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This research note is prompted by a paper by Kashyap (Is prenatal sex selection associated with lower female child mortality? Population Studies 73(1): 57-78). Kashyap's paper, which provides 40 original estimates of missing female births, relies on an alternative definition of missing female births, leading to estimates of about half the magnitude of other estimates. There appears, therefore, a real need to take stock of the concept of missing female births widely used by statisticians around the world for assessing the demographic consequences of prenatal sex selection. This research note starts with a brief review of the history of the concept and the difference between Amartya Sen's original method and the alternative method found elsewhere to compute missing female births. We then put forward three different arguments (deterministic and probabilistic approaches, and consistency analysis) in support of the original computation procedure based on the number of observed male births and the expected sex ratio at birth.

IntroductionSkewed levels of the sex ratio at birth (SRB) due to sex-selective abortions have been observed in several countries since the 1970s. They will lead to long-term sex imbalances in more than one-third of the world’s population with yet unknown social and economic impacts on affected countries. Understanding the potential evolution of sex imbalances at birth is therefore essential for anticipating and planning for changing sex structures across the world.MethodsWe produced probabilistic SRB projections from 2021 to 2100 based on different scenarios of sex ratio transition and assessed their implications in terms of missing female births at global, regional and national levels. Based on a comprehensive SRB database with 3.26 billion birth records, we project the skewed SRB and missing female births with a Bayesian hierarchical time series mixture model. The SRB projections under reference scenario S1 assumed SRB transitions only for countries with strong statistical evidence of SRB inflation, and the more extreme scenario S2 assumed a sex ratio transition for countries at risk of SRB inflation but with no or limited evidence of ongoing inflation.ResultsUnder scenario S1, we projected 5.7 (95% uncertainty interval (1.2; 15.3)) million additional missing female births to occur by 2100. Countries affected will be those already affected in the past by imbalanced SRB, such as China and India. If all countries at risk of SRB inflation experience a sex ratio transition as in scenario S2, the projected missing female births increase to 22.1 (12.2; 39.8) million with a sizeable contribution of sub-Saharan Africa.ConclusionThe scenario-based projections provide important illustrations of the potential burden of future prenatal sex discrimination and the need to monitor SRBs in countries with son preference. Policy planning will be needed in the years to come to minimise future prenatal sex discrimination and its impact on social structures.

The absence of reliable registration of Covid-19 deaths in India has prevented the proper assessment and monitoring of coronavirus pandemic. India’s relatively young age structure tends to conceal the severity of Covid-19 mortality, which is concentrated in older age groups. In this paper, we present four different demographic samples of Indian populations for which we have information on both their demographic structures and death outcomes. We show that we can model the age gradient of Covid-19 mortality in India and use this modeling for estimating the level of Covid-19 mortality in the country. Our findings point to a death toll of about 2.2 million persons by late May 2021. Once India’s age structure is taken into account, these figures correspond to one of the most severe cases of Covid-19 mortality in the world.BackgroundIndia has recorded after February a second outbreak of coronavirus that has affected the entire country. The accuracy of official statistics of Covid-19 mortality has been called in question and the real number of Covid-19 deaths is thought to be several times higher than reported. In this paper, we assembled four independent population samples to model and estimate the level of Covid-19 mortality in India.MethodsWe first used a first population sample with age and sex of Covid-19 victims to develop a Gompertz model of Covid-19 mortality in India. We applied and adjusted this mortality model on two other national population samples after factoring in the demographic characteristics of these samples. We finally derive from one of these samples the most reasonable estimate of Covid-19 mortality level in India and confirm this result with the use of a fourth population sample.FindingsOur findings point to a death toll of about 2.2 million persons by late May 2021. This is the largest number of Covid-19 deaths in the world. Once standardized for its age and sex structure, India’s Covid-19 mortality rate is above that of Brazil or the USA.InterpretationOur analysis shows that existing population samples allow for an alternative estimation of deaths due to Covid-19 in India. The results confirm that only one out 7 Covid-19 deaths appear to be registered in India. The estimates point to a very Covid-19 mortality rate, which is even higher after age and sex standardization. The magnitude of the pandemic in India requires immediate attention and calls for a strong response based on a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions and the scale-up of vaccination to make them accessible to all, with an improved surveillance system to monitor the progression of the pandemic.

The growing number of series on COVID-19 deaths classified by age and sex, released by national health authorities, has allowed us to compute age and sex patterns of its mortality, based on 183,619 deaths from Western Europe and the USA. We highlight the specific age schedule of COVID-19 mortality and its pronounced excess male mortality and we then apply these COVID-19 death rates to world populations, in 2020. Our results underscore that considerable variations exist between world regions, as concerns the potential impact of COVID-19 mortality, because of their demographic structures. When compared to younger countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, the vulnerability to COVID-19 mortality is shown to be 17 times higher in several industrialized countries of East Asia and Europe. There is a high correlation (r2= .44) between demographic vulnerability to COVID-19 mortality and current COVID-19 death rates. Abstract COVID-19, mortality, age structures, death rates, Europe, USA. Background The data available on infection and death rates from COVID-19 have pointed to the elderly’s vulnerability to pandemics, especially elderly men. However, current models have not yet incorporated the growing volume of information on deaths by age and sex that is being released by statistical offices and health authorities. These newly available data allow us to examine the specific age and sex patterns of COVID-19 mortality and to estimate the impact of specific demographic structures on potential COVID-19 mortality worldwide. Methods We use the data available on May 15, 2020, from the nine countries with the largest series of deaths, disaggregated by age and sex: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, the UK, and the USA. Using 183,619 deaths (60.2% of all currently estimated COVID-19 deaths), we estimate the sex-specific death rates, by 5-year ranges, for two large death samples: USA and Western Europe. We compare these mortality rates with Gompertz models and with life tables of the world’s population, estimated by the United Nations. We apply these COVID-19 mortality rates by sex and 5-year group to the 2020 age and sex structures of world countries and regions, and obtain an index summarizing the relative magnitude of their potential vulnerability to COVID-19 mortality because of their demographic structures. Findings COVID-19 death rates cannot be computed below age 15. COVID-19 death rates from age 15–19 years to 90+ increase by a factor of 3 of every ten years, at a rate that is faster than general mortality. Male mortality from COVID-19 is systematically higher than female mortality, with a peak of excess male mortality occurring among 55-59-year-olds. Age and sex structures show considerable variations across countries, in terms of vulnerability to COVID-19 mortality. It transpires that the youngest countries in Central Africa are 17 times less vulnerable than aging countries, such as Japan. Interpretation Whereas the true intensity of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic remains underestimated by existing statistics, this unique mortality dataset shows that the regularity of the distribution of COVID deaths by age and sex is in line with the standard Gompertz mortality equation; thus confirming the quality of the first death samples and the unique age and sex patterns of COVID-19 mortality. COVID-19 death rates tend to be negligible below age 15 and cannot be used for analysis. The rate of progression of death rates by age is faster than that of general mortality. This feature places the elderly population in a particularly vulnerable situation compared to younger adults. Male excess mortality from COVID-19 also appears far more pronounced than in general mortality patterns, with men aged 40–59 years being almost 2.5 times more likely to die than women of the same age. Our analysis also points to considerable variations between world regions, as concerns the potential impact of COVID-19 mortality, because of their demographic structures. The COVID-19 structural vulnerability index ranges from .28 in Western or Middle Africa to 2.6 in Southern Europe. There is a high correlation between demographic vulnerability to COVID-19 mortality and current COVID-19 death rates (r2= .44 for 188 countries).

The sex ratio at birth (SRB) in India has been reported imbalanced since the 1970s. Previous studies have shown a great variation in the SRB across geographic locations in India till 2016. As one of the most populous countries and in view of its great regional heterogeneity, it is crucial to produce probabilistic projections for the SRB in India at state level for the purpose of population projection and policy planning. In this paper, we implement a Bayesian hierarchical time series model to project SRB in India by state. We generate SRB probabilistic projections from 2017 to 2030 for 29 States and Union Territories (UTs) in India, and present results in 21 States/UTs with data from the Sample Registration System. Our analysis takes into account two state-specific factors that contribute to sex-selective abortion and resulting sex imbalances at birth: intensity of son preference and fertility squeeze. We project that the largest contribution to female births deficits is in Uttar Pradesh, with cumulative number of missing female births projected to be 2.0 (95% credible interval [1.9; 2.2]) million from 2017 to 2030. The total female birth deficits during 2017-2030 for the whole India is projected to be 6.8 [6.6; 7.0] million.

Indonesia is usually viewed as a country free of the acute forms of gender discrimination observed elsewhere in East or South Asia, a situation often ascribed to Indonesia's bilateral kinship system. I re-examine this hypothesis by focusing on ethnic and regional variations in sex differentials. New indicators of marriage practices and gender bias derived from 2010 census microdata highlight the presence of patrilocal patterns as well as a distinct presence of son preference in fertility behaviour in many parts of the archipelago. I also present evidence for excessive child sex ratios and excess mortality of females in some areas that appear to be related to son preference and patrilocal residence systems. The findings confirm the association between son preference, sex differentials in mortality, prenatal sex selection, and kinship systems. I conclude with a more regional perspective on demographic vulnerability of females, distinguishing bilateral South East Asia from more patrilineal Melanesia.

Summary Background Excess female mortality causes half of the missing women (estimated deficit of women in countries with suspiciously low proportion of females in their population) today. Globally, most of these avoidable deaths of women occur during childhood in China and India. We aimed to estimate excess female under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) for India's 35 states and union territories and 640 districts. Methods Using the summary birth history method (or Brass method), we derived district-level estimates of U5MR by sex from 2011 census data. We used data from 46 countries with no evidence of gender bias for mortality to estimate the effects and intensity of excess female mortality at district level. We used a detailed spatial and statistical analysis to highlight the correlates of excess mortality at district level. Findings Excess female U5MR was 18·5 per 1000 livebirths (95% CI 13·1–22·6) in India 2000–2005, which corresponds to an estimated 239 000 excess deaths (169 000–293 000) per year. More than 90% of districts had excess female mortality, but the four largest states in northern India (Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh) accounted for two-thirds of India's total number. Low economic development, gender inequity, and high fertility were the main predictors of excess female mortality. Spatial analysis confirmed the strong spatial clustering of postnatal discrimination against girls in India. Interpretation The considerable effect of gender bias on mortality in India highlights the need for more proactive engagement with the issue of postnatal sex discrimination and a focus on the northern districts. Notably, these regions are not the same as those most affected by skewed sex ratio at birth. Funding None.

This article examines the relationship between birth masculinity and socio-economic levels in China. Both 2000 and 2005 data suggest the presence of a non-linear relationship between the sex ratio at birth and socio-economic status, with a lower sex ratio at birth observed among both the poorest and the richest households. This inverted-U pattern is significantly different from what is observed in India and what has been assumed previously for China. Multivariate analyses indicate that this pattern persists after the introduction of several other covariates of birth masculinity such as ethnicity, fertility, migration status, age or parity. These results suggest that further economic advances and socio-economic mobility could contribute to the return to normalcy of the sex ratio at birth.

This article adopts a comparative perspective to review the recent increase in the sex ratio at birth (SRB) across Asia. It first describes and compares the most recent birth statistics in Asia in order to identify commonalities in the gradual rise of SRBs observed from Armenia to South Korea. This comparison provides the basis for identifying specific transition patterns in the changes in SRBs. Their recent rise is then interpreted in a social and historical framework borrowed from fertility decline and based on three preconditions: access to sex-selection technology, preference for male births, and pressure from low fertility. On a broader plane, the process of growing imbalances in the sex composition of the population gives rise to a tragedy of the commons. This article indicates the factors that appear most likely to trigger a turnaround in this transitional demographic situation and to facilitate a return to biologically normal sex ratios in the future.

L’article propose d’examiner les determinants de la hausse contemporaine du rapport de masculinite parmi les enfants en Inde a la lumiere des donnees regionales. Les disparites marquees entre districts indiens, mises en evidence par la mesure de l’autocorrelation spatiale, sont en effet une cle pour comprendre cette evolution recente. Elles permettent notamment d’evaluer l’influence relative d’un grand nombre de caracteristiques sociales et economiques sur les variations interregionales du sex-ratio. On met en evidence l’effet propre de la prosperite economique qui apparait nettement correle a la hausse du rapport de masculinite. Une modelisation elargie de ces differences regionales, incorporant la dimension spatiale, permet en outre de demontrer le role specifique joue par la composition sociologique de la population, le developpement economique et les phenomenes de diffusion. La conclusion vise a offrir une interpretation de ces differents determinants de la masculinisation demographique en Inde.

Fertility decline in Asia is a story that has altered the world’s demography, and fertility decline in the three demographic giants has changed our perspective on long-term population prospects. During the 1950s, fertility levels were quite high in China, India and Indonesia, and their contribution to the overall population growth was preeminent since they accounted for 45 % of the total number of births in the world. But the onset of fertility decline after 1970 caused this proportion to decline and births in the three Asian countries amount nowadays only to 35 % of the world total. The proportion is predicted to continue to decline till the end of the century. This reduction in family size is indeed the major driver of the historical downturn in demographic growth rates recorded at the end of the twentieth century. This chapter provides an overview of regional fertility differentials and examines some of the implications of future fertility trajectories observed in China, India and Indonesia. China’s experience suggests a decline well below replacement level while India’s course of fertility decline stands indeed in marked contrast with China’s, since the decrease has long been far more moderate and somewhat immune to government pressure to accelerate its pace. Indonesia provides an even more complex scenario due to the current stalling of fertility decline.

This chapter provides a comparative picture of demographic change in China, India and Indonesia in a broader perspective and focuses on some of the major linkages and singularities across the three countries. It starts with a first section devoted to the state of demographic knowledge and sources in Asia, emphasizing the lead role played by national decennial censuses for monitoring population dynamics. The next section draws a broader picture of demographic growth in China, India and Indonesia and contrasts them with world trends. This analysis better illustrates the timing of the great demographic downturn around 1970 and points to the major difference between the three countries, and in particular to China’s unique trajectory. The third part of this chapter covers the profound mechanisms of recomposition of the population induced by change in the basic demographic parameters. This includes the age transition, changes in sex composition, educational expansion as well as population redistribution. Social and regional disaggregation is again crucial for our understanding of trends since the most urbanized parts of China, India and Indonesia tend to concentrate all features of modernity: signs of ultra-low fertility, reduced share of children, favorable dependency ratios, higher education, heavy migratory influx, and record population density. We end this chapter with a section discussing the role of policies in shaping population change in China, India and Indonesia over the last five decades.

Background: The rise of one-person households in Viet Nam remains poorly documented, in spite of its significant growth since the 1990s and its relevance to the understanding of social and demographic change. Objective: We aim to present a systematic analysis of the growing number of one-person households, interpret recent trends and describe the main characteristics of the population living alone. Methods: Our research is drawn from the 2009 census. Cross-tabulations are followed by regression analysis modelling of the probability of living alone. A cluster analysis identifies the profiles of people in one-person households. Finally an in-depth analysis of the most vulnerable type of one-person households is done. Results: Our analysis stresses the heterogeneity of the population living alone, in which we can identify four distinct profiles. The largest cluster is comprised of elderly widows and widowers. It arguably constitutes the most fragile population segment, as illustrated by several health and economic indicators. The second cluster comprises a more heterogeneous population, but only composed of persons who have not moved duringthe last five years. The third and fourth clusters are made up of migrants. Along with age, marital status tends to be the primary factor explaining the probability of a personliving alone in Viet Nam. However, the rise in one-person households may be as much related to the gradual changes in marital status, illustrated by delayed marriage, as to the increase in mobility and the relative weakening of traditional family patterns.

Sex-based discrimination has resulted in severe demographic imbalances between males and females, culminating in a large number of “missing women” in several countries around the world. We provide new estimates and projections of the number of missing females and of the roles played by prenatal and postnatal factors in this imbalance. We estimate time series of the number of missing females, the number of excess female deaths, and the number of missing female births for the world and selected countries. Estimates are provided for 1970–2010 and projections are made from 2010 to 2050. We show that the estimates of these different indicators are consistent with one another and account for the dynamics of the population of missing females over time. We conclude that the number of missing females has steadily risen in the past decades, reaching 126 million in 2010, and the number is expected to peak at 150 million in 2035. Excess mortality was the dominant cause of missing females in the past, and this is expected to remain the case in future decades in spite of the recent rise of prenatal sex selection. The annual number of newly missing females reached 3.4 million in 2010 and is expected to remain above 3 million every year until 2050.

The recent 50 years have been characterized by an increasing proportion of men in the world's population. In addition to excess female mortality, this rise has been caused by the emergence of prenatal sex selection in Asia and Eastern Europe and has resulted in millions of missing girls. Among all preconditions such as the rise in sex selection technology and the rapid decline of fertility, the preference for sons is at the core of this demographic masculinization and only when it dies out will sex ratio come back to normalcy.

Within the context of demographic heterogeneity this article seeks to update knowledge on fertility levels in India and to extend understanding of the mechanisms behind regional variations. The authors present the results of a new estimation procedure to reconstruct the Indian fertility transition and describe some of its spatial and statistical properties. Rather than test hypotheses on fertility-economy-society linkages through an econometric model the authors focus on the spatial structuring of reproductive behavior in India: fertility is examined as a regionalized variable that is a variable that is assumed to be spatially continuous. As their maps suggest and the geostatistical analysis demonstrates spatial variations of fertility in India are far from random a fact that has potentially significant implications for the interpretation of fertility decline. Specifically the authors suggest that preoccupation with the effect on fertility of factors that are poorly correlated with spatial location such as family planning campaigns or structural transformations of the economy may have concealed the progression of fertility change through diffusion processes at the microlevel. (excerpt modified)

This paper is based on fieldwork done in 1992–93 in the Senegal River valley, a Sahelian region characterised by heavy out-migration for more than thirty years. As a result of this long history of human displacement, migration has now become a local institution of its own. More recently, the introduction of irrigation in an otherwise drought-prone area seems to have reduced the intensity of the phenomenon, but the momentum gathered by the local institution of migration means that the decrease of migration rates is likely to be very slow. The present analysis borrows some of its basic concepts from the new institutional economics and should therefore be seen as an illustration of how this perspective, quite effective in describing the complexity of social exchanges in rural societies, helps explain various determinants of migration. We will show, for example, that the two types of migration observed (short-term and long-term) respond similarly to common structural and family conditions, and appear to diffe...

The author studies the demographic transition that occurred between 1870 and 1960 in the Tamil-speaking areas of south India which make up the modern state of Tamil Nadu. Data are from official sources including the census. (ANNOTATION)

INTRODUCTION: Since the 1980s, sex ratio at birth (male births per 100 female births) has increased in many Asian countries as a result of selective abortions, but to date there has been no such evidence for Viet Nam. Our aim in this paper is to ascertain the situation with respect to sex ratio at birth in Viet Nam over the past five years. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Original data were obtained from sample population surveys in Viet Nam recording annual birth rates since 2000 of about 450,000 women, as well as from two successive birth surveys conducted for the first time in 2007 (1.1 million births). The annual population surveys include specific information on birth history and mothers' characteristics to be used for the analysis of trends and differentials in sex ratio at birth. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Birth history statistics indicate that the SRB in Viet Nam has recorded a steady growth since 2001. Starting from a level probably close to the biological standard of 105, the SRB reached 108 in 2005 and 112 in 2006, a value significantly above the normal level. An independent confirmation of these results comes from the surveys of births in health facilities which yielded a SRB of 110 in 2006-07. High SRB is linked to various factors such as access to modern health care, number of prenatal visits, level of higher education and employment status, young age, province of residence and prenatal sex determination. These results suggest that prenatal sex determination followed by selective abortion has recently become more common in Viet Nam. This recent trend is a consequence of various factors such as preference for sons, declining fertility, easy access to abortion, economic development as well as the increased availability of ultrasonography facilities.

The masculinization of births is a recent phenomenon resulting from prenatal sex selection. This paper reviews recent research on imbalances in the sex ratio at birth and the corresponding mechanisms, determinants and future implications. The mechanisms affecting the sex ratio at birth are reviewed, with an emphasis on factors relating to sex discrimination. The figures available provide an overall picture of skewed sex ratios since the 1980s in Asian and Eastern European countries. Large differences in the male surplus are also observed across birth orders, region and social group, owing above all to the conjunction of three phenomena: a preference for male children inherited from socio-familial systems, the emergence of assisted reproductive technology enabling prenatal sex selection, and a decrease in fertility that heightens the risk of not having a son. Recent research has analysed the demographic consequences of the masculinization of births on the future composition of the population and explored how social systems may adjust to these imbalances, with political responses to prenatal discrimination still proving relatively ineffective. The paper also reviews some of the main future research avenues.

Counts and Accounts Demographic Institutions in Colonial South India. The old demographic institutions with their apparently deficient functioning call for two different explanatory procedures : listing all their distortions in order to criticize the data they produced and denouncing the hidden political agenda behind the "objective" data collection. Regardless of approach the figures will always appear deceptive or fraudulent. The goal of this paper is to understand the cycle of statistical production as it ope rated in colonial Tamil India. Contrary to the claims of historical and statistical criticism, the data collected reveal great deal about the indigenous population. And it is wrong to presume that the people passively submitted to the idle curiosity of an eccentric government without leaving any meaningful collective imprint on the raw demographic data. My contention is that the process of demographic observation has to be considered as the site of intense social and cultural negotiations that prefigured experiences and expectations of all the actors involved., Guilmoto Christophe Z. Chiffrage et déchiffrage : les institutions démographiques dans l'Inde du Sud coloniale. In: Annales. Économies, Sociétés, Civilisations. 47ᵉ année, N. 4-5, 1992. pp. 815-840.