1. Intercomparison of Magnitudes and Trends in Anthropogenic Surface Emissions From Bottom-Up Inventories, Top-Down Estimates, and Emission Scenarios
- Author
-
Zhe Jiang, Jeroen Kuenen, J.-F. Müller, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, T. Stavrakou, Bo Zheng, H.A.C. Denier van der Gon, Sabine Darras, Claire Granier, J. Kurokawa, Zhen Qu, Daven K. Henze, Cheng Chen, Maite Bauwens, N. Elguindi, Catherine Liousse, Oleg Dubovik, Sekou Keita, Tzung-May Fu, H. Cao, Fabien Solmon, Laboratoire d'aérologie (LAERO), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy / Institut d'Aéronomie Spatiale de Belgique (BIRA-IASB), Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), University of Colorado [Boulder], Laboratoire d’Optique Atmosphérique - UMR 8518 (LOA), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), TNO Climate, Air and Sustainability [Utrecht], The Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO), Southern University of Science and Technology [Shenzhen] (SUSTech), University of Science and Technology of China [Hefei] (USTC), Université Péléforo Gon Coulibaly, UFR des Sciences Biologiques, Korhogo BP 1328, Côte d’Ivoire, Asia Center for Air Pollution Research (ACAP), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, CAMS: 2016-2018, TROVA-E2 (2019 National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NASA European Space Agency, ESA Belgian Federal Science Policy Office, BELSPO: GOME-2, We would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their contributions in improving the final version of this manuscript. This study has received support from the CAMS (Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring System) project and contributes to the AMIGO (Analysis of eMIssions usinG Observations, https://amigo.aeronomie.be/) project of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) project. This research (M.?B.) has also been supported by the projects PRODEX TROVA (2016-2018) and TROVA-E2 (2019) of the European Space Agency (ESA) funded by the Belgian Science Policy Office, as well as by the SOLFEO project funded by ESA. We acknowledge the use of data products from the NASA AURA and EOS Terra satellite missions. We also acknowledge the free use of tropospheric NO2 column data from the SCIAMACHY, GOME-2, and OMI sensors from www.temis.nl. Part of this work was conducted at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). D.?K.?H. and Z.?Q. recognize support from NASA ACMAP and HAQAST., Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France, Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
- Subjects
Pollution ,Emission inventories ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,media_common.quotation_subject ,0207 environmental engineering ,02 engineering and technology ,[SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology ,01 natural sciences ,7. Clean energy ,Anthropogenic surface emissions ,West africa ,Shared Socioeconomic Pathways ,lcsh:QH540-549.5 ,Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) ,Air quality modelling ,020701 environmental engineering ,China ,Air quality index ,lcsh:Environmental sciences ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,General Environmental Science ,media_common ,lcsh:GE1-350 ,Inverse Modelling ,Top-down and bottom-up design ,Work (electrical) ,13. Climate action ,Climatology ,Environmental science ,lcsh:Ecology - Abstract
International audience; This study compares recent CO, NOx, NMVOC, SO2, BC, and OC anthropogenic emissions from several state-of-the-art top-down estimates to global and regional bottom-up inventories and projections from five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in several regions. Results show that top-down emissions derived in several recent studies exhibit similar uncertainty as bottom-up inventories in some regions for certain species and even less in the case of Chinese CO emissions. In general, the largest discrepancies are found outside of regions such as the United States, Europe, and Japan where the most accurate and detailed information on emissions is available. In some regions such as China, which has recently undergone dynamical economic growth and changes in air quality regulations, the top-down estimates better capture recent emission trends than global bottom-up inventories. These results show the potential of top-down estimates to complement bottom-up inventories and to aide in the development of emission scenarios, particularly in regions where global inventories lack the necessary up-to-date and accurate information regarding regional activity data and emission factors such as Africa and India. Areas of future work aimed at quantifying and reducing uncertainty are also highlighted. A regional comparison of recent CO and NOx trends in the five SSPs indicate that SSP126, a strong pollution control scenario, best represents the trends from the top-down and regional bottom-up inventories in the United States, Europe, and China, while SSP460, a low-pollution control scenario, lies closest to actual trends in West Africa. This analysis can be useful for air quality forecasting and near-future pollution control/mitigation policy studies.
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF