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At any particular moment, the energy security of an energy system is at risk from events, both external and internal, that can affect its operation. By analyzing these risks, the state of the system’s energy security can be determined. If the method is generic, it can be applied to any energy system and the entities that support its operation. Despite the potential benefits of such a method, a review of the literature shows that existing methods of analysis focus on, for example, limited parts of the system or specific types of energy. To address this shortcoming, this paper presents a method for analyzing the risks to the energy security of any entity in an energy system. The method, derived from work at the National Institute for Statistics and Technology (NIST), determines the risks to an entity using the well-known properties of events (rate-of-occurrence and expected stress) and entities (flows, time-to-recover, and stress-tolerance). The paper demonstrates how the method can be applied using both qualitative and quantitative data to measure, analyze, and potentially improve a system’s energy security. Several examples are included. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy security exists in an energy system until an event occurs which increases the stress on one or more of its entities. A resilient entity, designed to recover quickly from an event, will return the system (and, by extension, the affected entity) to its previous secure state. However, if the event occurs repeatedly or the time to recover is deemed too slow, or both, the system may remain in a high-stress, insecure state. In these situations, if the stress is to be reduced, the entity must be adapted to handle the event and put the system into a new, secure state. This paper applies research from a variety of disciplines to analyze the temporal effects of events on entities, and shows how resilience and adaptation contribute to the existence of energy security in energy systems. It underscores the importance of time when discussing the impact of events on an energy system and employs methods associated with reliability, notably mean time between failures (MTBF), mean time to recover (MTTR), and tolerance, to describe resilience and adaptation. The analysis is presented and discussed with examples using three common energy security indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to maintain or improve a jurisdiction's energy security, its energy system needs to meet the demands of its energy services with affordable and preferably environmentally acceptable flows of energy. Since diversity can be a factor in the long-term survival of a system, having a diversity of energy flows is frequently treated as a proxy for energy security. This paper examines the relationship between energy security and the diversity of an energy system's energy flows using a set of energy security indicators and the Shannon-Wiener diversity index. Although diversity may be considered necessary for maintaining and improving energy security, the quantitative analysis of the relationship shows that an energy flow considered diverse need not be secure and that a secure energy flow need not be considered diverse. Examples of this relationship are included. These findings can prove useful to policy makers and energy analysts when developing transition strategies for a jurisdiction's energy system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Energy systems change over time as events, such as grid failures, new energy sources, and extreme weather conditions, occur, often affecting the system's energy security. Understanding events, their causes, and how they are handled, can help a jurisdiction and its energy stakeholders develop better, evidence-based energy policy. This paper employs a definition of stress in combination with systems analysis to specify methods for explaining the states through which an energy process, chain, or system passes in response to an event and how this response results in energy security improving, deteriorating, or being maintained. The definition uses three dimensions-availability, affordability, and acceptability-derived from the International Energy Agency's definition of energy security to show when and how a system's energy security will change. Examples are used to illustrate the application of the methods. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Two of the most significant challenges in the 21st century will be to improve energy security and reduce the greenhouse gas emissions associated with energy consumption. A co-beneficial solution to these challenges is seen as increasing the use of renewable energy for the production of electricity. Some renewable sources, such as wind are often presented as a way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; however, since wind’s variability increases uncertainty and risk in expected generation, it can be detrimental to energy security. One of the ways in which wind’s contribution to a jurisdiction’s energy security and greenhouse gas reduction strategies can be improved is to employ a forecasting method that can help reduce risks. This paper proposes a method that applies risk and reliability analysis techniques to obtain the most-likely RL (Resistance–Load) scenario using a set of historical data for wind-supply or generation and load. RL estimates the reliability of a wind-energy system by simulating an anticipated resistance (the electrical generation) attempting to meet a load (the electricity demand) for a future year. The method is demonstrated through a case study and its results are compared with real-time data from a 12MW wind farm to prove its efficacy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Worldwide, many electricity suppliers are faced with the challenge of trying to integrate intermittent renewables, notably wind, into their energy mix to meet the needs of those services that require a continuous supply of electricity. Solutions to intermittency include the use of rapid-response backup generation and chemical or mechanical storage of electricity. Meanwhile, in many jurisdictions with lengthy heating seasons, finding secure and preferably environmentally benign supplies of energy for space heating is also becoming a significant challenge because of volatile energy markets. Most, if not all, electricity suppliers treat these twin challenges as separate issues: supply (integrating intermittent renewables) and demand (electric space heating). However, if space heating demand can be met from an intermittent supply of electricity, then both of these issues can be addressed simultaneously. One such approach is to use off-the-shelf electric thermal storage systems. This paper examines the potential of this approach by applying the output from a 5.15 MW wind farm to the residential heating demands of detached households in the Canadian province of Prince Edward Island. The paper shows that for the heating season considered, up to 500 households could have over 95 percent of their space heating demand met from the wind farm in question. The benefits as well as the limitations of the approach are discussed in detail. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]