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This paper examines ground motions for a major potential Mw7:51 rupture of the Hope Fault using a physicsbased simulation methodology and a 3D crustal velocity model of New Zealand. The simulation methodology was validated for use in the region through comparison with observations for a suite of historic small magnitude earthquakes located proximal to the Hope Fault. Simulations are compared with conventionally utilised empirical ground motion models, with simulated peak ground velocities being notably higher in regions with modelled sedimentary basins. A sensitivity analysis was undertaken where the source characteristics of magnitude, stress parameter, hypocentre location and kinematic slip distribution were varied and an analysis of their effect on ground motion intensities is presented. It was found that the magnitude and stress parameter strongly influenced long and short period ground motion amplitudes, respectively. Ground motion intensities for the Hope Fault scenario are compared with the 2016 Kaikoura Mw7:8 earthquake, it was found that the Kaikoura earthquake produced stronger motions along the eastern South Island, while the Hope Fault scenario resulted in stronger motions immediately West of the near-fault region and similar levels of ground motion in Canterbury. The simulated ground motions for this scenario complement prior empirically-based estimates and are informative for mitigation and emergency planning purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses simulated ground motion intensity, and its underlying modelling assumptions, for great earthquakes on the Alpine Fault. The simulations utilise the latest understanding of wave propagation physics, kinematic earthquake rupture descriptions and the three-dimensional nature of the Earth's crust in the South Island of New Zealand. The effect of hypocentre location is explicitly examined, which is found to lead to significant differences in ground motion intensities (quantified in the form of peak ground velocity, PGV) over the northern half and southwest of the South Island. Comparison with previously adopted empirical ground motion models also illustrates that the simulations, which explicitly model rupture directivity and basin-generated surface waves, lead to notably larger PGV amplitudes than the empirical predictions in the northern half of the South Island and Canterbury. The simulations performed in this paper have been adopted, as one possible ground motion prediction, in the ‘Project AF8’ Civil Defence Emergency Management exercise scenario. The similarity of the modelled ground motion features with those observed in recent worldwide earthquakes as well as similar simulations in other regions, and the notably higher simulated amplitudes than those from empirical predictions, may warrant a re-examination of regional impact assessments for major Alpine Fault earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]