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The curtailment and storage associated with the fluctuation of electricity supplied by variable renewable energy (VRE) may limit its penetration into electricity systems. Therefore, these factors need to be explicitly treated in the integrated assessment models (IAMs). This study improves the representation of curtailment and storage of VRE in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. With the data generated from an hourly power sector model, curtailment and storage of VRE electricity are treated as a function of the shares of solar and wind in the electricity mix. This relationship is incorporated into a CGE model and we also updated the VRE costs and resource potential. The results show that with such improvement, by 2100, in a 450 ppm atmospheric CO 2 equivalent concentration (henceforth ppm) scenario, some electricity generated from VRE is either curtailed (2.1%) or needs to be stored (2.9%). In contrast, if VRE fluctuation is not considered, the long-term global economic cost of carbon mitigation is significantly underestimated (by 52%) in the same scenario. Conversely, updating the VRE costs and resource potential leads to a decrease in mitigation costs. Our simulation implies that the fluctuation of VRE cannot be ignored and needs to be incorporated into CGE models. Moreover, in addition to storage with batteries, many other options are available to reduce curtailment of VRE. The top-down type CGE model has limitations to fully incorporate all aspects due to its limited spatial, temporal, and technological resolution.

The formulation of a policy for a low-carbon development plan is one of the most important steps to help Cambodia achieve sustainable development objectives, promote a greener development path, and contribute to the global effort to reducing CO 2 emissions. This study is designed to propose some low-carbon energy strategies and quantitatively to assess CO 2 emissions and reductions. The Extended Snapshot (ExSS) tool is used to quantify socioeconomic assumptions and to estimate CO 2 emissions and reduction potentials. The results show that CO 2 emissions are projected to increase to about 23,277 (by about 5.5 times) and 91,325 ktCO 2 /year (by about 21.6 times) in 2030BaU and 2050BaU, respectively, from 4,221 ktCO 2 /year in 2010. This study proposes five strategies for low-carbon development plan towards 2050 which are expected to reduce CO 2 emissions by about 12,826 (about 55%) and 52,153 ktCO 2 /year (about 57%) in 2030CM and 2050CM, respectively. The present results should help researchers and experts gain a better understanding of CO 2 emissions and reduction potentials by applying a number of low-carbon measures in Cambodia. While the results should be counted as a preliminary study because of limited available country information, they are expected to provide useful insights for the government in formulating a concrete climate change mitigation policy for the country.

The increasing volumes of industrial solid wastes (ISW) generated have become a serious issue in Shanghai, China. Knowing the volume of ISW that is to be generated in the future is considered a prerequisite for an effective reduction policy and the successful design of treatment facilities. It has been verified that the prediction of ISW generation has an inherent relationship with industrial restructuring caused by economic growth. This study contributes its efforts to develop a systematic approach involving a regional input–output analysis for the forecasting of ISW generation, taking into account the probable industrial restructuring developments. In the process, changes in the consumption patterns, export structure, and technical change are considered to be the important drivers. Further, a sensitivity analysis is carried out as well to investigate the influence of change in consumption on ISW generation. The case study of Shanghai provides for a feasible application of our model on a regional level until the year 2020.

During 1990–2010, the power generation sector has been the highest energy consuming and CO2 emitting sector while the residential and building sectors have been the largest electricity consuming sector, accounted for about 57.1% of overall electricity consumption in Thailand. This study employed AIM/Enduse model to investigate the CO2 reduction measures which are related to the marginal abatement cost (MAC) in the long term planning. Seven mitigation measures by replacing existing energy devices with more efficient ones based on the data currently available on the market are implemented: (1) efficient lighting devices, (2) efficient cooling devices, (3) efficient heating devices, (4) efficient other electrical devices, (5) efficient cooking devices, (6) Insulated houses, and (7) building codes. Results indicate that in the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario between 2010 and 2050, the energy demand and CO2 emissions would increase to 39,140 ktoe and 52,047 kt-CO2, respectively. By adopting these policy strategies, energy demand can be reduced by about 42.7% of total energy demand in 2050 while CO2 emissions can be mitigated by 35.0% of overall CO2 emissions in 2050. The efficient cooling devices will contribute to the largest CO2 reduction in 2050 with low MAC when compared to other measures.

Recently, Low Carbon Society (LCS) principle has emerged as a practicable campaign for both developing and developed countries to deal with the dramatic increment of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. Various key features of LCS entail reducing energy demand and consumption while avoiding the fossil fuel utilization which is a major contributor to substantial CO 2 emissions. In this study, Thailand's power sector is modeled using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM/Enduse). The objective of this study is to model the Thai power sector such that the viability of clean generating technologies for Thailand is considered and their mitigating effects are analyzed. The results demonstrate that the fossil fuel based technology would be replaced by clean technologies including, coal-fired power plant with CCS technology and renewable energies in the LCS scenario. The LCS scenario can mitigate CO 2 emissions by 58,098 ktCO 2 in 2050 when compared to BAU scenario.

In order to realize a low-carbon society (LCS), it is necessary to formulate a comprehensive policy consisting of a large number of “options” (i.e., policies as well as technical and behavioral measures). Based on the concept of backcasting, this paper proposes a methodology and a model, called the backcasting model (BCM), that organizes a system of various LCS options and projects their detailed schedule toward a given target year. The methodology and model mainly focus on describing a complex system of LCS options and the consistency of their schedule. Other aspects such as the costs of LCS measures, stock dynamics of technologies, and effects of economic instruments are not explicitly considered. To permit quantitative treatment of various types of options, they are classified into several categories. The BCM calculates the schedule of the options under given quantitative information on the options and relationships between them. The methodology and model were applied to Kyoto City as an example. First, a quantitative snapshot of socioeconomic status and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions was described. In the snapshot, a 45% reduction of GHG emissions compared with 1990 was achieved with moderate economic growth. The BCM was applied to about 130 options shown in an action plan of the Kyoto Municipal Government, and a schedule of the options was calculated. This methodology treats wide-ranging and complex low-carbon options in a quantitative and consistent manner and supports the policymaking process toward the realization of a low-carbon society.

The energy balances published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) are one of the most valuable sources of energy statistics covering world energy supply and demand. However, some issues arise when these data are analyzed or used directly. Even when industrial energy consumption alone is examined, at least three types of issues are encountered: missing data, large amounts of misallocated data in some countries, and numerous unrealistic outliers in the time-series variations. When we deal with only a few regions, we can look at data one by one and modify them. In this case, we are going to overcome these issues with a systematic method because the data covers world including more than a hundred regions. This paper proposes a data reconciliation method to treat these issues, and describes its application to world industrial energy consumption. As a result of its application, we found that the three issues mentioned above seemed to be overcome. The degree of the reconciliation by region showed that OECD countries' degree tends to be smaller than those of non-OECD countries. However, not all of the OECD countries have low values and some countries, such as the United States, have high values.

The unsustainable consumption pattern is argued as a driving factor of the environmental loads; however, hardly any relevant quantitative results are available. Quantifying the consumer behavior is particularly required for facilitating the contemporary unsustainable consumption pattern. This paper aims at developing two types of the consumer behavior model, comprising of the linear expenditure system (LES) model and the multinomial logit (MNL) model, to analyze the individual’s consumption expenditure hierarchically in light of the changes in lifestyle. The models are validated for the case of Taiwan where the economy is growing rapidly and making dents on every phase of life. Analysis results present the structure of an individual’s consumption preferences during the study period. Mainly, the individual’s consumption expenditures on “food” and “housing” occupy the most portions in his/her subsistence level while the individual spends more on “housing,” “medicines & medical care” and “amusement & education” in his/her non-subsistence level. In addition, the consumer behavior model is coupled with the municipal solid waste (MSW) discard model, which was established in the authors’ earlier study, to consecutively estimate an individual’s consumption expenditure and the amount of his/her MSW discards by waste fraction. By using the coupled model, a more sustainable consumption pattern and lifestyle can be proposed, and the corresponding MSW management system can be planned so as to develop the sustainable lifestyle and a low-waste-discard society.

This paper presents a quantitative methodology and an empirical case study in Taiwan on modelling municipal solid waste (MSW) discards based on the consumption and MSW policy effects through a simultaneous equation system (SES) model. The results indicate that per capita consumption expenditures on ‘food’, ‘household appliances’ and ‘amusement & education’ are associated with the changes of the discards of most of the waste streams in Taiwan from 1992 to 2004. The developed model, meanwhile, identifies the effects of several important MSW policy measures. With regard to the model implication, consumers could try to reduce their unnecessary consumption, producers may rethink their responsibility on reducing MSW discards, and municipalities could evaluate the effectiveness of the existing policy measures to improve it upon based on the quantitative analysis. The backcasts and estimates of the discards of MSW streams could enable the planning, designing and executing of MSW system. The findings of this study would facilitate the consumer behaviour and support the policy design towards a low-waste-discard society.

This study analyzes the role of energy intensity improvement in the short term (to the year 2020) and midterm (to the year 2050) in the context of long-term greenhouse gases (GHG) stabilization scenarios. The data come from the latest Emissions Scenarios Database and were reviewed in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In this study, quantitative decomposition analyses using the extended Kaya identity are applied to the stabilization scenarios in Categories I to IV of Table SPM.5 in the AR4. Furthermore, quantitative decomposition analyses of Category IV scenarios are conducted for major GHG-emitting countries, such as the USA, Western Europe, China, and India, by utilizing the large number of reports in the database. This study provides in-depth analyses of the relationship between energy intensity improvement and other major indicators. One finding is that energy intensity improvement plays an important role in the short term, and the rate of energy intensity improvement is assumed to be around 2% per year as a median value across Categories I–III in the midterm on the global scale. However, achieving stringent stabilization levels requires various other measures regarding the use of less-carbon intensive fossil fuels, the shift to non-fossil fuel energies, and advanced technologies such as carbon capture and storage.

Japan’s long-term CO2 emission reduction scenarios are assessed with a computable general equilibrium model with recursive dynamics, which was modified in order to assess the effects of renewable energy supply. The period of assessment is from 2000 to 2050 and the increase of gross domestic product per capita was assumed to be 2% per year. The following scenarios in which the level of CO2 emissions in 2050 will be 30% of the level in 1990 or less are proposed: (1) if the renewable energy supply in 2050 is less than the actual potential, an energy intensity improvement of 2.6% per year will bring about a CO2 emission level of 81 MtC in 2050; (2) if the electricity from renewable energy in 2050 can be supplied to the physical potential, and instead of solar heat, 50% more biomass energy can be supplied than the physical potential, the CO2 emission level in 2050 will be 86MtC by achieving a 2.0% per year energy intensity improvement. When the above two scenarios are appropriately combined, the CO2 emission level in 2050 becomes 66MtC. In addition to energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy supply, changes in economic activity such as lower material input and higher labor productivity are also important to achieve the above target.

Recently, Information Technology (IT) has spread quickly in Japan. In this study, we developed a model to estimate the influence of IT on industrial economy and to estimate the related environmental load. This model consists of two modules, input-output analysis module and energy conversion module. The former module estimates multiplied effects of adoption of IT on industry economy, and the latter module calculates CO2 emission by using the relationship between the emission and industrial production. An IT spreading scenario including evolution of broadband network, electronic commerce (BtoB and BtoC), and telework was considered. As a result of our estimation, demand for power sector increased, and CO2 emitted from oil products decreased due to reduction of transportation. Total CO2 emission increased because of large amounts of demands for the power sector.

本論文では, ライフスタイルの変化が環境に及ぼす影響を定量的に評価するモデルを開発した. すなわち, 家計による財・サービス購入行動とそれらの消費に伴う環境負荷発生量を, 家計収支, 物質収支, エネルギー収支, 時間収支の観点に立ち, 関連付けるモデルを開発した. このモデルは, 財・サービス選好モデルと, 物質・エネルギー収支モデルからなる. 財・サービス選好モデルでは, 家計の財・サービス別の消費支出を推計し, 物質・エネルギー収支モデルでは, 推計された家計消費支出から環境負荷発生量を推計する. 本研究では, 2030年までの家計消費支出と, 家計生産活動に伴う環境負荷発生量を推計した, 対象とした環境負荷は, 家庭ごみ, 粗大ごみ, 排水発生量, エネルギー消費量, 水質汚濁物質, 大気汚染物質, 住宅建設廃棄物である.

循環型社会を構築する上で, 食品廃棄物の飼料化・堆肥化・メタン発酵などを行う再資源化部門は人々の社会経済活動に大きな役割を果たす.したがって, 循環形成の効果を評価する際には再資源化部門以外の部門を含めた広い視野で評価しなければならない.加えて現在は過型から循環型社会への移行の過渡期であり, 循環型社会を構築するにはシステム系外からの影響に柔軟に対応できることや再生品の需給バランスを考慮することが必要条件となる.本研究では産業廃棄物の動植物性残渣と事業系一般廃棄物の厨芥類に注目し, 経済社会内の各部門の需給バランスの取り扱いが容易な応用一般均衡モデルを用いて, 各種対策 (再資源化部門への補助金・廃棄物委託処理価格の値上げ・バージン財への課徴金) や環境制約 (最終処分量と二酸化炭素排出量) が食品廃棄物の循環形成に与える影響について評価を行った.

In order to respond to climate change, it is essential to describe possible future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trajectories in both nonintervention and intervention terms. This paper analyzes long-term GHG mitigation emission scenarios according to alternative development paths in the world and major regions, based on the nonintervention emission scenarios quantified by the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). AIM is revised and applied to the quantification of narrative storylines for scenarios of socioeconomic development, and GHG emissions from energy use, land-use change, and industrial production processes are simulated. A wide range of mitigation policies are adopted in this simulation as responses to the climate change. Several target stabilized levels—650, 550 and 450ppmv—are analyzed. The results show that to achieve stabilization at a different GHG concentration level, a policy package is essential to reach the target concentration level, rather than a single policy. Energy efficiency improvement will be a key contributor to the reduction of GHG emissions as a result of the policy package. The mitigation cost could be at a medium level, without a large loss of economic growth. The developing world could significantly reduce GHG emissions compared with nonmitigation scenarios with sufficient knowledge transfer from developed countries.

本研究では、経済活動に伴って発生する環境負荷を取り込んだ応用一般均衡モデルを用いて、環境負荷を削減するという環境制約が経済活動に及ぼす影響と、そうした環境制約を緩和させる政策の効果を定量的に評価する。ここで対象とした環境制約は、京都議定書で同意した二酸化炭素排出量の削減 (2010年頃までに排出量を1990年比で6%削減する) と、1999年に日本政府が目標値として表明した廃棄物最終処分量の削減 (2010年度までに最終処分量を1996年度比で半減する) の2つである。これらの制約により、2010年のGDPは制約がない場合と比較して2.7%減少する。本研究で対象とした環境政策は、1) 古紙の需要を高める、2) 低公害車の普及を図る、3) 廃棄物処理に対する投資を高める、の3つである。これらの政策は、対象となっている環境負荷の削減を通じて環境制約を緩和させるとともに、関連する産業の生産活動を高めることから、全体的なGDPの回復に寄与する。その一方で、例えば低公害車の普及により2010年の二酸化炭素排出費用 (: 排出目標を達成するために課せられた炭素税の費用に相当) は11.9%削減するが、廃棄物最終処分費用は0.7%増大するなど、環境政策が産業連関を通じて別の環境に影響を及ぼす可能性があることを明らかにした。

The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) has been developed for predicting greenhouse gas emissions and evaluating policy measures to reduce them. Two socioeconomic scenarios were assumed and CO 2 emissions were predicted based on these scenarios and policy intervention assumptions. It is found that mitigating CO 2 emissions by 6% to the 1990 level is possible without scaling back productive activities or living standards in Japan. However, this cannot be achieved by relying on the market mechanism alone. Our analysis shows that it is indispensable to introduce new policies and measures such as a carbon tax and subsidies.

This study has two main sections. First, we will review future global emission scenarios. This shows that the carbon intensity of fuels is a very important factor in determining CO2 emission rates. Second, we will show the relationship between the introduction of nuclear energy and other energy types to supply future energy demands. This will be discussed by referring to the analysis of global warming abatement policies and energy conservation policies conducted using the computer simulation model that we developed.

In supporting research on the socio-economic implication of energy policy, future scenarios are needed. Currently, most of the developing countries, especially in Southeast Asia, do not have specific targets for energy development rather than putting their main focus on economic growth. However, under natural constraints, especially energy resources, these countries must develop their own pathways in order to achieve socio-economic targets without compromising the environment and scarce natural resources. This paper provides the methodology to develop the platform of socio-economic and energy scenarios that includes two main steps. Firstly, the controversial parameters such as GDP and population are developed to be scale indices. Lately, the scale-based linear complement uses these scale indices to estimate the full-trend scenario for other parameters. The GAMS (General Algebraic Modelling System) programming is used in the processes of scale index development and scenario complement. This study provides the social, economic, and energy platform for researchers and policy-makers in analyzing the implication of socio-economic development to energy consumption as well as the possible CO2 emissions, towards achieving sustainable development. Similarly to Vietnam, other developing countries may also face the lack of an energy database problem. Therefore, this study can be improved and expanded to those countries, especially in the Asian Pacific region.

The model for assessing the future environmental loads based on the past socio-economic trends has been developed. By using this model, the environmental trends until 2032 in the Asia-Pacific 42 countries have been estimated. This AIM/Trend model has characteristics of econometric model and communication tool to enhance discussions and search for countermeasures by envisaging environmental conditions in a consistent way. Results of AIM/Trend model show that Asia-Pacific countries have a wide range of economy, energy, and environment conditions. It makes the country-level study in this region more important to deal with the diversity of Asia-Pacific countries.

The AIM/Enduse model has been frequently applied to Japanese policy making processes. This chapter illustrates three of these applications. First, the effects of carbon tax and subsidies to reduce CO2 emissions in Japan are introduced. CO2 emissions through 2010 are estimated for four cases: reference case, market case, carbon tax case, and carbon tax+subsidies case. It is shown that the subsidy scheme is a useful option to reduce CO2 emissions. Second, ancillary benefits of CO2 reduction for regional environmental quality are presented. A module to analyze ancillary benefits of CO2 reduction is added to the original AIM/Enduse model. Emissions of CO2, NOx and PM in Aichi prefecture, Japan, are estimated through 2010 and it is shown that countermeasures to reduce CO2 emissions can also reduce air pollutants. Third, CO2 emission scenarios in Japan are quantified based on the four narrative scenarios for Japanese society and economy by referring to IPCC SRES scenarios.

AIM/Enduse is a technology selection framework for analysis of country-level policies related to greenhouse gas emissions mitigation and local air pollution control. It can also assist in energy policy analysis. It simulates flows of energy and materials in an economy, from supply of primary energy and materials, through conversion and supply of secondary energy and materials, to satisfaction of enduse services. AIMlEnduse models these flows of energy and materials through detailed representation oftechnologies.

In order to respond to climate change, it is essential to describe possible future trajectories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in terms of both nonintervention and intervention strategies. This chapter analyzes long-term GHG emissions scenarios according to alternative development paths for the world and major regions, based on the nonintervention emissions scenarios quantified by the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). AIM has been revised and applied to the quantification of story lines for scenarios of socioeconomic development, and GHG emissions from energy use, land use changes, and industrial production processes are simulated. A wide range of mitigation policies have been adopted as responses to climate change. The results show that to achieve stabilization at a different GHG concentration level, it is essential to have a policy package to reach the target concentration level, rather than a single policy. Energy efficiency improvements and renewable energy introduction make a key contribution to the reduction of GHG emissions as a result of such a policy package. The mitigation costs could be small without a significant reduction in economic growth. The developing world could substantially reduce GHG emissions compared with nonintervention scenarios with sufficient knowledge transfer from the developed countries.

業務部門（第三次産業）におけるエネルギー消費構造を把握することは挑戦的な課題の一つである．業務部門は, 業種によってエネルギー消費構造（エネルギー種・用途）が異なる特徴をもつため，エネルギー種や用途だけでなく業種も考慮してエネルギー消費構造を把握することが, 地球温暖化問題やエネルギー問題を克服するために重要となる. 本研究では，エネルギー需要の発生と消費構造を考慮して，限られた情報からエネルギー消費量を把握する手法を開発した．そして本手法を世界35地域に適用し，2005年の業務部門におけるエネルギーサービスの需給構造を明らかにした．

本研究では地方自体において長期的な低炭素社会へのロードマップ(行程表)を構築する手法を開発する．行程表を推計するためのツールとして施策の実施主体の費用負担を考慮して施策実施スケジュールを推計するバックキャスティングツール(BCT)を開発する．これを滋賀県に適用しておよそ240の施策からなる行程表を構築した．滋賀県はすでに2030年の低炭素目標及びその時点で導入されているべき施策を策定しており，本研究ではそれらの施策を2030年までに全て実施するための行程表を2010年から2030年の期間で推計した．その結果，期間全体で必要とされる累積費用は7.3兆円となり，そのうち約17%が公的部門の費用となった．累積排出削減量は101MtCO2で平均削減費用は7.3万円/ｔCO2となった．これらの費用をどのようにして調達するか，また，国，県，市町のそれぞれがどれだけを負担するか，といった議論が必要であると考えられる．

Although several central and local governments around the world have set long term low-carbon targets, they do not always have concrete plans toward the goals. In order to reduce greenhouse gas(GHG) emission significantly, various kinds of measures in various sectors will be required. Some measures reduce GHG emissions directly and are called “direct measures” in this study. To implement those direct measures by the target year, indirect measures are also required, such as economic incentives, regulations, and urban planning. This study proposes a method to develop a concrete long-term schedule of direct and indirect measures, a “roadmap,” based on the idea of backcasting. To formulate the implementation of and relations between measures, and to estimate the concrete schedule to achieve the targets, we developed a model called “backcasting tool” (BCT). Given the information of measures including GHG emission reduction by measures, required resource input and maximum total resource input, and so on, BCT estimates the progress of the measures from the current to the target year. The method was applied in Kyoto City with a low-carbon target, 40% reduction in CO 2 emission from fossil fuel by 2030 compared with 1990. Using BCT, we showed that a detailed schedule consists of about 100 measures classified into six fields. The result shows it is possible to achieve the target if all the measures, both direct and indirect, are implemented in time.

In this paper we draw up future roadmaps for technologies, policies, and optimal investment timing toward the achievement of a low-carbon society (LCS) in Japan by 2050. Future pathways for Japan to follow are calculated using an analytical model based on a backcasting methodology. Early actions can lead to pathways for minimizing the costs toward a LCS in Japan. However, to take early actions, large investments will be needed at the initial stages. The investment requirements for the residential and commercial sector and transportation sector will be especially costly: The former reaching 2.5 trillion JPY annually from 2010 to 2025 and the latter reaching 2.5 trillion JPY annually from 2010 to 2015. There are four main advantages to early actions. (1) Technologies have learning-by-doing effects: The additional cost of reducing CO2 emissions will fall as the technologies spread. (2) If actions are delayed, learning-by-doing effects may fail to work sufficiently, resulting in higher total investment requir...

Energy plays a dominant role in determining the individual competitiveness of a country and this is more relevant to emerging economies. That being said, energy also plays an important and ever expanding role in carbon emissions and sustainability of the country. As a developing country Thailand’s industrial sector is vibrant and robust and consumes majority of the energy. In addition, it also has the highest CO2 emissions, provided the emissions of power generation are taken into account. Industry also accounts for the highest consumption of electricity in Thailand. The objective of this study is to model the Thai industrial energy sector and estimate the mitigation potential for the timeframe of 2010–2050 using the principles of Low Carbon Society (LCS). In addition, the paper would also evaluate emission tax as a key driver of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation along with Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) analysis. Another secondary objective is to analyse the impact of mitigation on energy security of the industrial sector. The Thai industrial sector was modelled using AIM/Enduse model, which is a recursive dynamic optimisation model belonging to the Asia–Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) family. Thai industrial sector was divided into nine sub-sectors based on national economic reporting procedures. Results suggest that the mitigation potential in 2050, compared to the Baseline scenario, is around 20% with positive impacts on energy security. The Baseline emission will approximately be 377 Mt-CO2 in the industrial sector. All four indicators of energy security, Primary Energy Intensity, Carbon Intensity, Oil Share and Diversification of Fuel Share would exhibit enhanced energy security levels. The new Counter Measures (CM) proposed, such as, new and advanced technologies and fuel switching would drive the mitigation levels. Increase in energy efficiency of heating and electricity use would reduce the primary energy demand and intensity.