Search

A flash flood disaster is one of the most destructive natural disasters. With the increase in extreme rainfall events, more and more areas will be threatened by flash floods. The flash flood susceptibility assessment is the basis of flash flood risk assessment and is also an important step in flash flood disaster management. Based on Citespace analysis tools, this study made a bibliometric and visualized analysis of 305 documents collected in the core collection of Web of Science in the past 15 years, including the analysis of the number of publications and citation frequency, influence analysis, keyword analysis, author co-citation analysis, and institutional co-operation analysis. This paper summarizes the current research status and future development trend of flash flood susceptibility assessment from five key research subfields, including assessment scale, assessment unit, assessment index, assessment model, and model assessment method, discusses the analysis of the application of remote sensing and GIS in flash flood susceptibility assessment, discusses the problems encountered in the current research of the five subfields, and provides suggestions for flash flood hazard control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslide prediction is one of the complicated topics recognized by the global scientific community. The research on landslide susceptibility prediction is vitally important to mitigate and prevent landslide disasters. The instability and complexity of the landslide system can cause uncertainty in the prediction process and results. Although there are many types of models for landslide susceptibility prediction, they still do not have a unified theoretical basis or accuracy test standard. In the past, models were mainly subjectively selected and determined by researchers, but the selection of models based on subjective experience often led to more significant uncertainty in the prediction process and results. To improve the universality of the model and the reliability of the prediction accuracy, it is urgent to systematically summarize and analyze the performance of different models to reduce the impact of uncertain factors on the prediction results. For this purpose, this paper made extensive use of document analysis and data mining tools for the bibliometric and knowledge mapping analysis of 600 documents collected by two data platforms, Web of Science and Scopus, in the past 40 years. This study focused on the uncertainty analysis of four key research subfields (namely disaster-causing factors, prediction units, model space data sets, and prediction models), systematically summarized the difficulties and hotspots in the development of various landslide prediction models, discussed the main problems encountered in these four subfields, and put forward some suggestions to provide references for further improving the prediction accuracy of landslide disaster susceptibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the "5·12" Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, collapses and landslides have occurred continuously, resulting in the accumulation of a large quantity of loose sediment on slopes or in gullies, providing rich material source reserves for the occurrence of debris flow and flash flood disasters. Therefore, it is of great significance to build a collapse and landslide susceptibility evaluation model in Wenchuan County for local disaster prevention and mitigation. Taking Wenchuan County as the research object and according to the data of 1081 historical collapse and landslide disaster points, as well as the natural environment, this paper first selects six categories of environmental factors (13 environmental factors in total) including topography (slope, aspect, curvature, terrain relief, TWI), geological structure (lithology, soil type, distance to fault), meteorology and hydrology (rainfall, distance to river), seismic impact (PGA), ecological impact (NDVI), and impact of human activity (land use). It then builds three single models (LR, SVM, RF) and three CF-based hybrid models (CF-LR, CF-SVM, CF-RF), and makes a comparative analysis of the accuracy and reliability of the models, thereby obtaining the optimal model in the research area. Finally, this study discusses the contribution of environmental factors to the collapse and the landslide susceptibility prediction of the optimal model. The research results show that (1) the areas prone to extremely high collapse and landslide predicted by the six models (LR, CF-LR, SVM, CF-SVM, RF and CF-RF) have an area of 730.595 km2, 377.521 km2, 361.772 km2, 372.979 km2, 318.631 km2, and 306.51 km2, respectively, and the frequency ratio precision of collapses and landslides is 0.916, 0.938, 0.955, 0.956, 0.972, and 0.984, respectively; (2) the ranking of the comprehensive index based on the confusion matrix is CF-RF>RF>CF-SVM>CF-LR>SVM>LR and the ranking of the AUC value is CF-RF>RF>CF-SVM>CF-LR>SVM>LR. To a certain extent, the coupling models can improve precision more over the single models. The CF-RF model ranks the highest in all indexes, with a POA value of 257.046 and an AUC value of 0.946; (3) rainfall, soil type, and distance to river are the three most important environmental factors, accounting for 24.216%, 22.309%, and 11.41%, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring of mountains and rock masses close to rivers in case of rainstorms in Wenchuan county and other similar areas prone to post-earthquake landslides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]