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We propose a method to estimate transmission‐line overloads due to forecast errors of power output of renewable energy sources. The proposed method involves particle swarm optimization and optimal power flow calculations. The effectiveness of the method is confirmed via numerical simulations using a modified IEEE RTS 24‐bus system model. The results indicate that the proposed method can determine the forecast errors of the renewable power output that causes thermal overload, and further predict the occurrences of transmission‐line overload under generator activation in supply and demand planning. Furthermore, we explain the occurrence mechanism of transmission‐line overload due to forecast errors, which may contribute to improve the daily supply and demand planning. © 2023 Institute of Electrical Engineer of Japan and Wiley Periodicals LLC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the aggregation business has gained a lot of attention in Japan. Aggregators will make contracts with customers with photovoltaic (PV) power systems and battery energy storage systems (BESSs) including electric vehicles (EVs) to participate in electricity markets. Aggregators might have to pay electricity supply‐demand imbalance charges when generated and consumed energies contracted at the day‐ahead supply‐demand market are different from those at the current day operation due to distribution network constraints such as voltage and power flow limitations. Therefore, the information on network constraints is very important for aggregators to determine their day‐ahead schedules. In this paper, we evaluated the relationship between aggregator supply‐demand schedules and the distribution system operation. It was assumed that the reverse power flow limitations due to network constraints are notified to the aggregators by distribution system operator (DSO). Two cases of the aggregators' schedules of PV systems and stationary BESSs were compared in the simulations. In addition, aggregator strategies for making adequate schedules were evaluated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]