1. Minority Governments, Election Rules and Ideological Congruence.
- Author
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Powell Jr., G. Bingham
- Subjects
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MINORITY government , *ELECTION law , *IDEOLOGY , *VOTERS , *POLITICAL parties - Abstract
In this paper I first demonstrate that varying assumptions about estimating the ideological positions of minority governments have significant consequences for inferences about ideological congruence in parliamentary systems, especially for comparing majority and minority governments and consequences of PR and SMD electoral systems. Minority governments whose ideological position is estimated in the now standard way, from the positions of parties in the cabinet weighted by their legislative seat proportions or portfolios, are on average significantly more distant from the median voter than are majority governments. This descriptive fact holds across different estimation methods (manifesto-based or voter perception based) and times. Then, I draw on the previous literature on legislative bargaining and government formation (in general and in various contexts) to develop specific hypotheses about the influence of various legislative parties on the ideological position of governments. My analysis and various previous studies show evidence for all four bargaining hypotheses, but especially the weighted coalition parties, in the cases of majority governments. My analysis shows that minority governments are much less shaped by the median party and more by the largest party (where these are not the same) than are majority governments. However, research by Warwick 2011 on government program announcements and by Martin and Vanberg 2011, 2014 on committee modification of bills show no extra impact of the median party and nothing exceptional about minority situations. My analysis of the influence of formal support parties creating "formal" or "pseudo" minority governments that can count on formal outside parties for legislative majorities shows that these parties' influence pushes the governments toward and away from the median voter about equally often. Literature on minority governments from Strom 1990 and after emphasizes the wide range of different arrangements that can connect governments and the parties that enable them to sustain themselves and pass budgets and policies in minority situations. At least until we have more research or theory, the evidence better supports using the standard portfolio-weighted approach for "true" minority governments than any adjustment favoring a particular direction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2014