems.

Regime shift is characterized by large, abrupt and persistent changes in ecosystem structure and dynamics. Bifurcation analysis is commonly used to identify regime shift equilibrium states and to distinguish their stability characteristics. Eutrophication in lake, a regime shift from clear-water oligotrophic state, is a stable equilibrium state that can persist for long duration. Characterized by undesirable turbid water condition, eutrophication has been known to impair valuable ecosystem services provided by lakes worldwide. The high incidence of eutrophication in Malaysian lakes (62%) mandates urgent need for lake restoration. The three-fold objectives of this paper are (1) to develop a mathematical model for analysing bifurcation criteria in regime shift, (2) to identify regime shift thresholds and (3) to propose effective ecosystem management strategy for shallow tropical lakes such as Tasik Harapan. A mathematical model consisting of four compartments: algae, phosphorus, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand is formulated to analyse the eutrophication dynamics in the highly eutrophic Tasik Harapan (TH), a small shallow lake in Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM). Bifurcation analysis is performed by means of XPPAUT to identify the regime shift thresholds and to determine the type of lake response. Identified as irreversible, the eutrophication state of TH mandates an urgent lake restoration program to remove nutrients in the lake. Two restoration methods for reducing nutrients are assessed: (1) flushing of lake water and (2) hypothetical application of the invasive water hyacinth. Bifurcation analysis indicates that a flushing rate exceeding 0.042 day-1 is needed to restore TH to oligotrophic state. A complicated strategy of water hyacinth application would reduce the algae concentration from 300 μg/l to 120 μg/l after 9.6 years. A severe shortfall is the complicated and uncertain process of frequent removal of water hyacinth to prevent the lake from being overwhelmed by the invasive plants. The feasibility and sustainability of these two lake restoration methods are discussed. The insights gained would be useful to the relevant authorities in determining and implementing the best remediation measures for TH.

Previous studies have shown that nonlinear atmospheric interactions between ENSO and the warm pool annual cycle generates a combination mode (C-mode), which is responsible for the termination of strong El Niño events and the development of the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP). However, the C-mode has experienced a remarkable decadal change in its characteristics around the early 2000s. The C-mode in both pre- and post-2000 exhibits its characteristic anomalous atmospheric circulation meridional asymmetry but with somewhat different spatial structures and time scales. During 1979–99, the C-mode pattern featured prominent westerly surface wind anomalies in the southeastern tropical Pacific and anticyclonic anomalies over the WNP. In contrast, the C-mode-associated westerly anomalies were shifted farther westward to the central Pacific and the WNP anticyclone was farther westward extended and weaker after 2000. These different C-mode patterns were accompanied by distinct climate impacts over the Indo-Pacific region. The decadal differences of the C-mode are tightly connected with the ENSO regime shift around 2000; that is, the occurrence of central Pacific (CP) El Niño events with quasi-biennial and decadal periodicities increased while the occurrence of eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events with quasi-quadrennial periodicity decreased. The associated near-annual combination tone periodicities of the C-mode also changed in accordance with these changes in the dominant ENSO frequency between the two time periods. Numerical model experiments further confirm the impacts of the ENSO regime shift on the C-mode characteristics. These results have important implications for understanding the C-mode dynamics and improving predictions of its climate impacts.

Ecosystems respond to climatic and anthropogenic forcings with regime shifts and reorganizations of their system structures. In river basins, changes in sediment transport can have cascading effects that cause ecosystem regime shifts. The Yellow River, once the world’s most sediment-rich river, has experienced dramatic regime shifts. Although recent intervention has returned sediment discharge in the Yellow River to pristine levels, our understanding of previous regime shifts remains inadequate, particularly for the regime shift to a sediment rich period during early historical time. We reanalyzed previous datasets to clarify the first historical sediment transport regime shift in the Yellow River. Our results show that while historical climatic changes (e.g., the Medieval Warm Period, about 900–1100 AD) caused changes in sediment transport, a regime shift occurred only under increased forcing from anthropogenic stresses (started from about 1350 AD, reached the tipping point after 1900 AD). This unique behavior of the Yellow River under increasing anthropogenic forces may provide perspective for sustainable river basin management.

The ecological effects of tropical cyclones on mangrove forests are diverse and highly location- and cyclone-dependent. Ecological resistance, resilience, and enhancement are terms that describe most mangrove forest responses to tropical cyclones. However, in the most extreme cases, tropical cyclones can trigger abrupt and irreversible ecological transformations (i.e., ecological regime shifts). Here, we examine a cyclone-induced ecological regime shift that occurred in Everglades National Park (USA), where forest mortality and peat collapse due to a powerful tropical cyclone (the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane) led to the conversion of mangrove forests to mudflats and an estimated elevation loss of approximately 75 cm. We investigated soil elevation change measured in these mangrove forests and adjacent mudflats during a twenty-year period [1998–2018] using Surface Elevation Table-Marker Horizon (SET-MH) methods. This period encompasses the effects of Hurricanes Wilma (2005) and Irma (2017). We also used historical sea-level rise rates and future sea-level rise scenarios to estimate surface elevation changes in the past (1930–1998) and to illustrate elevation gains needed for these ecosystems to adapt to future change. Collectively, our findings advance understanding of the long-term effects of cyclone-induced ecological regime shifts due to forest mortality, peat collapse, and conversion of mangrove forests to mudflats.

The distributions of ice season characteristics in the Baltic Sea during 1982–2016 were studied. A shift in the ice season regime was observed in 2006–2007. Ice season characteristics before and after the shift were determined in the northern and southern regions of the Baltic Sea, and the contributions of these areas to the shift regime were evaluated. To study changes in ice conditions, satellite data on the daily ice concentration over the Baltic Sea provided by the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service were used. The ice cover extent and number of ice days were calculated. The maximal ice extent event of the ice season shifted from the beginning of March to the end of January in 2007. The average ice concentration over the Baltic Sea was 18% and 10% before and after the shift, respectively. On average, 32 and 19 ice days occurred before and after the shift, respectively. The average ice concentration in the northern Baltic was 54% before and 34% after the shift, and the concentration in the southern Baltic was 8% before and 7% after the shift. The determined shift of the ice season characteristics indicated that extensive ice cover does not last long during the after-shift seasons.

The loss of canopy-forming seaweeds from urbanized coasts has intensified in response to warming seas and non-climatic pressures such as population growth and declining water quality. Surprisingly, there has been little information on the extent of historical losses in the South-western Atlantic, which limits our ability to place this large marine ecosystem in a global context. Here, we use meta-analysis to examine long-term (1969-2017) changes to the cover and biomass of Sargassum spp. and structurally simple algal turfs along more than 1,000 kilometres of Brazil's warm temperate coastline. Analysis revealed major declines in canopy cover that were independent of season (i.e., displaying similar trends for both summer and winter) but varied with coastal environmental setting, whereby sheltered bays experienced greater losses than coastal locations. On average, covers of Sargassum spp. declined by 2.6% per year, to show overall losses of 52% since records began (ranging from 20% to 89%). This contrasted with increases in the cover of filamentous turfs (24% over the last 27 years) which are known to proliferate along human-impacted coasts. To test the relative influence of climatic versus non-climatic factors as drivers of this apparent canopy-to-turf shift, we examined how well regional warming trends (decadal changes to sea surface temperature) and local proxies of coastal urbanization (population density, thermal pollution, turbidity and nutrient inputs) were able to predict the changes in seaweed communities. Our results revealed that the most pronounced canopy losses over the past 50 years were at sites exhibiting the greatest degree of coastal warming, the highest population growth and those located in semi-enclosed sheltered bays. These findings contribute knowledge on the drivers of canopy loss in the South-western Atlantic and join with global efforts to understand and mitigate declines of marine keystone species.

Tree growth at northern treelines is generally temperature-limited due to cold and short growing seasons. However, temperature-induced drought stress was repeatedly reported for certain regions of the boreal forest in northwestern North America, provoked by a significant increase in temperature and possibly reinforced by a regime shift of the pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The aim of this study is to better understand physiological growth reactions of white spruce, a dominant species of the North American boreal forest, to PDO regime shifts using quantitative wood anatomy and traditional tree-ring width (TRW) analysis. We investigated white spruce growth at latitudinal treeline across a >1,000 km gradient in northwestern North America. Functionally important xylem anatomical traits (lumen area, cell-wall thickness, cell number) and TRW were correlated with the drought-sensitive standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index of the growing season. Correlations were computed separately for complete phases of the PDO in the 20th century, representing alternating warm/dry (1925-1946), cool/wet (1947-1976) and again warm/dry (1977-1998) climate regimes. Xylem anatomical traits revealed water-limiting conditions in both warm/dry PDO regimes, while no or spatially contrasting associations were found for the cool/wet regime, indicating a moisture-driven shift in growth-limiting factors between PDO periods. TRW reflected only the last shift of 1976/1977, suggesting different climate thresholds and a higher sensitivity to moisture availability of xylem anatomical traits compared to TRW. This high sensitivity of xylem anatomical traits permits to identify first signs of moisture-driven growth in treeline white spruce at an early stage, suggesting quantitative wood anatomy being a powerful tool to study climate change effects in the northwestern North American treeline ecotone. Projected temperature increase might challenge growth performance of white spruce as a key component of the North American boreal forest biome in the future, when drier conditions are likely to occur with higher frequency and intensity.

In this study, we analyzed the impacts of Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) on tropical cyclone (TC) activity on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Based on a clustering analysis method, we grouped TCs in the Western North Pacific into three clusters according to their track patterns. We mainly focus on Cluster 1 (C1) TCs in this work, which is characterized by forming north of 15° N and moving northward. On interannual timescale, the number of C1 TCs is influenced by the intensity variability of the WNPSH, which is represented by the first Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of 850 hPa geopotential height of the region. The WNPSH itself is modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation at its peak phase in the previous winter, as well as Indian and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies in following seasons. The second EOF mode shows the interdecadal change of WNPSH intensity. The interdecadal variability of WNPSH intensity related to the Pacific climate regime shift could cause anomalies of the steering flow, and lead to the longitudinal shift of C1 TC track. Negative phases of interdecadal Pacific oscillation are associated with easterly anomaly of steering flow, westward shift of C1 TC track, and large TC impact on the East Asia coastal area.

Recent changes in precipitation regime in South-East Asia are a subject of ongoing discussion. In this article, for the first time, evidence of a precipitation regime shift during the mid-1970s in the Northern Hemispheric part of South-East Asia is demonstrated. The detection of regime shifts is made possible by using a new comprehensive dataset of daily precipitation records (South-East Asian Climate Assessment and Dataset) and applying a novel Bayesian approach for regime shift detection. After the detected regime shift event in the mid-1970s, significant changes in precipitation distribution occurred in the Northern Hemispheric regions—Indochina Peninsula and the Philippines. More specifically, dry days became up to 10% more frequent in some regions. However, no precipitation regime shift is detected in Southern Hemisphere regions—Java and Northern Australia, were the number of observed dry days increased gradually.

This study investigates the interdecadal variations of rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) over Western North Pacific (WNP) during 1960-2016, TC variabilities associated with RI and the possible mechanisms for such variations are also explored. Two RI-active periods (P1:1960-1972, P3:2000-2016) and one RI-inactive period (P2:1973-1999) are identified using Regime Shift Detection method based on the RI-TC ratio data. RI spatial distributions all exhibit a common Main Development Region. Significant different characteristics of the TC genesis and lifetime maximum intensity location are observed between RITCs and Non-RI TCs and in each period. The majority of RITCs starts with initial intensity at 35-80 kts, and P2 shows an obvious displacement of these TC occurrences. The longitudinal distributions of RI ratio demonstrate totally different patterns. The higher SST and relative humidity, as well as stronger VWS, lead to the highest RI ratio in P3. TCs in P2 have less chance to undergo RI due to the eastward extension of monsoon trough associated with a more eastward movement of TC occurrence away from MDR. The environmental conditions are obviously unfavorable for RI in the Western WNP in P2, as well as in P1. Our findings imply that the TC variabilities are affected by the decadal variations of RI events and the changes in TC occurrence along with the RI-favored environmental fields all contribute to the RI variations at interdecadal scales.

Previous studies reported an “abrupt regime shift” in the relationship between the East African short rains (EASR), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) around 1982. Using observational datasets over the 1951–2018 period, the relationship between large-scale circulation anomalies and EASR before and after 1982 is investigated. Two physical processes that account for rainfall formation over East Africa (EA) are proposed. First, warming over the western Indian Ocean induces Rossby waves that trigger meridional wind convergence anomalies. These are linked with positive rainfall anomalies over EA. Second, strengthened lower level easterly winds over the equatorial Indian Ocean led to a surge of moisture flux flow toward EA, hence contributes to the formation of rainfall. Factors related to positive (negative) rainfall anomalies are of keen interest. They frequently occurred after (before) the regime shift of 1982 than prior to (after) the regime shift. For wet years, co-occurrence of El Nino and positive IOD events’ contribution is more comparable to pure positive IOD and El Nino events. For dry years, the co-occurrence of La Nina and negative IOD is quite similar to pure negative IOD events. This paper studies the major regime shifts of 1982 and 1997. The decadal variations around 1982 (1997) are linked with suppressed (enhanced) rainfall over EA. Therefore, the dynamics governing the relationship between winds, Indian, Pacific Ocean SST, and EASR varies on an interdecadal scale. Understanding the cause of this variability is needed to achieve an improved long-lead empirical rainfall predictions.

In this era of global environmental change and rapid regime shifts, managing core areas that species require to survive and persist is a grand challenge for conservation. Wildlife monitoring data are often limited or local in scale. The emerging ability to map and track spatial regimes (i.e., the spatial manifestation of state transitions) using advanced geospatial vegetation data has the potential to provide earlier warnings of habitat loss because many species of conservation concern strongly avoid spatial regime boundaries. Using 23 yr of data for the lek locations of Greater Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus cupido; GPC) in a remnant grassland ecosystem, we demonstrate how mapping changes in the boundaries between grassland and woodland spatial regimes provide a spatially explicit early warning signal for habitat loss for an iconic and vulnerable grassland-obligate known to be highly sensitive to woody plant encroachment. We tested whether a newly proposed metric for the quantification of spatial regimes captured well-known responses of GPC to woody plant expansion into grasslands. Resource selection functions showed that the grass:woody spatial regime boundary strength explained the probability of 80% of relative lek occurrence, and GPC strongly avoided grass:woody spatial regime boundaries at broad scales. Both findings are consistent with well-known expectations derived from GPC ecology. These results provide strong evidence for vegetation-derived delineations of spatial regimes to serve as generalized signals of early warning for state transitions that have major consequences to biodiversity conservation. Mapping spatial regime boundaries over time provided interpretable early warnings of habitat loss. Woody plant regimes displaced grassland regimes starting from the edges of the study area and constricting inward. Correspondingly, the relative probability of lek occurrence constricted in space. Similarly, the temporal trajectory of spatial regime boundary strength increased over time and moved closer to the observed limit of GPC lek site usage relative to grass:woody boundary strength. These novel spatial metrics allow managers to rapidly screen for early warning signals of spatial regime shifts and adapt management practices to defend and grow habitat cores at broad scales.

Rainfed agricultural systems have become more vulnerable to climate change due to their significant dependence on natural precipitation. Drastic changes in precipitation, superimposed with anthropogenic activities, including land use land cover change, can modify the hydrologic response, especially in agricultural watersheds. In this study, Fisher Information and cumulative sum charts (CUMSUM) methods were applied to detect the hydrologic regime shifts in six watersheds in Illinois, USA. The regime shift analysis identified shifts in streamflow regime in three agricultural watersheds, mainly around the 1970s, whereas, no significant change in streamflow was observed for forest-dominated watersheds. Furthermore, the Budyko framework was used to determine the relative contribution in streamflow alterations (i.e., regime shifts in streamflow) for the agricultural watersheds, which evidenced significant shifts in streamflow. The Budyko analysis inferred that alterations in streamflow could be primarily attributed to anthropogenic activities with a comparatively lower contribution from climate in agricultural watersheds. The relative contribution from anthropogenic activities were 71.66%, 81.46%, and 74.04%, whereas, the relative contribution from climate were 28.34%, 18.54%, and 25.96% for the Sangamon, Vermillion, and Skillet agricultural watersheds, respectively. The techniques used and the results obtained from the study would be helpful for future research in assessing the vulnerability and impact of management practices in a highly managed agricultural watershed.

With the recent rising attention and debates on the role of natural gas, especially liquid natural gas, in energy transition, it is critical to have a consistent approach in assessing uncertainties and dynamics in the global gas market during the next two to three decades. There are two objectives of this paper. The first one is to estimate and discuss the impacts of the global liquified natural gas (LNG) trade under a low-carbon scenario using a partial equilibrium model. The second objective is to discuss the role of a structural economic model in empirical analysis and strategy design under a regime shift, such as an energy transition, for the global natural gas market.

This paper examines the character of phytoplankton blooms in a restricted sub-tropical lagoon along the Atlantic coast of central Florida. The results of the 23-year study (1997–2020) provide evidence for multiple types of variability in bloom activity, including cyclical patterns, stochastic events, and most prominently a regime shift in composition and intensity. Cyclical patterns (e.g., El Niño/La Niña periods) and stochastic events (e.g., tropical storms) influenced rainfall levels, which in turn impacted nutrient concentrations in the water column and the timing and intensity of blooms. In 2011, a major change occurred in the character of blooms, with a dramatic increase in peak biomass levels of blooms and the appearance of new dominant taxa, including the brown tide speciesAureoumbra lagunensisand other nanoplanktonic species. Results of quantitative analyses reveal system behavior indicative of a regime shift. The shift coincided with widespread losses of seagrass community and reduced drift algae biomass. A combination of exceptionally low water temperatures in the winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011, hypersaline conditions associated with drought conditions, and high light attenuation caused by blooms appear to have contributed to the widespread and protracted decline in seagrass and drift macroalgal communities in the lagoon, leading to shifts in distribution of internal and external nutrient sources toward phytoplankton.

As the ocean warms, the frequency, duration, intensity, and range of marine heatwaves (MHWs) increase. MHWs are becoming a severe challenge for marine ecosystems. However, our understanding in regard to their impacts on algal structure and carbon sequestration is still deficient or fragmentary, particularly when combined with ocean warming and acidification. In this paper, we reviewed the impacts of MHWs individually and combined with ocean warming and acidification on regime shift in algal community and carbon sequestration of both macroalgae and microalgae. Solid evidence shows that MHWs cause the decline of large canopy macroalgae and increase of turf-forming macroalgae in abundance, leading to the regime shift from kelp forests to seaweed turfs. Furthermore, increased grazing pressure on kelps due to tropicalization facilitates the expansion of turfs that prevent the recovery of kelps through plundering light and space. Meanwhile, MHWs could trigger microalgal blooms and the intensity of algal blooms is regulated by the severity of MHWs and nutrient availability. MHWs could lead to the decrease of carbon burial and sequestration by canopy-forming macroalgae due to depressed growth and increased mortality. The effects of MHWs on the productivity of microalgae are latitude-dependent: negative effects at low and mid-latitudes whilst positive effects at high latitudes. Ocean warming and acidification may accelerate the shift from kelps to turfs and thus decrease the carbon sequestration by canopy-forming macroalgae further. We propose that MHWs combined with ocean warming and acidification would reduce the biodiversity and facilitate the thriving of morphologically simple, ephemeral and opportunistic turfs and diatoms in coastal oceans, and phytoplankton with smaller size in open oceans. This structure shift would not be in favor of long-term carbon sequestration. Future studies could be conducted to test this hypothesis and investigate the impacts of MHWs on carbon sequestration under future ocean conditions.

Climate extremes are becoming more frequent with global climate change and have the potential to cause major ecological regime shifts. Along the northern Gulf of Mexico, a coastal wetland in Texas suffered sudden vegetation dieback following an extreme precipitation and flooding event associated with Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Historical salt marsh dieback events have been linked to climate extremes, such as extreme drought. However, to our knowledge, this is the first example of extreme precipitation and flooding leading to mass mortality of the salt marsh foundation species, Spartina alterniflora. Here, we investigated the relationships between baseline climate conditions, extreme climate conditions, and large-scale plant mortality to provide an indicator of ecosystem vulnerability to extreme precipitation events. We identified plant zonal boundaries along an elevation gradient with plant species tolerant of hypersaline conditions, including succulents and graminoids, at higher elevations, and flood-tolerant species, including S. alterniflora, at lower elevations. We quantified a flooding threshold for wetland collapse under baseline conditions characterized by incremental increases in flooding (i.e., sea level rise). We proposed that the sudden widespread dieback of S. alterniflora following Hurricane Harvey was the result of extreme precipitation and flooding that exceeded this threshold for S. alterniflora survival. Indeed, S. alterniflora dieback occurred at elevations above the wetland collapse threshold, illustrating a heightened vulnerability to flooding that could not be predicted from baseline climate conditions. Moreover, the spatial pattern of vegetation dieback indicated that underlying stressors may have also increased susceptibility to dieback in some S. alterniflora marshes.Collectively, our results highlight a new mechanism of sudden vegetation dieback in S. alterniflora marshes that is triggered by extreme precipitation and flooding. Furthermore, this work emphasizes the importance of considering interactions between multiple abiotic and biotic stressors that can lead to shifts in tolerance thresholds and incorporating climate extremes into climate vulnerability assessments to accurately characterize future climate threats.

The stability of food web is a hot issue and a research frontier in ecology which has attracted widespread interests. In this research, a new investigation is conducted on the stability of food web. We take Somme Bay as a study case and employ a dynamic model to analyze food web characteristics, with the model parameters determined by energy flow balance. Based on the model, the food web of Somme Bay is studied via the changing growth rates of producers and the observation of dynamical complexity, species extinction and food web structure. Comparing with former works, a few interesting results are obtained: (1) living dependence, species extinction cascade, competition, “couple” phenomenon between taxonomic groups are clarified; (2) complex dynamics may emerge from the dynamic model and the occurrence of chaos predicts the coming of species extinction; (3) eight degraded food web structures are found, which reflects the possible regime shifts. With the analyses of the food web characteristics in response to the change of key parameters, this research may provide a new way to study the stability and regime shifts.

Seagrasses are threatened worldwide due to anthropogenic and natural disturbances disrupting the multiple feedbacks needed to maintain these ecosystems. If the disturbance is severe enough, seagrass systems may undergo a regime shift to a degraded system state that is resistant to recovery. In Florida Bay, Florida, United States, two recent, large-scale disturbances (a drought-induced seagrass die-off in 2015 and Hurricane Irma in 2017) have caused 8,777 ha of seagrass beds to degrade into a turbid, unvegetated state, causing a large sediment plume. Using satellite imagery digitization and long-term seagrass cover data, we investigate the expansion of this sediment plume between 2008 and 2020 and the potential interaction of this sediment plume with seagrass recovery in two focal basins in Florida Bay affected by the die-off, Johnson and Rankin. The average size of the sediment plume increased by 37% due to the die-off and Hurricane Irma, increasing from an average of 163.5 km2 before the disturbances to an average of 223.5 km2. The expansion of the plume was basin-specific, expanding into Johnson after the 2015 seagrass die-off with expansive and long-lasting effects, but only expanding into Rankin after Hurricane Irma with less severe and short-term effects. Furthermore, the sediment plume was negatively correlated with seagrass cover in Johnson, but held no relationship with seagrass cover in Rankin. Thus, different disturbances can act upon seagrass ecosystems at varying scales with varying consequences. This study illustrates the advantage of combining satellite imagery with field data to monitor disturbances as well as highlights the importance of investigating disturbances of seagrass ecosystems at various scales to comprehend seagrass resilience in the context of future extreme events.

Strong physical disturbance from hurricanes can disrupt coral reef ecosystems and precipitate a regime shift toward algal dominance, particularly in the absence of grazing pressure to regulate algal growth post-storm. Here, we examine the influence of Hurricane Irma on a keystone grazer, Diadema antillarum, and the surrounding coral reef benthic community in the Florida Keys. D. antillarum densities and test diameters, as well as percent cover of coral reef benthic groups, were measured at 10 sites in the middle and upper Keys before and after Irma. Significant decreases in mean D. antillarum density and median test diameter were observed following the storm. There was a correlation between the magnitude of decline in D. antillarum density and the magnitude of sediment deposition on reefs, suggesting that abrasion or burial from sediment transport may have contributed to D. antillarum mortality. We detected significant decreases in the percent cover of sponges and hydrocorals following the storm, but no change in scleractinian coral cover, which was very low (3% mean cover) at the onset of the study. Macroalgal cover increased at sites in the upper Keys and decreased at sites in the middle Keys. There was no relationship between post-storm D. antillarum density and the change in percent cover of macroalgae or turf-algal-sediment matrix (TAS), likely due to low overall abundance of the grazer. We predict that coral reefs will remain in an algal-dominated ecosystem state due to, among other factors, increasing frequency of strong hurricanes that impact the D. antillarum population.

Central Africa (CA) is identified as a location of a large positive trend of the occurrence of heat waves (HWs) during 1979–2016, appearing to result mostly from a regime shift around the year 2000. Therefore, we study the evolution of synoptic features associated with the occurrence of HW events in CA. It is found that the HW-related circulation is typically characterized by an anomalous convergence in the upper troposphere but there are important differences for HW events occurring in the south region of CA (CA_S) versus the north region (CA_N). For the occurrence of the HW events in CA_S, the anomalous subsidence associated with upper troposphere anomalous convergence is the dominant factor for their occurrence and magnitude: the strong subsidence leads to warming through greater solar insolation. The HW events in CA_S are also accompanied by an anomalous surface anticyclone in the north with anomalous northerly flow transporting heat into the CA_S region. In contrast, although the HW events in CA_N are also associated with upper troposphere anomalous convergence, the intensity of the convergence is weak with small solar insolation. Instead, the anomalous warm advection is the main factor for determining the magnitude of the HW events in CA_N, induced by the prevailing northerly winds acting on the anomalous temperature gradient. Thus, the synoptic features associated with HW events in the CA_N and CA_S are quite different despite their nearby locations. The discovered dominant factors for the HW events in CA can be used to improve the forecast skill.

Extensive degradation of near-surface permafrost is projected during the twenty-first century1, which will have detrimental effects on northern communities, ecosystems and engineering systems. This degradation is predicted to have consequences for many processes, which previous modelling studies have suggested would occur gradually. Here we project that soil moisture will decrease abruptly (within a few months) in response to permafrost degradation over large areas of the present-day permafrost region, based on analysis of transient climate change simulations performed using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. This regime shift is reflected in abrupt increases in summer near-surface temperature and convective precipitation, and decreases in relative humidity and surface runoff. Of particular relevance to northern systems are changes to the bearing capacity of the soil due to increased drainage, increases in the potential for intense rainfall events and increases in lightning frequency. Combined with increases in forest fuel combustibility, these are projected to abruptly and substantially increase the severity of wildfires, which constitute one of the greatest risks to northern ecosystems, communities and infrastructures. The fact that these changes are projected to occur abruptly further increases the challenges associated with climate change adaptation and potential retrofitting measures. Permafrost thaw due to rising temperatures will impact soil hydrology in the Arctic. Abrupt changes in soil moisture and land–atmosphere processes may alter the bearing capacity of soil and increase susceptibility to wildfires, with consequences for adapting engineering systems in the region.

Significance In recent years, tropical species have expanded poleward into temperate regions. For example, along the east coast of North America, mangroves have expanded into salt marshes in response to decreases in the frequency of extreme freezes. But questions remain about how mangrove abundance has changed over longer timescales and the role of anthropogenic climate change. We used a mixed methods approach to document a series of climate-driven shifts in mangrove abundance over the past 250 y. However, climate model projections suggest warming may push this fluctuating system toward a persistent state of mangrove dominance. This historical approach can be applied to a variety of ecosystems to place the effects of climate change in the context of long-term natural climate variability., Climate change is driving the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems by shifting the range edges of numerous species poleward. Over the past few decades, mangroves have rapidly displaced salt marshes near multiple poleward mangrove range limits, including in northeast Florida. It is uncertain whether such mangrove expansions are due to anthropogenic climate change or natural climate variability. We combined historical accounts from books, personal journals, scientific articles, logbooks, photographs, and maps with climate data to show that the current ecotone between mangroves and salt marshes in northeast Florida has shifted between mangrove and salt marsh dominance at least 6 times between the late 1700s and 2017 due to decadal-scale fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events. Model projections of daily minimum temperature from 2000 through 2100 indicate an increase in annual minimum temperature by 0.5 °C/decade. Thus, although recent mangrove range expansion should indeed be placed into a broader historical context of an oscillating system, climate projections suggest that the recent trend may represent a more permanent regime shift due to the effects of climate change.

The nutrient regime has changed significantly in the Bohai Sea (BS) during the past six decades because of anthropogenic perturbations. Specifically, the concentration of DIN increased by about 7-fold from the end of the 1950s to the mid-2010s, while DIP and DSi concentrations decreased from the end of the 1950s to the beginning of the 1990s, and have since increased again. Unsynchronized changes in nutrient levels have led to changes in the nutrients structure, which has caused a series of ecological effects. Phytoplankton biomass increased by 6-fold from the 1960s to the mid-2010s. Additionally, phytoplankton composition shifted from a diatom-dominated to a dinoflagellate-dominated system, and the dominant species of macrozoobenthos changed. Red tides rarely occurred before the 1980s, but have occurred periodically and frequently since the 1990s. Finally, the BS ecosystem has shifted from an N-limited oligotrophic state before the 1990s to a potentially P-limited eutrophic state.

Phytoplankton time-series enable the observation of recurrent seasonal patterns on community composition, but drastic shifts in community structure are rarely observed, unless linked to anthropogenic impacts (e.g. changes in nutrient inputs). Here, we report a unique case of non-seasonal, multiannual regime shift of phytoplankton community structure in Lake Kivu, East Africa, and explore the possible causes for such changes. We recorded phytoplankton biomass every 2 weeks over a period of 12 years (from 2002 to 2015). Phytoplankton community previously dominated by cyanobacteria and diatoms changed considerably from 2012, with a conspicuous rise in the biomass of green algae (from 3 to 33% lake-wide), and a decline of cryptophytes and cyanobacteria along with an increase in total chlorophyll a concentration. Concomitantly, we observed significant differences in the mixed layer depth between the two periods, resulting from changes in the thermal gradient. The euphotic zone depth was also reduced in 2012–2015, probably from the higher phytoplankton biomass. Moreover, mean particulate nitrogen and phosphorus increased as well as the particulate N:P ratio. Desmids (Cosmarium laeve) now dominate the mixolimnion, probably due to atelomixis, observed in high-frequency temperature measurements. We believe that decadal or multidecadal variability of climate on the Indian Ocean may be the reason for this regime shift in thermal stratification, with a strong impact in phytoplankton community structure. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that tropical lakes may be subject to non-seasonal fluctuations that generate multiannual regime shifts. These regime shifts have probably never been reported previously because of the lack of long phytoplankton time-series in low latitudes.

Environmental change and biotic interactions both govern the evolution of the biosphere, but the relative importance of these drivers over geological time remains largely unknown. Previous work suggests that, unlike environmental parameters, diversity dynamics differ profoundly between the Palaeozoic and post-Palaeozoic eras. Here we use the fossil record to test the hypothesis that the influence of ocean chemistry and climate on the ecological success of marine calcifiers decreased throughout the Phanerozoic eon. Marine calcifiers build skeletons of calcite or aragonite, and the precipitation of these calcium carbonate polymorphs is governed by the magnesium-to-calcium ratio and temperature in abiotic systems. We developed an environmental forcing model based on secular changes of ocean chemistry and temperature and assessed how well the model predicts the proliferation of skeletal taxa with respect to calcium carbonate polymorphs. Abiotic forcing governs the ecological success of aragonitic calcifiers from the Ordovician to the Middle Jurassic, but not thereafter. This regime shift coincides with the proliferation of calcareous plankton in the mid-Mesozoic. The deposition of biomineralizing plankton on the ocean floor buffers CO2 excursions and stabilizes Earth’s biochemical cycle, and thus mitigates the evolutionary impact of environmental change on the marine biota. Controls on the ecological success of marine calcifiers changed from abiotic to biotic in the mid-Jurassic, according an environmental forcing model compared with skeletal taxa.