Search

Purpose This paper aims to present the “Vulnerability Sourcebook” methodology, a standardised framework for the assessment of climate vulnerability and risk in the context of adaptation planning. The Vulnerability Sourcebook has been developed for the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) and has been applied in more than twenty countries worldwide. Design/methodology/approach It is based on a participative development of so-called climate impact chains, which are an analytical concept to better understand, systemise and prioritise the climate factors as well as environmental and socio-economic factors that drive climate related threats, vulnerabilities and risks in a specific system. Impact chains serve as the backbone for an operational climate vulnerability assessment with indicators based on quantitative approaches (data, models) combined with expert assessments. In this paper, the authors present the concept and applications of the original Vulnerability Sourcebook, published in 2015, which was based on the IPCC AR4 concept of climate vulnerability. In Section 6 of this paper, the authors report how this concept has been adapted to the current IPCC AR5 concept of climate risks. Findings The application of the Sourcebook is demonstrated in three case studies in Bolivia, Pakistan and Burundi. The results indicate that particularly the participative development of impact chains helped with generating a common picture on climate vulnerabilities and commitment for adaptation planning within a region. The mixed methods approach (considering quantitative and qualitative information) allows for a flexible application in different contexts. Challenges are mainly the availability of climate (change) and socio-economic data, as well as the transparency of value-based decisions in the process. Originality/value The Vulnerability Sourcebook offers a standardised framework for the assessment of climate vulnerability and risk in the context of adaptation planning.

Millions of people fall ill with malaria every year&mdash, most of them are located in sub-Saharan Africa. The weight of the burden of malaria on a society is determined by a complex interplay of environmental and social factors, including poverty, awareness and education, among others. A substantial share of the affected population is characterized by a general lack of anticipation and coping capacities, which renders them particularly vulnerable to the disease and its adverse side effects. This work aims at identifying interdependencies and feedback mechanisms in the malaria social vulnerability system and their variations in space by combining concepts, methods and tools from Climate Change Adaptation, Spatial Analysis, and Statistics and System Dynamics. The developed workflow is applied to a selected set of social, economic and biological vulnerability indicators covering five East-African Nations. As the study areas&rsquo, local conditions vary in a multitude of aspects, the social vulnerability system is assumed to vary accordingly throughout space. The study areas&rsquo, spatial entities were therefore aggregated into three system-regions using correlation-based clustering. Their respective correlation structures are displayed as Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs). While the three resulting CLDs do not necessarily display causal relations (as the set of social vulnerability indicators are likely linked through third variables and parts of the data are proxies), they give a good overview of the data, can be used as basis for discussions in participatory settings and can potentially enhance the understanding the malaria vulnerability system.

Maps synthesizing climate, biophysical and socioeconomic data have become part ofthe standard tool-kit for communicating the risks of climate change to society. Vulnerability maps are used to direct attention to geographic areas where impacts on society are expected to be greatest and that may therefore require adaptation interventions. Under the Green Climate Fund and other bilateral climate adaptation funding mechanisms, donors are investing billions of dollars of adaptation funds, often with guidance from modeling results, visualized and communicated through maps and spatial decision sup- port tools. This paper presents the results of a systematic review of 84 studies that map social vulnerability to climate impacts. These assessments are compiled by interdisciplin- ary teams ofresearchers, span many regions, range in scale from local to global, and vary in terms of frameworks, data, methods, and thematic foci. The goal is to identify com- mon approaches to mapping, evaluate their strengths and limitations, and offer recom- mendations and future directions for the field. The systematic review finds some convergence around common frameworks developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, frequent use of linear index aggregation, and common approaches to the selection and use of climate and socioeconomic data. Further, it identifies limitations such as a lack of future climate and socioeconomic projections in many studies, insuffi- cient characterization of uncertainty, challenges in map validation, and insufficient engagement with policy audiences for those studies that purport to be policy relevant. Finally, it provides recommendations for addressing the identified shortcomings.

The European (EC FP7-funded) HEALTHY FUTURES project aims at improving anticipation of climate change effects on three water related vector-borne diseases (malaria, schistosomiasis, and Rift Valley fever) in eastern Africa. The intention of the HEALTHY FUTURES Atlas is to present key project results, and to support decision makers in identifying context and place-specific interventions. The Atlas provides information on past, present, and future conditions of risk and its components (hazard, vulnerability) to the three diseases, and allows the exploration of results through interactive tools.

Despite recent progress in reducing the number of casualties, landmines and explosive remnants of war (ERW) cause more than 3,000 causalities every year, particularly affecting the most vulnerable. Current mine action programmes, however, do not consider prevailing vulnerabilities of affected communities in their priority-setting systems. We emphasize the need to consider social vulnerability in the workflow of mine action, and pply a spatially explicit approach for its assessment at a sub-national scale in Cambodia, one of the world's most heavily affected countries. Drawing on available literature and focus group discussions with domain experts, 16 socioeconomic, demographic and distance-related vulnerability indicators were identified. The Analytical Hierarchy Process was used to obtain indicator weights, revealing that using firewood for cooking, distance to hospitals and health centres, occupation in the primary sector, poverty, conflict density, illiteracy and living in a rural area are key factors shaping social vulnerability in the context of landmines and ERW. Results were visualized using both 2x2 km2 grids and sub-district administrative units, a resolution often used by the Cambodian Mine Action and Victim Assistance Authority (CMAA). The results show that social vulnerability is very heterogeneous across the study area (Battambang province) varying contributions of the underlying indicators. Significant hot spots were identified in the central, north-western, north-eastern, and southern parts of the province. The presented approach provides the means not only to assess but also monitor progress of reconstruction measures to strengthen the resilience of communities exposed to post-conflict impacts such as landmines., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

International audience; Mauritania is vulnerable to climate change due to its location along the Sahel, the desert climate of the Sahara, and its socioeconomic characteristics. To support the identification of climate change adaptation measures in Brakna and Assaba in Mauritania, a spatial assessment of vulnerability to climate change targeting the livelihood sectors of agriculture and pastoralism was carried out. Based on the identification of relevant drivers of climate change vulnerability in a broad consultation process among national and local stakeholders, a variety of geospatial indicators were identified and integrated in the assessments based on a standardized vulnerability assessment approach. In this paper, we provide a reflection on the methodology applied and identify lessons to be learnt on data quality, spatial scales, aggregation and visualizations. The primary conclusion is that users of the assessment results and stakeholders need to be engaged in the entire assessment process in order to reflect local characteristics more fully, and to ensure that the results are reflected in informed decision-making.

This work illustrates the findings of a participatory research process aimed at identifying responses for sustainable water management in a climate change perspective, in two river basins in Europe and Asia. The chapter describes the methodology implemented through local participatory workshops, aimed at eliciting and evaluating possible responses to flood risk, which were then assessed with respect to the existing governance framework. Socio-economic vulnerability was also investigated developing an indicator, whose future trend was analysed with reference to IPCC scenarios. The main outcome of such activities consists in the identification of Integrated Water Resource Management Strategies (IWRMS) based upon the issues and preferences elicited from local experts. The mDSS decision support tool was used to facilitate transparent and robust management of the information collected and communication of the outputs.

The Human Dimension of the Twinning European and South Asian River Basins to Enhance Capacity and Implement Adaptive Management Approaches Project (EC-Project BRAHMATWINN) is aimed at developing socio-economic tools and context for the effective inclusion of the "Human Dimension" or socio-economic vulnerability into the overall assessment of climate risk in the twinned basins of the Upper Brahmaputra River Basin (UBRB), and the Upper Danube River Basin (UDRB) . This work is conducted in the light of stakeholder/actor analysis and the prevailing legal framework. In order to effectively achieve this end, four key research and associated activities were defined: 1. Identifying stakeholders and actors including: implement an approach to ensure a broad spread of appropriate stakeholder input to the assessment of vulnerability undertaken in Asia and Europe within the research activities of the project. 2. Contextualising legal framework: to provide an assessment of the governance framework relating to socio-environmental policy development within the study site administrative areas leading to the specific identification of related policy and legal recommendations. 3. Spatial analysis and mapping of vulnerability: providing a spatial assessment of the variation of vulnerability to pre-determined environmental stressors across the study areas with an additional specific focus on gender. 4. Inclusion of findings with the broader context of the BRAHMATWINN risk of climate change study through scenarios of hazard and vulnerability (subsequent chapters). This study utilises stakeholder inputs to effectively identify and map relative weightings of vulnerability domains, such as health and education in the context of pre-specified hazards such as flood. The process is underpinned by an adaptation of the IPCC (2001) which characterizes Risk as having the components of Hazard (physiographic component) and Vulnerability (socio-economic component).

This chapter focuses on the needs and opportunities as well as the constraints and barriers with respect to mitigation and adaptation to climate change. While the chapter concentrates mainly on Austria, information is provided on the global and EU level to the extent they are relevant for Austria. Section 1.1 discusses the targets already specified for mitigation at the global level, as well as technologies that are already available or are emerging with the potential to meet the challenges and associated costs. In particular, the progress achieved by IPCC and UNFCCC bodies, as well as EU policies and national scale policies and measures are reviewed. Section 1.2, on adaptation to climate change, addresses the different concepts developed at the international scale, reviews progress on the EU and Austrian national adaptation strategy, and characterizes the different types of adaptation relevant over short, medium and long term timescales. The costs of inaction are also addressed. Again, progress achieved by IPCC and UNFCCC bodies, as well as EU policies (green and white papers, etc.) and national scale policies and measures (national adaptation strategy) will be reviewed. This includes the progress made on adaptation planning, implementation, and integration in vulnerable sectors. Section 1.3 highlights the synergies and trade-offs that may emerge among adaptation and mitigation and hence explains the importance of a holistic approach. This also includes a discussion of mainstreaming of mitigation and adaptation into other policy areas. Section 1.4 identifies the barriers for mitigation and adaptation, including obstacles at the individual, social, political and economic levels. Moreover, barriers of insufficient knowledge and uncertainties are addressed. Finally, approaches for overcoming these barriers are summarized and needs for future research are highlighted.

The Salzach case study in Austria applied the MOVE risk and vulnerability framework in the context of flood hazards at the catchment scale level for the social, economic and environmental dimensions. The Salzach catchment is very heterogeneous and characterized through its alpine upstream area and highly dynamic river valleys with the city of Salzburg in the downstream area. Recent severe floods have occurred in 2002, 2005 and 2013 affecting large parts of the river catchment. The methodology applied aims to identify spatial-explicit homogenous regions of vulnerability for the different target dimensions. This builds on approaches such as multi-criteria assessment and the identification of expert weights for the various indicators and goes one step further by including novel methods of regionalization linked to the concept of ‘integrated geons’. The results allow the identification of spatially-explicit regions with different levels of vulnerability (‘hot spots’) independent from administrative boundaries. Furthermore, the results provide decision makers with place-specific options for targeting disaster risk reduction interventions that aim to reduce vulnerability and ultimately the risk of impacts from floods.

Detailed maps, appropriate for decision making at the local level are outdated or currently not available in Mozambique. The community map presented in this paper is built on participatory mapping and Participatory GIS practices (especially photo mapping) and links to advanced spatial analysis in the context of disaster risk reduction and flood hazard assessment. Based on a very high-resolution satellite imagery, community members mapped different features such as the community boundary, settlement areas and their names, agricultural areas, important infrastructure and most importantly ‘low’ and ‘high risk’ zones for floods. It has been for the first time that a community was mapped in Mozambique in such a way integrating local knowledge. The identification of hazard zones in a participatory manner was seen as one way to overcome the bottleneck of limited available data for a proper GIS-based hazard modeling. Next to the digitization of the community mapped features, an image classification on land use, settlement areas (houses), and the integration of GPS collected points (infrastructure, photos) was carried out. In a final step the map was printed and handed-over to the community members. In the applied methodology it has been demonstrated that the assessment of risks through the integration of community knowledge and paper-based satellite images is valid. Next to the result of deriving a community-based hazard map, the process of mapping is understood as essential to sensitize and learn about local flood hazard risk.

Reducing risk that emerges from hazards of natural origin and societal vulnerability is a key challenge for the development of more resilient communities and the overall goal of sustainable development. The following chapter outlines a framework for multidimensional, holistic vulnerability assessment that is understood as part of risk evaluation and risk management in the context of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA). As a heuristic, the framework is a thinking tool to guide systematic assessments of vulnerability and to provide a basis for comparative indicators and criteria development to assess key factors and various dimensions of vulnerability, particularly in regions in Europe, however, it can also be applied in other world regions. The framework has been developed within the context of the research project MOVE (Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe; ) sponsored by the European Commission within the framework of the FP 7 program.

WebGIS tools have the potential to disseminate the outputs of spatial vulnerability assessments to a wide range of communities, including public health decision-makers. Based on a previous assessment of socioeconomic vulnerability to dengue fever in Cali, Colombia, we developed and used a WebGIS tool to facilitate the visualization, exploration and dissemination of prevailing vulnerabilities to dengue fever in an interactive online environment. Results show that the tool presented here has distinct implications for policy and decision-making as it facilitates spatial prioritisation, both with respect to the intervention areas and the intervention measures needed to reduce human susceptibility and strengthen resilience to the disease.

Background Despite efforts in eradication and control, malaria remains a global challenge, particularly affecting vulnerable groups. Despite the recession in malaria cases, previously malaria free areas are increasingly confronted with epidemics as a result of changing environmental and socioeconomic conditions. Next to modeling transmission intensities and probabilities, integrated spatial methods targeting the complex interplay of factors that contribute to social vulnerability are required to effectively reduce malaria burden. We propose an integrative method for mapping relative levels of social vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner to support the identification of intervention measures. Methods Based on a literature review, a holistic risk and vulnerability framework has been developed to guide the assessment of social vulnerability to water-related vector-borne diseases (VBDs) in the context of changing environmental and societal conditions. Building on the framework, this paper applies spatially explicit modeling for delineating homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria in eastern Africa, while taking into account expert knowledge for weighting the single vulnerability indicators. To assess the influence of the selected indicators on the final index a local sensitivity analysis is carried out. Results Results indicate that high levels of malaria vulnerability are concentrated in the highlands, where immunity within the population is currently low. Additionally, regions with a lack of access to education and health services aggravate vulnerability. Lower values can be found in regions with relatively low poverty, low population pressure, low conflict density and reduced contributions from the biological susceptibility domain. Overall, the factors characterizing vulnerability vary spatially in the region. The vulnerability index reveals a high level of robustness in regard to the final choice of input datasets, with the exception of the immunity indicator which has a marked impact on the composite vulnerability index. Conclusions We introduce a conceptual framework for modeling risk and vulnerability to VBDs. Drawing on the framework we modeled social vulnerability to malaria in the context of global change using a spatially explicit approach. The results provide decision makers with place-specific options for targeting interventions that aim at reducing the burden of the disease amongst the different vulnerable population groups.