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Decreased body size is often cited as a major response to ocean warming. Available evidence, however, questions the actual emergence of shrinking trends and the prevalence of temperature‐driven changes in size over alternative drivers. In marine fish, changes in food availability or fluctuations in abundance, including those due to size‐selective fishing, provide compelling mechanisms to explain changes in body size. Here, based on three decades of scientific survey data (1990–2021), we report a decline in the average body size—length and weight—of anchovy, Engraulis encrasicolus L., in the Bay of Biscay. Shrinking was evident in all age classes, from juveniles to adults. Allometric adjustment indicated slightly more pronounced declines in weight than in total length, which is consistent with a change toward a slender body shape. Trends in adult weight were nonlinear, with rates accelerating to an average decline of up to 25% decade−1 during the last two decades. We found a strong association between higher anchovy abundance and reduced juvenile size. The effect of density dependence was less clear later in life, and temperature became the best predictor of declines in adult size. Theoretical analyses based on a strategic model further suggested that observed patterns are consistent with a simultaneous, opposing effect of rising temperatures on accelerating early growth and decreasing adult size as predicted by the temperature‐size rule. Macroecological assessment of ecogeographical—Bergmann's and James'—rules in anchovy size suggested that the observed decline largely exceeds intraspecific variation and might be the result of selection. Limitations inherent in the observational nature of the study recommend caution and a continued assessment and exploration of alternative drivers. Additional evidence of a climate‐driven regime shift in the region suggests, however, that shrinking anchovy sizes may signal a long‐lasting change in the structure and functioning of the Bay of Biscay ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current methods for monitoring marine fish (including bony fishes and elasmobranchs) diversity mostly rely on trawling surveys, which are invasive, costly, and time‐consuming. Moreover, these methods are selective, targeting a subset of species at the time, and can be inaccessible to certain areas. Here, we used environmental DNA (eDNA), the DNA present in the water column as part of shed cells, tissues, or mucus, to provide comprehensive information about fish diversity in a large marine area. Further, eDNA results were compared to the fish diversity obtained in pelagic trawls. A total of 44 5 L‐water samples were collected onboard a wide‐scale oceanographic survey covering about 120,000 square kilometers in Northeast Atlantic Ocean. A short region of the 12S rRNA gene was amplified and sequenced through metabarcoding generating almost 3.5 million quality‐filtered reads. Trawl and eDNA samples resulted in the same most abundant species (European anchovy, European pilchard, Atlantic mackerel, and blue whiting), but eDNA metabarcoding resulted in more detected bony fish and elasmobranch species (116) than trawling (16). Although an overall correlation between fishes biomass and number of reads was observed, some species deviated from the common trend, which could be explained by inherent biases of each of the methods. Species distribution patterns inferred from eDNA metabarcoding data coincided with current ecological knowledge of the species, suggesting that eDNA has the potential to draw sound ecological conclusions that can contribute to fish surveillance programs. Our results support eDNA metabarcoding for broad‐scale marine fish diversity monitoring in the context of Directives such as the Common Fisheries Policy or the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In autumn 2009, the implementation of two successive acoustic surveys targeting juvenile anchovy ( Engraulis encrasicolus) in the Bay of Biscay allowed us to monitor the changes in the spatial distribution and aggregation patterns of juveniles of this species during 45 days under fairly stable meteorological conditions. Juvenile anchovy changed its biological condition and behavior in a different manner in two distinct areas. In the Spanish sector, the juveniles migrated 20 nautical miles (n.mi.) towards the coast, but they remained on the shelf and near the surface during the whole surveyed period. As the advance towards the shelf break progressed, their area of distribution decreased, their density increased and the juveniles spread in fewer but heavier shoals. In the French sector, the juveniles also migrated from slope waters towards the coast at a similar velocity, but they crossed the shelf break into the continental shelf, where they increased their mean depth significantly until gradually adopting the typical nyctemeral migrations of adult anchovy. The mean length of the juveniles that adopted the nyctemeral migrations was significantly higher than that of the juveniles remaining at the surface, suggesting that body size is relevant to accomplish this change. Besides, the stronger temperature gradients between the shelf and oceanic waters in the Spanish sector, favored by a narrow shelf, may have acted as a barrier influencing the distinct observed spatial patterns in the two areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to understand better the recruitment variability in European anchovy in the Bay of Biscay, it is important to investigate the processes that affect survival during the early life stages. Anchovy juvenile growth trajectories and hatch-date distributions were inferred over a 3-year period based on otolith microstructure analysis. Otolith growth trajectories showed a characteristic shape depending on their hatch-date timing. Earlier-born juveniles had notably broader maximum increments than later born conspecifics, resulting in higher growth rates. This observation suggests that early hatching would be beneficial for larval and juvenile growth, and, therefore, survival. The estimated juvenile hatch-date distributions were relatively narrow compared with the extended anchovy spawning season (March-August) in the Bay of Biscay and indicated that only individuals originated mainly from the summer months (June-August) survived until autumn. Hatch-date distributions were markedly different among years and seemed to influence the interannual recruitment strength of anchovy. We conclude that years characterized by juvenile survivors originating from the peak spawning period (May and June) would lead to considerable recruitment success. Downwelling events during the peak spawning period seem to affect larval survival. Furthermore, size-dependent overwinter mortality would be an additional process that regulates recruitment strength in the anchovy population in the Bay of Biscay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small pelagic fish can play an important role in various ecosystems linking lower and upper trophic levels. Among the factor behind the observed inter-annual variations in small pelagic fish abundance, intra- and inter-specific trophic interactions could have a strong impact on the recruitment variability (e.g. anchovy). Egg cannibalism observed in anchovies has been postulated to be a mechanism that determines the upper limit of the population density and self-regulates the population abundance of the species. On the other hand, predation by other guild species is commonly considered as a regulation mechanism between competing species. This study provides empirical evidence of anchovy cannibalism and predation of the main small pelagic fish species on anchovy eggs and estimates the effect of intraguild predation on the anchovy egg mortality rate. Results show that, depending on the year (2008-2009), up to 33 % of the total anchovy egg mortality was the result of sardine predation and up to 4 % was the result of egg cannibalism together with predation by Atlantic and Atlantic Chub mackerel and sprat. Results also indicate that in the Bay of Biscay, fluctuations in the survival index of the early life stages of anchovy are likely to be attributable at least in part to egg cannibalism and especially to a high sardine predation on anchovy eggs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A real-time PCR based method involving a species-specific probe was applied to detect Engraulis encrasicolus eggs predation by the macrozooplankton community during the 2011 spawning season. Three locations along the shelf break presenting contrasting but high prey densities were sampled. A total of 840 individuals from 38 taxa of potential macrozooplankton predators were assayed for E. encrasicolus DNA presence and 27 presented at least one positive signal. Carnivorous copepods were responsible for the most predation events (66%) followed by euphausiids (16%), chaetognaths (5%), and myctophid fish (4%). Macrozooplankton predation on anchovy eggs followed a type-I functional response with daily mortalities <4% of available prey abundance suggesting a negligible impact on the species recruitment at the shelf break spawning centre. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various hypotheses have been put forward to explain the mechanisms in the Bay of Biscay that result in a good recruitment of European anchovy. Anchovy larvae from the spawning area in the Gironde River plume are advected towards off-shelf waters, where juveniles are commonly observed. Otolith microstructural and chemical analysis were combined to assess the importance of this off-shelf transport and to determine the relative contribution of these areas for anchovy survival. Chemical analysis of otoliths showed that anchovy juveniles in the Bay of Biscay can be divided into two groups: a group that drifts towards off-shelf waters early in their life and returns later, and a group that remains in the low salinity waters of the coastal area. The first group presents significantly faster growth rates (0.88 mm day−1) than those remaining in the coastal waters (0.32 mm day−1). This may be due to off-shelf waters being warmer in spring/summer, and to the fact that the lower food concentration is compensated for by higher prey visibility. Furthermore, the group of juveniles that drifted off the spawning area and had faster growth rates represents 99% of the juvenile population. These findings support the hypothesis that anchovy in the Bay of Biscay may use off-shelf waters as a spatio-temporal loophole, suggesting that transport off the shelf may be favourable for recruitment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improving our ability to predict recruitment is a key element in fisheries management. However, the interactions between population dynamics and different environmental factors are complex and often non-linear, making it difficult to produce robust predictions. ‘Machine-learning’ techniques (in particular, supervised classification methods) have been proposed as useful tools, to overcome such difficulties. In this study, a methodology is proposed to build a robust classifier for fish recruitment prediction with sparse and noisy data. The methodology consists of 4 steps: (1) a semi-automated recruitment discretization method; (2) supervised discretization of predictors; (3) multivariate and non-redundant predictors selection; (4) learning a probabilistic classifier. In terms of fisheries management, the classifier estimated performance has important consequences and, to be useful, the manager needs to know the risk that is being taken when using this number. Probabilistic classifiers such as ‘naive Bayes’, have the advantage that, in addition to the predictions, estimate also the probability of each possible outcome. Anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and hake (Merluccius merluccius) recruitments are used as application examples. ‘Two-intervals’ recruitment discretization accomplishes 70% accuracies and Brier scores of around 0.10, for both anchovy and hake recruitment. In comparison, ‘three-intervals’ recruitment discretization accomplishes 50% accuracies; and Brier scores of around 0.25 for anchovy and 0.30 for hake recruitment. These statistics are the result of validating not only the classifier, but also the previous steps, as a whole methodology. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this study the spatial distribution of eggs, larvae and juveniles of European anchovy ( Engraulis encrasicolus) was followed in 2004 and 2005 during three consecutive cruises each year in spring–summer to test what the limits of retention are in a non-upwelling area. Eggs, small larvae and large juveniles were mainly distributed over the shelf, whereas large larvae and small juveniles were found mainly off the shelf. Although overall distributions were similar, the 2 yr differed in that there was more of a coastal distribution of individuals in 2004, whereas in 2005 more individuals were found off the shelf. There were no significant differences in the length–weight relationships for individuals found on and off the shelf or between years. The correspondence in circulation patterns and the lack of difference in the length–weight relationships suggest that a single population is present, larvae drifting off the shelf due to currents and returning as mobile juveniles. Quantile regression analysis of the long-term recruitment index suggests that transport off the shelf may favour good recruitments. This would suggest that in non-upwelling regions the retention area resulting in good recruitment may not be restricted to the shelf. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]