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Researchers often use gridded datasets to develop statistical relationships between climate and natural resources at locations that are distant from weather stations. These gridded datasets may provide inaccurate estimates of temperature at sites with elevations that differ significantly from the elevation assigned to the corresponding grid cell. We assess the accuracy of three gridded climate datasets commonly used in ecological studies (800‐m resolution PRISM, 4‐km GRIDMET, and 1‐km Daymet) compared with a network of 153 temperature dataloggers arranged along elevation transects in Yellowstone National Park (Wyoming, Montana, Idaho). Measured lapse rates for monthly average daytime high temperatures were generally steeper (more cooling per unit of elevation increase) than lapse rates in gridded datasets and steeper than those in similar mountainous regions. Measured lapse rates for monthly average nighttime lows were similar to gridded data lapse rates. Our measured lapse rates are most useful for the adjustment of daytime highs from weather stations or gridded data during warmer months. Temperatures during cooler months sometimes are strongly affected by other factors. Ecologically relevant metrics calculated from temperatures adjusted with constant lapse rates can increase multiplicatively and by varying amounts from year to year. For example, high‐elevation estimates of climatic water deficit (CWD) calculated from gridded data that were not adjusted with our measured lapse rates were 2.5–4 times greater (depending on the year) than calculations from temperatures that were adjusted. Our results emphasize the importance of correcting grid‐based climate estimates for elevation in complex terrain when accurate, site‐specific data are required. When the elevation assigned to grid cells differs significantly from the elevation of points within the cell, the lapse rate obtained for data extracted from grids can be shallower than the true rate. We illustrate the implications of these findings with case studies in Yellowstone.

A robust method for characterizing the biophysical environment of terrestrial vegetation uses the relationship between Actual Evapotranspiration (AET) and Climatic Water Deficit (CWD). These variables are usually estimated from a water balance model rather than measured directly and are often more representative of ecologically-significant changes than temperature or precipitation. We evaluate trends and spatial patterns in AET and CWD in the Continental United States (CONUS) during 1980–2019 using a gridded water balance model. The western US had linear regression slopes indicating increasing CWD and decreasing AET (drying), while the eastern US had generally opposite trends. When limits to plant performance characterized by AET and CWD are exceeded, vegetation assemblages change. Widespread increases in aridity throughout the west portends shifts in the distribution of plants limited by available moisture. A detailed look at Sequoia National Park illustrates the high degree of fine-scale spatial variability that exists across elevation and topographical gradients. Where such topographical and climatic diversity exists, appropriate use of our gridded data will require sub-setting to an appropriate area and analyzing according to categories of interest such as vegetation communities or across obvious physical gradients. Recent studies have successfully applied similar water balance models to fire risk and forest structure in both western and eastern U.S. forests, arid-land spring discharge, amphibian colonization and persistence in wetlands, whitebark pine mortality and establishment, and the distribution of arid-land grass species and landscape scale vegetation condition. Our gridded dataset is available free for public use. Our findings illustrate how a simple water balance model can identify important trends and patterns at site to regional scales. However, at finer scales, environmental heterogeneity is driving a range of responses that may not be simply characterized by a single trend.

Managing climate impacts to natural resources in protected areas can be hampered by lack of monitoring data, poor understanding of natural resource responses to climate, or lack of timely condition assessments that can inform management actions. Here we demonstrate the utility of water balance as a tool for understanding natural resource responses to climate by developing case studies focused on stream flow, vegetation production, and wildfire ignition at Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve (GSDNP), U.S.A. The efficacy of water balance to predict these responses stems from the explicit integration of climate with site conditions that modify the effects of climate. This in turn results in estimates of water availability, water use, and water need that are proximal drivers of aquatic and terrestrial natural resource conditions. The water balance model successfully forecasted stream flow (r2 = 0.69, P

After the elimination of wolves (Canis lupis L.) in the 1920s, woody riparian plant communities on the northern range of Yellowstone National Park (YNP) declined an estimated 50%. After the reintroduction of wolves in 1995-1996, riparian willows (Salix spp.) on YNP's northern range showed significant growth for the first time since the 1920s. However, the pace of willow recovery has not been uniform. Some communities have exceeded 400 cm, while others are still at pre-1995 levels of 250 cm max. height) willow sites where willows had escaped elk (Cervus elaphus L.) browsing with "short" willow sites that could still be browsed. Unlike studies that manipulated willow height with fences and artificial dams, we examined sites that had natural growth differences in height since the reintroduction of wolves. Tall willow sites had greater water availability, more-rapid net soil nitrogen mineralization, greater snow depth, lower soil respiration rates, and cooler summer soil temperatures than nearby short willow sites. Most of these differences were measured both in herbaceous areas adjacent to the willow patches and in the willow patches themselves, suggesting that they were not effects of varying willow height recovery but were instead preexisting site differences that may have contributed to increased plant productivity. Our results agree with earlier studies in experimental plots which suggest that the varying pace of willow recovery has been influenced by abiotic limiting fac- tors that interact with top-down reductions in willow browsing by elk.

Two Agrostis taxa occur in geothermal habitats of Yellowstone National Park: Agrostis rossiae is reported to be endemic to the thermal areas and A. scabra occurs both in thermal and nonthermal habitats. Thermal populations of both taxa are always surrounded by a nonthermal population of A. scabra that is reproductively isolated from the thermal plants by its later flowering time (summer rather than spring). Since Agrostis species are well known for their ability to form edaphic ecotypes, we used common garden and greenhouse experiments to test the hypothesis that “soil type” (a complex variable including factors such as soil chemistry and soil biotic community) was responsible for the separation of the thermal and nonthermal populations. In addition, field monitoring and growth chamber experiments were used to determine whether soil temperature affected the local distribution of these taxa. The results indicate that the thermal and nonthermal taxa are affected similarly by both soil temperature and soil t...

Climate models project a general decline in western US snowpack throughout the 21st century, but long-term, spatially fine-grained, management-relevant projections of snowpack are not available for Yellowstone National Park. We focus on the implications that future snow declines may have for oversnow vehicle (snowmobile and snowcoach) use because oversnow tourism is critical to the local economy and has been a contentious issue in the park for more than 30 years. Using temperature-indexed snow melt and accumulation equations with temperature and precipitation data from downscaled global climate models, we forecast the number of days that will be suitable for oversnow travel on each Yellowstone road segment during the mid- and late-21st century. The west entrance road was forecast to be the least suitable for oversnow use in the future while the south entrance road was forecast to remain at near historical levels of driveability. The greatest snow losses were forecast for the west entrance road where as little as 29% of the December-March oversnow season was forecast to be driveable by late century. The climatic conditions that allow oversnow vehicle use in Yellowstone are forecast by our methods to deteriorate significantly in the future. At some point it may be prudent to consider plowing the roads that experience the greatest snow losses.