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Wind is the most detrimental disturbance agent in Europe's forest ecosystems. In recent years, disturbance frequency and severity have been increasing at continental scale, a trend that is expected to continue under future anthropogenic climate change. Disturbance management is thus increasingly important for sustainable stewardship of forests, and requires tools to evaluate the effects of management alternatives and climatic changes on disturbance risk and ecosystem services. We here present a process-based model of wind disturbance impacts on forest ecosystems, integrated into the dynamic landscape simulation model iLand. The model operates at the level of individual trees and simulates wind disturbance events iteratively, i.e., dynamically accounting for changes in forest structure and newly created edges during the course of a storm. Both upwind gap size and local shelter from neighboring trees are considered in this regard, and critical wind speeds for uprooting and stem breakage are distinguished. The simulated disturbance size, pattern, and severity are thus emergent properties of the model. We evaluated the new simulation tool against satellite-derived data on the impact of the storm Gudrun (January 2005) on a 1391?ha forest landscape in south central Sweden. Both the overall damage percentage (observation: 21.7%, simulation: 21.4%) as well as the comparison of spatial damage patterns showed good correspondence between observations and predictions (prediction accuracy: 60.4%) if the full satellite-derived structural and spatial heterogeneity of the landscape was taken into account. Neglecting within-stand heterogeneity in forest conditions, i.e., the state-of-the-art in many stand-level risk models, resulted in a considerable underestimation of simulated damage, supporting the notion that tree-level complexity matters for assessing and modeling large-scale disturbances. A sensitivity analysis further showed that changes in wind speed and soil freezing could have potentially large impacts on disturbed area and patch size. The model presented here is available as open source. It can be used to study the effects of different silvicultural systems and future climates on wind risk, as well as to quantify the impacts of wind disturbance on ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration. It thus contributes to improving our capacity to address changing disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. We present a process-based model of wind disturbance impacts on forest landscapes.Stand structure is iteratively updated during a wind event.Disturbance size, pattern, and severity emerge dynamically from tree-level processes.We successfully evaluated the model against observations from the storm Gudrun.Neglecting structural and spatial heterogeneity resulted in underestimated damage.

Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures., published version, peerReviewed

We simulated how possible changes in wind and ground-frost climate and state of the forest due to changes in the future climate may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within one northern and one southern study area in Sweden, respectively. The topography of the study areas was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in the site productivity equal to a relative change in NPP, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of the site index in response to climate change using the model The Forest Time Machine. Global climate change scenarios based on two emission scenarios and one general circulation model were downscaled to the regional level. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the sensitivity of the forest to wind and the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands for the periods 2011–2041 and 2071–2100 and for a control period 1961–1990. This was done while taking into account effects on stability of the forest from expected changes in the occurrence of ground frost. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated for both study areas when adhering to recommended management rules of today. Adding also a changed wind climate further increased the probability of wind damage. Calculated probabilities of wind damage were generally higher in the southern study area than in the northern one and were explained by differences in wind climate and the state of the forests, for example with respect to tree species composition. The indicated increase in sensitivity of the forest to wind under the current management regime, and possibly increasing windiness, motivate further analysis of the effects of different management options on the probability of wind damage and what modifications of Swedish forest management are possibly warranted.

We estimated how the possible changes in wind climate and state of the forest due to climate change may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within a forest management unit located in Southern Sweden. The topography of the management unit was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). We incorporated a model relating the site index (SI) to the site productivity into the forest projection model FTM. Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in NPP equal to a relative change in the site productivity, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of SI in response to climate change. We estimated changes in NPP by combining the boreal-adapted BIOMASS model with four regional climate change scenarios calculated using the RCAO model for the period 2071–2100 and two control period scenarios for the period 1961–1990. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands in simulated future states of the forest. The climate change scenarios used represent non-extreme projections on a 100-year time scale in terms of global mean warming. A 15–40% increase in NPP was estimated to result from climate change until the period 2071–2100. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated when the management rules of today were applied. A greater proportion of the calculated change in probability of wind damage was due to changes in wind climate than to changes in the sensitivity of the forest to wind. While regional climate scenarios based on the HadAM3H general circulation model (GCM) indicated no change (SRES A2 emission scenario) or a slightly reduced (SRES B2 emission scenario) probability of wind damage, scenarios based on the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GCM indicated increased probability of wind damage. The assessment should, however, be reviewed as the simulation of forest growth under climate change as well as climate change scenarios are refined.

We (1) estimated how the possible changes in wind climate due to climatic change may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds (CWS) expected to cause significant wind damage within a forest management unit located in southern Sweden, (2) analysed how the probability of exceeding an approximate CWS as observed in the management unit would change in different regions in Sweden if expecting a similar kind of forested area to occur in different geographical locations. The topography of the management unit was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). Seven regions across Sweden were selected for comparison of possible future probability of damaging wind speed. The model-system WINDA was modified and used for calculations of the probability of wind damage together with regionally downscaled climate change scenario (CCS) data. In total, two climate scenarios downscaled using the RCAO model for the control period 1961–1990 and four for the period 2071–2100 were used. The CCSs represent fairly central projections on a 100-year time scale in terms of global mean warming. Although there is ambiguity between different CCSs, the results indicated that the present pattern of more windy conditions in southern than in northern Sweden will remain. For most sites the probability of exceeding the CWS from westerly to south-westerly directions was indicated to remain comparatively high and the probability of damaging wind from south-westerly to south-easterly directions was indicated to increase in many places. For southernmost Sweden increasing probability of exceeding the CWS from the north-westerly to south-easterly wind directions were indicated for all but one CCS. The results were discussed with respect to spatial planning in forestry under a changing wind climate.

An integrated system of models, WINDA, is presented for calculating the stand-wise probabilities of wind damage, uprooting and breakage of trees within a landscape. The calculations are made point-wise at exposed stand edges. WINDA integrates a modified version of the dose/response model HWIND [Can. J. For. Res. 29 (1999) 647], the airflow model WASP [Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WASP), Riso National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark], and a component for calculating the zero-plane displacement and surface roughness and uses a GIS for geographical computations. The likelihood of damage is calculated using extreme value theory. WINDA was able to predict damage that compared well with observed extensive damage within 6.7 km 2 large landscape in southern Sweden. Output from the system of models was most sensitive to modifications in the input variables tree height and diameter at breast height and to the internal parameter critical friction velocity. The mechanistic modelling approach makes WINDA useful for evaluating effects on the probability of wind damage of silvicultural treatments and forestry activities as well as of a changed climate.

A simple tool, TrackBeam, for rapid in situ estimates of potential exposure to the solar beam of objects underneath tree canopies is presented, tested and demonstrated to be useful in insect conservation studies. The tool can be used whenever accurate data on sun exposure is of use e.g., in ecological studies of saproxylic insects. TrackBeam draws upon the principles behind the analysis of hemispherical photographs but its use is much less dependent on the weather at the time of sampling. It may be used for detecting canopy openings in directions corresponding to the solar path. Based on this, periods of time with potential beam exposure and/or the proportion of sky that is not obscured by canopy for objects such as dead wood may be estimated. The results of using TrackBeam compares well between operators and with the corresponding results of analysed hemispherical photographs. Results are presented which show that TrackBeam was successfully used to characterise the habitat light requirements of the saproxylic beetle Melanotus castanipes (Coleoptera: Elateridae).

Low temperature during the growing season is known to be a leading cause of stress and damage to tree seedlings and interactive effects with high irradiance have been recognised as enhancing the damage. Spatial variation in low temperature and irradiance for mountainous terrain was, therefore, hypothesised to give rise to spatially variable potential for regeneration of tree seedlings and expansion of forest. Combined exposure to low temperature and high irradiance appears most likely on clear mornings following frosty nights. Geographic information system-based models of the spatial variation in minimum air temperature over clear-felled terrain and potentially intercepted direct radiation energy were constructed and were used together with measured values of minimum air temperature to explain observed spatial variation in mortality rates for planted tree seedlings in central Sweden. A local-scale multiple regression model explained 78% of the measured spatial variability in minimum air temperature over 625 km 2 and a corresponding, but univariate, microscale model explained 54% of the measured spatial variation in minimum air temperature over 4 ha. Multiple logistic regression models for the mortality rates of seedlings showed there was no significant effect of potentially intercepted amounts of direct radiation energy during the morning for either scale. There was, however, a significant effect (p

Effects of tall shelterwood and soil preparation on minimum air temperature over undulating terrain were modelled for clear and calm nights. A stepwise linear regression model describing the spatial variability of minimum air temperature at a height of 25 cm above grass-covered clear-cut areas accounted for 87% of the measured temperature variability. The explanatory variables parameterise drainage, ponding and stagnation of cold air and were retrieved from a digital elevation model in a GIS. There was no influence from the azimuth orientation of slopes on the minimum air temperature. A model for both shelterwood of three stem densities and clear-cut explained 89% of the spatial variation in minimum air temperature where variables related to sky view, topography and presence of scarified ground were used. Topographic influences increased in parallel with increasing sky view. Simple topography related measures within shelterwood were successfully used in the model where detailed topographic mapping was impeded by forest stands. For flat terrain, a maximum shelterwood effect of +4.6°C for a density of 275 stems/ha was estimated for nights with moderately strong radiative cooling. An effect of +1.6°C was estimated for scarification of clear-cut ground. Data sets collected separately for validation for each model compared well with estimated values.

Fluorescence characteristics and growth of seedling snow gum (Eucalyptus pauciflora Sieb. ex Spreng.) during autumn and winter were related to variation in radiation and temperature regime in a fragmented forest. Seedlings were planted in four treatments along transects perpendicular to tree island edges to characterize plant responses to microclimates ranging from those of cleared areas to those beneath forest canopies. Three-dimensional mapping of seedling leaf display, in combination with information retrieved from hemispherical photographs about shading from overstory canopies, were used to calculate the intercepted amounts of direct radiation energy for unit area of leaves on clear days (IDRE). IDRE was highest on the outside, most variable at the edges and lowest well inside the tree islands. Minimum temperature decreased with increasing view of the sky. Photoinhibition, measured as decrease in Fv/Fm, was correlated with spatial and seasonal differences in weekly minimum temperature and IDRE. Seedlings in the open and under the most canopy cover, with low variability in IDRE in a scale of weeks, exhibited less variability in photoinhibition than those growing along forest edges. Seedlings in the open tended to be most photoinhibited and grew the most. The combination of increased IDRE with reduced minimum temperatures resulted in persistent and strong photoinhibition as the season progressed. Results are discussed in relation to the potential for seedling establishment following forest fragmentation.

A stepwise linear regression model for local-scale temperature climates for clear and calm summer nights is presented for a heterogeneous and forested area in south Sweden. The spatial variations in measured air temperature 2 m above 5.5 km of roads were modelled from the following independent variables retrieved from a geographic information system (GIS): sky view factor, altitude, relative relief and presence of peat soils. The model explains 88% of the measured variations in air temperature and 87% of the variations in air temperature of a separate validation data set collected along 2.4 km of roads. Distributed model results for a 7.5-km 2 area generates a map with areas delineated that are prone to low temperature and frost after clear-cutting. The map gives useful information for efficient implementation of frost protection measures in forestry and is based on a simple methodology that can be applied in practical forestry.

Wind is the dominant agent of damage in forests in Western Europe. Traditional winddamage models calculate a probability for damage or a critical wind speed at which damage occurs. However, in a dynamic vegetation model actual damage to stands and individual trees is needed to get a dynamical progression of the vegetation. We present a prototype for a new approach to modelling forest wind damage at the regional scale, which we incorporate within a dynamic vegetation model. The approach is based on knowledge from both empirical and mechanical models and calculates the damaged fraction of a cohort based on wind load and a sensitivity that depends on the current physical state and history of the cohort in relation to the ecosystem. The modelling concept has been developed, calibrated and evaluated for Swedish conditions but can be applicable to other similar areas with minor modification. Because of the stochastic nature of local wind load and the difficulty of describing the stand-level exposure, the ability to explain observed damage at stand level was low. Regional level variation in damage, which more depends on the wind load, was however explained reasonably well (R2 = 0.43). We suggest that this is a useful concept for evaluating alternatives of forest management under different climate scenarios in the process of adaptation to future storm-damage risks.

Several hazards for forest production can be identified, such as damage caused by wind, frost, insects or pathogens. Modelling efforts of ours have been concentrated upon the risks of damages by wind and frost, landscape level models for which will be presented below. A landscape is defined as an area of anywhere from a few km2 to several tens of km2.

Strong winds cause severe damage worldwide to forested land every year. The devastating storms that struck large parts of Europe in late 1999 destroyed the equivalent of several years of normal forest harvesting, amounting to very large economical sums. Therefore, rapid mapping of damaged areas is of major importance for assessment of short-term actions as well as for long-term reforestation purposes. In this paper, the use of airborne CARABAS-II very high frequency (VHF) (20-90 MHz) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery for high spatial resolution mapping of wind-thrown forests has been investigated and evaluated. The investigation was performed at a test site located in southern Sweden and dominated by Norway spruce forests. A regression model estimating radar backscattering amplitude prior to the storm was developed. The estimated amplitudes were compared to measured amplitudes after the storm. The results clearly show that the backscattering amplitude, at a given stem volume, is considerably higher for wind-thrown forests than for unaffected forests. Furthermore, the backscattering from fully harvested storm-damaged areas was, as expected, significantly lower than from unaffected stands. These findings imply that VHF SAR imagery has potential for mapping wind-thrown forests. However, to prevent ambiguities in increased backscattering caused by normal stem volume growth or wind-fellings, multitemporal change detection techniques using VHF SAR images acquired prior to and after wind-fellings would be preferable.