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Land use change is an important driving force factor affecting the river water environment and directly affecting water quality. To analyze the impact of land use change on water quality change, this study first analyzed the land use change index of the study area. Then, the study area was divided into three subzones based on surface runoff. The relationship between the characteristics of land use change and the water quality grade was obtained by grey correlation analysis. The results showed that the land use types changed significantly in the study area since 2000, and water body and forest land were the two land types with the most significant changes. The transfer rate is cultivated field &gt, forest land &gt, construction land &gt, grassland &gt, unused land &gt, water body. The entropy value of land use information is represented as Area I &gt, Area III &gt, Area II. The shift range of gravity center is forest land &gt, water body &gt, cultivated field. There is a strong correlation between land use change index and water quality, which can be improved and managed by changing the land use type. It is necessary to establish ecological protection areas or functional areas in Area I, artificial lawns or plantations shall be built in the river around the water body to intercept pollutants from non-point source pollution in Area II, and scientific and rational farming in the lower reaches of rivers can reduce non-point source pollution caused by farming.

Plant phenology depends largely on temperature, but temperature alone cannot explain the Northern Hemisphere shifts in the start of the growing season (SOS). The spatio–temporal distribution of SOS sensitivity to climate variability has also changed in recent years. We applied the partial least squares regression (PLSR) method to construct a standardized SOS sensitivity evaluation index and analyzed the combined effects of air temperature (Tem), water balance (Wbi), radiation (Srad), and previous year’s phenology on SOS. The spatial and temporal distributions of SOS sensitivity to Northern Hemisphere climate change from 1982 to 2014 were analyzed using time windows of 33 and 15 years; the dominant biological and environmental drivers were also assessed. The results showed that the combined sensitivity of SOS to climate change (SCom) is most influenced by preseason temperature sensitivity. However, because of the asymmetric response of SOS to daytime/night temperature (Tmax/Tmin) and non-negligible moderating of Wbi and Srad on SOS, SCom was more effective in expressing the effect of climate change on SOS than any single climatic factor. Vegetation cover (or type) was the dominant factor influencing the spatial pattern of SOS sensitivity, followed by spring temperature (Tmin > Tmax), and the weakest was water balance. Forests had the highest SCom absolute values. A significant decrease in the sensitivity of some vegetation (22.2%) led to a decreasing trend in sensitivity in the Northern Hemisphere. Although temperature remains the main climatic factor driving temporal changes in SCom, the temperature effects were asymmetric between spring and winter (Tems/Temw). More moisture might mitigate the asymmetric response of SCom to spring/winter warming. Vegetation adaptation has a greater influence on the temporal variability of SOS sensitivity relative to each climatic factor (Tems, Temw, Wbi, Srad). More moisture might mitigate the asymmetric response of SCom to spring/winter warming. This study provides a basis for vegetation phenology sensitivity assessment and prediction.

Soil ecological risk caused by compound pollutants is a topic that deserves increasing attention, and soil risk early warning is a more in-depth discussion on this topic. In this study, we collected soil samples from Changchun, a typical industrial city, and determined the contents of 13 heavy metals (HMs) (0.00 mg kg−1-6380 mg kg−1), 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) (0.00 mg kg−1-27.7 mg kg−1), 7 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) (0.30 μg kg−1-168 μg kg−1), and 8 organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) (0.00 mg kg−1-4.52 mg kg−1). The soil ecological risks of compound pollutants were assessed. The results showed that PAHs were the greatest risk pollutants, followed by PCBs and HMs, and OCPs were the smallest risk pollutants. Most of the ecological risks of compound pollutants were classified as “moderate severity” level according to the (contamination severity index) CSI evaluation criteria. With the help of modern industrial economic theory, through the analysis of the annual accumulation of pollutants, it is possible to predict the future pollutant content in Changchun, and the soil risks could be forewarned. The results showed that if active measures were not taken to reduce the accumulation of PAHs in Changchun soil, the CSI-PAHs would be classified as “ultra-high severity” level in 2035.

Due to global warming, it is necessary to study the influence of extreme climate and concurrent events on crop growth. The study area was the Songliao Plain, where drought events frequently occur. First, the daily meteorological data of 14 meteorological stations from 1981 to 2016 were collected to analyze the temporal and spatial changes in the crop water surplus and deficit index, extreme growing degree-days, and heat stress intensity during different growth stages of maize. Second, the cloud model was used to describe the fuzziness of concurrent events (simultaneous drought and heat), and mutual mapping between qualitative and quantitative data was undertaken. The fuzzy certainty degree of the influence of different degrees of concurrent events on maize was calculated. Third, the copula function was used to describe the randomness of concurrent extreme events and calculate the joint probability distribution and return period. An assessment method was proposed for concurrent events from the perspective of system uncertainty. Finally, we analyzed the relationship between concurrent events and maize yield, which showed different degrees of water deficit and warming trends during each growth period. Crops were most affected by extreme weather during the reproductive growth period (RGP). During the vegetative growth period (VGP), the temperature increase was higher than in other periods, especially in the high-latitude region. The frequency of mild concurrent events was higher during the VGP and RGP. During the vegetative and reproductive period, the average occurrence probability of mild, moderate, and severe concurrent events was 21.9%, 1.7%, and 0.35%, respectively, whereas during the RGP, it was 23.1%, 8.2%, and 0.12%, respectively. The present study provides a meaningful reference for a better understanding of the occurrence laws of drought, heat, and concurrent events during crop growth periods and how to optimize the agricultural management of maize.

Precipitation is low and drought occurs frequently in Northern Shaanxi. To study the characteristics and occurrence and development of drought events in Northern Shaanxi is beneficial to the prevention and control of drought disasters. Based on the monthly rainfall data of 10 meteorological stations in Northern Shaanxi from 1960 to 2019, the characteristic variables of drought events at each meteorological station in Northern Shaanxi were extracted by using run theory and copula function. The joint probability distribution and recurrence period were obtained by combining the duration and intensity of drought, and the relationship between drought characteristics and crop drought affected area was studied. The results show that (1) from 1960 to 2019, drought events mainly occurred in Northern Shaanxi with long duration and low severity, short duration and high severity, or short duration and low severity, among which the frequency of drought events that occurred in Yuyang and Baota districts was higher. The frequency of light drought and extreme drought was more in the south and less in the north, while the frequency of moderate drought and severe drought was more in the north and less in the south. (2) The optimal edge distribution of drought intensity and drought duration in Northern Shaanxi is generalized Pareto distribution, and the optimal fitting function is Frank copula function. The greater the duration and intensity of drought, the greater the cumulative probability and return period. (3) The actual recurrence interval and the theoretical recurrence interval of drought events in Northern Shaanxi were close, and the error was only 0.1–0.3a. The results of the joint return period can accurately reflect the actual situation, and this study can provide effective guidance for the prevention and management of agricultural dryland in Northern Shaanxi.

Residents in industrial cities may be exposed to potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in soil that increase chronic disease risks. In this study, six types of PTEs (Zn, As, Cr, Ni, Cu, and Pb) in 112 surface soil samples from three land use types&mdash, industrial land, residential land, and farmland&mdash, in Tonghua City, Jilin Province were measured. The geological accumulation index and pollution load index were calculated to assess the pollution level of metal. Meanwhile, the potential ecological risk index, hazard index, and carcinogenic risk were calculated to assess the environmental risks. The spatial distribution map was determined by the ordinary kriging method, and the sources of PTEs were identified by factor analysis and cluster analysis. The average concentrations of Zn, As, Cr, Ni, Cu, and Pb were 266.57, 15.72, 72.41, 15.04, 20.52, and 16.30 mg/kg, respectively. The results of the geological accumulation index demonstrated the following: Zn pollution was present in all three land use types, As pollution in industrial land cannot be neglected, Cr pollution in farmland was higher than that in the other two land use types. The pollution load index decreased in the order of industrial land &gt, farmland &gt, residential land. Multivariate statistical analysis divided the six PTEs into three groups by source: Zn and As both originated from industrial activities, vehicle emissions were the main source of Pb, and Ni and Cu were derived from natural parent materials. Meanwhile, Cr was found to come from a mixture of artificial and natural sources. The soil environment in the study area faced ecological risk from moderate pollution levels mainly contributed by As. PTEs did not pose a non-carcinogenic risk to humans, however, residents of the three land use types all faced estimated carcinogenic risks caused by Cr, and As in industrial land also posed high estimated carcinogenic risk to human health. The conclusion of this article provides corresponding data support to the government's policy formulation of remediating different types of land and preventing exposure and related environmental risks.