The increasing worldwide demand for traditional herbs has been met by growing cultivated herbs. It is undoubtedly very important to seek a reasonable cultivation mode for the yield, quality and long-term production stability of traditional herbs. In this study, licorice (Glycyrrhiza uralensis Fisch.) was investigated using a field experiment and a process-based model (Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC) model) to study the effects of mulching methods on root yield and soil organic carbon (SOC) long-term changes. The field experiment contained four treatments: plat planting without mulching (CK), ridge-furrow maize straw mulching (SM), ridge-furrow plastic film mulching (RP), and plat planting with plastic film mulching (FP). Licorice root yield was significantly higher in the SM, RP, and FP than in the CK. SM, RP and FP treatments increased the accumulation of liquiritin and glycyrrhizin in licorice roots. The SM significantly increased SOC content, SOC stocks, SOC sequestration rate, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content and microbial biomass carbon (MBC) compared to CK, but there was no significant difference in SOC and DOC among CK, RP and FP. The DNDC model was calibrated based on the field test data and showed that under the four CMIP6 SSPs scenarios, the predicted root yield of each treatment was increasing obviously. The production and stability of RP and FP were greater than CK and SM. The SOC under SM showed an increasing trend, whereas it continuously decreased under CK, RP, and FP in the future. The SOC of simulated RS treatment of straw incorporation plus a plastic film mulch was always at the highest value in all the treatments, and its root yield was slightly lower than that of RP and FP, the latter both were very close. Therefore, it is suggested that RS should be adopted to achieve sustained high yield while maintaining a high SOC level.