7 results on '"Rong, Lili"'
Search Results
2. An Agent-Based Transmission Model of Major Infectious Diseases Considering Places: Forecast and Control.
- Author
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Zhang, Jingwen, Rong, Lili, and Gong, Yufan
- Subjects
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COMMUNICABLE diseases , *INFECTIOUS disease transmission , *TRAVEL regulations , *EMERGENCY management - Abstract
This paper enhances the agent model of ordinary individuals by incorporating the roles of places in the transmission, prevention, and control in the process, establishing a fundamental connection between these two types of agents through individual travel rules. The impact of real-world prevention and control measures on regional epidemic transmission is studied based on this model. Firstly, based on the analysis of place elements in typical cases of major infectious diseases, we give the classification of places. Secondly, the resident agent and the place agent are constructed and rules are established to form an agent-based major infectious disease transmission model considering the place. Then, the simulation process is established and an ideal regional environment is constructed to simulate overall changes in major infectious disease scale and spread speed. Additionally, evolutionary simulations are conducted for individual isolation intensity and place control time during emergency management stages to compare infection outcomes, and we analyze different roles and application scenarios of specific prevention and control measures. Finally, simulation results from real major infectious disease cases in Yangzhou, China, validate the effectiveness of this model in predicting major infectious disease development trends as well as evaluating prevention and control measure effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. Assessing regional risk of COVID-19 infection from Wuhan via high-speed rail.
- Author
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Li, Tao, Rong, Lili, and Zhang, Anming
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COVID-19 , *HIGH speed trains , *EMERGENCY management , *RESOURCE allocation , *DECISION making - Abstract
This paper demonstrates that transportation networks may be used to assess and predict the regional risk of COVID-19 infection from the outbreak. We use China's high-speed rail (HSR) network at the scale of prefecture level to assess, based on a probabilistic risk model, the risk of COVID-19 infection from Wuhan to the country's 31 province-level regions at the early stage of domestic spread. We find that the high-risk regions are mainly distributed along the southern half of Beijing-Hong Kong HSR line, where a large number of infection cases have been confirmed at the early stage. Furthermore, the two components of the infection risk, namely, the probability (proxied by the region's correlation with Wuhan through HSR) and the impact (proxied by the region's population with mobility), can play different roles in the risk ranking for different regions. For public health administrators, these findings may be used for better decision making, including the preparation of emergency plans and supplies, and the allocation of limited resources, before the extensive spread of the epidemic. Moreover, the administrators should adopt different intervention measures for different regions, so as to better mitigate the epidemic spread according to their own risk scenarios with respect to the probability of occurring and, once occurred, the impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. A comprehensive method for the robustness assessment of high-speed rail network with operation data: A case in China.
- Author
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Li, Tao and Rong, Lili
- Subjects
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HIGH speed trains , *EMERGENCY management , *ACCOUNTING methods , *ECONOMIC activity , *ECONOMIC man - Abstract
• HSRN is modeled as a two-layer network based on high-speed trains running in it. • Space-time failure effects of high-speed trains on HSRN robustness are investigated. • A method assessing robustness is proposed from function feature and topology feature. • Travel time and passenger flow are taken into account in the methodology. High-speed rail (HSR) has become a critical infrastructure and even has formed a network in some countries, which plays an increasingly significant part in the modern transport system and exerts increasingly obvious impacts on regional economic activity and human mobility. Although its interruption may cause serious consequences, researching its robustness doesn't attract attention until recent years. Based on previous researches on the issue, this paper proposes a comprehensive method to assess the robustness of high-speed rail network (HSRN) by combining the network function features with network topology features and modeling HSRN as a two-layer network based on the high-speed trains running in the network, in which the travel time and passenger flow are taken into account. Finally, taking China's HSRN (CHSRN) as a case study, this paper investigates the failure effects of HSR stations and high-speed trains on the robustness of CHSRN, especially the space-time failure effects of high-speed trains at three typical HSR stations. Results reveal that the failure effects of trains at the selected stations on the performance of CHSRN are limited, and the failure effects of trains at three typical stations on the performance are different as the different failure time, which is beneficial to prioritize the decisions on maintenance resource allocation and prepare emergency response plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
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5. Vulnerability analysis and critical area identification of public transport system: A case of high-speed rail and air transport coupling system in China.
- Author
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Li, Tao, Rong, Lili, and Yan, Kesheng
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HIGH speed trains , *COMMERCIAL aeronautics , *EMERGENCY management , *DATABASES , *CRITICAL analysis , *TRAIN schedules , *EXPRESS highways - Abstract
• A method to assess the vulnerability of PTS comprising subsystem is proposed. • Critical areas of PTS are identified based on running timetable and position data. • Differences of vulnerability or critical area between subsystem and PTS are revealed. • A case of high-speed rail and air transport coupling system in China is researched. The public transport system (PTS) consists of different types of transport subsystems, such as high-speed rail (HSR), air transport (AT), conventional railway, expressway and waterway in a state, which exerts significant impacts on distribution of demographic and economic activities. And its interruption or failure may cause severe social and economic disruption. So the vulnerability analysis of the system attracts an increasing attention. However, most of previous researches mainly concentrate on the vulnerability modeling and analyzing of a single subsystem, neglecting the simultaneous interruption of components, and less considering the complementary effects of other subsystems from systematic perspective and the geographic interdependency among components. For trying to fill these gaps, this paper proposes a method to analyze the vulnerability of PTS composed of two or more transport subsystems and identity the critical area within the system based on the data of running timetable and position coordinates. Finally, taking HSR and AT coupling system in mainland China as a case study, we investigate the differences of vulnerability and critical areas between individual subsystem and overall system. Results reveal that the vulnerability variations and the critical areas distribution of the system are different from these of the subsystems. The research also finds that whether a component is critical depends not only on the system's feature, but also on the component's feature, whether an area is critical depends on economic development and population density of the area. These findings are beneficial to prioritize the plan, budget and maintenance of PTS, and prepare emergency response plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2019
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6. Refined urban disaster vulnerability assessment based on elements at risk: A case study of Dalian, China.
- Author
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Qin, Yu, Rong, Lili, Qie, Zijun, and Li, Tao
- Subjects
HAZARD mitigation ,EMERGENCY management ,DISASTERS ,GLOBAL warming ,CITIES & towns - Abstract
• Assess urban disaster vulnerability from the perspective of elements at risk. • Discover the spatial difference of urban disaster vulnerability. • Reveal the spatial heterogeneity of urban disaster vulnerability. • Overcome data and space limitations of traditional vulnerability assessment methods. With the rapid development of global urbanization, cities tend to suffer higher frequencies and risks of various hazards and are becoming more vulnerable, especially under the circumstance of global warming. Hence, people have begun to attach importance to the study of urban disaster vulnerability gradually. However, existing studies focus more on the multi-dimensional expression and comprehensive measurement of disaster vulnerability at the macro scale, which cannot reflect the changes of disaster vulnerability within the small scale. It is difficult for the research results to provide practical information for accurate disaster prevention and reduction. For this purpose, this study proposed a framework for refined urban disaster vulnerability assessment from the perspective of elements at risk, which includes three quantitative models: exposure assessment model, sensibility assessment model, and coping capability assessment model. Then, the framework and its quantitative models were applied to assess the disaster vulnerability of Dalian at the scale of 30 × 30 m grid. Furthermore, the main factors contributing to vulnerability were highlighted based on of exposure, sensibility, and coping capability indexs. Results showed that the disaster vulnerability of Dalian was autocorrelative and heterogeneous spatially. This research could provides some implications for disaster mitigation and risk reduction strategies at the urban scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
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7. Spatial–temporal human exposure modeling based on land-use at a regional scale in China.
- Author
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Qie, Zijun and Rong, Lili
- Subjects
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LAND use , *EMERGENCY management , *HYPERGRAPHS , *RISK assessment , *SPATIOTEMPORAL processes ,ENVIRONMENTAL protection planning - Abstract
Regional human exposure to the hazard is an important basis of decision support for more efficient and effective emergency management especially pre-event. Due to the diverse locations of human activities and the displacements they induce, the spatial distribution of population is inhomogeneous and strongly time-dependent. Hence, in the present work, land use pattern was introduced to reflect the distribution characteristics of human exposure in hazard affected regions both in daytime and nighttime. Human activities that contribute to spatial distribution variance were considered to establish the correlation between human types and land-use patterns at a regional scale. Furthermore, hypergraph was used to model the regional human exposure in order to benefit the analysis of spatial–temporal distribution characteristics of population, and variance algorithms for disaggregating different styles of human to the regional land were constructed. What’s more, the model was applied to the analysis of potential human exposure in the built district of Dalian City. Results show that a great amount of area and population are beyond moderate exposure levels on urban construction land of Dalian City, and the population potentially exposed significantly increases from nighttime to daytime periods, especially in the zones with diverse human activities. The presented approach in this study can not only be of utmost importance for vulnerability assessment or risk evaluation, but also for regional and environmental planning as well as local development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2016
- Full Text
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