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Subnational climate actors are expected to play an increasingly important role in climate actions. However, a trade-off between equity and efficiency emerges when nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are distributed into subnational actions. In this study, we propose a two-staged carbon quota allocation method, with an equity-based 1st-stage allocation mechanism wherein provincial carbon reduction efforts are shared equally and an efficiency-based 2nd-stage allocation mechanism to maximize input–output efficiency. Using China as a case study, we convert China's NDC carbon intensity reduction target into a total emissions cap and apply the allocation method to show that the 2nd-stage allocation significantly increases the total provincial carbon emission efficiency without seriously compromising equity. As the allocation method changes from equity-based to efficiency-based, the carbon quotas mainly flow out from provinces with small emissions and high energy intensity to provinces with large emissions and low energy intensity. The two-staged carbon quota allocation method effectively considers the equity and efficiency principles, which can reduce resistance to the implementation of national NDCs. Generally, the approach has promising application potential for countries to break down the NDC into subnational shares. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing building energy consumption in China has been acknowledged as a key concern in future climate mitigation and sustainable development. Though reliable accounting of energy consumption is the prerequisite, estimates of China's building energy consumption remain subject to large discrepancies. One of the primary causes of these disparities is an inaccurate estimation of building energy intensities due to flaws in estimation methods and data. Here, we present a bottom-up approach and use large-scale nationwide building energy survey data (covering 30 provinces, four different types of buildings, and district heating from 2009 to 2016) to correct the existing, widely used assumption of normal distribution for building energy intensity and provide a more accurate estimate of building energy consumption in China. Our improved estimate of China's building energy consumption differs by −10% to 36% from existing mainstream estimates, indicating a significant bias in existing research and applications. • The non-normal probability distribution of building energy intensity is identified. • A bottom-up approach for the accurate estimate of building energy use is developed. • The re-quantified building energy use differs by −10% ~ 36% from the main estimates. • The features of building energy consumption in China were explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a major carbon emitter in China, the emission mitigation in industrial sector performs great significance for China to achieve its emission reduction targets. Using the provincial panel data during 2000–2016 of China's industrial sector, this paper first used a gravity model to study the spatial distribution and center of gravity of industrial CO2 emissions. Then, an integrated decomposition approach based on Shephard distance functions was adopted to study the driving factors of industrial carbon intensity. Results indicate that during 2000–2016, industrial CO2 emissions center of gravity gradually moved to the west. China's industrial carbon intensity achieved considerable decline, with the annual change rate of 8.27%. The energy intensity decline, technology progresses of both production and energy saving were the most important factors facilitating carbon intensity decline. However, energy structure adjustment exerted positive effects in carbon intensity increase, although its effects were minor. Industrial carbon intensity witnessed decrease in almost all provinces except Xinjiang. The effects resulted from various factors were also different across provinces. Finally, suggestions were proposed to further decrease industrial carbon intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building energy use is becoming increasingly important in China. Despite a rapid growth in recent years, energy use intensity in China is still relatively low compared to other advanced economies; thus, there is still substantial room for it to increase as living standards and industrial services are improved. It is therefore important to focus on the future development of building energy use by considering new trends in the building and energy sectors, as well as the role of occupant behavior. This study uses the China Building Energy Model (CBEM) to model China's building energy consumption and carbon emissions up to 2050 for different scenarios based on these considerations. The results indicate that building energy use will be 80% higher than the current situation if the strategies of the 13th Five-Year Plan are maintained and approximately 10% higher if stronger strategies toward energy efficiency are employed. Carbon emissions are predicted to peak around 2020 to 2035. The contributions of key strategies in different subsectors are also discussed. This research suggests that, through the use of suitable strategies and policies, energy use and carbon emissions in China's building sector can achieve the combined goals of energy revolution and climate change mitigation. • China's building energy consumption and carbon emissions up to 2050 were modeled. • China's building energy use will be 10%–80% higher under different scenarios. • The contributions of key strategies in different subsectors were discussed. • China's building sector is able to develop sustainably with suitable strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's transportation industry, with its typical characteristics of "high energy consumption and high emissions", is a key point for China's CO 2 emission reduction. An investigation of the driving factors of China's transport energy-related CO 2 emissions has great importance for clarifying the "gains" and "losses" as well as the future focuses of CO 2 emissions emission reduction in this sector. Existing studies on the driving factors of transport CO 2 emissions in China fail to incorporate effects of technology and efficiency into decomposition analysis framework. Based on the provincial panel data of China's transportation industry for the period of 2004–2016, this paper uses a comprehensive decomposition framework, which combines the logarithmic mean Divisia index method (LMDI) and production-theoretical decomposition analysis (PDA), to decompose China's transport CO 2 emissions into nine components: emission factor effect, energy structure effect, scale effect, regional structure effect, energy-saving technology effect, production technology effect, energy efficiency effect, production efficiency effect, and potential energy intensity effect. The main results indicate that: (1) during the sample period, China's transport industry witnessed 498.998 million tons (Mt) CO 2 emissions growth. Scale effect was the largest contributor, followed by production technology, energy-saving technology, and energy structure; (2) the improvement of energy efficiency and production efficiency, the decline of electricity's emission factor, and regional structure adjustment played active roles in the CO 2 emission reduction of transportation industry; (3) the performance of various driving factors varies greatly in different provinces. Local governments should establish and implement policies tailored to their characteristics. • A production-theoretical approach was used for China's transport CO 2 emissions. • It can decompose CO 2 emissions from technology and efficiency perspectives. • Results show that during 2004–2016, China's transport CO 2 emissions increased by 498.998 Mt. • Output effect was the largest contributor to this remarkable increase of transport CO 2 emissions. • Technology and efficiency factors cumulatively reduced 242.1 Mt transport CO 2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]